Monday Roundup: Bad Innings Lead to Losing Streak

Spring training results are more about individual player performances, especially those competing for a job, than they are win-loss records. This week, the Braves had some big individual performances, but a few players have truly put themselves on the outside looking in after some bad outings. Here's your Monday Roundup for the second week of spring training games.

Chaz Roe struggled against the Tigers / Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

TIGERS 10, Braves 7

Chaz Roe's spring debut was about as awful as he could have hoped. He faced six batters and all of them reached base. Jason Hursh entered and was able to get out of the inning, but when you add the three runs he surrendered to the five runs Roe gave up, the Tigers had turned a 6-2 deficit into a 10-6 lead. R.A. Dickey got the start and surrendered two runs, one of them earned. Arodys Vizcaino also got into action with a 2-K perfect frame. The star pitcher of the day, though, was Max Fried. Facing Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton, Fried worked a perfect inning with a strikeout of Upton - who the Braves traded in the deal that brought Fried to the Braves. At the plate, Micah Johnson started in right field and went 1-for-3 with 2 BB. Dansby Swanson and Adonis Garcia each had three-hit games.

Who helped himself the most? Johnson
Who hurt himself the most? Roe

BRAVES 2, Cardinals 0

Mike Foltynewicz had a fun first inning. He gave up two hits and walked a batter, yet faced the minimum after two pickoffs yielded three outs. Josh Collmenter tossed two scoreless to match Folty's two scoreless innings and the veteran righty got the win after Brandon Phillips doubled in a pair in the fourth. That was all the Braves needed. After Collmenter left,  Jim Johnson entered and pitched a quiet inning. Lucas Sims (2 ING) and Patrick Weigel (1 ING) kept the Cards at bay before Mauricio Cabrera's 100 mph heat finished the game in the ninth. Freddie Freeman had half of the Braves' four hits with Ender Inciarte adding a single.

Who helped himself the most? Collmenter
Who hurt himself the most? Rio Ruiz (0-for-3, K)

By: Keith Allison via Flickr (CC BY-SA 4.0)

YANKEES 8, Braves 7

The kids led a furious rally as the Braves scored seven runs in the 7th and 8th innings to make a blowout much closer, but Atlanta still came up short in their first night game of the spring. Jaime Garcia surrendered a run in his Braves debu and Matt Wisler struggled tremendously in his two-inning stint that followed. After a quiet 2-K frame from Ian Krol, the Yankees teed off on Sean Newcomb, who couldn't locate his pitches with any authority. The Braves' rally began with the aid of David Freitas and Balbino Fuenmayor, who each had singles with one out in the 7th. After an error led to a run, Johan Camargo hit a three-run bomb. Micah Johnson, who started in right field and also played center, followed Camargo's moonshot with a homer of his own. Atlanta's power showed up again in the 8th when Adam Walker hit a two-run opposite-field homer. Despite Luke Jackson and Eric O'Flaherty keeping the game close after Newcomb's disaster, Atlanta couldn't finish the comeback. Of particular interest was Jace Peterson starting at shortstop. A former minor league shortstop, Peterson might be counted on to fill in from time-to-time if the Braves decline to keep Chase D'Arnaud. Sadly, the Braves received some bad news as Dustin Peterson broke his a bone in his left hand on a check swing during the game and will miss at least two months.

Who helped himself the most? Johnson
Who hurt himself the most? Wisler

CARDINALS 9, Braves 4

John Danks has not had a good spring so far. After relieving Bartolo Colon with a 3-2 lead in the fourth, Danks gave up three runs in two innings to take the loss. Blaine Boyer, who is also trying to make the roster after signing a minor league deal, gave up a three-run homer in his only inning of work. Jose Ramirez also gave up a homer in the 8th. The only real positive sign was Paco Rodriguez, who pitched a perfect 7th with a strikeout. It was his first outing since 2015. The Braves had jumped out to a 3-0 lead after Dansby Swanson, who led off, homered to begin the game. Later in the inning, Adam "Walk-Off" Walker hit his second two-run homer in as many games. Ronald Acuna, who started in center, went 3-for-4 with two doubles, including one that plated the Braves' fourth run. Rio Ruiz got the DH assignment and made the most of it with three hits and a walk.

Who helped himself the most? Ruiz
Who hurt himself the most? Boyer

Red Sox 9, BRAVES 1

Sam Freeman became the latest minor league free agent to have an epic fail of an inning. After Julio Teheran pitched three masterful innings, the lefty Freeman came in to pitch the fourth. He faced seven batters and they all reached base. When the disaster was over, Freeman had given up six runs. The Sox kept scoring, getting single runs off Joel De La Cruz, Aroyds Vizcaino, and Jason Hursh to increase their lead. Atlanta's offense had few answers for the Red Sox pitching. Emilio Bonifacio, who entered for Ender Inciarte, singled and homered to lead the Braves' offense.

Who helped himself the most? Bonifacio
Who hurt himself the most? S. Freeman

Aaron Blair left his start early with an injury /
Editosaurus (Own work) , via Wikimedia Commons

PHILLIES 7, Braves 4 (SS)

Aaron Blair's distant bid to snag a rotation spot wasn't helped by an early exit against the Phillies. Facing Cesar Hernandez to open the bottom of the first, Blair took a hard shot off his non-throwing hand and was immediately lifted. Josh Collmenter was scheduled to pitch next and threw three innings to get the Braves back on schedule. He allowed Hernandez to score, but nothing else. Jesse Biddle took a big step in his return after missing all of 2016 by throwing a scoreless frame against his former mates with a walk and 2 K's. The Braves were leading 4-1 in the 7th when the Phillies exploded all over the duo of Michael Mader and David Hale, who had quietly been signed this winter. For more in-depth analysis on Hale's signing, click here. Back to the game, when the disaster of an inning was over, it was 7-4. Christian Walker hit a homer for the Braves as they managed just four hits.

