Time to make one last 25-man roster prediction for the season. By this time next week, we will know what the roster is finally. It's been as wide-open as any spring in recent memory and I am willing to bet at least two of the guys I have on the 25-man won't be there when the season opens. But...hey, gotta try to guess. Although, the Braves threw me a curveball when a guy I thought was pretty safe, James Russell, was released.
For the first three versions of this series, click here or here or even here.
Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Eric Stults
My Take? No change here unless we see a trade open up things. Michael Foltynewicz had a bat outing and Manny Banuelos was optioned. Cody Martin is still around, but at this point, I think the Braves are going with these five until Mike Minor returns.
Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Michael Kohn
RH - Brandon Cunniff (added)
LH Josh Outman
My Take? My best when we saw Mark Bowman talk this week about what it would take to release Outman or Russell that something was going to happen. I figured it would be Outman getting the heave-ho, but instead, it was Russell, who has forced me to edit this from the original draft from last night. I still think that a trade will add a buy-low, high-reward guy to this mix and Cunniff won't be there when the season opens, but with Russell gone, Cunniff has made a good case to be the best internal option. Martin still could drop into this role for a long guy. Of course, the Braves could also cut Outman.
Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C
My Take? With the season so close, I want to talk a little bit more about the lineup. It's hard to ever get a feel for how Fredi Gonzalez, or really any manager, wants to use the lineup in spring training because you rarely see all of the regular starters together. I've seen C-Beth clean up and we've seen a lot of Jace batting second. We've also seen Markakis hit second and third with Freeman pushed to cleanup. Above represents my best guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Jace leadoff rather than hit second. I don't think Fredi wants to go with a trio of lefties following Young.
Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
IF - Kelly Johnson
IF - Alberto Callaspo
IF/OF - Philip Gosselin (added)
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
Dropping: OF Eury Perez
My Take? The bench got a little cleared up with the demotion of Eury this week. For the time being, I've added The Goose to the bench and I think it's a pretty reasonable addition. Obviously, Pedro Ciriaco has been hitting the lights out of the ball and I could easily put him there, but I still think the sheer amount of the spots that would have to be cleared on the 40-man roster for non-roster guys might play a role before the beginning of the year. From this roster, I am looking at finding room for two starting pitchers, a reliever, a starting player, and a bench guy. That's five spots total. Not that the 40-man roster is packed with irreplaceable talent, but do the Braves want to move on from so many guys? Something might get cleared up by a trade and there are reports the Braves are in the market for an outfielder. Of course, Russell getting cut helped out a little.
Showing posts with label Eury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eury. Show all posts
Sunday, March 29, 2015
Monday, March 23, 2015
Braves Roster Beat: March 23 (About.com)
Added a blog to the About.com page about today's game, which, if you missed it, was a bit of a non-pitcher's dual. The Braves scored 14 times. All in one game. The Astros scored ten times, though six of them came in the later innings when the Braves played the junior varsity kids. Nick Markakis finally got into a game and was solid while Zoilo Almonte's bat started to sizzle. We also saw good games from Andrelton Simmons and Chris Johnson, along with Eric Young Jr. On the negative side, James Russell is not a starter. Alberto Callaspo isn't either. And Eury Perez wasn't all that impressive either. Check out the blog for more.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Roster Prediction: Where the 25 Stand (March 22 Edition)
Another week in and some new changes to the roster for the third edition of "Where the 25 Stand." For previous editions, you can click here or here.
Starting Rotation
2. Alex Wood
4. Wandy Rodriguez (up from #5 starter)
5. Eric Stults (downgraded to #5)
My Take? No one has outpitched Wandy so far in camp so it's not difficult to understand why he's already just about claimed the fourth spot. Stults hasn't been great and he won't strike out anyone, but really, the challengers aren't there to take this spot from him. Michael Foltynewicz and Manny Banuelos needed to have ridiculous camps to really claim a spot and veterans James Russell and Chien-Ming Wang haven't exactly been intriguing. Then...there's Cody Martin. If the Braves are able to cash in Wandy or Stults for a decent enough prospect, Martin could leapfrog into the fifth spot to start the year.
Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
LH - James Russell
LH - Josh Outman
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Michael Kohn
My Take? I still haven't made a change since my first edition and I feel comfortable with this seven. That said, I'm not married to the idea. Arodys Vizcaino has shown some life of late and some pitchers in other organizations will get pushed out due to being out out of options. Juan Jaime has to be considered because he is actually out of options, but retiring just 13 of the first 24 he faced this spring won't help considering he's been so poor. I'd put Martin as a possibility, but I think they'll want him at Gwinnett if he's not in the majors stretched out. That said, if Stults falters, could Martin push Stults to the pen? Doubtful, but I guess it's possible.
Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C
Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
IF - Kelly Johnson (added to bench)
IF - Alberto Callaspo
OF Eury Perez
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
Dropping: 1B/OF Joey Terdoslavich (dropping)
My Take? Last week, I had Eury replacing KJ, but KJ's shown signs of life over the last week and Terdo has began to struggle. I'm starting to think Zoilo's job, which I've assumed was set in stone, might be up for grabs. He hasn't looked that good this spring, but he is out of options and the Braves can afford to take an extended look at him. If this bench holds, it would be shame for both Terdo and Todd Cunningham, who would be ticketed for a third trip to Gwinnett even though both have had good camps. I've kept Pedro Ciriaco off the list because I don't think he's a major league talent, but Fredi might be fooled.
