Your Super Early 2017-2018 Free Agency Preview

Let's face it - this winter's free agent class is horrendous. Two of the biggest deals signed so far have went to closers and only one starter has received a contract of over two years in length. The Braves have dipped their toes into the free agency market, but only on short-term veterans that, while they improve the team, are not long-term difference makers.

Could that change next winter? Well, the available players increases dramatically in quality, that's for sure. Let's take a look at the market.

By Thomson20192 [CC BY-SA 2.0] via Flickr

Catcher - Jonathan Lucroy will turn 32 a little more than two months into his next contract. Could that contract be a pact with the Braves? If you weren't aware, Lucroy has quietly become the best catcher in baseball not named Buster Posey. Much of the lack of hype was due to playing for Milwaukee, but now, he's got a chance to play a year for a contending Rangers club before hitting free agency where he'll look for one more big deal. Atlanta has been linked to him in trade rumors before and certainly would be intrigued by the idea of acquiring him next offseason - especially since the punishment for signing a player that receives a qualifying offer is much less severe. However, will the Braves be a little turned off by his age? I imagine if he has a healthy 2016 and doesn't extend his contract with the Rangers, the Braves will be one of his top suitors next winter.

Third Base - Royals third sacker Mike Moustakas had an injury derail him in almost the worst season - having it happen this year would be worse because he hits free agency next winter. Nevertheless, "Moose" enters his final year of arbitration with a chance to earn a big deal even if it's not from the Royals. After a mostly underwhelming four-year run after his callup in 2011, Moustakas slashed .284/.348/.470 in 2015 with 22 HR, a .353 wOBA, and a 122 wRC+. His defense has never graded below average and provided he rebounds from a torn ACL last year, he could solidify third base for the Braves. Granted, many will argue that it won't be needed with Travis Demeritte, Rio Ruiz, and Austin Riley maturing in the minors. Oh, and there's that Kevin Maitan guy. All of that is true, but if Moose is healthy, he's a first-division player at his position rather than a prospect who possesses the skills and potential to become one.

By Terry Foote [CC BY-SA 4.0] via Wikipedia Commons

Outfield - While the Braves would have to make a move to open up a spot, there are some good outfielders on the market next year that might prompt Atlanta to be active. J.D. Martinez has proven over the last three seasons that he's a force at the plate. Defensively, he looked horrid last year according to the metrics, which helped to explain how he went from 9 fWAR the previous two years to just 1.8. That low defensive component might be soft and he could flip it. He doesn't turn 30 until August and posted a .384 wOBA last year. Lorenzo Cain needs a bounceback season, but has been worth 16.3 fWAR over the last four seasons. A center fielder by trade, he would either move to a corner slot or prompt an Ender Inciarte trade. Shockingly, Carlos Gonzalez will only be 32 when his next contract begins. While there are questions regarding his away numbers the last few years - plus a number of injuries - CarGo can be an impact addition to someone's lineup. Might it be Atlanta's?

The Rotation - This year's market was saturated with rotation depth like Jason Hammel and Rich Hill, but not much else. That helped to produce interest in trading for Chris Sale and others. Next year's market won't have the same problem. Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish will garner a lot of attention around the league. Danny Duffy finally settled into a starter role last year and will be under 30 when his next contract begins. Potential bounceback options like Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb could be line for a big payday if they have a solid 2017. The market could also increase if a quartet of pitchers with opt-outs in Wei-Yin Chen, Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, and Masahiro Tanaka test the market. With the new CBA's more forgiving rules regarding signing pitchers who receive a qualifying offer, starting pitchers are poised to receive a number of mega deals next offseason. Could the Braves be one of the teams dishing out a contract?