Who helped himself the most? Collmenter
Who hurt himself the most? Micah Johnson (0-for 3, 2 K)

Marlins 8, BRAVES 6 (SS)

R.A. Dickey was hurt by a Dansby Swanson error and surrendered three unearned runs to go with his two earned runs in his three innings. Ian Krol also gave up a three-run homer as the Braves gave up runs in bunches. Outside of those two, Jim Johnson, Eric O'Flaherty, and Mauricio Cabrera all tossed scoreless innings with Max Fried working two scoreless frames. Swanson did pick up two ribbies and a stolen base. At one point in the game, the Braves had Austin Riley at third and Ronald Acuna and Braxton Davidson flanking Jace Peterson in the outfield. Riley had a pair of hits, including a double, after replacing Adonis Garcia earlier in the game.

Who helped himself the most? O'Flaherty (ING, 2 K)
Who hurt himself the most? Krol

RED SOX 11, Braves 1

For the second time this weekend, the Braves got smacked around by the Red Sox. This time, it would be Patrick Weigel who faced a bunch of batters - six in total - and couldn't retire a single one. All would score. The Red Sox added two more in the long seventh inning off Lucas Sims to turn a 3-1 game into a blowout. Mike Foltynewicz had opened the game with a troublesome first inning, but only gave up one run over three innings. Jose Ramirez worked a quiet inning, which he needed, but Chaz Roe was roughed up again for two runs and now has a 63.00 even ERA. The only other Braves pitcher to work was Blaine Boyer, who pitched a perfect sixth inning. At the plate, Kurt Suzuki singled in Ray-Patrick Didder in the sixth for Atlanta's only run after Didder doubled.

Who helped himself the most? Ramirez
Who hurt himself the most? Roe

Week 2 Record: 1-7
Grapefruit League Record: 2-8, 15th place (last), 5.5 GB

Seven-day Forecast: Idle, @Pirates (ROOT), vs. Phillies, vs. Yankees, vs. Mets, @ Cardinals (FSSE), @Yankees

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Bench

Read previous Spring Roster Battles Previews
Fifth Starter
The Bullpen

I've given the Atlanta Braves plenty of time to make a few more moves - even suggested a couple here and here - but here is the final Spring Roster Battles Preview. Much like the last preview on the bullpen spots, this article will focus on players vying for at least two spots rather than one particular spot up for grabs. Remember that the Braves could go with a four-man bench if the bullpen is eight-large when the season opens. If they go with a more modern seven-guy setup in the pen, the bench will have five spots available. To be clear, I highly doubt that the Braves don't sign or trade for at least one other player to take up one of the open spots, however there may be. Nevertheless, here is where we are right now.

There are two guys we can pretty much write in with pen for 2017 - catcher Kurt Suzuki and utility do-everything-guy Jace Peterson. I'll point out a possible contender for Suzuki, but short of an epic collapse this spring, I am willing to bet the former Twin will break camp with the team. As for Peterson, he has done enough over the last two seasons to stick around. He's better suited for this utility role than the one he tried to fill since coming over from the Padres.

Who will fill the other two - possibly three - spots? Let's meet the contenders.

d'Arnaud by Editosaurus (own work) via Wikipedia Commons

The Can-He-Do-It-Again? Guy and the New Guy: Chase d'Arnaud and Micah Johnson

I am rocking my Lynchburg Hillcats hat at the moment and before the team was an Indians/Braves/Reds affiliate, they developed many of the Pirates prospects - including former fourth round pick Chase d'Arnaud. The shortstop was part of the Mills Cup-winning Hillcats of 2009, a team that featured former Braves farmhands Jamie Romak and Jeff Locke. I loved watching that team and d'Arnaud looked like a good prospect. Unfortunately, he never repeated his success of '09 (.838 OPS) and despite four callups to the majors before 2016, d'Arnaud never impressed. But an arrival with the Braves last spring appeared to unlock some of the potential the Pirates once saw in him. In his first 35 games, including 27 starts, d'Arnaud hit .299/.364/.393. With the failures of Erick Aybar, d'Arnaud became a much preferred option. His early success is why it's a little easy to forget that he slashed .190/.271/.276 over his final 49 games. In the larger scheme of things, it was a successful year for a person void of any success in the majors. In the even larger scheme of things, it was still an underwhelming season.

That said, d'Arnaud has an excellent chance of making this team. The Braves are comfortable with him and he played six positions last year. Historically, his best position is third base, where his limitations in range play up the least, but he can slide over to short and not looked lost there. With no natural backup to Dansby Swanson on the team, d'Arnaud could be a good fit. Also, considering the Braves may decline to carry a fourth outfielder and go with more flexible utility options like Peterson, d'Arnaud could help provide depth there.

A little over a month ago, the Braves acquired Micah Johnson for either cash considerations or a player to be named later. Like d'Arnaud, Johnson was an interesting prospect at once who flamed out in the majors. Unlike d'Arnaud, Johnson has some pretty good minor league stats. I mentioned this when he was picked up, but Johnson has two distinct swings - one that has more torque and power and another that is contact-orientated. I prefer the first as it gives him more value.