Finally, there is a developing issue. With two starters, a reliever, and two other position players - the Braves would have to find five spots on the 40-man roster for non-roster invitees. I have them at 39 currently so that would be room for one of the spots. Putting Daniel Winkler on the 60-day DL will open up a second spot. But three other players would have to be designated. Not that the room can't be found, but it makes me think Hart's not done dealing.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
What Does Options Even Mean? A Baseball Primer (About.com)
One of the most misunderstood aspects of the business of baseball is options. When players like Jose Peraza get optioned to Gwinnett, sometimes we just don't understand what that really means. This article attempts to explain what options are, when they are used, and how they might affect the decisions the Braves must make over the next few weeks. Should we keep Zoilo Almonte and Eury Perez to avoid exposing them to waivers over Joey Terdoslavich, who may have hit better then them this spring? Incidentally, I also have a new article on Terdo below. I hope you give them both a read and comment with any questions/comments you might have.
Read the article!
Read the article!
Why Not Terdo?
On Sunday, I got into a discussion on twitter with Grant McAuley, who works for the Atlanta-based radio station 92.9 - The Game. Grant is a wonderful guy to follow on twitter and is very approachable. After Joey Terdoslavich blasted a three-run bomb against the Blue Jays, he tweeted...
Obviously, we are a long way away from getting to the point where Terdo has claimed much playing time for the Braves, but as Jim Powell on Braves radio pointed out, this Braves team is void of much power. That happens when you trade away Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis. The trio combined for 62 of the team's paltry 123 homers last season. Quick - name a guy capable of hitting 20 homeruns for the Braves in 2015. If you've named more than one player, you are really optimistic.
But maybe not...if that second player is Terdo. Now, that is still a little high for Terdo, who's 150-game average in the minors is about 17 HR, but at least we are in the neighborhood, right? So, again, why are we so convinced Terdo only profiles as a guy battling for bench time?
Joey T originally came onto the scene in 2011 for the Lynchburg Hillcats when he blitzed the pitcher's league for a .286/.341/.526 slash line, helped out by a Carolina League-high 52 doubles and 20 homers. That 52nd double, by the way, didn't just lead the league. It broke a 65-year-old record. Overall, it was an impressive season that only became more impressive when he was one of the hitting stars of the Arizona Fall League after the season. In 99 plate appearances, Terdo OPS'd .972. Pretty good 2011 to hang your hat on.
The only problem was that the player development team saw something no one else did. "Let's move him to third to give us a potential replacement for Chipper Jones. He's occasionally played there. Oh, and let's bump him up to AAA." Frank Wren's team gets a lot of blame for things they probably shouldn't be blamed for, but that was a bonehead move. I watched Terdo a lot that year with Lynchburg as I lived minutes from City Stadium at the time. I loved him. He was a fan favorite. He was also defensively limited at first base. Simple baseball logic states that if your range is average-to-bad at first, it'll be even worse at third.
And it was. And the bypassing AA at the same time hurt Terdo's development. After two ugly months where he couldn't field and it probably hurt his hitting, Terdo was sent to Mississippi and retired his third baseman glove. He rebounded with a great summer for the M-Braves and was back on track, even if he wouldn't increase his value by becoming a third baseman. He did play more left and right field as he moved to Gwinnett in 2013. He was tremendous for the G-Braves, posting a .557 SLG with Gwinnett and eventually getting a promotion to the majors on July 4th of that year. Fredi used him as a bench bat, taking advantage of his switch-hit capabilities, while starting him just 14 out of 55 games he appeared in. He didn't hit particularly well, though he showed good patience.
It looked like Terdo was a favorite to make the 2014 roster, but he was a late cut and it appeared to affect him. He got off to a decent start, but soon was in a nose dive that lasted until the end of June. We'd like to think a demotion would start a fire under a player's butt, but it seemed to do the opposite to Terdo. He would rebound, though, and hit .300 in July and sustained an OPS over .820 over the final two months. The Braves utilized Terdo at the end of the season largely in a PH role.
I've been pretty consistent with one theme that I think the Braves have to look at this spring and into the season. If a guy can hit and will hit, the Braves have to be willing to give him a chance. Look at this roster - I'll wait. Where's the offense coming from? That's a legitimate question. The Braves offense from 2014 was miserable and this offseason saw 3 of their best 4 hitters traded. Now, maybe Kevin Seitzer's new philosophy will help unearth some new production from the holdovers, but even with that, the Braves still have massive offensive questions. If Terdo can hit, why not him in right if Nick Markakis misses time? Why not Terdo in left platooning with Johnny Gomes?
Well...there are potential issues with Terdo. First, his defense is pretty bad and would require a caddy option for late inning games (but so would Gomes). Second, he has yet to hit major league pitching, but neither has pretty much any of the other options. Third, his name is really long. Not sure if that matters, but I'm told lists require at least three things.
On the plus side, like expected platoon option Zoilo Almonte, Terdo has historically hit right-hand pitching significantly better than left-hand pitching (which is why Gomes is here).
