-->
Showing posts with label TonySanchez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TonySanchez. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Organizational Overview: Catcher

WhatProsWear
Yesterday, we began a series looking at the best prospects by position starting with catcher, but I'd be remiss if we didn't also look at where the Braves stand at catcher right now. After all, just because a position is a strength in the minors doesn't need help right now. Conversely, a position like first base looks pretty weak in the minors, but the Braves aren't that interested in addressing that because of who they have in the majors.

This series of articles will look at both the recent past - especially 2017 - and the foreseeable future. It will take into account the current major league roster, the current depth in the minors, and the future of the position. Think of this series as a way to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a roster before attempting to fix problems moving forward. I will use some of the information I already released about the current roster makeup as a reminder.

Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Current Projection: $7.5M

On a roster in flux, there is some degree of stability behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will almost certainly be brought back for 2018 and once again will be paired with Kurt Suzuki. We will get to the details on how effective this duo was in 2017, but it's very important to remember that the price per value here is exceptionally high. The Braves are essentially paying the price for a medium-grade starter for two catchers who are capable of being starters in the majors. However, both are probably better for the time share they played under last season. Catchers are naturally prone to breaking down as the season progresses, but the Braves avoided that by having their duo share the load.

The other 40-man options right now are unlikely to be in the mix by opening day. Freitas is Triple-A filler while Sanchez, more known for his defense, didn't even catch an inning after being acquired at the waiver-trade deadline.

Comparison - The Majors

The duo of Flowers and Suzuki lack the name recognition and neither will be All-Stars in 2018, but for one year, they gave the Braves the best production from behind the plate in the league. Only four teams received at least 4 WAR from their catchers in 2017 and only the Braves pushed over the 5 WAR cliff - finishing with 5.1 fWAR to be exact. They were tied for fourth in homers, third in ISO, first in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Defensively, they were slightly below-average - largely because Flowers gives up defensive value for framing - something he's the best at in baseball.

Because the Braves can keep both Flowers and Suzuki moving forward, the position looks to have zero upheaval heading into 2018. It might be a pipe dream to expect the Braves to get another 5-win season from their catchers - it was shocking that it happened once - but both Flowers and Suzuki credit Kevin Seitzer for their improvements at the plate and the Braves certainly could bring back Seitzer for another season. That would keep a good team together for another year, though the Braves are rumored to look at some considerable alterations to their coaching staff despite bringing back Brian Snitker.

Regardless, the Braves should rank among the top 10 or so teams heading into 2018 behind the plate even if individually, both of their catchers are ranked much lower. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Marlins, and possibly the Mariners should all rank ahead of them on the strength of their number one catcher. The Orioles and Tigers, a combined 7.2 fWAR between them, will be tasked with rebuilding their catching situation. Welington Castillo could return to the Orioles, but after a big year, he'll likely seek out a long-term deal rather than come back on a player's option while the Tigers already dealt Alex Avila last season.

Obviously, there are a lot of dominoes that will fall this offseason, but the fact the Braves have two respectable catchers who put up the kind of numbers that they did in 2017 makes this position a strength heading into 2018 compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - Immediate Depth

I don't want you to get the wrong idea - this is simply what kind of depth is already projected to be in the minors who could be on the major league roster when the season opens next year. The Braves have a lot of catching prospects - and I'll get back to them - but their best prospects are not likely going to be in the mix next April. However, the Braves do have Kade Scivicque and that isn't the worst thing in the world. Scivicque missed our Top 5, but is probably a Top 50 prospect in this loaded system so don't sleep on him. He doesn't project as much more than a backup in the majors, but is smart and capable behind the plate. He has some gap power and while aggressive at the plate, will make enough solid contact to possibly post a good average if the BABIP allow it.

The Braves could bring back Freitas or Sanchez for more depth and they also have Sal Giardina and Joseph Odom, who both appeared in Gwinnett last year. Neither, however, project as much more than organizational filler and the Braves don't need Freitas or the rarely utilized Sanchez. Beyond them, you have last year's Double-A duo of Jonathan Morales and Alex Jackson. Morales is a lot like Giardina and Odom, but Jackson is a legit prospect if he can stay behind the plate. Actually, with his bat, he's a legit prospect anywhere, but he brings more value as a catcher. Reports were mixed about Jackson, but he did appear to look much more comfortable as the season progressed after moving from the outfield. If he continues to respond to coaching, Jackson could be knocking on the door sometime next summer. Despite not being in the mix when the season opens, Jackson is still slated to open 2018 in Gwinnett if only because that's where the at-bats because there's so much depth behind him. Even if an injury opened a spot in the bigs, I think Scivicque is ahead of Jackson for the time being, but at some point in 2018, that's going to change.

I'd classify the immediate depth as average, but trending up.

Comparison - The Future

The Braves might not have any of their catchers make one of the big Top 100 Prospects list this winter, but the depth here is off-the-charts. I already mentioned Jackson, and he received the most points for our top catching prospect in our recent list. The great thing about the catching depth is that it's spread out pretty well. Here's a brief projection with the Top 5 catching prospects and others that likely will be in the mix.

Gwinnett: Alex Jackson (#1), Kade Scivicque (Honorable mention), Joseph Odom.
Mississippi: Brett Cumberland (#3), Jonathan Morales, Sal Giardina
Florida: Lucas Herbert (#5), Carlos Martinez, Tanner Murphy
Rome: William Contreras (#2), Hagen Owenby
Danville: Abrahan Gutierrez (#4), Alan Crowley, Zack Soria

Not too shabby. The best combinations of offense/defense of the group are likely 2-3 years away in Contreras and Gutierrez, but there's a pair of good offensive talents in Herbert and Cumberland with a lottery ticket in Herbert mixed in whose bat could develop well enough to increase his prospect standing. This list does not include Drew Lugbauer, who was classified as a first basemen due to where he played the most. Still, Lugbauer gives the Braves another possibility even if it's as a part-time catcher/corner infielder coming off the bench.