Despite a potentially intriguing bat, Johnson's chances to make this club might be completely dependent on his ability to play center field - a position that isn't natural to him. If he fails to impress, he will head to Gwinnett and play more outfield and other infield positions as a way to up his value. That said, the Braves, especially if they go with a five-man bench, might opt for Johnson's speed as a late-inning weapon.

The Prospects: Dustin Peterson (WOW #15) and Rio Ruiz (WOW #20)

It was the kind of season that Peterson needed. A player heavy on projection, but short on results, Peterson had not impressed much over his first three years and then 2016 happened. In his defense, he was extraordinarily young at each level, including last year in Double-A. Nevertheless, his ISO jumped from the low 100's to .149 while his walk rate, a saving grace from an ugly first season in the Braves system, held steady. The biggest difference came in a better display with his hit tool with the aid of a higher, but likely sustainable .327 BABIP. Adjustments in his swing also lead me to believe he's due for similar, if not better results as he moves up to Triple-A. Short of an injury, Peterson is not a serious candidate to make the 2017 roster, which is okay. He needs more at-bats and experience.

Ruiz by Tate Nations (CC by 4.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Like Peterson, Ruiz had a nice bounce-back campaign. However, whereas Peterson is a super longshot to make this roster, Ruiz has a chance if he's able to turn in a solid spring. Part of the trouble with Ruiz in 2015 came down to a lack of commitment to improve his body and bust his butt. He changed that in 2016 and according to a Q&A with Braves GM John Coppolella last Friday, he looks even better. It's difficult to project stardom, but there's enough here to believe Ruiz can carve out a nice career as the left-hand portion of a platoon. His defense, while not eye-opening, is good enough and he has a great arm. His hit tool is strong and he has good pop in his bat that he is still working to develop into game power.

With Adonis Garcia in the mix and seemingly well-loved by Braves management, Ruiz will not be given a spot - he'll have to show he has earned it. Even if he does, the Braves might not opt for a strict platoon and give Garcia his fair share of time against righties. What could really hurt Ruiz is the Braves willingness to go with an eight-man bullpen. There doesn't exist a lot of room for platoon players who are limited defensively in terms of flexibility. That said, his left-hand bat could come in handy late in games when he's not in the lineup.

The Longshots: Emilio Bonifacio, Ronnier Mustelier, Mel Rojas Jr., Adam Walker, Christian Walker, Colin Walsh

I actually worry that Bonifacio is less of a longshot. Bonifacio was last relevant as a major league player in 2014, when he posted a career-best 2.2 fWAR. He's only received 125 PA since, but has a -1.3 fWAR for his troubles. At nearly 32, his speed is not nearly the weapon it once was though it does remain a weapon. His other skill is his defensive flexibility, which might make him preferable for the Braves to other players who are a bit more limited. He's solid enough at second base, average at third base, and a train-wreck at shortstop. He's decent enough in the outfield corners and historically, average to slightly below-average in center field. If your bench is full of guys you believe can give you a pinch-hit option, finishing the bench off with a super-utility player like Bonifacio doesn't seem so bad. However, it's difficult to say that about this bench, when includes offensively-limited players like Suzuki and Jace Peterson.

Mustelier and Rojas Jr. return after decent years in the Braves' system last year. Mustelier slashed .291/.353/.394 in Gwinnett and has recent experience at third base. That said, ignoring the Mexican League, he hasn't played center since a cameo there in 2012. Rojas Jr. was picked up for depth from the Pirates' system and hit well in Triple-A, hammering ten homers there between Indianapolis and Gwinnett (along with two more in Double-A). Down the stretch, he was one of Gwinnett's best options. He's much more comfortable in center field than Mustelier. However, neither outfielder received an invite to spring training. That's not enough to completely rule them out, but doesn't bode well for their chances.

Adam Walker. Adam Brett Walker. Walk-Off Walker. However you know him, there are two certainties with Walker. He's going to hit the ball a long way and he's often not going to hit the ball at all. 30% of his plate appearances since being drafted 97th in 2012 have ended in a strikeout. Meanwhile, 124 - or one every 18 AB - have turned into homeruns. ZiPS even projects 29 homeruns for Walker in 2017 if he received 531 PA in the majors. Unfortunately, it also projects a 44.6% strikeout percentage. To put into that perspective...Chris Carter set the record for strikeout percentage in a season where a batter reached 500 PA. In 2013, Carter K'd 36.2% of the time - a good 8% fewer than the ZiPS projection for Walker. As a project, he's a fun one because if the Braves can get him to make more contact without sacrificing power, he becomes a viable major league option. I doubt that will happen in 2017, but he's worth a look.

Christian Walker (no relation) was just picked up by the Braves off waivers form the Orioles. He has his own contact issues, though not nearly as severe as Adam. His power isn't an 80-grade skill, either. I'm honestly not sure why the Braves were enamored with Walker outside of depth. He was a decent enough prospect in the O's system and he does have an option remaining should the Braves not be inclined to try to sneak him through waivers. Or Christian could impress this spring and land a spot as a right-handed bat off the bench who spells Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis against a tough lefty. Certainly, it's possible, but I'm not very confident.

