Walk-Off Talk 1.9: The 2018 Bullpen

(Every now and then, we hold informal discussions on something related to the Braves. Today, Ryan Cothran and me, Tommy Poe, look at the bullpen in 2018.)

Ryan,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like the Atlanta Braves won’t make the playoffs this season. And while it’s fun to talk about prospects like Kevin Maitan and Joey Wentz, there will be a major league season in 2018 and the Braves need to build a roster for it. On that roster, there will be a bullpen. So, let’s take a look at what that pen might look like.

Before we start, I have to admit something. For two consecutive years, I was sure the bullpen would be a strength and I was wrong. But I can’t be wrong three consecutive times, can I? 2018 has to be the year it all comes together, right?

To help answer that question, I want to look at where the bullpen is now and what the makeup might look like in 2018. We’ll cover some of the guys we want the Braves to keep, some of them that need to be moved, some of the guys coming up from the farm system, and any specific guys we would like the Braves to target in the free agent market or via trade. I’ll start.

 Vizcaino | By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I think the pen is a dicey position myself. It has a bullpen FIP that has often hovered around 5.00 since the All-Star Break (down to 4.61 now) and while we can blame Jim Johnson for much of that, others also struggled. Even some of the guys that have been so successful are players I'm not so sure I want to rely on moving forward. Jose Ramirez has a 2-run difference between his ERA and FIP and his xFIP is even higher. Can we really count on hitters becoming outs 8-of-10 times they put the ball in play moving forward as has happened for Ramirez this year (.209 BABIP)? Can we really count on Sam Freeman doing the thing he never did before - get left-hand major league hitters out - in 2018? Can we really count on Dan Winkler's arm not falling off from just signing an autograph?

It’s clear that I have my worries about this bullpen in 2018. That said, there are a few names that demand excitement. A.J. Minter has arrived and as long as he's healthy, he's probably the most dominant reliever the Braves have. Akeel Morris's incredible changeup will be in the mix as well - if the Braves remember he's in the organization. Arodys Vizcaino continues to impress, though he’s given up a few too many homers. Still, I’ll take him compared to others. Later, I'll talk about the two or three guys I really like coming up from the minors as well.

Generally, I'm seeing a bullpen that could go either way. Guys like Matt Wisler and Luke Jackson could finally get it. Winkler could stay healthy. Ramirez could continue to battle - and defeat - the SABR Gods. At the same time, there is a probably a better chance none of those things happen. So...that's a downer.

Here’s how I currently fall on things:
Keeping: Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, Winkler (I do like the arm)
Trading: Ramirez and Freeman - if there’s anything decent out there.
Keeping, but on thin ice: Wisler, Jackson, Hursh - next spring is their last chance.
Gone: Johnson (trade, DFA, pretend he’s Akeel Morris and lose him, whatever it takes), Krol, Motte, Brothers

I got the four I am comfortable moving into 2018 with, the three who I will give the last chance to (plus, they have no trade value), and a couple I’ll trade if there’s a good deal out there. I’m dropping veterans like it’s hot. Regardless, this pen needs plenty of work. What do you guys think? Am I wrong to be this pessimistic? Or am I seeing it way too clearly?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hey, Tommy!

Super-excited to be doing another Walk-Off Talk, especially one concerning the bullpen as I have a whole heck of a lot to say on the matter. First and foremost, I’ll say that I think we as Braves fans finally see the bullpen turn the corner in 2018.  There’s fruit that is blossoming in front of our eyes, young men becoming staples in the ‘pen, old dudes getting squeezed out, and fringe guys looking bloody awful and naturally being pushed out of roles.  While that all doesn’t sound good, there’s much research and evidence that shows you have to fail before succeeding.  We’re there.

In the 1st section, I’m going to look at the guys that we’ve seen in 2017 1 by 1, try to find underlying reasons for their success or failures, and decipher whether I think they have a shot at the 2018 bullpen.  Ready? Here we go! Who’s a KEEPER? Who’s a HEAPER?

1. Jose Ramirez- KEEPER. 2.28 ERA through 59.1 innings. Like Jason Motte’s early “success” this year in which he was getting roped but the ball was hit right at fielders, ERA can be a fluke stat, especially when we’re talking relievers and 1-2 inning stints at a time. With Motte, every person watching could see it was only a matter of time before it blew up in his face. The day it blew up on him was our beloved country’s birthday and since then he’s had a 9.28 ERA. This brings us to Jose Ramirez.  Like Tommy mentioned above, there’s a lot that’s went right for Jose this year: low BABIP, high LOB%, but there’s also a decrease in hard-contact as soft and medium contact make up for about 70% of the total while hard comes in at 32.3% - a serious decrease from previous years. It’s also worth noting that his groundball rate has increased significantly which, when adding in that his soft/medium contact rate has increased, bodes well for long-term success. Lastly,  Jose’s had an increase in velocity as his average fastball is 97.3, when it was previously 95ish. It’s appropriate to taper expectations for Jose as asking him to duplicate his 2.28 ERA is wish-casting, but increased velo, softer contact, and the ability to keep more balls on the ground makes me think Jose can be a mid-3s ERA in 2018.
2. Jim Johnson- KEEPER. This is tough. I don’t want to see Jim Johnson in a Braves uniform in 2018, but the reality is that it’s not that easy. He’s owed 5MM and the Braves at least need to give him a shot to rebound before throwing in the towel. Give him April in low-leverage situations and let’s see if he can make that sinker sink again - otherwise, his career will be the thing sinking.
3. Arodys Vizcaino- KEEPER. While not as extreme, Vizzy has also benefited from a low BABIP and a high-strand rate, but unlike Jose he’s kept his BB-rate low and his K-rate above 9. He might not be able to sustain a sub-3 ERA yearly, but if I were betting on anyone to do so in 2018, he’d be there.
4. Sam Freeman- KEEPER. The surprise of the bullpen in 2017, there’s not much fluke in Sam’s stat line as everything seems pretty normal. His fastball/slider combo has been downright filthy and he’s under control for 3 more years. No reason not to bring him back.
5. Ian Krol- HEAPER. I’d like to believe that Ian Krol’s mishaps are all bad luck, but it’s just not true. The pitch that made him valuable last year (fastball) has stayed up in the zone this year and has gotten crushed. His K-rate has dropped, BB-rate increased, and there are at least 2 LHPs in front of him in the pecking order. He’d also be entering his 2nd year in arbitration and the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.
6. Luke Jackson- HEAPER. Really, there’s not much to like here. He’s got a pedestrian fastball that has velocity and that’s it.  Luke’s got a lot to figure out in AAA before he even becomes an average MLB reliever.
7. Rex Brothers- HEAPER. Was super excited to see Rex signed this offseason as I’d pined for it. However, it’s just not worked out. His advanced metrics show he’s been really unlucky and hopefully, he can turn it around this last month. For now, like Krol, there’s just more effective LH options available. Like Krol, hopefully, the Braves can trade Rex for something of semi-value.
8. Matt Wisler- HEAPER. For the 3rd year in a row, Wisler just isn’t missing bats. And really, it goes beyond that as he hasn’t missed bats since 2013, which was the last time his ERA was below 4. I don’t know what there is to figure out at AAA and maybe a change of scenery is needed.
9. Jason Hursh- HEAPER.There was this one outing where Hursh was running it up to 96 and pitches were darting every which way. Aside from that, it was a step back year for the former 1st rounder. Like Wisler, his best opportunity might come in another organization.
10. Akeel Morris- KEEPER. Must be the black sheep of the Braves 40-man roster as that is the only reason I see for him to not be in the bigs right now. Good K-rate, walks are coming down, and his 2-pitch mix looks pretty doggone good.
11. Daniel Winkler- KEEPER. In my opinion, this dude’s stuff is downright filthy.  I’ve wondered aloud whether Braves will keep him around due to injury, but if they do, I think he can be a serious 1-inning force.
12. A.J. Minter- KEEPER. We are getting a taste of what he can do now and it’s delicious. A serious powerhouse lefty that’s capable of throwing high-leverage innings to any hitter.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan,

We mentioned a few names that came up from the minors this season and, as you said, will probably be keepers in 2018. Of course, I’m speaking of Minter and Morris - if he ever apologizes for whatever great offense he did to the Braves front office. Seriously, do as I do with my wife, Akeel. Make your apology sound super sincere even when you have no idea why they are mad. And maybe break down and watch Empire with The Holy John Trinity. Perhaps that last thing only helps with my wife, but it’s worth a shot.

