-->
Showing posts with label OFlaherty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OFlaherty. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Braves Lose Player to the Air Force

After a big week of promotions to report the last time I did this, the last seven days were more about the weird (lots of player movement for procedural purposes) and the unusual (a player going on military leave) than well-earned promotions - though there were a couple.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 18 to July 24. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
We've already given the full-court press on yesterday's trade. Stephen gave a general recap of the deal and what it means for the Braves while I focused on the prospect acquired in the deal, Huascar Ynoa, with a scouting report.
By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Activated: Arodys Vizcaino...A right index finger strain didn't keep Vizcaino out of action for long. It's been a weird season for the hard-throwing righthander. A year after turning into a groundball pitcher, he's reverted back to his 2015-self with a groundball rate just south of 40%. He's also allowed five home-runs - nearly half of his career total. That's played a big part in an FIP of 3.89. And no, this isn't a SunTrust Park thing - only one of those homers occurred in Georgia. He got off to a slow start but was dominant from April 27 to July 1. His numbers started to fall again before his trip to the DL. The Braves are hoping he gets going again as it both helps his trade value and gives Brian Snitker more options should the Braves trade Jim Johnson or at least demote him from his current position.

Placed on Bereavement List and Activated: Kurt Suzuki...A day after hitting a big two-run homer in Atlanta's 6-3 win over the Dodgers last Thursday, Suzuki headed to Hawaii for his grandfather's funeral. He was activated Monday. It's been a great season for Suzuki, who recently reached 1 fWAR for just the second time in the last six years. He could garner some trade attention moving forward, but with Anthony Recker dealt yesterday, Atlanta will likely hold onto their backup catcher short of an offer John Coppolella can't say no to.

Promoted: Matt Wisler...Like his other call-ups this year, Wisler's return to the majors will be short. Aaron Blair has been given Jaime Garcia's spot in the rotation. Instead, Wisler is back in the bigs to help out the bullpen. He got that shot in Monday's game and got hammered. At this point, we know what Wisler the Starter looks like and it's not good. We also have seen glimpses into what Wisler the Long Reliever looks like and that's not too attractive of an option either. What about Wisler the One-Inning Reliever? It seems like that's the only stone left unturned here. Consider this: Wisler has mid-90's heat and can touch 97 mph on the gun as a starter. He might be able to consistently hit 97 as a reliever or at least be able to push his velocity that high more often. We also know that throughout his career, he has a slider that is capable of generating whiffs. In fact, it's the only pitch he's been able to get swings-and-misses on. Now, if you were able to take his control, increased velocity, and plus-slider and turn it into a reliever, you might have the makings of a solid option out of the bullpen. At any rate, it's time to try something new with Wisler.

Released: Eric O'Flaherty...Atlanta kept hoping they could get something out of the former star reliever, but ultimately, O'Flaherty just couldn't find his groove anymore. Since returning to Atlanta last year, O'Flaherty had a 4.91 FIP over 47 innings while allowing seven home-runs. During his best three years in Atlanta during his first run as a Brave (2010-12), O'Flaherty gave up seven homers in 175 innings with a 2.98 FIP. O'Flaherty had been on the DL with left rotator cuff tendinitis and there was no word on any time table ahead of him being released. Atlanta could have opted to send him to the 60-day DL to get a roster spot, but instead, ran out the clock on something else. O'Flaherty reached ten years of major league service by the Braves waiting as long as they did to release him. That ensures a full pension from Major League Baseball. A solid move by the Braves as they reward one of their most well-liked pitchers of the last decade.

Gwinnett
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated and Promoted from Mississippi: Joseph Odom...After spending most of the first three months of the season on the DL, Odom appeared in four games with Mississippi before landing back on the DL. Once activated, he was promoted to replace Recker. His first few games in Gwinnett haven't been great, but Odom will likely be the guy moving forward for the G-Braves behind the plate as the only other catcher on the roster, David Freitas, is a 28-year-old journeyman hitting .265/.346/.354. Odom has been lost in this new era of a number of interesting catching prospects in the Braves' system, but he did rake last year with Carolina, hitting .292/.349/.500 with 8 HR before a promotion to Mississippi. To be sure, he struggled after arriving in Double-A. Odom is solid backstop behind the plate, though not elite. At the plate, he's progressed each year in OPS from .567 to .654 to .688 to .758. While it's difficult to predict big things, Odom has enough skills that might play well as a backup. For the moment, he might be third on the depth chart at catcher so keep him in mind.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Lane Adams...In his most extended shot at sticking in the majors, Adams has done some things well. He's been an option off the bench with five successful steals, has belted a pinch-hit homer and another pinch-hit double and can play all three outfield slots. The negative is that he's only on-based .267 over 30 PA. To be fair, he's received zero starts so nearly all of his action has come in late inning situations. The returns of Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez, along with Atlanta's insistence to stick with an eight-man bullpen cost Adams his job. Chances are he'll be back again in the majors at some point this season. He's slashed .269/.320/.473 in the minors this year with 18 EBH, including 7 homers, and 15 steals.