No matter how you slice it, the future is a major strength for the Braves and likely one of the best catching prospect situations in baseball - if not the best.

The Big Picture

When it comes to the catcher position, there are few teams in a better position than the Braves. Sure, the chances of the Braves having the best production in baseball from their catchers in 2018 is not high, but there's also a strong chance that both Flowers and Suzuki perform well enough to lead the Braves to a solid season from behind the plate. The coming attractions, though, is where the Braves turn the catcher position into something special. It's hard not to think the Braves should be good behind the plate for the next decade.

Friday, September 1, 2017

Introducing Tony Sanchez

Let's go to the annual Baseball Prospectus from 2015 for the story on Tony Sanchez:
"Good news: Sanchez might eke out a career as a back-up catcher. Bad news: That's about the best-case scenario."
Cool.

By Eugene Kim on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational Crop) [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
If you didn't hear - and judging by the mass hysteria on social media, you almost certainly did - the Braves traded Brandon Phillips yesterday evening for catcher Tony Sanchez. WOW.net contributor - and second biggest The Office fan at the blog - Stephen Tolbert went over the deal last night with a focus on Phillips and why the Braves got so little in return for a solid performer. Instead of repeating him, I want to look at Sanchez because I'm more into tackling the mundane and boring subjects in baseball. Speaking of which, did you see my Denny Neagle trade retrospective the other day? No? Oh...

Sanchez was drafted with the fourth overall selection of the 2009 draft out of Boston College but was born and raised in Miami. I was first introduced to Sanchez a few months later. After stays in the New York-Penn League and South Atlantic League, Sanchez finished up his first summer in pro ball by joining the Lynchburg Hillcats in the Carolina League. The 'Cats already had a future major league backstop in Eric Fryer along with a productive bat in Kris Watts, but Sanchez was the big name and with the 'Cats headed to the playoffs, the Pirates decided to give Sanchez a shot at managing a pitching staff in some important games. They would win the title a few weeks later.

Sanchez was immediately a big prospect, ranking #79 in baseball heading into his first full season by Baseball America. It was an injury-shortened, but solid campaign for Sanchez. Playing for the Pirates' new High-A team in Bradenton, he slashed .314/.416/.454 over 250 PA, though he would look pretty lost in a stint in the Arizona Fall League after the regular season ended. His prospect status began to take a hit from there. In 2011, now in the Eastern League, Sanchez slashed .241/.340/.318, which earned a return to the level to open 2012. He showed moderate improvement before a promotion to Triple-A. Three years after being drafted, Sanchez was already in Triple-A and while he was no longer showing up in Top 100's, there was still some hope he would be the long-term guy for the Pirates.

That, well, didn't happen. From 2013 until the end of 2015, Sanchez went back-and-forth between the Pirates and their top minor league team in Indianapolis. He had a few good runs mixed in, but was hardly noteworthy in the majors with a .259/.303/.378 slash over 155 PA. His longest look came in 2014 when a Russell Martin injury opened up some increased playing time. Sanchez wasn't especially bad, just forgetful, as he hit .267 with no plate recognition (3 BB/28 K in 80 PA).

Since leaving the Pirates, Sanchez struggled through a year of injuries and abysmal offensive production playing for both Buffalo and Sacramento. This year, he was sharing catcher duties with Carlos Perez in Salt Lake, the Angels' top minor league club. In a tremendous environment for hitters, Sanchez was hitting .272/.355/.374. For perspective, each of those marks is below the team average for this season.

Underwhelmed? As am I. As is everyone here at WOW.net. As is, I'm sure, John Coppolella. But as Stephen rightfully pointed out, the market was garbage this year for rental bats and the goes double for the market for Phillips, which was especially small with so many teams needing a 2B (and sometimes 3B). Sanchez provides the team some depth with Tyler Flowers on the mend and the Braves unsure if he'll play again this season. And to his credit, Sanchez's defense - his calling card since his BC days - remains very good. He's routinely placed very well in framing stats from Baseball Prospectus and, while he's not known for a big arm behind the plate, he does everything else you want from a catcher - much like Flowers.

Moving forward, this gets a bit murkier for Sanchez. With Kurt Suzuki a free agent, the Braves could bring back Sanchez for competition for next year's roster. The current backup to Suzuki, David Freitas, is basically a poor-man's version of Sanchez, interestingly enough - if there exists a poor man's version of a guy making the major league minimum. Freitas isn't quite as athletic behind the plate and has some of the same issues throwing out runners Sanchez has, but is just as good of a pitch framer and has displayed a similar offensive profile over the last couple of years.

For what it's worth, Sanchez could eclipse, if brought to the majors for little more than a week, one year of service time. If you were curious, Sanchez is also out of options.

To sum up, Sanchez is a capable defender and not much else. That might disappoint fans who wanted more if Phillips was traded. Certainly, I am disappointed, but realistically, my biggest hope was that the Braves would pick up some no-name arm that walks 10 BB/9 at rookie level but has big velocity. Suffice it to say, my expectations were really low in the event Phillips was dealt. Remember that the Braves gave the Reds Andrew McKirahan and a guy who they quickly released for Phillips while also getting the Reds to pay down over 90% of his salary this year. All in all, the Braves did well by Phillips to be open to a deal that would allow him an opportunity to play meaningful baseball. They did well for the team by opening up a spot in the lineup for Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz. And the Braves did well for future players by finding Phillips a new home rather than cut a productive player simply to open up time for younger ones. Sanchez might not be an interesting pickup, but it's better than nothing.