We have talked all camp about how many spots are wide-open for players to swoop in and take them. The fifth starter, two bullpen spots, the infield bench slots, and yes, the outfield. If Terdo hits and there is a right-hander on the mound on opening day, Terdo should be in the starting lineup...but that's where the business of baseball comes in. Almonte, like Eury Perez, is out of options. That might push the Braves to give them a longer look, especially in Melvin Upton Jr.'s absence. If Markakis makes it back, that takes up another spot. Since Eric Young Jr. is so beloved by Fredi, it would appear with Markakis in the mix along with Gomes, there might be one or two extra outfield spots. Maybe the Braves keep Almonte and Perez until Upton's return forces a decision. That would appear to push out Terdo, who can only play first on the infield.
Again, it's supposedly wide open for any player to take a spot. If that's true, why not Terdo?
Joey Terdoslavich with a 3-run HR. He's making a case to grab a spot on the bench - batting .333 with 5 XBH in 24 AB this spring. #Braves
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) March 15, 2015
My comment to him and what started a short discussion yesterday was...
@grantmcauley At this point, he might be making a case to be in the opening day lineup.
— Tommy Poe (@WalkOffWalk1) March 15, 2015
He laughed it off and said let's not get carried away, but did mention later that Fredi Gonzalez, after the game, said that Terdo would get a look at a couple of positions on the team., including a bench spot. |
| Stacy Revere | Getty Images |
But maybe not...if that second player is Terdo. Now, that is still a little high for Terdo, who's 150-game average in the minors is about 17 HR, but at least we are in the neighborhood, right? So, again, why are we so convinced Terdo only profiles as a guy battling for bench time?
Joey T originally came onto the scene in 2011 for the Lynchburg Hillcats when he blitzed the pitcher's league for a .286/.341/.526 slash line, helped out by a Carolina League-high 52 doubles and 20 homers. That 52nd double, by the way, didn't just lead the league. It broke a 65-year-old record. Overall, it was an impressive season that only became more impressive when he was one of the hitting stars of the Arizona Fall League after the season. In 99 plate appearances, Terdo OPS'd .972. Pretty good 2011 to hang your hat on.
The only problem was that the player development team saw something no one else did. "Let's move him to third to give us a potential replacement for Chipper Jones. He's occasionally played there. Oh, and let's bump him up to AAA." Frank Wren's team gets a lot of blame for things they probably shouldn't be blamed for, but that was a bonehead move. I watched Terdo a lot that year with Lynchburg as I lived minutes from City Stadium at the time. I loved him. He was a fan favorite. He was also defensively limited at first base. Simple baseball logic states that if your range is average-to-bad at first, it'll be even worse at third.
And it was. And the bypassing AA at the same time hurt Terdo's development. After two ugly months where he couldn't field and it probably hurt his hitting, Terdo was sent to Mississippi and retired his third baseman glove. He rebounded with a great summer for the M-Braves and was back on track, even if he wouldn't increase his value by becoming a third baseman. He did play more left and right field as he moved to Gwinnett in 2013. He was tremendous for the G-Braves, posting a .557 SLG with Gwinnett and eventually getting a promotion to the majors on July 4th of that year. Fredi used him as a bench bat, taking advantage of his switch-hit capabilities, while starting him just 14 out of 55 games he appeared in. He didn't hit particularly well, though he showed good patience.
It looked like Terdo was a favorite to make the 2014 roster, but he was a late cut and it appeared to affect him. He got off to a decent start, but soon was in a nose dive that lasted until the end of June. We'd like to think a demotion would start a fire under a player's butt, but it seemed to do the opposite to Terdo. He would rebound, though, and hit .300 in July and sustained an OPS over .820 over the final two months. The Braves utilized Terdo at the end of the season largely in a PH role.
I've been pretty consistent with one theme that I think the Braves have to look at this spring and into the season. If a guy can hit and will hit, the Braves have to be willing to give him a chance. Look at this roster - I'll wait. Where's the offense coming from? That's a legitimate question. The Braves offense from 2014 was miserable and this offseason saw 3 of their best 4 hitters traded. Now, maybe Kevin Seitzer's new philosophy will help unearth some new production from the holdovers, but even with that, the Braves still have massive offensive questions. If Terdo can hit, why not him in right if Nick Markakis misses time? Why not Terdo in left platooning with Johnny Gomes?
Well...there are potential issues with Terdo. First, his defense is pretty bad and would require a caddy option for late inning games (but so would Gomes). Second, he has yet to hit major league pitching, but neither has pretty much any of the other options. Third, his name is really long. Not sure if that matters, but I'm told lists require at least three things.
On the plus side, like expected platoon option Zoilo Almonte, Terdo has historically hit right-hand pitching significantly better than left-hand pitching (which is why Gomes is here).
We have talked all camp about how many spots are wide-open for players to swoop in and take them. The fifth starter, two bullpen spots, the infield bench slots, and yes, the outfield. If Terdo hits and there is a right-hander on the mound on opening day, Terdo should be in the starting lineup...but that's where the business of baseball comes in. Almonte, like Eury Perez, is out of options. That might push the Braves to give them a longer look, especially in Melvin Upton Jr.'s absence. If Markakis makes it back, that takes up another spot. Since Eric Young Jr. is so beloved by Fredi, it would appear with Markakis in the mix along with Gomes, there might be one or two extra outfield spots. Maybe the Braves keep Almonte and Perez until Upton's return forces a decision. That would appear to push out Terdo, who can only play first on the infield.