Who might join Minter and Morris next season as young arms arriving in the bigs? Let me preface this by saying that I would love to include Kyle Kinman in this group, but coming off Tommy John surgery, I think that’s wishful thinking. Also, nobody knows where they put Armando Rivero so until we find him (I’ll check the couch), there’s no real reason to include him in this discussion.

Clouse | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

One name that pops out immediately is Corbin Clouse. He logged 41 games between Florida and Mississippi this year, finished with the fourth most strikeouts in the system from those pitchers who didn't start a game, and hitters struggle to get the ball elevated against him due to a heavy 91-93 mph sinker and a wipeout slider. I'm sure this is going to be a common theme with these young arms, but in reference to Clouse, his control can waver from time-to-time. That said, when he's on with his delivery and follow-through, he's a nasty guy to deal with on the mound. Low-end projection, he'll be a left-hand specialist. But I think his stuff plays up to the righties as well. I think he could be a left-handed and maybe a little less effective version of the Tigers' Shane Greene.

Another arm that started in Florida only to finish the season in Mississippi was Devan Watts. Similar story to Clouse, except he's right-handed and has flashed very good control. Same sinker/slider combo, but with a bit more velocity and holy crap, does his sinker move. I've also seen a changeup out of him, though I'm not sure if it'll play in the majors. The Braves are downright scary with how they uncover these small college arms (Tusculum College alum) and develop them into relief prospects. He checks all the boxes you are looking for and should be in the mix come spring training.

Phil Pfeifer, unlike Clouse and Watts, has logged some time in Triple-A. He has a more prototypical heater, though this velocity won't blow you away. He'll mix in a changeup and a late breaking power curve. Sometimes, especially against right-handers, he'll slow the curve down to give the hitter something else to look at as it drops in a more traditional loopy fashion. Picked up from the Dodgers last year, it all boils down to control for the southpaw. He's quick through his delivery and gets a lot of movement on his pitches, though I sometimes feel like he's trying to get through his delivery way too fast and would be better off slowing things down a touch. Either way, there's a lot to like, but you can't walk 16% of hitters in the majors and be an effective reliever.

Finally, I have to mention the guy who came over with Luiz Gohara - Thomas Burrows. The Braves were super cautious with the former Alabama closer (Tide Roll! - right?), but I imagine the dude will be on the quick track next year after spending his Age-22 season in Rome. He struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, got a heavy dose of grounders, and kept the walks to the minimal. Do I think he'll jump from low-A to the majors this spring? No, but could he be in the mix by midseason? Oh, absolutely. He's tried-and-tested in the SEC and has continued his success into pro baseball. And have I mentioned that he's another sinker/slider pitcher. Seriously, with all these sinker/slider guys, we should have never let Roger McDowell go. He'd be giddy with this crop of relievers. Oh, well.

I know there are more arms I haven't mentioned here. Why don't you point them out, Ryan?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I will do just that, Tommy! But might I say that of the guys you mentioned above, Devan Watts really tickles my fancy.  Some twitter guys had his velo up to 98 at the end of this year. Add to that a low-BB rate, high-K rate, and a 2nd pitch in a slider that varies in MPH and is more of a plus pitch than his fastball, and you’ve essentially got what the Braves wanted out of Shae Simmons without the arm injury history. I’m all-in on THAT!

But enough about you and your guys! What do you think this is, the Tommy show?  I want to talk about my dudes!  Ready?

Jacob Lindgren (LHP)- In this section, Lindgren, in my opinion, is by far the guy to be most excited about.  But keep your pants on, Braves fans.  He went under the knife last year with Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch.  Stolen from the Yankees, Benjamin Chase compares Lindgren’s fastball and slider to Jonny Venters, and from all the video I’ve watched, it’s on the money. Unfortunately, the pitch that likely aided in the injury is Lindgren’s calling card: a slider that simply disappears on hitters. Keep an eye on Lindgren this winter as the Braves could send him somewhere to get some innings in January, but more likely would be a return to action in Spring Training for an Opening Day audition.

Wes Parsons (RHP)- Wes has been in the organization since 2013 and at one point was a top-10 prospect in a very weak system. Now that the Braves have the best farm in the Majors, Parsons has been a bit of an afterthought as he’s been moved full-time to the bullpen. However, it seems to have done him a whole lot of good, revitalizing what seemed to be a dead career as a starting pitcher. Parsons has added a couple MPHs (tops out at 96) to his fastball and rebounded to a 3.15 ERA across 2 levels with healthy. For me though, I’d file him under the same headline as failed starting pitchers turned fringe MLB relievers with Matt Wisler and Jason Hursh. Parsons has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, even if it’s just a sliver of hope.

 Biddle | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle (LHP)- Before Lindgren, there was Biddle. Claimed from the Pirates prior to the 2016 season, Biddle was another guy that the Braves got for nothing due to recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Pirates tried to sneak him through waivers. In his first year of on-field action with the Braves, Biddle worked exclusively out of the bullpen and put up good numbers through 49.2 innings at AA. The BB-rate was below 3 per 9, the K-rate was above a K per inning, and the ERA sub-3. What’s bizarre is the fact that he’s on the 40-man and yet the front office didn’t bring him up for a cup of coffee. There are some undertones in this statement and maybe none of these are correct but I think Braves either don’t see him as a real piece, want to limit his innings, or dislike something in his demeanor. He seems like he could be a useful Major Leaguer and hopefully, he gets his shot next spring.

Caleb Dirks (RHP)-  Dirks was in the Braves system, traded to the Dodgers, and reacquired last year. Dirks is known for his deception as both video and scouting reports show jerky movements before delivering the ball, which has Benjamin Chase comping him to Jordan Walden. The problem is that is where the comp ends. He doesn’t have electric stuff, nor does he have electric velocity. In my opinion, there’d have to be a whole lot go right for him and wrong for others for Dirks to get a shot in the Braves bullpen. Like many fringe guys, his best path to the bigs will likely be outside this pitching-heavy system.

-------------------------------------------

Love “The Strikeout Machine.” Lindgren and Minter together are going to be hell on the opposition - especially the poor left-handed hitters they leave in their destruction.

Moving on, let’s talk about a couple of guys that might benefit from a switch. Specifically, Mike Foltynewicz and Lucas Sims. I’m glad I can address this subject again because Stephen stole my thunder awhile back with his column on Folty from the beginning of August and I want it back. He pointed out something that many Braves fans rather disagreed with, but that I have had a sinking feeling would be the inevitable conclusion on Folty. Simply put, he's miscast as a starter. That isn't to denigrate Foltynewicz, but over more than 350 innings, we have witnessed a few things about Folty that seem impossible to disagree with. One, he's got lethal stuff. Second, he's in stagnation since joining the Braves. He's improved, sure, but only incrementally. To put it another way, he's gone from a bad rookie pitcher to a mediocre third-year starter. And sure, we can sit here and condition this by saying Folty is really in his first full season as a major league pitcher after spending ten starts in the minors in 2015 and working his way back from injury last year, but that excuse only gets us so far.