Colin Walsh gets lost in the when we talk about a bench bat, but least we forget his ridiculous 2015 season when he slashed .302/.447/.470 in the Texas League (Double-A). Now, the Texas League isn't known for depressing offense by any means, but those numbers are eye-popping. So much so that the Brewers took him in the Rule 5 after the season. He struggled tremendously in 63 PA (four hits), though he did walk enough to post a .317 OBP. He was returned to the A's where he held his own in Triple-A. Walsh can play second, third, and the corner outfield positions and oh, he's a switch-hitter. In fact, it's hard not to think of another A's middle infielder with a switch-hit bat who the Braves once picked up - Brooks Conrad. Defensive liabilities aside, Conrad was an excellent bench bat for the Braves in 2010. Could Walsh be one for the Braves in 2017? For what it's worth, he did not receive an invite to spring training.

The Super Longshots: David Freitas, Balbino Fuenmayor, Blake Lalli, Anthony Recker

Freitas is a catcher/first baseman with a decent hit tool and already has experience in four different organizations since the Nats drafted him in 2010. He's never rated highly as a prospect and has often served as the backup catcher despite a career .273/.361/.421 slash. Freitas will turn 28 before the season and doesn't have much of a shot to make this team. Neither does Fuenmayor, though a strong spring could make things a little interesting. Fuenmayor had a mega 2015 after spending the previous year in independent ball. Playing mostly in Double-A, Fuenmayor hit .358/.384/.589 with 17 homeruns in less than 400 PA. While certainly not a prospect, it was the kind of year that will attract more attention the following year...which did not go so hot. Last season, while at Triple-A, Fuenmayor hit .291, but with him being allergic to walks and not being able to flash his good power from the Texas League, his numbers soured into a line resembling a middle infielder without any speed (.291/.325/.405). He's pretty limited to first base, though he did play 59 games at third in 2014 with Quebec. While his name deserves consideration, his bat probably doesn't.

Blake Lalli made it back to the majors last year for the first time since 2013. The 33 year-old went 2-for-13. Small sample size, but he set a new personal best with batting average (.154) and slugging (.231). That might tell you something about his first two gigs in the majors, which also were small cups of coffee (16 PA in 2012, 24 PA the following year). Lalli's bat has been substandard the last three years and he's battling to stick on the Gwinnett roster, which could be tough to do. That is especially true with Anthony Recker likely to be in Gwinnett. With the backup catching situation a problem in Atlanta last year, Recker got an opportunity and ran with it. Over 33 games, he hit .278/.394/.433. A .343 BABIP helped compared to his career .268. The Braves were not convinced that Recker was a good bet in 2017 and signed Kurt Suzuki to replace him. While Recker will be given an opportunity to unseat Suzuki, his best chance to be on a major league roster come opening day will be from injury or being traded to a team in need of catching depth.

To Sum Up...

There are a lot of options, but a few stand out: Chase d'Arnaud, Micah Johnson, and Emilio Bonifacio. Rio Ruiz might force his way in and if Atlanta goes with a more typical seven-man bullpen, that could help his chances, but regardless, Atlanta is seeking a versatile mix of players. Judging by early usage of Johnson in center field, Atlanta seems interested in using him as the primary backup to Ender Inciarte. Such a move would help Johnson's chances of making this roster. With shortstop needing depth, d'Arnaud is a good bet as well.

The biggest problem with this bench is related to what they can bring you in pinch-hitting situations. A National League bench will be counted on in late innings for high-leverage opportunities against good relievers. Peterson, d'Arnaud, and Johnson aren't prove offensive contributors at the major league level. Such a realization is likely weighing on John Coppolella as he fine-tunes the team heading into 2017. Because of this, I imagine the Braves will bring in a veteran bat like Kelly Johnson even if they do go with a four-man bench. Someone has to step in and give the Braves some kind of offense after all.

What does your bench look like? Is a four-man bench a potential problem should Atlanta go with it? Should the Braves go outside the organization for help and who should they pick up? Let me know in the comments.

Monday Roundup: First Two Games in the Book

Not too much to recap this week as we are just two games into the Grapefruit schedule, but here we go.

BRAVES 7, Blue Jays 4

The Braves fell behind 3-0 but stormed back with a half-dozen runs split between the fourth and fifth innings to win this one. A few takeaways from this game include the Braves using what is manager Brian Snitker's hopeful opening day lineup with Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson at the top. They're followed by Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp, and Nick Markakis as the heart of the order. Finally, Brandon Phillips, Adonis Garcia and Tyler Flowers fill out the regular eight. Dustin Peterson had a pair of hits and Emilio Bonifacio, trying to win a spot on the bench, went 2-for-2 with a walk and a double. Bartolo Colon worked around some trouble in the second to go 2 innings with three hits allowed, a run, and a K. John Danks struggled and Blaine Boyer wasn't spot on either, but Mauricio Cabrera, Akeel Morris, and Luke Jackson finished the day with four combined innings, a hit, a walk, and four K's. For Morris and especially Jackson, each good outing will boost their chances to make the roster.