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0] via Flickr

The Bullpen - Going big in next year's reliever market would go against the recent philosophy of the Braves to build the bullpen with a wealth of cheap power arms. Next year's market isn't great, either. Tyler Clippard has a 4.24 FIP and a 3.22 ERA the last two seasons with 18 homeruns allowed. Something has to break there for the soon-to-be 32 year-old. Steve Cishek flamed out with the Marlins, but had a good year with the Mariners last season. Another solid season will have the 30 year-old ready to cash in on a nice contract. Bryan Shaw was part of the trio of arms the Indians used early-and-often in the playoffs to make up for a questionable starting rotation. That said, his last two seasons were weaker than the two seasons before in FIP, HR/9, and K/BB. Pedro Strop has quietly been a very solid reliever for the Cubs over the last 3+ seasons (2.68 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 11 K/9, 3.2 K/BB). As for lefties, Jake McGee was a superb reliever for the Rays, but last January's trade to the Rockies hurt him considerably. Could be worth a flyer even if he has a bad season as a one-year, shoot-for-the-stars candidate. Tony Watson was homer-prone last year for the first time in his career and his 2014 dominance was short-lived. Still, lefties have a career .266 OBP against him. On the higher end side, Wade Davis might be shut out of a big deal that other closers got this offseason because so few teams will be hunting.

Did I miss a free agent? Well, there's Shohei Otani, but paying for him is going to require robbing Fort Knox and while I'm not saying that's a deal breaker, I'm also saying there's probably about a 55-60% chance of that not happening. Who else would make a good fit? Peruse this link from MLB Trade Rumors and let me know.

Sticking to the Plan: Braves Add R.A. Dickey

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original) [CC By 2.0], via Flickr

In a case of an early free agency rumor becoming true, the Atlanta Braves have signed pitcher R.A. Dickey to a contract for 2017. According to Jon Heyman, he'll receive at least $8M (total includes $500K buyout) with a chance to earn an additional $7.5 million if his option for 2018 is exercised.

Let's take a look at what the Braves got.

Profiling Dickey

I don't know if you are aware of this, but Dickey throws the knuckleball. In fact, he throws it about 88% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. Along with Steven Wright and Eddie Gamboa, he's one of three knucklers to pitch in the majors since the retirement of Tim Wakefield in 2011. All three had been in the AL East, but that is no longer the case now.

Before Dickey, nobody threw the knuckleball with such velocity. That said, Dickey has "lost" about three ticks in velocity over the last two years from an average of 75.3 mph in 2014 to 72.2mph this year. However, those averages are pretty much useless because Dickey throws two knuckleballs that are only charted as one. The fast one is the one that shocks hitters and observers as, on a good day, it can reach 80 mph. The slower one is comparable to the Bugs Bunny cartoon where a hitter can swing three times on one pitch. Okay, maybe not that slow, but the two knucklers have about, on average, a 5-to-10 mph difference.

Dickey throws three other pitches, but last year seemed to relegate himself to a two-pitch pitcher. His sinker, which averaged 83 mph, was utilized 9.2% of the time. That represents an increase of double the usage from 2015. He rarely went to his fourseamer, which he adopted in 2012, nor his changeup - though that's nothing new. Now, here's the thing. Being a two-pitch pitcher is more in line with his Mets' days. Back then, he actually used his sinker much more (around a quarter of the time). Once he went to Toronto, his knuckleball usage went through the roof.

That's one thing the Braves may attempt to change once he arrives in camp in February. Dickey will also enjoy a move away from the homer-happy stadiums of the AL East where three of the five home parks in the division are extreme hitter paradises. That's especially true of his former home in Toronto. Since joining the Jays, Dickey had a HR/9 of 1.45 at home versus 1.02 on the road. While it's unknown how SunTrust Park will play, of the dozen current stadium in baseball that parkfactors.com gives a rating of 105+ - which classifies it as a hitter's park - only one is the NL East. In an unbalanced schedule, that should aid with Dickey's homerun numbers. He surrendered between 25 and 35 homeruns as a Blue Jay and between 1.05 and 1.49 HR/9. That mark should fall with his return to the NL.

That would also help his FIP/xFIP numbers. During his Blue Jays days, his best performance in those metrics was 4.32/4.14 in 2014. They looked noticeably worse over the last two years as his strikeouts fell. On the subject of K's, it's important to point out that he rebounded there last year (3% climb) and percentage-wise, he's just about 1.5% below where he was in 2014. Of bigger concern was that Dickey's walk numbers climbed sharply as a Blue Jay to a seven-year high of 8.7% last year. Perhaps less knucklers will help with that.