Again, it's supposedly wide open for any player to take a spot. If that's true, why not Terdo?
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Roster Prediction: Where the 25 Stand (March 15 Edition)
Last Sunday, I had my first 25-man prediction. Obviously, we are still a couple of weeks before having a better idea of where the Braves stand, but it's still fun to guess. Let's see how things have changed. Spoiler: Not too much yet.
Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Eric Stults (up from #5 starter)
5. Wandy Rodriguez (added to rotation)
Dropping: #4 Mike Minor
My Take? With the news this week that confirmed that Minor will miss the start of the year, it opened a spot for someone to step in and after a weak first start, Wandy has looked much better. This may come down to the Braves wanting to see if Stults or Wandy can have some early success and possibly turn that into a trade. Cody Martin has looked impressive at times, but he has options. Chien-Ming Wang had been a bit of a sleeper until stinking it up on Saturday.
Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
LH - James Russell
LH - Josh Outman
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Michael Kohn
My Take? The first five are set in stone (though roles aren't set), but that still leaves two open spots for competition. After a week of action, I haven't wavered from my original two picks. You can look at Brady Feigl, who profiled here, but I imagine injuries will have to pile up for Feigl to jump to the bigs. Justin Jackson and Sugar Ray Marimon have also looked good, though I think they are playing for a look later in case a spot opens in May or June. If Martin makes a surprising jump to the rotation, could we see Wandy or Stults go to the pen? Possibly.
Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C
Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B/OF - Joey Terdoslavich
IF - Alberto Callaspo
OF Eury Perez (added to bench)
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
Dropping: UT Kelly Johnson
My Take? Not yet ready to make a lineup adjustment, though I am leaning toward dropping Almonte from the LF platoon in favor of Terdo, who has raked this spring. His minor league numbers don't scream platoon like Almonte's do, but if he's going to hit, who cares? If Almonte drops from a time share at one of the outfield slots, could he lose his job on the team? Absolutely and in that case, I imagine Phil Gosselin will get a longer look. As for KJ...he hasn't hit...at all. That said, if Markakis misses the start of the year, it could open a spot for KJ to sneak onto the team. Also, in that case, I imagine Jace will bat second. He might hit there anyway and maybe Markakis will be in the five spot regardless.
Truthfully, I could spend all days with just those eight guys and come up with a billion different examples.
Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Eric Stults (up from #5 starter)
5. Wandy Rodriguez (added to rotation)
Dropping: #4 Mike Minor
My Take? With the news this week that confirmed that Minor will miss the start of the year, it opened a spot for someone to step in and after a weak first start, Wandy has looked much better. This may come down to the Braves wanting to see if Stults or Wandy can have some early success and possibly turn that into a trade. Cody Martin has looked impressive at times, but he has options. Chien-Ming Wang had been a bit of a sleeper until stinking it up on Saturday.
Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
LH - James Russell
LH - Josh Outman
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Michael Kohn
My Take? The first five are set in stone (though roles aren't set), but that still leaves two open spots for competition. After a week of action, I haven't wavered from my original two picks. You can look at Brady Feigl, who profiled here, but I imagine injuries will have to pile up for Feigl to jump to the bigs. Justin Jackson and Sugar Ray Marimon have also looked good, though I think they are playing for a look later in case a spot opens in May or June. If Martin makes a surprising jump to the rotation, could we see Wandy or Stults go to the pen? Possibly.
Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C
Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B/OF - Joey Terdoslavich
IF - Alberto Callaspo
OF Eury Perez (added to bench)
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
Dropping: UT Kelly Johnson
My Take? Not yet ready to make a lineup adjustment, though I am leaning toward dropping Almonte from the LF platoon in favor of Terdo, who has raked this spring. His minor league numbers don't scream platoon like Almonte's do, but if he's going to hit, who cares? If Almonte drops from a time share at one of the outfield slots, could he lose his job on the team? Absolutely and in that case, I imagine Phil Gosselin will get a longer look. As for KJ...he hasn't hit...at all. That said, if Markakis misses the start of the year, it could open a spot for KJ to sneak onto the team. Also, in that case, I imagine Jace will bat second. He might hit there anyway and maybe Markakis will be in the five spot regardless.
Truthfully, I could spend all days with just those eight guys and come up with a billion different examples.
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Roster Prediction: Where the 25 Stand
Ah, yes, it's that time of spring where we make often wrong predictions of what the 25-man roster will look like when the season opens. I'll even go the extra mile with a lineup. I hope to do this every Sunday morning until the season begins.
Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Mike Minor
5. Eric Stults
My Take? Simply put, Stults out-pitched Wandy Rodriguez in their first outings and I think Michael Foltynewicz is a little behind them both in perception and as a result of the Braves hoping to get Folty some more development time. That said, things can change and I believe Folty's chances of making the roster would improve dramatically if Mike Minor's MRI doesn't come up looking good.
Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
LH - James Russell
LH - Josh Outman
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Jose Veras
My Take? Tough to get a real read on the bullpen due to a lot of pitchers having a bad first outing, but Avilan took a step forward with his effort against the Tigers and we all know Fredi Gonzalez loves him. Unless his production falls to unacceptable levels, I imagine Avilan will be in the mix unless traded. Jose Veras is definitely on the bubble with Michael Kohn and Arodys Vizcaino around.
Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C
Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B/OF - Joey Terdoslavich
IF - Alberto Callaspo
UT - Kelly Johnson
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
My Take? Again, it's tough to get a read this early in camp or to know what the lineup will look like, especially since Markakis is hurt, but if he does start the year with the team, I imagine he'll be in the first or second spots. If it were me, I'd have Jace hitting first, but I am going with Fredi's love of VROOMMMMM! Eury Perez could be a fit for added defensive flexibility and a guy like Philip Gosselin could also make some noise. Both could also benefit from Markakis opening the year on the DL. Personally, I'd keep Eury over EY, but this is a prediction of what will happen and not so much what will happen.
Is it me or could you literally bat any player not named Freeman in four-or-five other spots? I don't think I've ever seen a harder to predict Braves lineup before.
Starting Rotation
1. Julio Teheran
2. Alex Wood
3. Shelby Miller
4. Mike Minor
5. Eric Stults
My Take? Simply put, Stults out-pitched Wandy Rodriguez in their first outings and I think Michael Foltynewicz is a little behind them both in perception and as a result of the Braves hoping to get Folty some more development time. That said, things can change and I believe Folty's chances of making the roster would improve dramatically if Mike Minor's MRI doesn't come up looking good.
Bullpen
Closer - Craig Kimbrel
RH - Jason Grilli
RH - Jim Johnson
LH - James Russell
LH - Josh Outman
---
LH - Luis Avilan
RH - Jose Veras
My Take? Tough to get a real read on the bullpen due to a lot of pitchers having a bad first outing, but Avilan took a step forward with his effort against the Tigers and we all know Fredi Gonzalez loves him. Unless his production falls to unacceptable levels, I imagine Avilan will be in the mix unless traded. Jose Veras is definitely on the bubble with Michael Kohn and Arodys Vizcaino around.
Lineup
1. Eric Young Jr., CF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Chris Johnson, 3B
5. Jonny Gomes / Zoilo Almonte, LF
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
7. Jace Peterson, 2B
8. Christian Bethancourt, C
Bench
C - A.J. Pierzynski
1B/OF - Joey Terdoslavich
IF - Alberto Callaspo
UT - Kelly Johnson
OF - LF Platoon Guy Not Starting (Gomes/Almonte)
My Take? Again, it's tough to get a read this early in camp or to know what the lineup will look like, especially since Markakis is hurt, but if he does start the year with the team, I imagine he'll be in the first or second spots. If it were me, I'd have Jace hitting first, but I am going with Fredi's love of VROOMMMMM! Eury Perez could be a fit for added defensive flexibility and a guy like Philip Gosselin could also make some noise. Both could also benefit from Markakis opening the year on the DL. Personally, I'd keep Eury over EY, but this is a prediction of what will happen and not so much what will happen.
Is it me or could you literally bat any player not named Freeman in four-or-five other spots? I don't think I've ever seen a harder to predict Braves lineup before.
Friday, March 6, 2015
Braves Roster Beat: March 5 (About.com)
Going to try to post once a day during spring training with a player who had a good game and a player who didn't. Today's post for About.com looks at the win over the Tigers. Players like Philip Gosselin, John Buck, and Joey Terdoslavich were impressive while Jason Hursh, Kelly Johnson, and Ian Thomas had some down moments. Read about which players received a special focus. Thanks and I enjoy all comments.
Click to Read!
Click to Read!
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Spring Training Preview: Outfield
Previous previews: Starting Rotation / Bullpen / Catcher & Infield
The Atlanta Braves have invested at least $48M into the outfield this offseason to go with an additional $46.35M that was already on the books. Regardless, many believe that this might be one of the worst outfields in baseball. Too bad money can't buy talent. Well, it should, but apparently, it doesn't.
Welcome to the last pre-spring training preview for the pre-Braves. While there are question marks all over the team, some of the biggest remain in the outfield, which was gutted by trades. With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Doumit, Jason Heyward, and Justin Upton. The first two names were crash-and-burn utility types that struggled with the Braves, but the losses of Heyward and Upton in the same offseason will be particularly difficult to replace. While there is a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that Heyward was not the offensive juggernaut that many projected him to be, for a team that didn't get on base last year, replacing a .351 OBP is no easy task. Nor is replacing Upton's 29 HR and .270/.342/.491 slash. Again, like Heyward, reasonable people can say Upton was not the player many projected him to be. Even so, that's a 7 WAR player over the last two years the Braves will not have around in 2015.
The simple replacement for Heyward is the $44M man, Nick Markakis. My thoughts on the deal are both on this blog and at my About.com site, but suffice it to say, I get why people argue that Markakis replaces Heyward in many ways with the bat. I also understand if people think Markakis replaces Heyward in the field considering he has two Gold Gloves. I get it, but the Braves did take a step back in right field and the reasons are clear.
Now, that's not to say the Braves should have kept Heyward, whose contract extension should be an interesting one considering his collection of all-around talent and potential to get better. No, my point is simply that this isn't a lateral move. The Braves are worse in right field. It's worth adding that Markakis's neck surgery is not expected to keep him from being ready for spring training.