Who helped himself the most? Bonifacio
Who hurt himself the most? Danks

Astros 3, BRAVES 2 

Jose Ramirez has a lively arm, but with so much depth, he'll need to come to camp and impress. Sunday was not his day. He surrendered four hits in 1.2 innings, including a two-run Max Stassi homer that broke a 1-1 tie in the 8th inning. Newly acquired Christian Walker singled in uber-prospect Ronald Acuna in the ninth to cut into the deficit, but Travis Demeritte flew out to end the game. Micah Johnson got the start in center field. He went 0-for-2, but Atlanta continues to look at Johnson as a possible CF backup heading into 2017. Also in the outfield on Sunday was Dustin Peterson, who played right field after replacing Nick Markakis. Since moving away from third base two years ago, Peterson has played almost exclusively in left field outside of four games last year in center field. Increasing his defensive flexibility would help him get to the majors quicker though he did get charged with an error. Julio Teheran started and looked good despite the inconsistent Lance Diaz behind the plate. Aaron Blair struggled with location over his two innings and did give up a run, but also struck out three. Blair's slider, a potential weapon for him that he developed more last year, looked good. Eric O'Flaherty and Sam Freeman each tossed scoreless innings and Adam Kolarek threw 1.1 scoreless. All three lefties are battling to make the team as non-roster guys.

Who helped himself the most? Walker
Who hurt himself the most? Ramirez

Week's Record: 1-1
Grapefruit League Record: 1-1

Seven-day Forecast: @Tigers, vs. Cardinals, @Yankees (TV: YES), @Cardinals, vs. Red Sox, SS @ Phillies (TV: CSN) and SS vs. Marlins, @ Red Sox (TV: NESN).

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Bullpen

Read previous Spring Roster Battles Previews
Fifth Starter

The bullpen was decent enough in the first half for the Atlanta Braves, but in the second half, it took off. As a team, they had a FIP of 3.48 in 264.2 innings in the second half. Luck may have played a role as their xFIP was nearly a run higher. That is a result, I believe, of less-than-stellar walk totals and an unsustainable 6% HR/FB rate. Regardless, it was an improvement and gives the Braves something to spring into next year with.

Atlanta plans on utilizing an eight-man bullpen to open 2017. I believe that is a mistake and ultimately will be a short-lived experiment that will be scrapped when the team needs an extra bat, but let's assume that the bullpen is eight pitchers deep when the season begins. We have a good idea who four of the names will be: Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, and Mauricio Cabrera. Who will be the other half? Let's see who is in the picture.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The Surprise Second-Half Contributors: Jose Ramirez and Chaz Roe

Both are out of options. Both have always interested teams because of their raw talent. Both...sometimes can't find the strike zone. And finally, both had a really nice summer for the Braves bullpen. Will either last into 2017?

Ramirez began the year in the bullpen for the Braves, but after two appearances, he was slipped off the 40-man roster and went down to Gwinnett. He found his way there and was back in the majors for July. At that point, we saw a pitcher who had lowered his arm angle, which appeared to help him get the ball down more. From the point he returned to the Braves to the end of the season, he had a 3.44 FIP to go with a 4.86 xFIP.

Meanwhile, Roe was picked off waivers in early August and joined the Braves immediately. He was superb over 20 games, striking out 33% of the batters he faced while walking just 9%. Like Ramirez, the Braves changed his arm angle slightly and upped his slider usage dramatically to the point that nearly 60% of his pitches were his slider. The results were not only a 64% groundball rate with the Braves, but a 44% outside-the-strike zone swing percentage (PITCHf/x).

Of the two, Roe is more interesting to me. A sinker/slider pitcher, he appeared to land with a perfect pitching coach in Roger McDowell, who preached sinkers as a way to induce weak grounders. Both could be kept to at least start to the season for the same reason Ramirez was kept last year (bubble player, out-of-options).

Finally Healthy? Jesse Biddle and Paco Rodriguez 

A sly pickup by John Coppolella last spring, Biddle is coming back from Tommy John surgery. How far along he is will help decide if he competes for a roster spot this spring. I'm under the impression that he'll head to the minors so the Braves can better monitor his innings, but if that curveball is back, Biddle could be in the mix.

The Braves have been waiting since the southpaw's trade from the Dodgers to add "Paco's Tacos" to the menu. Now, the former 82nd overall pick of the 2012 draft seems ready to finally pitch for the Braves after missing all of the second half of 2015 and 2016 with injuries.

If healthy, there is little question that Paco Rodriguez is a weapon. In 124 games in the majors spanning 85.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, and 2.82 SIERA. Lefties are completely clueless against Rodriguez and have managed a .220 wOBA against him while Rodriguez has sent 35% of them back to the dugout with a K. His numbers against righties aren't nearly as amazing, though he has held his own (.271 wOBA, 3.88 xFIP) to believe he has more potential than just a LOOGY.

Again, we have to preface this with "if healthy," but if he is, the Braves will have a duo of left-handed arms that other teams will envy - and be interested in trading for in Krol and Rodriguez.

The Rule 5 Twins: Armando Rivero and Daniel Winkler

Rivero had a 2.84 FIP and 37.4% strikeout percentage in Triple-A last year. In any other system, he would have received an opportunity to thrive in the majors, but the Cubs were kind of good last year so he was left in the minors. He'll have an opportunity to win a spot on this year's team and I think he has a very good chance of doing just that.

Daniel Winkler seems likely to begin 2017 on the disabled list after his horrific fractured elbow on April 11 last year. At the time, he was off to a wonderful start to his season by striking out half of the eight batters he faced. It looked like the righty with the violent delivery could help the Braves in 2016.

When - and if - he is able to help the Braves this season is a mystery. Even if he's able to, he might not get much of a look considering the depth the Braves have. To keep him, the Braves will have to put him on the 25-man roster for nearly two months once he's healthy to fulfill his Rule 5 requirements or offer him back to the Rockies, who always need pitching.