It's not that Folty isn't useful in his current role - only that he's not best suited to be a starter. I was doing a Saturday Stats Pack less than a week before Stephen's article where I pointed out that since 2015, only two pitchers (the washed up version of Adam Wainwright and the journeyman Jeremy Hellickson) had higher line-drive rates against them. Line drives turn into hits nearly 70% of the time and many of them also become extra bases. Some, you can argue some of this is due to the fact that Foltynewicz has thrown his fastball nearly 65% of the time and it's a hard fastball. Fair enough, but even the most optimistic fan has to be worried about that line drive rate.

Foltynewicz simply doesn't have the offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. Once they time his fastball, they don't have to worry about being fooled by a changeup. They can then sit dead red and react to the slider and curve, which both are better since his rookie year, but both suffer from repeated viewings of the pitch. Further, as Stephen said a month ago, Folty has never been able to get out lefties. Perhaps if they didn't see him multiple times in the same game - and he was given a chance to unleash his heater at full strength with either of his breaking balls - Foltynewicz could have more luck.

I know it's unpopular, but in my book, it's time to embrace the inevitable here and turn Folty into the Braves' version of Chris Devenski. Like Folty, Devenski has amazing stuff and he's given the opportunity to unleash it without the fear that he needs to hold back for the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings. Moving Folty to the bullpen could hurt a rotation that appears wide open already, but a sign of good management is put your player in the best position to succeed. With Folty, I believe that he'll succeed the most coming out of the bullpen.

On the flip side, Lucas Sims has always had an arm scouts raved about, but the results haven’t been equally as impressive. He seemed to take a step forward this season with the lowest walk rate of his career in his second try at answering the Triple-A question, but also threw a lot of grooved fastballs that were hammered to deep Estonia. The strikeouts were there, but like we've seen with Sims, it was two steps forward, another step back. His first taste of the majors as a starter has been Matt Wisler-like. He's still avoiding the walks, which plagued him the last two years, but he's looked exceedingly meh. If that's possible.

One of the thing that stands out to me the most about Sims so far has been the inability to induce a swing-and-a-miss. The major league average is 10.3%. Sims, as a starter, had a 7.8% swinging-strike percentage. Hitters are making too much contact and those balls are screaming around the park.

The Braves have already announced that Sims will work out of the bullpen for the rest of the season and that might be for the best moving forward. We haven't seen a lot of Sims just as as a reliever, but the early returns are promising. Sims doesn't have the same kind of electric stuff as Foltynewicz does, but he does have lively movement on his pitches when he can repeat his delivery and arm slot - something that is easier said than done with him. Don't believe me? Check this out:

If he cleans that up, his fastball location should be better. Because his curveball is so good, he only needs to be able to locate his fastball and good things will come. In my opinion, that will come in shorter stints - the kind of appearances he had in the Arizona Fall League last year when he reestablished his value.

----------------------------------------

Kudos on that, Tommy! I think we all at Walkoff Walk can agree that Folty would be better served to unleash all that holds him back 1 inning at a time. Could you imagine a bullpen that featured Folty coming in throwing triple digit heat? I need to see more at the MLB level on Sims, but I have a hard time distinguishing between what he brings and what Matt Wisler brings. At one point, I thought Wisler could be a stud bullpen piece with a couple of ticks in added velo. Now, not so sure. Hopefully, you’re right and Sims will take to a role in the bullpen.

But now that we are done with the in-house guys, it looks like we have enough candidates to make a pretty good bullpen. However, we all know that if a team starts the year with 15 candidates, they’ll be looking for more come April. So, is there anyone out there on the free agent market that could prove valuable in a 2018 Braves bullpen?  You bet there are and I want to take a look at some of those options.

With Minter, Clouse, S. Freeman, Lindgren, and Biddle, I think the Braves have the LH relievers in-house that they need, but there’s a few free agent RH that I’d like to see the Braves go after for 2018, but before that, let’s make a mental note: I think there’s a really big chance Craig Kimbrel comes home for the 2018 season, therefore the guys I’m looking at aren’t the top-tier, but right below that. Also, it’s worth noting that the guys I’m looking at carry a low-BB rate which is very much needed in a bullpen chock full of young, wild electric arms.

Anthony Swarzak- Fastball has picked up velo and has been downright dominant this year.  Having the best year of his career and a good time to do it.
Addison Reed- In a walk year, Addison Reed is pitching well for the 3rd consecutive year and inducing ground balls at a 40% rate.

The bad contract swap route?

A while back, I posted a waiver trade idea between the Braves and Orioles in which the Orioles brought home Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson. With Johnson tanking, I think that deal as it was is dead and gone.  But Markakis? That could still be something the Orioles are interested in this coming offseason. But maybe the Braves can knock off most of Jim’s contract and send him to them? Here’s the proposal:

Braves get Darren O’Day
Orioles get Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM dollars

O’Day has rebounded from his atrocious start in which his ERA approached 7 close to the midway point. Now, it’s a respectable 3.86. Still, he’s owed 18MM through 2019 and the Orioles could look at this as a peace offering to their fan base to start their rebuild. They’ll clear all of O’Day’s 2019 salary and pay JJ and Kakes 13MM for 2018.

The Day I Evacuated...on the Braves

August 19, 2005, Port Sulphur, Louisiana. I was a week into my 27th round trip around the sun, and 2 weeks into the biggest purchase of my life: an engagement ring for my girlfriend of 4.5 years, Anna.

Port Sulphur, a little fishing community located at the "sock protruding from the boot's toe of Louisiana", was my new challenge in the educational world. It was my 2nd year teaching there, my 5th overall, and seeing that culture was one of many life-changing events that had occurred in my life up to that point, but Hurricane Katrina tapped me on the shoulder and said, "Hold my beer".

Like the stem of a leaf, Belle Chasse Highway is the one way in and the one way out of Plaquemines Parish. Port Sulphur is located about 45 minutes down that road, and if you continue down that desolate highway you'll reach some of the best fishing in the world, then will eventually come to the Gulf of Mexico. When you get there, I suggest stopping unless you've got a car that's much cooler than mine.

The buzz throughout the teacher's lounge was nonchalant. The people of Plaquemines had been threatened time out of mind from nature and their guard had been stored away like yesterday's technology. There was one guy that was on high-alert...but he was always on high-alert. For the sake of anonymity, let's call him Mr. K. He was a heck of a fellow, but was a bit of a worry-wart on all things weather-related, but he had leveled-up his worry for this storm.

Mid-day Friday was when Mr. K started losing hair, and at that point, no one was expecting the then Category 3 storm to come near New Orleans, rather terrorize the Panhandle once again (Ivan hit in 2004 and Dennis hit earlier that year). Of course,  people were telling Mr. K to "get out of town" with his worry and he was advising them the same. On the way home that day, I drove the hour back with a bit of worrisome energy as my co-worker and I discussed our evacuation plans. In short...we had none.

But when we arrived home, it was a different story. The Weather Channel's report of Hurricane Katrina's track had changed...drastically. In 6 hours since the last projection, the storm had shifted it's path 175 miles west and the eye of the hurricane? Projected to hit dead center of Plaquemines Parish.

Ok, Katrina. You've got my attention.

Anna and I were by no means locals quite yet only spending 4 years in the city and we weren't taking any chances. Friday night, we packed a small bag and headed to my parents' house in northern Alabama on Saturday's first light. Most of our friends did not take heed of the new path and had a hurricane party Friday night, of which they regretted for the next 48 hours as that's how long it took them to get to Houston.

Katrina changed my life. The recently purchased ring was in mail limbo and not recovered until November. Anna, who has just been accepted to Law School, spent her 1st semester in Houston. Nearly every one of my friends had homes partially or completely destroyed. And Plaquemines Parish? The south end was 30 feet under water and the school was just a shell and pile of rubble.  Entire houses (and not of the trailer variety) had been lifted and planted dead center down the highway like something portrayed in a post-apocalyptic novel.