Let's get one thing straight. The Braves do not have a better option than B.J. Upton. I'll mention a slew of guys who are around in the bench section of this article, but the Braves' best option is to play Justin's older brother and hope the work Melvin has put in this offseason with new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer pays off. We can look at B.J.'s problems all day, but a couple of things stand out to me. His groundball rate is up from the 40% range it was in his final three years with the Rays to about 44% with the Braves. That means less flyballs. Less flyballs means less extra base hits. Less extra base hits means less value. Less value loses games.
Whether it was his vision problem or a swing problem, B.J.'s not getting around on fastballs. He either misses or beats them into the ground. When he does elevate them, he tends to pop them up. Contrary to what you've seen with B.J. as a Brave, he was a pretty good fastball hitter with the Rays. The uppercut in his swing has always made him a good breaking ball hitter (and he was last year), but 60% of the time, he's being thrown fastballs. That's nothing abnormal, but he used to hit those pretty solidly, especially in his last two seasons with the Rays. This has led to a notable decrease in Zone-Contact% from over 80% with the Rays to about 73% with the Braves. That's a lot of pitches in the zone that he's swinging and missing on.
He still remains the best option for the Braves. That's not to prop up the guy or anything, but it's an observation based on the alternatives and the fact that B.J., despite his defensive miscues from time-to-time, is still a pretty good defender. His speed and generally smart routes is supported by a decent rate in Inside Edge Fielding on balls that have a remote or unlikely chance of being fielded.
The Braves do not have one player capable of being an everyday guy in left. I have blogged a couple of times that the best option is likely a platoon and I think the two best options for that platoon are Zoilo Almonte and Jonny Gomes. The latter was brought in specifically to be the right-hand hitting portion of a platoon. Oh, and to crack jokes in the clubhouse. Whether he's funny or not withstanding, he remains a threat against left-hand starters and relievers alike. Even though he has a vesting option for 2016, I imagine he will be trade bait unless the Braves are THE surprise club of 2015. Almonte is a switch-hitter and probably a better fielder, which allows him to caddy Gomes. In addition, he has shown a good ability to hit right-handed pitching in the minors. Together, they could make a solid platoon that - again - could combine for an .800 or so OPS.
But there are certainly other options. Recently signed Eric Young Jr. has received a lot of positive press, though I imagine it's because people still think he's the hitter his dad was. Young possesses a career .662 OPS for a reason. The good news is that he's a fairly skilled defender, especially in left field. With his speed and ability to move to the infield in the pinch along with playing center if needed, that could be enough to secure a spot on the bench. Still, if EY Jr. is starting for you more than a handful of times per month, you should see what you have in Gwinnett.
Which might be Eury Perez, a guy I profiled when the Braves claimed him. Perez has hit pretty solidly at least in terms of batting average in the minors, but shows little plate discipline and appears vulnerable to righties. He's a better defender than Young and if the Braves absolutely want to play someone over B.J., Perez is likely the only option who can at least match, if not surpass, B.J.'s defensive capabilities in center.
Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham should have a youtube series about hijinks in Gwinnett. The two have been stuck in AAA for the last few years trying to get an opportunity. Terdo can move to first if you need him to, but is limited to a substandard corner outfielder otherwise. He's displayed pretty good power in the minors at times and his switch-hit bat could interest the Braves as a bench option, though I doubt he'll be part of the LF battle royale unless he's sold his soul for a better hit tool. Cunningham didn't play in the majors last year, but did post a .754 OPS in the minors, which is good for his second-best OPS. He has the skills and intelligence to play a passable center field and if he sustains pop from last year (28 2B, 8 HR), he could push Perez on the depth chart.
Jose Constanza is still alive.
Another option is Dian Toscano. The 25 year-old who hits from the left side is probably limited to left field, but the Braves liked the Cuban enough to promise him a nice major league contract. Kelly Johnson has played left field, including 50 games with the Rays in 2013, and even picked up a start in right field last year. You might think he would be a reasonable possibility to platoon with the right-hand-hitting Gomes, but KJ oddly has reserve splits, though the discrepancy is not that notable. Oh, Cedric Hunter got an invite to spring training after hitting .295/.386/.495 for Mississippi last year, but don't get your hopes up. Hunter was last a prospect in 2008.
Did I miss anyone? How the outfield takes shape may ultimately be decided by who is out of options at the end of spring training for another team and is getting squeezed out, such as the case with Juan Francisco in 2012. No matter how you slice it, there will be a lot of players battling for playing time, especially in left field. Whether the outfield is as bad as people thinks may ultimately depend on if B.J. can at least approach a league average production at the plate. With his speed and defense, that would give him, and the team, a good amount of value. Without those fairly low expectations for B.J. being reached, I can see why some have ranked the Braves outfield among the worst in the game. This is where you say, "that's why they play the game and baseball players aren't computers."
The Atlanta Braves have invested at least $48M into the outfield this offseason to go with an additional $46.35M that was already on the books. Regardless, many believe that this might be one of the worst outfields in baseball. Too bad money can't buy talent. Well, it should, but apparently, it doesn't.