It's also important to not get too attached to the home/road splits. I gave you the homerun difference earlier, but from a FIP/xFIP standpoint, it's less stark. At home with the Blue Jays, Dickey had a combo split of 4.78/4.30. On the road, it was 4.36/4.59. While the FIP does keep the big change, the xFIP doesn't. That's because xFIP normalizes the homeruns surrendered. I'm pointing out this because if you think a return to the NL is just going to fix Dickey right up, you might be very disappointed. It's not to say Dickey won't be improved by a switch of leagues, but he's also not the guy who the Mets traded after 2012 anymore either.

How Dickey Fits

Dickey does do one thing the Braves are searching for. He takes the mound every fifth day. Until last year when he finished 31.1 innings short, the right-hander had pitched at least 208.2 innings every year since 2011. He would have at least gotten closer to 200 innings in 2016, but the Jays removed him from the rotation for the September stretch run. Since the Braves have had two pitchers reach 170 innings the last two seasons, an addition like Dickey will bring some calm to the staff and help them to avoid using AAAA depth guys like Lucas Harrell and Ryan Weber so frequently.

The knuckleballer also buys the Braves some time. Sean Newcomb is coming. So is Max Fried. As is Max Povse, Lucas Sims, and others. Matt Wisler, Tyrell Jenkins, John Gant, Robert Whalen, and more are already here. But the Braves don't want to just hand them spots. They want them to earn their spot like Mike Foltynewicz has. In the mean time, a veteran like Dickey gives them an option and let's not ignore that Dickey, for all his faults, gave the Jays over 800 innings and 6.4 fWAR the last four seasons. Only one pitcher has done either for the Braves. To be fair, Julio Teheran was 4.2 innings short of doing both.

It is unlikely Dickey will be the last starter the Braves add this winter. From the start, the idea was a guy like Dickey who will provide a short-term boost and help the Braves be better in 2017 while the young guns mature. Meanwhile, the Braves will seek another starter to stick around beyond 2017. Recently, I profiled Jason Hammel as a possibility. Regardless of what happens, the Braves do not want to run out of options like they did in 2016. Adding a guy like Dickey will help with that.

It's not a sexy signing. You'll probably have to remind yourself the Braves added Dickey by the time pitchers and catchers report. But it's a good signing that helps the Braves do what they have stated is their goal for 2017 - to be better.

Is Jason Hammel a Fit for the Braves?

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(Crop) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

As news broke Sunday afternoon that Cubs righty Jason Hammel's option was not going to be picked up by the team, speculation immediately began as to whether or not Hammel will be a Braves target. With that in mind, let's take a deeper look into the veteran hurler.

Who Hammel Is/Isn't 

Hammel is a modern day innings eater. 200+ inning guys are few and far between in the today's age of power bullpens so our expectations are closer to the 170-inning range. Since establishing himself as a major league starter in 2009, Hammel has reached that plateau five times.

It probably tells you a lot about Hammel when the first thing that stands out is durability, but that's what you get out of Hammel. Let's be honest - after using the likes of Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona edition), Lucas Harrell, and Joel De La Cruz last year, is durability such a bad thing? Hammel won't give you a lot of high-end performance, but he also won't embarrass you. Maybe a comparison from modern Braves' history is another former Rockies starter, John Thomson. While Thomson would be limited by injuries during his three-year stay in Atlanta, he came to the Braves as a solid, though largely unremarkable, right-hander.

Hammel works off five pitches, though his changeup is rarely employed. He throws a few more fourseamers to righties and a few more curves to lefties. Overall, he utilizes his fourseamer about 30% of the time and that mark is much higher toward the beginning of the game. Once he's able to spot his heater, he can go to his breaking stuff. His slider has been his most-often used pitch over the last two years (35%) while his sinker is his third most frequent call. He upped his curveball usage last year to about 10%, but it remains a distant fourth offering. The four-seamer and sinker have lost a tick of velocity over the last couple of seasons, but still average close to 93 mph. His slider and change both come in at about 85 mph while his curveball comes at the hitter at about 77 mph as it drops sharply upon arriving.