When school started back in October, the entire teaching community of Plaquemines Parish was moved to 1 school at the north end, and I taught a 4th grade crew self-coined "The Refugee Class". That year, we laughed, cried, and most importantly, loved the heck out of each other. It was the hardest and most fulfilling year of my life.

Now fast-forward 12 years....

Another hurricane is threatening the Gulf Coast. And while the turn wasn't immediate, over the course of 48 hours, Irma turned its projected path 125 miles west, from the east coast of Florida to hugging the west coast and predicting torment to the entire state. It was too much for me and eerily reminiscent of Katrina's turn. Anna and I once again packed up, but with 2 year old Murphy Jo and our trusty 4-legged companion "The Dude" in-tow, and headed north to Georgia.

As I was not in a good state of mind, it didn't dawn on me that the Braves were at home until mid-evacuation. Then I recalled that the Braves were giving out free tickets to Florida residents fleeing the storm. And lastly, greeted with a beer from my brother-in-law, upon arrival, and 1 phone call later, I had made my plans to venture to Suntrust Park for Sunday's matinee. Now to get my tickets...

Since it was my uncle and cousin that planned to go to the game with me, I couldn't go full refugee plan as they are both Georgians, so I reached out on Twitter to see if any season ticket holders were not using tickets on Sunday that I could purchase for a discounted rate. Within minutes, Front Row Seats had reached out and said they'd hook me up. And hook me up they did! By happenstance, my uncle and cousin cancelled and it ended up being 2 refugees and 2 people housing refugees.

It was an entertaining game. A tug of war of sorts that was tied 5-5. Enter Jose Ramirez for the 8th. I knew deep down that Jose was due to give up a few runs at some point as his extremely low BABIP against just wasn't sustainable, then....dinger. Dee Gordon of all people laced one into the right field stands. But still, it's 6-5 and the Braves of 2017, if nothing else, are late-inning fighters. Bottom 8, nothing doing for the Braves so we're headed to the 9th and it's...

Matt Wisler. Matt frickin' Wisler is coming on to pitch a contest in the top of the 9th when the Braves are down 1. It was too much for me. Too much for a guy that studies probabilities of baseball related activities. Before I could even tweet my distaste of Brian Snitker, Wisler had already given up 2 runs.

My mind: Braves are going to lose this game. I'm going to get caught in traffic and be late for our dinner reservation. We need to leave. So what did I do?

I evacuated.

You guys know the rest of the story. Braves score 3 in the bottom of the 9th and win it with a walk-off HR from Lane Adams in the 11th, whom I've really come to enjoy this season.

Like Katrina, sometimes we can't appreciate what we have when it's right in front of our face, until we are forced to leave it.

But unlike Katrina, I was in one of my favorite places on earth, watching my favorite team, with my favorite person in the world, and I let a silly thing like probable outcome come in the way of that enjoyment. There was no excuse for this evacuation. Sometimes we think we know so much about something that we lose the value of that thing we love and things like probability get in the way of enjoying a game for the sake of the game.

I'm proud of the Ryan from 2005 for being so strong in a time where crisis was omnipresent and ashamed of the Ryan from 2 days ago who forgot what was really important in life.

But today's Ryan is still a work in progress and, no matter the outcome, he will always say...

Go Braves!

The Logic Behind Trading Ender Inciarte

As Ronald Acuna spent the last 18 months destroying minor league baseball, there’s obviously been plenty of discussion of how and when he’s going to make his debut in Atlanta. 

The "when" has basically been answered as he almost certainly will be up at some point in 2018, with opening day being a real possibility. The "how" is a little more complicated, however, as the Braves have three full-time outfielders under contract for 2018, with the two most likely candidates to be replaced also being the two most expensive and difficult to move. It’s been my assumption all along, and still is, that Atlanta would find a trade partner for NickMarkakis, pay down however much of the contract is necessary, and open up RF for their number one prospect.

But there is another option that at least needs to be considered. 

The other day in his weekly chat, ESPN prospect analyst Keith Law gave this answer in response to a question on the subject:

It should be noted that while Law is very connected within the game of baseball and specifically with the Atlanta Braves, this response seems to be his opinion of what should happen and not necessarily something he’s heard will happen from a source.

But that’s quite an opinion. Trade Ender Inciarte. Braves’ country reacted exactly how you would expect calling the suggestion ridiculous and stupid with many offering the same insults to Law himself. Neither of those things are true, but I’ll admit even my reaction to this idea was negative at first. “Braves don’t have enough good players as it is, how can they think about trading one away…” was my exact response, and while I still wouldn’t do it, it has more merit than may first appear.

Wiki Commons

First of all, regardless of whether you move Acuna to RF or if you move Ender, you’re giving up potential value somewhere. Both guys are true center fielders and while there is value in playing great defense in RF, it’s a step down from the value you get from elite CF defense. I’ve seen people argue against this idea by saying Kemp-Ender-Acuna is way better than Kemp-Acuna-Markakis and while that specific statement is true, it’s actually not the question at hand. What you’re actually weighing is Kemp-Ender-Acuna vs Kemp-Acuna-Markakis and whatever you get in return for Ender in a trade. Theoretically, the value Inciarte brings to Atlanta as a CF can be extracted out via trade which you can add to another part of the team and would be greater than the diminishing value you’d have by moving one of the CFs to RF. The economic term for this, as Law mentioned, is a surplus. This idea only works, of course, if you're getting equal or greater value back in return for Ender so one thing Atlanta has no business doing is trading him for salary relief. Clearing bad contracts off the books is something the team will have to address at some point but using your valuable assets to facilitate such a move is a terrible idea. That's how Craig Kimbrel trades happen. No, it has to be talent for talent to make any sense. And regardless of your personal feelings toward Inciarte, it’s a valid argument.

But that isn’t the only argument. There’s another variable to trading Inciarte that has nothing to do with Ronald Acuna. Ender is an outfielder who derives just about all his value from defense. Ender was also a late bloomer in baseball and because of that he starts next year already 27-years-old. Those two facts combined have significance.  As we’ve learned more and more about defensive value and metrics over the last few years, one truth discovered is defense is a young man’s game. Especially outfield defense. The first things to go as players age is their legs, speed, and range and given that, it’s not hard to understand why outfield defense ages so poorly.

And in Ender’s case this is especially significant because he doesn’t have the bat to supplement that value. Inciarte’s wRC+ sits at 100 this year and at 96 for his career. That’s what he is, right at a league average hitter. Combine that with elite CF defense and you have a 3-4 WAR player. Take away that defensive value and you have Nick Markakis. Now at 27, Ender is in no threat of losing his defensive value next year, or probably the year after that. But the year after that? Maybe. And that’s most likely when Atlanta’s contention window will just be opening. And having one of your best players declining as you begin winning isn’t great planning. So this is an idea that has to at least be considered.

This is all very unlikely, of course, as I don’t think they'll do it and like I said at the top, I’m not even at the point where I think they should do it. But if a team looking to win a World Series in the next couple of years offered a serious package of prospects, and considering all the other factors, I seriously consider pulling the trigger.

Should the Braves Consider Moving Teheran?