Welcome to the last pre-spring training preview for the pre-Braves. While there are question marks all over the team, some of the biggest remain in the outfield, which was gutted by trades. With that in mind, let's say goodbye to... Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Doumit, Jason Heyward, and Justin Upton. The first two names were crash-and-burn utility types that struggled with the Braves, but the losses of Heyward and Upton in the same offseason will be particularly difficult to replace. While there is a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that Heyward was not the offensive juggernaut that many projected him to be, for a team that didn't get on base last year, replacing a .351 OBP is no easy task. Nor is replacing Upton's 29 HR and .270/.342/.491 slash. Again, like Heyward, reasonable people can say Upton was not the player many projected him to be. Even so, that's a 7 WAR player over the last two years the Braves will not have around in 2015.
Right Field
- Age - Markakis is six years older than Heyward. While the latter is entering the prime of his career, the former will likely be heading into the post-prime of his. Heyward can improve while Markakis has a strong chance to get worse.
- Defense - Gold Gloves are nice and I'm sure the Braves have proprietary defensive metrics that likely state Markakis is better than the widely available defensive metrics argue, but Heyward's defense was top notch. Even if Markakis outplays his is typically below league average UZR, he will look bad compared to Heyward.
- Baserunning - Well, duh.
Now, that's not to say the Braves should have kept Heyward, whose contract extension should be an interesting one considering his collection of all-around talent and potential to get better. No, my point is simply that this isn't a lateral move. The Braves are worse in right field. It's worth adding that Markakis's neck surgery is not expected to keep him from being ready for spring training.
Center Field
Whether it was his vision problem or a swing problem, B.J.'s not getting around on fastballs. He either misses or beats them into the ground. When he does elevate them, he tends to pop them up. Contrary to what you've seen with B.J. as a Brave, he was a pretty good fastball hitter with the Rays. The uppercut in his swing has always made him a good breaking ball hitter (and he was last year), but 60% of the time, he's being thrown fastballs. That's nothing abnormal, but he used to hit those pretty solidly, especially in his last two seasons with the Rays. This has led to a notable decrease in Zone-Contact% from over 80% with the Rays to about 73% with the Braves. That's a lot of pitches in the zone that he's swinging and missing on.
He still remains the best option for the Braves. That's not to prop up the guy or anything, but it's an observation based on the alternatives and the fact that B.J., despite his defensive miscues from time-to-time, is still a pretty good defender. His speed and generally smart routes is supported by a decent rate in Inside Edge Fielding on balls that have a remote or unlikely chance of being fielded.
Left Field/Bench
The Braves do not have one player capable of being an everyday guy in left. I have blogged a couple of times that the best option is likely a platoon and I think the two best options for that platoon are Zoilo Almonte and Jonny Gomes. The latter was brought in specifically to be the right-hand hitting portion of a platoon. Oh, and to crack jokes in the clubhouse. Whether he's funny or not withstanding, he remains a threat against left-hand starters and relievers alike. Even though he has a vesting option for 2016, I imagine he will be trade bait unless the Braves are THE surprise club of 2015. Almonte is a switch-hitter and probably a better fielder, which allows him to caddy Gomes. In addition, he has shown a good ability to hit right-handed pitching in the minors. Together, they could make a solid platoon that - again - could combine for an .800 or so OPS.
But there are certainly other options. Recently signed Eric Young Jr. has received a lot of positive press, though I imagine it's because people still think he's the hitter his dad was. Young possesses a career .662 OPS for a reason. The good news is that he's a fairly skilled defender, especially in left field. With his speed and ability to move to the infield in the pinch along with playing center if needed, that could be enough to secure a spot on the bench. Still, if EY Jr. is starting for you more than a handful of times per month, you should see what you have in Gwinnett.
Which might be Eury Perez, a guy I profiled when the Braves claimed him. Perez has hit pretty solidly at least in terms of batting average in the minors, but shows little plate discipline and appears vulnerable to righties. He's a better defender than Young and if the Braves absolutely want to play someone over B.J., Perez is likely the only option who can at least match, if not surpass, B.J.'s defensive capabilities in center.
Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham should have a youtube series about hijinks in Gwinnett. The two have been stuck in AAA for the last few years trying to get an opportunity. Terdo can move to first if you need him to, but is limited to a substandard corner outfielder otherwise. He's displayed pretty good power in the minors at times and his switch-hit bat could interest the Braves as a bench option, though I doubt he'll be part of the LF battle royale unless he's sold his soul for a better hit tool. Cunningham didn't play in the majors last year, but did post a .754 OPS in the minors, which is good for his second-best OPS. He has the skills and intelligence to play a passable center field and if he sustains pop from last year (28 2B, 8 HR), he could push Perez on the depth chart.
Jose Constanza is still alive.
Another option is Dian Toscano. The 25 year-old who hits from the left side is probably limited to left field, but the Braves liked the Cuban enough to promise him a nice major league contract. Kelly Johnson has played left field, including 50 games with the Rays in 2013, and even picked up a start in right field last year. You might think he would be a reasonable possibility to platoon with the right-hand-hitting Gomes, but KJ oddly has reserve splits, though the discrepancy is not that notable. Oh, Cedric Hunter got an invite to spring training after hitting .295/.386/.495 for Mississippi last year, but don't get your hopes up. Hunter was last a prospect in 2008.