Chrisjnelson [CC BY 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Taking a Flyer: Blaine Boyer, Sam Freeman, Eric O'Flaherty, Jordan Walden

If you missed the news, Walden's contract was voided this week as we are not seeing the progression in his rehab that had been expected.

Blaine Boyer was added a month ago after failing to secure a major league contract from anyone. This was despite some pretty good traditional numbers since he made it back to the majors in 2014 (171.1 innings, 3.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). Sabermetrics are a little less impressed with a 3.73 FIP and 4.39 xFIP. The big reason is while Boyer does a good job limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard, he doesn't miss many bats (4.6 K/9, 12.4% K% over last three years). Instead, he works off weak contact and inducing enough grounders to be successful. He's the epitome of an older style of pitching where you let your defense do its job and just focus on out-thinking the other hitter. All that matters is that it works. Over the last three years, Boyer has been a 1.1 fWAR reliever, which isn't great but ranks him 99th among 163 qualified relievers. It wasn't enough to get a major league deal, but he'll have a chance to be on the roster when the season begins.

Sam Freeman was an early pickup this offseason. Freeman has been in the majors in each of the last five seasons with his best work coming in 2014 as a member of the Cardinals. That season, he carried a 3.79 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. Unlike many southpaw options, Freeman has reverse splits, which limits his appeal. He's more likely to be a third lefty out of the pen and even then, his limitations against left-handers make that unlikely.

Eric O'Flaherty was brought back on a minor-league deal after being a last-minute addition to the roster last spring. Knee and elbow injuries limited him to 39 games last year and he wasn't particularly effective either. He had surgery on his left elbow last September to help with the tension and should be good-to-go as camp opens. His pitches last year lacked that typical O'Flaherty sink. We'll see if the surgery helped to fix that this spring.

Starting Candidates Left Over: Josh Collmenter, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz

Of this trio, Collmenter seems like the good bet to be part of the final mix. He was brought back on a $2M contract rather than being non-tendered and the Braves like his experience as a swingman who throws strikes. In an eight-man bullpen, there's certainly room for the long guy.

Depth for Gwinnett's starting staff, De La Cruz will get some innings - especially early in camp - but seems destined for a reassignment at some point. Danks could be an intriguing option, though. He's had major league success and is a bit tougher on lefties. With that said, he's going to need a tremendous spring to get in the mix for a spot out of the pen.

By StatsMP76 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Prospects: Caleb Dirks, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, Lucas Sims

This is a fun group and a mini-bullpen in its own right. While Dirks flies under the radar, the results are clearly there. In 110 games and 143.1 innings, Dirks has a 1.32 ERA, a 28% strikeout rate, and a 8% walk rate (intentional passes not included). He's allowed just six homeruns as well. Dirks lacks the big stuff or high velocity of other prospects, but in a results-driven business, he's got the resume. I imagine he'll be given a chance to produce at Gwinnett first, though.

A converted starter and former first-round pick, Hursh spent most of 2016 at Mississippi, which was the third consecutive season he did that. Hursh did pitch twice in the majors and also eight times with Gwinnett. If Bobby Cox was still the manager, he might look at Hursh as the next Kevin Gryboski and utilize him in as a "rally killer" who induces double plays. Hursh has never really lived up to his billing and probably won't start in 2017.

Speaking of haven't lived up to his billing, Luke Jackson was picked up in the Tyrell Jenkins trade. He quickly climbed to Triple-A, but has not been able to gain much momentum there. In two brief trips to the majors, he has struggled to find the strike zone and keep hitters from finding the seats when he does. The appeal is still there with Jackson hitting triple digits on the gun with an inconsistent, but devastating at times curveball. If the Braves can get him to locate his pitches and find consistency with his mechanics, he could be a high-leverage arm for them as soon as this year.

In A.J. Minter, the Braves have their "best relief prospect since Craig Kimbrel." They also have a potential x-factor for their bullpen if they feel he's ready to unleash on the National League in 2017. With a 97 mph heater that has amazing movement and a unique slider that darts into lefties and away from righties, Minter has two major-league quality offerings. If he can stay healthy, he can give the Braves yet another power arm that other teams have to game plan around in late innings. He has yet to throw in back-to-back games, but if he can cross that hurdle, the sky is the limit for his 2017 campaign.

Akeel Morris has been quietly effective for a few years now and while he doesn't have the ceiling of a Minter, he still has potential to work himself into high-leverage situations with his three-pitch mix of a mid 90's heater, solid changeup, and a slider that could make-or-break his career depending on how well he develops it. His delivery appears to come out of whack from time-to-time and I really worry about his long-term health considering how much his arm drags behind him before the ball is released. I believe his likely destination will be Gwinnett, but being already on the 40-man only helps his chances.

Finally, there is Lucas Sims. I am only including him on the chance the Braves get enamored with his potential as a reliever this spring. My belief is that he heads to Gwinnett and battles to climb the starting pitching depth chart, but many feel he is destined for a relief role at some point. Will that be 2017? It's possible.

To Sum Up...

I just gave you 18 options for four spots. Some of them are better bets than others, of course. It's hard to really nail down just what the Braves will do with the bullpen, though my bet is conservative to start the season. I think the six prospects I named are all destined for Gwinnett - though one or two could be pushed to Mississippi because of numbers. That brings us down to a dozen options. Winkler is likely to begin the year on the DL while Biddle probably needs to be brought back slowly. Now, we have ten options and I believe you can further lower that by removing De La Cruz and Danks from the discussion.