Julio Teheran looked like the unquestioned ace of the Big Four pitching prospects the Braves once had churning in the minor leagues. Along with Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino, Teheran was part of a group that would hopefully anchor the Braves rotation for much of the 2010's. Of course, here we are in 2017 and only Teheran remains as a starter, let alone in the Braves staff. And some might argue that we've reached the point where even that needs to change

Such commentary has pushed other Braves fans in a different direction. While more focused on a different pitcher, a frustrated Aaron Kirby remarked on Twitter this morning, "In fact, Julio and Folty have pretty similar stats this season. When are we moving Julio to the pen?" This refers to a common refrain from Braves fans - including ones at this blog - that Mike Foltynewicz profiles better as a reliever. But Kirby rightfully points out that both the flame-throwing right-hander and Teheran share many of the same issues. Why does one get talked about moving to the bullpen and the other doesn't? I would say for a variety of reasons, but the biggest is perception. People have long felt Folty's stuff was better suited for the bullpen. Nobody held the same regard for Teheran, who was considered a potential front-of-the-rotation arm.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

But five years into his career, is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now rather than pay him at least $20M (including a 2020 buyout) through the 2019 season? While many will scoff at the idea out of practice, it's worth considering.

When Teheran signed a $32.4M extension in mid-February of 2014, he was coming off his first full-season in the majors. The deal effectively bought out the remaining five years of arbitration, a year of free agency, and potentially a second year with an $12M option for 2020. Along with the Andrelton Simmons' extension, both were very aggressive moves by the front office as they attempted to get ahead of the horse for what appeared likely to be very expensive arbitration years for the two young players. The plan was to pay them a bit more now but potentially save money later on. In turn, the players received financial security. Simmons would later be traded and while Teheran was often thrown around as a potential arm to be dealt in trade talks, he stuck around as the Braves went into a full rebuild.

Since signing the extension, he's been equally good and bad. In 2014 and 2016, he posted a matching WAR, according to Fangraphs, of 3.2 in both seasons. But then, his WAR fell to 1.1 in 2015 and it's unlikely to even reach that this season. In fact, since he signed the extension, his fWAR ranks just outside the Top 50 qualified starters in baseball at 7.9. That's lower than Tanner Roark, Mike Leake, and Bartolo Colon. It'd likely be lower if not for Teheran's durability. He's tossed the tenth most innings since the beginning of 2014. Nevertheless, the last four years haven't exactly lined up for Teheran like anyone had hoped.

Further, there is a reason to believe his 2016 bounce back season had a little too much luck in it. Lefties had a .247 BABIP against him that season, 35 points below his career average when facing left-handed hitters. His production against lefties has long been an issue that has limited Teheran, who has yet to develop a pitch to keep them honest. In turn, lefties bash him around to the tune of a 5.05 FIP over his career and it's only worsened as time has gone on (5.67 FIP since the beginning of 2015). Nearly 35% of batted balls since 2015 are classified as hard-hit, according to Baseball Info Solutions. To put it another way, a third of all balls left-handed batters put in play are scorched around the park. Some are caught, but too many of them find holes in the defense - or worse, become a souvenir for a fan in the outfield bleachers.

Teheran's problems against left-handers start with one key issue: his fastball loses much of its effectiveness against them. About a quarter of all swings on his four-seam fastball against right-handers are whiffs. That number falls about 10% against left-hand batters. Without a fastball to get ahead in the count, Teheran can't use his secondary pitches to induce weaker contact - or get more whiffs. Further, we don't see much of a drop in whiffs on Teheran's breaking pitches despite how many plate appearances in a game a right-hand hitter might have against Teheran. Against left-handers, his slider and curve see great declines in whiffs-per-swing after the first time through the order. That suggests that after left-hand batters get a read on his breaking pitches, they learn to lay off the ones they can't hit. The ones that they do...well, they don't always land.

Single Season Top fWAR for Braves SP since 2008 

Let's pull back for a second because it's definitely worth mentioning that Teheran doesn't turn 27 until the end of next January. Further, this is a pitcher with a pair of 3-win seasons during his career, something that's happened just nine times over the last decade for the Braves and almost certainly won't occur this year. Ignoring the reasons the Braves gave him an extension in the first place is a disservice to Teheran's time in the majors.

But two other pitchers show up on that list of 3-win guys since 2008 and they should scare Braves' fans - Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Much like Teheran, they were, at different times in their career, expected to front line a Braves' rotation for the next half-decade. And while we can talk about injuries and personal demons, another issue that developed for both pitchers might also serve as a warning sign for Teheran.

Declining velocity doesn't always mean something bad, but it can be a problem for a pitcher moving forward. In his rookie season of 2008, Jair Jurrjens averaged 92.4 mph on his four-seamer and 92.7 mph on his sinker. By 2011, he had lost three mph on both and a year later, he would be non-tendered by the Braves. He's made three starts in the majors since. During Hanson's rookie year, he averaged 92.7 mph on his four-seamer and 92.4 mph on his sinker. During his one 3-win season, he added a tick more velocity on the four-seamer but lost some on his sinker. The added velocity on his four-seamer was gone the next year and in 2012, it fell to 90.7 mph. That was his final year with the Braves. With Teheran, his velocity dropped after his rookie season from 93 mph to 92.2 mph. It stayed roughly the same in 2015, but he's continued to bleed a little velocity off in the two years since. In five years, he's gone from an average 93 mph to 91.9 mph. He's just 26 years-old. Now, the loss in average velocity is not a massive alarming discrepancy, but at his age, losing velocity is something to keep an eye on.

To not be concerned about Teheran's production at this point is to ignore reality. What's worse is that Teheran's struggles might only get worse, depending on how high this peak in offensive production that we are seeing league-wide goes. In 2014, the league ISO was .135 and the wOBA was .310. It's climbed to .172 and .322 respectively this season, prompting many commentators to refer to this year as a sign the ball is juiced again. Teheran has always given up a healthy amount of homers, but with home runs leaving the yard at an increased rate, that makes a pitcher like Teheran especially vulnerable. It's worth mentioning that baseball runs in cycles and just a few years ago, people were going crazy about a "Golden Age of Pitchers."

Could the Braves need, as Kirby also said, a new pitching coach? Well, they went down that route last winter when they sacked Roger McDowell in favor of Chuck Hernandez. It's unlikely that the Braves will shed Hernandez after just one year, though Ken Rosenthal recently suggested some radical moves might be on the horizon by an increasingly frustrated front office.

Let's circle back to those questions I asked earlier: is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now?

To the first question, I think there is a good chance of yes, Teheran is just a durable innings eater. According to Baseball-Reference, Teheran's most similar pitcher through 25 was Scott Sanderson. A veteran of 19 years in the majors, Sanderson got to the bigs at 21 years-old with the Expos and a lot was expected from the right-hander. Ultimately, he never received a Cy Young vote, was named to just one All-Star Game, and started two playoff games in which he got beat around a good deal. Nevertheless, he was a good rotation piece for the Expos and then the Cubs before settling into a more nomadic experience over the final seven years of his career. Essentially, he was the Ervin Santana of his time. Could that be Teheran's future?

Or could he be a starter that does figure it out finally in his later 20's more than he ever had before? Certainly, it's a possibility, but is it one the Braves should count on? Is it one that Teheran has shown much reason to expect over the last three years?

Maybe the best argument against trading Teheran is the one I have made before. Trading him this offseason might be the worst time to do so. His value has taken a big hit this season and moving him now could be considered selling low on a player who, again, has had two 3-win seasons in his young career. General managers can get over missing the right window to trade a pitcher - as Frank Wren did with Jair Jurrjens. What keeps them up at night is trading a pitcher who looks to be on the decline only to see them find it again in a new city while you took back a small return just to get rid of him.

Teheran's Splits vs. LH batters since 2013

The second-best argument against trading Teheran is the same one that one might argue when we discuss moving Foltynewicz to the bullpen. Why move these guys when the rotation isn't exactly pushing them out of the way right now? Inning eaters certainly have value especially in a young rotation prone to outings that require long relief stints. In addition, trading Teheran would have to be part of a series of moves aimed at shoring up the front-of-the-rotation. John Coppolella would have to rebuild the first three spots in the rotation this offseason without Teheran in the mix at an affordable rate.