Hammel has carried a strikeout percentage above his career-average of 18.5% in four-of-the-last-five years and his walk rate in 2016 was around his career norm. Some deeper metrics gave him higher marks last year than he carried the previous two seasons because of some luck stats going in his favor. His BABIP was 32 points below his career norm while his LOB% was about 5% higher than usual. Subsequently, his FIP of 4.48 and xFIP of 4.34 were both three-year highs by a longshot. There's little reason beyond age to not expect some more positive fluctuations in his metrics next year and there weren't any telling negatives in his plate discipline stats like Zone% and Contact% to be concerned about.

It's worth mentioning that Hammel finished poorly in 2016 with a 8.35 ERA over his final seven starts. This contributed to him being left off the Cubs' postseason roster. It's also worth noting that 2016 was the third consecutive season where Hammel's performance dipped in the second half according to ERA. Over the last three years, Hammel has a 3.63 FIP and 3.61 xFIP in the first half compared to a 4.65 FIP and 4.07 FIP in the second half. It less pronounced in 2016, though. In fact, if you strip away ERA from the conversation, there was no real difference between the halves in performance. His ERA climbing seems a product of BABIP and LOB% regressing to the mean more so than anything.

With Hammel, I don't believe the floor is much lower than what we saw last year from him. The ceiling may not be much higher, but he did pitch better recently (2014-15). He's going to get decent numbers across the board and will be saddled with his fair share of homers. Because he won't hurt himself with walks, a lot of those homers will be solo shots and he'll work around them. Like I said, he's no great shakes, but he is still a quality option who has been durable enough to stay on the mound every fifth day.

How Much?

Let's take a look at last year's free agent class for an idea of what kind of salary and commitment the Braves would have to consider. Hammel enters this winter with 5.5 fWAR over the last three years. While I do realize there is a lot more to take into account than just that one statistic, it may give us a baseline to help with our projection. The following four contracts went to starting pitchers with a similar fWAR entering the winter of 2015.

Yovani Gallardo, 6.5 fWAR...2 years, $22M, $11M AAV
Mike Leake, 6.0 fWAR...5 years, $80M, $16M AAV
J.A. Happ, 5.4 fWAR...3 years, $36M, $12M AAV
Ian Kennedy, 4.9 fWAR...5 years, $70M, $14M AAV

Amazing that we have gotten to the point where middle-rotation depth costs this much, but here we are. Somewhere between $11M and $16M per year seems like a good range for where to start and end with Hammel negotiations. I'm tempted to eliminate Leake from this comparison, but felt the context might help. As far as years go, 2017 will be Hammel's Age-34 year. That is comparable to Happ, the oldest of the previous list. Yout might think Hammel's declining numbers in 2016 would work against him, but that may not neccesarily be accurate. Kennedy had a similar thing happen to him, but the Royals still paid him handsomely and Kennedy's durability was a key factor for Kansas City.

The Braves cannot get tunnel vision with Hammel. While arguibly the best starter on the free agent market, is Hammel that much better than Edinson Volquez ? Jeremy Hellickson? Andrew Cashner? Not enough to warrant big-time cash for a small time player. While Hammel is a great fit for the Braves, the qualities that make him a great fit for Atlanta also make him a great fit for other teams.

If it were me, my offer would be something like an average of $12 million for two seasons plus a third year option and incentives. That leaves a little wiggle room to increase the base salary some in negoiations and maybe promise a third year, but $39M total over three years is roughly my ceiling. Beyond that and you are really getting into paying too much for too little return.

What say you? Is Hammel worth the investment? Comment below.

See Also

2016 Player Reviews: Joel De La Cruz, Tyler Flowers, Mike Foltynewicz
Braves Can McDowell
Random Ex-Brave: John Thomson