Four spots, eight names. My bet is that the Braves go with Collmenter and the two out-of-options guys in Ramirez and Roe. In that scenario, the final spot will be a three-way battle between Boyer, Freeman, and O'Flaherty - one likely to be won by Boyer. That would give us a bullpen of Johnson, Vizcaino, Krol, Cabrera, Ramirez, Roe, Boyer, and Collmenter to start the year.

If you don't like that bullpen, don't despair. The chances of the bullpen lasting even a month without injury or poor play forcing a move is minimal. At that point, we might see guys like Dirks, Jackson, Minter, and Morris start to work their way onto the team in a potentially permanent way. We could also see the Braves scrap the eight-man idea for a more conventional seven-man bullpen - which I definitely would prefer.

What does your bullpen look like? Think the Braves will go younger or do you agree that they will be more conservative to start the year? Let me know in the comments.

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Fifth Starter

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Football's done (sorry Falcons fans) and that means one glorious thing - baseball is just around the corner. In fact, in a few days, the Atlanta Braves will open spring training as pitchers and catchers report followed by the rest of the team. With all the negative in the world, spring training is a beautiful thing as it's impossible to not be a little optimistic. For Braves' fans, even as terrible as the last few years have been, it's an exciting time as this squad looks improved and a potential sleeper for a playoff slot.

If they get there, it will start with the rotation. Last season, only the Reds had a worse fWAR (4.7 to 3.1) from their starters. Unsurprisingly, the Braves rotation finished in the bottom 5 in FIP and xFIP and sixth worse in SIERA. The Braves were especially horrid in the second half. Over 72 starts, the rotation managed 0.3 fWAR. Ouch.

But 2017 promises to be different. The Braves added a trio of veterans to plug into the rotation as their younger arms continue to mature and they will join rotation leader Julio Teheran. To be fair, it's unlikely the Braves will compete with the Nationals and Mets as far as top rotations in the East, but it should be good enough to be closer to the league average, especially as 2017 opens. Presumably, a young gun or two will get a chance to push a veteran out of the mix from there.

Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey, and Teheran make up four. Who will join them? Let's take a look at the contenders.

The Presumptive Choice - Mike Foltynewicz

Folty's step forward in 2016 appeared to make him safe from needing to reclaim his rotation spot, but the additions of the three veterans - plus further flirting with Chris Archer and the like - meant that the Braves were not convinced that the hard-throwing righty had done enough to deserve an easy path onto 2017's roster. To be fair, Foltynewicz clearly has a foot in the door here. His work down the stretch makes that clear. After a 5.09 FIP during the first half, he finished the second half with a 3.68 FIP. That's promising though his xFIP shows a much smaller 18 point difference.

Looking at some of the changes in the second half versus the first half, one thing that stands out is more confidence in his changeup. It has given him a better weapon against lefties as a strikeout pitch. He doesn't use it much against righties, but it could be a weapon as he refines it. All in all, Foltynewicz certainly took a step forward and will be given an opportunity to do the same in 2017.

The Replaced - Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler

With the three veteran additions to the rotation, Blair and Wisler were put on notice - produce or enjoy Gwinnett. For Blair, it was much-needed after a poor first run in the majors. He struggled with Mike Minor Disease, a condition that forces pitchers to nibble around the strike zone to the point that they fall behind and are forced to throw strikes in hitter's counts. For example, Blair threw a first-pitch strike 4% fewer than the average pitcher and was in the zone 5% less. Subsequently, hitters swung more at pitches in the zone and made more contact because they were able to narrow their batting eye rather than be defensive in pitcher's counts. Blair has the potential to be an effective major league pitcher, but only after he trusts his stuff.

Matt Wisler was easily Atlanta's most disappointing pitcher last year. After a strong five-game run with the big league club over the final few weeks in 2015 (34.2 ING, 9 BB, 24 K, 2.34 ERA), Wisler was tabbed to slot into Shelby Miller's #2 spot. That mistake explains why the Braves were so anxious to bring in some more established pitchers for 2017. Wisler's numbers over the first couple of months looked great from a basic ERA standpoint, though a deeper look shows some questionable trends (.232 BABIP, xFIP near 5.00). In the second half, those trends pushed his ERA as high as 5.16.

Wisler is similar to Blair in many ways. Neither pitcher will rack up the strikeouts and instead, both will depend more on getting ahead and fooling the hitter into making soft contact. Wisler has struggled to do that. Despite solid walk numbers, he's thrown a first-pitch strike 58.8% of the time, about 2% below average. With his stuff and control, he needs to be above average with his location to be effective because we know hitters are going to make contact.

The Veteran - Josh Collmenter

At this point, we have a good idea who Collmenter is. He won't strike out many batters, won't walk many batters, and will surrender a fair number of gopher balls. His control was actually iffy last year before a 19-inning run with the Braves seemed to help. Surprisingly, he was brought back for 2017, though his chances to rejoin the rotation are minimal. Still, Collmenter has a good chance to break camp as the long guy out of the pen and be in line for some emergency starts as needed.

The "He's Still Around?" Minor Leaguers - Joel De La Cruz, John Danks, and Kris Medlen

This trio received minor league deals since the end of the season. De La Cruz is a Gordon Blackley special - a guy with Yankee minor league ties who the Braves later brought aboard. They haven't had much success with these longshots and De La Cruz wasn't anything special last year (5.19/5.03/5.09 FIP/xFIP/SIERA). That said, the Braves are comfortable with him and he gives them more starting pitching depth to stash at Gwinnett in case they need an emergency start and don't want to press a kid into the role.