To sum up, this has been an exercise from someone who's not sure what the answer is. I have decreasing confidence that Teheran will resemble the guy we once thought would headline a playoff rotation. At the same time, are the Braves in a position where they can actually trade Teheran right now? And even if they were, is now the right time to trade Teheran? Did the Braves already miss their window to maximize Teheran's market value and now are better off keeping him for some level of consistency as he eats innings every fifth day? All the while, they are merely hoping to see another unsustainably low BABIP against left-hand batters to increase Teheran's production.

There's no easy answer here. My belief is that the Braves will wait, see, and hope. I guess their fans are left with the same options.

Brian Snitker isn't the Problem

You may have read that headline and thought this was going to be a post defending or advocating for Brian Snitker as manger. This is not that post. I don’t think Brian Snitker is particularly good at managing a baseball team and given the choice between a good manager or bad manager, I’ll take the good manager. But this isn’t the Braves problem. At least not their main problem.

You win based on your talent level. There are other factors that contribute to winning of course; luck, randomness but talent is the one most responsible and the one you can control most, and therefore the most crucial. Managers often get the axe when things don’t go well, creating this misconception that a great manager somehow holds the key winning while a bad one will be your downfall. The reality is managers get fired because that’s hell of lot easier than firing 25 players or firing yourself as GM. It’s the path of least resistance. Let’s not mistake it for some monumental change. A great manager adds maybe 2 wins to your team? A bad one probably cost about the same. There’s just not that much value to be had. And most a what a manager does isn't seen or quantifiable anyways. No, what moves the needle is talent. And the bottom line is Atlanta doesn’t have enough talent.

Not having enough talent and having a bad manager is akin to having a broken pinky and a gun-shot wound. Yeah, eventually you’ll want to address that broken pinky just because life is better with a fully functioning pinky but it’s hardly the thing holding you back. The Braves have to get substantially better on the field or what they have in the dugout will cease to matter. 

We'll go position by position.

Freddie Freeman is amazing. This isn’t news. Get him healthy and first base is taken care of for the foreseeable future.

Ozzie Albies looks like the guy he’s been billed to be the last few years. Dynamic, young, a little more powerful than he may appear to have and very likely the second baseman of the future. You’re set there.

Shortstop is where it starts to get a little fuzzy. Dansby Swanson has eased the minds of a lot of Braves’ fans with the way he’s played since returning from demotion but the overall numbers are still bad. Him turning into a solid, everyday player would go a long way for the organization and he’ll at least get every opportunity to do just that.

Third base is a black hole. I wrote a couple weeks ago about Atlanta’s struggles finding a 3B since Chipper Jones retired and they haven’t solved them yet. Plenty of people will tell you Johan Camargo or Rio Ruiz will fill that spot but I’m not sold on either one as an everyday guy. You could potentially look at a platoon here but this is a spot I think Atlanta needs to be looking at serious upgrades. They could change the dynamic of the their whole lineup if they go and get legitimate guy for third and use guys like Camargo and Ruiz for the bench.

Right field is a weird problem. I say weird because Atlanta has an elite talent ready to step in and take that role for the next decade in Ronald Acuna. But they have a tricky path in clearing space for him. Nick Markakis is still under contract for next year at around 11M and has shown yet again this year he isn’t worth giving a full-time job too. His contract is underwater at this point and the Braves will almost certainly have to eat a chunk of it to move him. I’d like to say that’s certainly what they’ll do but this front office has already had to convince ownership to pay players while they play for another team and there may be more coming after Markakis so how they handle this will be interesting. Whatever they do with Markakis, bottom line is right field needs an upgrade which means Acuna needs to play.

Center field is set. Ender Inciarte is tremendous and there's zero reason to mess with that position at all. Moving on.

Left field. Oh boy. This is the biggest headache facing Atlanta, at least among position players. Matt Kemp is a replacement level player making a ton of money and signed for another 2 seasons after this one. He's absolutely, 100% not an outfielder anymore and should be playing out the rest of his career as a DH in the AL. Problem is how to get him there. Teams aren’t lining up to trade for a guy putting up his numbers, making his salary and this is another scenario where Atlanta most certainly will have to eat a large portion of the contract to move the player. I just don’t know how much of this ownership is willing to do. Atlanta is a small market team when it comes to payroll. They have a hard enough time competing with the big boys when all their money is going to people playing for them. Paying guys to play for someone else gets old and there’s only so many times you can go to that well. However they do it, though, LF is spot in desperate need of real talent, and at least for now, there doesn’t seem to be a way to achieve that.

Catcher has the been the brightest of bright spots this year. Both Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki have been way better than advertised. Flowers is under contract next year for a steal at 4M while Suzuki becomes a free agent. Suzuki has done enough this season to warrant a starting job next year which I bet he gets so my guess is Atlanta will have to find a decent back up somewhere. But given Flowers’ production as well as the other issues facing the team, this is one I’m not too worried about. Though I guess if we’re being prudent, we should assume Tyler won’t have the same BABIP luck next year and should expect a regression in his production but like I said, Atlanta has bigger fish to fry. If catcher is the biggest problem they have next year, then they’ve done a hell of job.

Starting pitching is most definitely a sore subject in the Braves offices at the moment. Atlanta comes in to tonight’s action with a starter’s ERA of almost 5. (4.90) This after Atlanta spent almost 30M in the offseason on three veteran starters that were supposed to stabilize the rotation. Combine that with the 5 or 6 SP prospects that have already debuted with average results and you can believe starting pitching will once again be the main priority this offseason. It’s easy to just say let kids pitch but each one of the guys that have appeared so far has major red flags in their profile. Whether it’s not missing enough bats, not being able to get opposite handed hitters out or having serious command issues, it’s probably not wise to trust an entire season’s worth of innings to just prospects. Bottom line is Atlanta’s starters have produced a combined total of 5.4 WAR this year which will end up being behind several individual pitchers. There is no spot on the field where Atlanta needs to see a greater jump in production than starting pitching.

If starting pitching is the number one problem then the bullpen is number two. Braves are dead last in the NL in bullpen production and 29^th in all of baseball. The principal problem is Jim Johnson who is owed over 4M next year while producing a 5.81 ERA this year and ultimately being removed from the closer's role. Braves have shuffled guys in and out all year with the overall results being poor. There have been some bright spots in Sam Freeman and Arodys Vizcaino as well as younger guys like Akeel Morris and A.J. Minter so not all is lost. Combine some of those guys with starters like Lucas Sims who probably becomes a reliever and there’s something to build on. But production has to go up. It’s almost impossible to achieve anything of worth in a baseball season while having one of the worst bullpen in the league. Unless you’re the Nats.

The bench has been one of the bright spots for the 2017 season. What started as a major weakness with names like Emilio Bonifacio and Chase d’Arnaud has evolved to include guys like Camargo, Ruiz and Lane Adams. I think Atlanta can put together a decently competent bench with just internal guys assuming they go outside the org to fill certain starting jobs. We’ll see.

So there you go. A lot of work to do. I count SS, 3B, LF, RF, SP and RP as areas Atlanta needs serious production increases. Some of that will happen internally of course. Dansby can bounce back, Acuna could be the starting RF, some of the starters could take a step forward, etc. But those steps forward aren’t guaranteed and should never be assumed. Especially the pitchers. It would be unwise for the Braves to leave all of this needed production up to young players. They need external additions as well. Probably at 3B. Probably in LF. Probably somewhere in the rotation. 

And yes, it be nice if they had a fully competent manager. Snitker is a problem but as the title says he isn't the problem. They could stand for an upgrade in the dugout, no doubt. But having a working pinky isn’t worth much if you died from that gun-shot wound.