Did I miss anyone? How the outfield takes shape may ultimately be decided by who is out of options at the end of spring training for another team and is getting squeezed out, such as the case with Juan Francisco in 2012. No matter how you slice it, there will be a lot of players battling for playing time, especially in left field. Whether the outfield is as bad as people thinks may ultimately depend on if B.J. can at least approach a league average production at the plate. With his speed and defense, that would give him, and the team, a good amount of value. Without those fairly low expectations for B.J. being reached, I can see why some have ranked the Braves outfield among the worst in the game. This is where you say, "that's why they play the game and baseball players aren't computers."
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Breaking News: Atlanta Braves Spring Roster Balloons to 231 Players
You can't say that John Hart has been passive this winter.
In addition to all of the big moves and the recent additions of Kelly Johnson and Jonny Gomes, the Braves claimed Eury Perez off waivers from the New York Yankees Friday night. So, add him to the collection of players who will come to spring training and battle for playing time while the casual Braves fans try to figure out who the hell are all these people playing for the Braves this season.
Perez, a 24 year-old outfielder, is a veteran of eight professional seasons including the last six state-side. He's also appeared in the majors for three ultra-short cups of coffee. A former Washington National prospect, Perez twice took home the organizational Fastest Baserunner honor that Baseball America dishes out along with once being named the Best Defensive OF in the system. He was also twice a Top 10 prospect for the Nats.
Over the last couple of seasons, Perez stagnated in AAA while also failing to stay healthy. He hit .310/.371/.409 last season in the minors, which outside of some rehab work in the lower levels, was spent with Syracuse in the International League. He played a good deal of right field, which typically raises an eyebrow when center fielders get moved to the corner. Usually, that means defensive issues. But I just said he was honored as the Best Defensive OF in the Nats system once. Brian Goodwin, who might have a chance to replace Denard Span in CF, had moved to AAA so that helps explain that. The better prospect always gets the time.
After Washington picked up Pedro Florimon off waivers in September, they waived Perez to open a spot. The Yankees followed by claiming Perez and sending Josh Outman away, who is now one of Perez's teammates. So, what kind of player is Perez? And could he replace B.J. Upton as some have wondered because, yeah, that's going to totally happen. The following breakdown covers both minor league numbers and the brief time spent in the majors.
There does appear to be some platoon possibilities with Perez, who was good against righties last year, average in 2012, and pretty bad in 2013 & 2011. But his numbers against southpaws have traditionally been very good. Unfortunately for him, Gomes just signed.
Since the Braves appear to not believe that Todd Cunningham is a legitimate option in center, Perez rockets up the charts to B.J.'s backup and the out-of-options outfielder will have every opportunity to win a spot this spring on a wide-open roster. On a team that might have to steal a lot of bases to press the issue, Perez could have some value both off the bench and, if BJ struggles, he could steal some time from the high-priced outfielder. Perez probably won't be much more than a fourth outfielder, who at best, could do a Juan Pierre impression. On a good team, he'd be in AAA. On a bad team...well, he starts to looks a lot better than he really is. So, I fully expect him to make the roster.
In addition to all of the big moves and the recent additions of Kelly Johnson and Jonny Gomes, the Braves claimed Eury Perez off waivers from the New York Yankees Friday night. So, add him to the collection of players who will come to spring training and battle for playing time while the casual Braves fans try to figure out who the hell are all these people playing for the Braves this season.
Perez, a 24 year-old outfielder, is a veteran of eight professional seasons including the last six state-side. He's also appeared in the majors for three ultra-short cups of coffee. A former Washington National prospect, Perez twice took home the organizational Fastest Baserunner honor that Baseball America dishes out along with once being named the Best Defensive OF in the system. He was also twice a Top 10 prospect for the Nats.
Over the last couple of seasons, Perez stagnated in AAA while also failing to stay healthy. He hit .310/.371/.409 last season in the minors, which outside of some rehab work in the lower levels, was spent with Syracuse in the International League. He played a good deal of right field, which typically raises an eyebrow when center fielders get moved to the corner. Usually, that means defensive issues. But I just said he was honored as the Best Defensive OF in the Nats system once. Brian Goodwin, who might have a chance to replace Denard Span in CF, had moved to AAA so that helps explain that. The better prospect always gets the time.
After Washington picked up Pedro Florimon off waivers in September, they waived Perez to open a spot. The Yankees followed by claiming Perez and sending Josh Outman away, who is now one of Perez's teammates. So, what kind of player is Perez? And could he replace B.J. Upton as some have wondered because, yeah, that's going to totally happen. The following breakdown covers both minor league numbers and the brief time spent in the majors.
| Year | vsRHP | vsLHP |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | .289/.363/.370 | .342/.369/.468 |
| 2013 | .273/.317/.372 | .353/.369/.521 |
| 2012 | .307/.340/.339 | .327/.350/.410 |
| 2011 | .261/.303/.317 | .321/.354/.328 |
Since the Braves appear to not believe that Todd Cunningham is a legitimate option in center, Perez rockets up the charts to B.J.'s backup and the out-of-options outfielder will have every opportunity to win a spot this spring on a wide-open roster. On a team that might have to steal a lot of bases to press the issue, Perez could have some value both off the bench and, if BJ struggles, he could steal some time from the high-priced outfielder. Perez probably won't be much more than a fourth outfielder, who at best, could do a Juan Pierre impression. On a good team, he'd be in AAA. On a bad team...well, he starts to looks a lot better than he really is. So, I fully expect him to make the roster.
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