As a lefty, Danks is likely around to compete for a bullpen slot, but with Teheran and Colon in the World Baseball Classic, there are innings to fill and a guy like Danks will have an opportunity. He hasn't been good since 2011 and was cut four starts into 2016 by the White Sox. As I wrote about Danks before, "consider that the Braves turned Bud Norris, Jhoulys Chacin, and Lucas Harrell into future assets last year." Does that mean they will do the same with Danks? Probably not.

I mentioned Medlen, but he won't be able to contribute until summer - if at all - and might only be a relief option. However, I wanted to mention Medlen in case you hadn't heard about it.

The Top Prospects - Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims

Both of these top pitching prospects will be in camp. Both have put up big strikeout numbers. Both have garnered Top 100 prospect status in the past. Both struggle to fire consistent strikes.

Newcomb is the higher ceiling guy here. Some have soured heavily on him while others, like me, believe there was enough progress in the second half of last season to justify the high praise. In fact, with only five prospects remaining to be revealed as part of my Top 50 Prospects, Newcomb is one of the special handful still in the running for the top spot. I mean, you can probably guess who's #1 and you might be right, but Newcomb's still alive here.

For Newcomb, his season's lowest point came on July 8th when he threw 45 pitches and couldn't get out of the first inning. Despite his epic failure of an outing, he only allowed one hit. Yikes. In the ten starts to follow, he K'd 34% of the batters he faced while keeping his walk rate at an acceptable 11%. Despite an ERA a good run-and-a-half higher than 2015, his FIP was roughly the same.

Newcomb is a longshot to push Foltynewicz. For him, it's more about impressing the coaches enough to move up the depth chart when - not if - but when a spot opens up. While the Braves have a lot potential ace-quality pitchers below Double-A, Newcomb has more upside than any Braves pitcher vying for a spot on this year's roster. He'll have to show he can dominate again like he did down the stretch, but if he does, he'll be in the bigs this summer.

As for Sims, he came in at #18 on my Top 50. He was in a similar place last year as Newcomb is this year. After a so-so first half in 2015, Sims finished the season on a hot streak with Mississippi that had fans and coaches alike hoping that the light had turned on for the talented righty. After a brief cameo in a return trip to Mississippi to start 2016, Sims headed to Gwinnett in late April and his first two starts went well (12 ING, 3 R, 16 K). The wheels came off from there as his ERA hovered over 9.00 over the next nine games. By mid-June, he was demoted back to Mississippi and finished with nearly a K-an-inning and a 2.83 ERA over his final 14 starts.

Sims' walk rate has steadily gotten worse over the last two years as hitters at the advanced levels are better equipped to handle his heater and force him to throw quality breaking balls. He's still going to get his strikeouts, but without consistent secondary offerings, he can't show the batter something new the second-and-third time through the order. That alone might make him destined for the bullpen.

The Braves will try to give Sims time to change course and improve his chances to remain a starter, but with plenty of reinforcements coming in "waves," the time to get back on track is now for the young righthander. If it doesn't click by midseason, a potentially permanent move to the bullpen might be in the cards.

The Sleeper - Patrick Weigel

With just one full season under his belt, this 2015 7th rounder is an ultra longshot, but he did receive a non-roster invitation for a reason. By the end of last season, Weigel was pitching in the playoffs for Mississippi, which tells us a lot about both his maturity level and his performance considering his relatively brief professional career.

Weigel was a closer in college, which limited expectations for him once he was drafted. Now, though, after the season he had last year (over a K-an-inning, 2.47 ERA), the expectations are sky high for Weigel. A return to Mississippi to start 2017 is likely for the righty considering the depth at Gwinnett, but don't be shocked to see Weigel receive a lot of press this spring.

To Sum Up...

One spot, ten pitchers. Oh, and likely, it's more like zero spots because Foltynewicz would probably have to experience a miserable spring to get bumped from his spot. Short of injury, this article looks like a lot of words written to come to a simple conclusion - it's Folty's to lose.

But as I mentioned throughout, for the younger pitchers on this list, this might not be a battle to open the season as the fifth starter, but to claim the sixth starter spot. Another word for that is "next guy in." Consider this: Colon and Dickey are in their 40's and the body likes to break down frequently at that age while Garcia has rarely been healthy the last five or so years. The Braves may balk at bringing up a kid for a spot start when they can rely on a veteran like Collmenter or Quad-A depth like De La Cruz, but the chances that each starter makes 30 starts in 2017 is astronomical. There will be a need for a guy for at least a few weeks to step in. Who that is will depend some on whose schedule lines up the best to replace the downed pitcher, but it will also rely heavily on the depth chart. Who's Gwinnett's #1? That guy has the best shot to get a promotion when the need arrives.

The Braves used 16 different starters last year, including Casey Kelly, Roberto Hernandez, and Ryan Weber. The year before, they called on ten different starters and used Trevor Cahill and Eric Stults. That's the difference between those years and this season. The additions of three veterans and continued development of pitching prospects has given the Braves a chance to plug-and-play a number of interesting arms.

Who's your pick for fifth starter? Is it Foltynewicz short of an epic spring collapse? Did I leave a pitcher out of the discussion? Let me know below.