2017 Danville Braves Review

2017 Minor League Recaps
DSL
GCL

Kevin Maitan and manager Nestor Perez | Tommy Poe, Walkoffwalk.net

Last week marked the end of the Danville Braves' 2017 season. They finished 36-32, matching their expected win-loss record. It wasn't enough for Danville to return to the playoffs as they finished well behind Pulaski for the second East Division postseason spot, but it was the third time in four years Danville has finished with a .500 or better record. The season was noteworthy for its many promotions with guys like Isranel Wilson and Leudys Baez leaving the team to test their talents in the South Atlantic League while hotshot prospects like Kevin Maitan, Drew Waters, Jeffrey Ramos, and Juan Carlos Encarnacion joined the team a month or so after the season began.

The biggest moment this season for the D-Braves came on August 8. In Game 1 of a doubleheader, Bruce Zimmermann walked the second batter he faced. He would retire the next five in order. Jake Belinda set down a dozen straight hitters before John Curtis got two strikeouts and a flyout to end the doubleheader shortened game with a 5-0 win. Oh, it was also the team's first no-hitter since 2009.

Speaking of the Danville pitching staff, with an ERA of 3.71, the Braves took home the Team ERA title in a league where the average ERA was 4.48. Danville also surrendered 32 home runs, nine fewer than second place. The D-Braves were hurt by a defense that committed the second-most errors (111) and caught just 23% of potential base stealers.

Offensively, Danville was essentially the league average as they finished in the middle of the pack in a variety of categories. Drew Lugbauer nearly took home to APPY League home run title, which would have been quite an accomplishment considering he was with Danville for only half of the season before a promotion to Rome. He finished one homer short of the league-lead.

Let's focus in on some of the Danville standouts. I'll skip over some of Danville's prospects who received more playing time with a different minor league squad.

Danville Pitcher of the Year - Dilmer Mejia
It wasn't a good start to the 2017 campaign for Mejia, whose prospect status has waned over a few injury-shortened seasons, but Mejia turned it around in August. He was used more as a piggyback reliever, only starting one of the five games he pitched that month, but he still tossed 22.2 innings and more than anything, the hits stopped falling, giving him an ERA of well under 2.00 for the final month of action. It dropped his season ERA a shade under 4 at 3.91. All season long, Mejia flashed tremendous control (just ten walks in 50.2 innings) and finished with a career-high 9.2 K/9. It's not enough to get him back into the discussion as one of the top pitching prospects in the system, but Mejia only turned 20 in July so his season might keep him in the Braves' good graces moving forward as the now four-year veteran finally gets a shot in Rome.

Danville Player of the Year - William Contreras

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

While many Danville stars moved up the ladder to play with Rome, Contreras remained - in no small part because the catching situation is packed ahead of him. The only D-Brave to be named a postseason All-Star, Contreras slashed .290/.379/.432 over 198 PA this season with ten doubles, a triple, and four home-runs. And while questions might continue to remain about his bat, the skills behind the plate continue to blossom. Contreras only caught 23% of base stealers this year, though Danville pitchers rarely did him any favors. He'll continue to clean up his footwork, but the arm strength and accuracy is not in question. I'm not a scout, but if I had to attach a grade to his arm, it'd be at least a 70-grade. Contreras also shows good athleticism behind the plate, which gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that his glove will probably be good enough to get him to the majors. Again, people remain split on his offensive potential, but this year opened some eyes. He showed very good plate discipline and pitch recognition while flashing impressive power for a 19-year-old. He's going to be a guy to watch in 2018 as he makes the jump to full-season ball and if my opinion means anything (it doesn't), I wouldn't be shocked to see Contreras soar up the prospect rankings into the Top 20 or even Top 15 by this time next year.

Other Names to Remember
Kyle Muller, LHP - I saw a number of D-Braves games this season, but sadly, none of the games I saw included Muller. Drafted with Joey Wentz, Ian Anderson, and Bryse Wilson last year, Muller hasn't been on the same trajectory as that trio. While they were serving as the backbone of the Rome staff, Muller was struggling through an uneven season in Danville. The strikeouts were solid, but he rarely had a really nice outing. He also was shut down for a few weeks in early August. Like I said, I didn't get to see him pitch and I'm not down on him, but he's clearly behind the other three top prep arms selected last June. He'll try to get his prospect status humming again in the right direction next spring in Rome. To put a bow on his season, the Danville defense had issues for most of the year - especially early on - and that likely played some role in limiting Muller's effectiveness.

Kevin Maitan, SS - Let's just throw out his triple slash of .220/.273/.323. Seriously, toss it in the trash. We're talking about a 17-year-old hitter in a league where the average pitcher was 20.7 years-old. Also, Maitan did start to figure it out some toward the end of the season, slashing .259/.318/.414 over his final 15 G (66 PA). I watched Maitan a few times during the season and you can definitely see a guy who is in a heavier weight class than he should be right now. At the same time, you also see glimpses of the player that was ranked #77 in the Baseball America preseason Top 100 before he had even swung a bat professionally. He's bulked up noticeably compared to the lean kid that signed last year and contrary to what really smart people on twitter might say, it appears to be all muscle. He whiffed a lot as he was catching up to professional speed fastballs, but when he connects, he hits the ball as hard as anyone I saw this year in the Appalachian League. So, with Maitan right now, you kind of have to throw most of the numbers in the trash and look for those glimpses to see when he starts to figure it out. As the season progressed, those glimpses became more common. Defensively, Maitan seems destined to outgrow shortstop. I feel the instincts are there, but the range isn't. He does flash a good arm, though. The Braves are aggressive with promotions and despite the fact Maitan won't turn 18 until February, you have to imagine he's penciled in right now to begin 2018 in Rome. Again, that might be a bit too much for him, but when the light switch gets turned on for Maitan, watch out!

Drew Waters, OF - Similar story to Maitan. Waters had a bit more success with a .255/.331/.383 line and I saw him smash a homer the other way in a park that isn't so easy to hit homers. But I also saw the bad. In the first game I saw him play, he struck out four consecutive times on a hot July day. He looked absolutely befuddled at the plate and even lost grip on his bat twice in the same plate appearance. Again, he was looking better late in August than in mid-July when he joined Danville, hitting .266/.329/.453 over his final 15 games (70 PA). Waters looks very comfortable in center field and I think the range is solid enough for him to stick in center moving forward. He's going to have to make a lot more contact in the future, but that 5-tool talent is something to be excited about. A lot of smart people are convinced that by midseason next year, Waters will be the top Braves outfield prospect left in the minors.

Cruz | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Derian Cruz, 2B - The Braves moved Cruz away from shortstop and he responded with better defense. Unfortunately, the bat just never showed up this season for Cruz, who began the year struggling in Rome before joining Danville. Nobody played in more games this year for the Braves than Cruz, but he only slashed .235/.281/.315 as a D-Brave. Cruz was initially rated higher coming out of the 2015 J2 class than Cristian Pache, but it's safe to say that right now, Cruz's stock is falling while Pache's is rising. All of that said, Cruz won't turn 19 until October 3 so while he has a bit more experience than Maitan and Waters, he's still very young. The Braves will likely give Cruz a chance to bounce back with Rome to open 2018 as other infielders push their way into the mix in Danville. I'm not convinced he'll ever live up to his pre-signing hype, but it's way too early to write him off.

Justin Smith, OF - One of my favorite players that the Braves drafted after the top three picks in June, Smith is a former Miami Hurricane who found himself at junior college level. He's got good size, athleticism, and some pop that, unfortunately, we didn't see enough of while in Danville. That said, eight of his 28 hits went for extra bases, including three homers, and I think Smith has sleeper written all over him heading into 2018. The at-bats for Rome in the outfield could be tough to come by with Waters and Jeffrey Ramos heading there along with a couple of players I haven't mentioned yet in this recap, but if Smith spends the winter training wisely for the 2018 season, he could surprise some onlookers. Not me, though. I'm already on the bus.

Gary Schwartz, OF - As Bradley Keller and Lugbauer moved on to Rome, Schwartz received more playing time, becoming the regular right fielder, and bashed five homers and seven doubles in 73 PA in August. He walked 13 times to 11 strikeouts and OPS'd over a thousand, which made his full-season numbers jump to .281/.398/.531. In a three-game run after a promotion to Florida, he went 1-for-9 with 5 K's, but I imagine an assignment with Rome is more likely next year. Drafted a few months ago in the 16th round, Schwartz is an alum of Grand Canyon University, the same school that once produced Tim Salmon. So, there's that. I like Schwartz if only because his name invites scores of Spaceballs commentary.

Michel | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Shean Michel, OF - Also referred to as Raysheandall or simply "Ray," Michel was one of the pop-up prospects that literally seemed to come out of nowhere. Michel has actually been in the organization for three years, but didn't impress much in a 26-game run in the GCL last year or his start at that level this season over five games. But when the former NFL player Sanders Commings basically gave up on his baseball dream, it opened up some playing time in Danville for Michel and he took off. Over 145 PA, he hit .326/.378/.424 with nine doubles, two triples, and seven steals. He also showed good range all over the outfield with a nice arm. Grade-wise, Michel won't stand out - especially at the plate. That said, I've seen this guy smack the ball the other way so he's not all dink-and-dunk in the batter's box. Like Smith, Michel is one of my guys that I probably like more than others. Also like Smith, I can't wait to see what he does at Rome next spring.

Bradley Keller, OF - It took him three years, but we finally saw some of the reasons the Braves made Keller their 15th-round selection back in 2015. Over 33 games in Danville, the right-hand hitting outfielder slashed .306/.360/.597 with six home runs. With Keller already having experience both in Rome and Danville before this season, the Braves had reason to believe that Keller's production would be sustainable following a promotion back to Rome to end the season. That hope ultimately wasn't realized. His OPS fell nearly .400 points over 25 games in the South Atlantic League. That's probably not so promising. That said, there's a good deal to like about Keller as a sleeper-type outfielder, but outside of this year's 33-game run with Danville, we just haven't seen it enough. He'll likely return to Rome to open 2018 and try to improve on the .169/.219/.312 triple slash he's put up in the SALLY over the last two years (78 G).

Odalvi Javier, RHP - I saw more of Javier than any other pitcher this season and came away impressed - especially with his bulldog nature on the mound. He's not going to reach the majors on his stuff, but on his pitchability. He has a good fastball and some decent secondary pitches, but I wouldn't attach a plus 50-grade to any of them and also don't see a lot of projection for the pitches as he ages. That said, Javier knows what he's doing on the mound and is stubborn and tenacious. He hit a league-high 11 batters this year despite solid control and that's largely due to the fact that he understands he'll have to pitch inside to get out the opposition. He was also a workhouse for Danville, throwing the fourth-most innings in the league. I don't like doing comps, but something about Javier reminds me of Luis Avilan, though the latter was left-handed. Regardless, both pitched themselves into promotions without the kind of skill set top prospects have because they were confident hurlers with a chip on their shoulder. I can tell you that Javier is a guy I'll be watching next year.

Bruce Zimmermann, LHP - Though he made eleven starts, Zimmermann is a reliever and was treated as such (23.1 innings). He responded with great strikeout numbers and good enough control moving forward. A fifth rounder out of Mount Olive College (Go Pickles?), Zimmermann is the type of player the Braves have had good success at developing over the last few years: Small college relievers with big-time stuff. Zimmermann has that and it'll be interesting to see what kind of push he gets. The Braves are aggressive with college picks so I wouldn't be shocked to see Zimmermann jump Rome if there's room in Florida next spring.

Jaret Hellinger, LHP - Similar to Javier, Hellinger gets by on pitchability. He's not as aggressive as Javier, but the Braves have long liked his arm. I'm wondering if he's one of the guys who gets moved to the pen next year as the Braves try to find enough starting spots for all of their pitchers next spring. Hellinger puts up decent numbers across the board, but nothing really stands out.

Huascar Ynoa, RHP - Acquired in the Jaime Garcia trade, Ynoa matched his pre-trade ERA with a 5.26 run, but I think the Braves have a nice piece here just the same. The Twins worked with Ynoa to limit his pitch offerings to aid his control. It worked but also took away from of his specialness. The Braves opened him up more to use more pitches and his cutter was especially difficult on hitters. Ynoa's results aren't where anyone wants them, but I like his pitches a good deal and wouldn't be shocked to see him take a big step forward next year.

Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP - Speaking of guys whose results didn't match their stuff - compared to guys like Javier where the opposite is true - De La Cruz came up from the GCL level and had a few decent outings, but mostly struggled with the Braves. His mechanics can come out of whack, but he's another one of those lottery tickets that could turn into a useful pitcher.

Zach Rice, LHP - One of the few holdovers from the 2016 roster, Rice made a huge jump in control. After walking a batter an inning last year, he cut it down by more than half and, unsurprisingly, threw more innings as a result. His one saving grace from last year, a strikeout rate of 10.2 per nine, only improved with better control as well. An 18th-rounder in 2016 out of UNC, Rice looks primed to take on the challenge of Rome next year.

John Curtis, LHP - There were times this year where the D-Braves would use four pitchers in a game and all of them were left-handed. Curtis screams LOOGY. Great deception on the mound and a heavy fastball that can be difficult to barrel up. Another one of the 69 left-handers the Braves drafted back in June, Curtis was a guy that I would have liked to see in Rome before the season ended. He had the feel of a pitcher stuck at a level below him.

Dyals | Tommy Poe, Walkoffwalk.net

Cutter Dyals, RHP - Looking for the future Peter Moylan? It could be Dyals. He drops down and throws a fastball with plenty of life. I believe he also has a slider, but am not positive. Whatever it was, it got a good deal of late movement on it. I'm not sure he'll be good enough against left-hand batters as he progresses, but he's fun to watch.

Landon Hughes, RHP - Picked in the seventh round out of Georgia Southern, Hughes is hard to miss with his curly blonde hair. On the mound, though, he was one of the APPY League's top relievers. Over 15 games, 10 of which he finished with 5 saves, Hughes logged 21.1 innings and gave up just four runs. That's something you're capable of doing when you only walk five. He also struck out 27. Hughes throws quality strikes with a purpose and has enough natural stuff to possibly be a relief arm that makes quick work of the Braves' minor league system. He did appear once in Rome and was uncharacteristically wild, walking three over 1.1 ING. Despite that, I wouldn't be shocked if Hughes is in Florida to open 2018.

Quick Stats
36-32, 6th-most in RS, 2nd-fewest runs given up

Leaders
RS - Derian Cruz, 32
H - Cruz, 50
2B - Bradley Keller, 14
3B - Isranel Wilson, 3
HR - Drew Lugbauer, 10
RBI - Lugbauer, 27
SB - Cruz, 11
AVG - Ray Michel, .326
OBP - Garrison Schwartz, .398
SLG - Keller, .597
ISO - Lugbauer, .330
wOBA - Keller, .445
wRC+ - Keller, 144

(min. 30 ING for rate stats)
W - Jacob Belinda, 6
G - Kelvin Rodriguez, 19
GS - Odalvi Javier, 13
SV - Landon Hughes, 5
IP - Javier, 63
BB - Javier, 22
BB% - Dilmer Mejia, 4.7% (lowest)
K - Mejia, 52
K% - Mejia, 24.4%
ERA - Javier, 3.14
FIP - Mejia, 2.87