Promoted from Mississippi: Enrique Burgos...In a brief return to Double-A, Burgos never appeared as he waited for a spot to open back up in Gwinnett. Burgos has been wonderful since his trade from the Diamondbacks' organization with a 1.15 ERA over 15.2 ING. He has K'd 18 and walked eight as well. Burgos may not be a top relief prospect, but he's done a good job opening some eyes in Gwinnett and might get a chance in the majors with the Braves looking to tinker with their pen to get better results.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Xavier Avery...This is the first of many weird moves that occurred last week in which several players were shuffled down to Florida and back up. A few guys came up from Florida and were quickly shifted out again. It must have been a logistical thing. I just wanted to point this out because you'll see some funny transactions here. In pretty much every one of these moves, the player never appeared during his brief time demoted/promoted. In regards to Avery, he's been a productive player for the Gwinnett Braves this season. He strikes out way too often (104 in 292 PA), but he's also got on base at a big-time clip (.371) and showed good pop (.213 ISO). He's also added 15 steals and if it wasn't for Adams, he'd likely be next-in-line in case a bench spot for an outfielder opened up.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Caleb Dirks...For the first time in his career, Dirks is struggling. Over his last six appearances (sandwiched around a trip to the DL), Dirks has given up eight earned runs and three homers over 8.2 ING. He's K'd 8 in that time frame. Dirks has been remarkably consistent and awesome during most of his four-year career since the Braves took him in the 15th round back in 2014. It'll be interesting to see how he answers adversity for a change.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Evan Phillips...Evan Phillips was a bit of a surprising promotion at the end of May because he was carrying an 8.14 ERA at Mississippi. That was a product of a bad handful of games to open the year. In his final ten games, he had a 2.81 ERA with 18 Ks in 16 ING. Since joining Gwinnett, he's continued to pitch fairly well, though he needs to clean up the walks (12 in 18 ING). Still, he's getting a strikeout an inning and has a 3.00 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A ball. You'll take that anytime. A 17th-round selection back in 2015, Phillips won't turn 23 until this September.

DL: Mauricio Cabrera...The Atlanta Braves' bullpen struggles may have started this year with the inability to get Cabrera going. He was expected to take a prime role in the pen after 38.1 ING in the majors last year with six saves and a 2.82 ERA. Instead, he has been abysmal in Triple-A with nearly a walk-an-inning. His last six outings were especially bad as he walked ten in 5.2 innings. Cabrera had control issues in the minors before but seemed to find it a bit after getting to the majors. It's just flat-out gone now.

DL: Kyle Kubitza...It hasn't been the best season for Mr. Kubitza with a .232/.321/.324 line over 66 games. To be fair, the former prospect has turned it on since June 1, slashing .284/.375/.402. That kind of slash is why many Braves fans thought Kubitza might be a possible piece that could help the Braves' team in 2015 before he was traded to the Angels in the Ricardo Sanchez trade. No word on what sent Kubitza to the DL, but at this point, he's filler at the infield and outfield corner positions.

Mississippi
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Promoted from Florida: Corbin Clouse...I didn't put Clouse in my Top 50 Midseason list, but he was very close. He keeps this up, he'll definitely be in it when we reconvene for an offseason list. Clouse has some ugly walk numbers this season in Florida, but something started to click for him over his final nine games. In 13.1 innings, he walked three and struck out 19 while not allowing a run. In the 21.2 innings before that, he walked 18 and struck out 27 with an ERA of 3.82. The change for Clouse warranted a promotion to Mississippi and he's already tossed four scoreless innings there. When you add last year's success between Danville and Rome, Clouse has a 1.69 ERA over his first 69.1 ING...which I hear is nice. He's also struck out 103 of 287 batters, a rate of 36%. Not too shabby for a 27th rounder out of Davenport University.

Promoted to Gwinnett from Florida and Demoted to Mississippi: Junior Rincon...Since joining the organization earlier this month, Rincon has spent most of his time in Florida but now returns to Mississippi where he threw one game out of the pen a few weeks ago. He also got a few days in Gwinnett but didn't pitch. It would have been his Triple-A debut if he had.

Florida
Promoted to Gwinnett and Demoted Back: Andres Santiago...Santiago gets around. He's played for four minor league teams this year and all of them are in the Braves' system. Most of the season has been spent in Rome where he's thrown 33.2 of his 53.2 innings. At 27, Santiago is an eleven-year veteran who is just trying to keep a dream alive.

Rome
Promoted from GCL: Troy Conyers...A 23rd-round southpaw out of the University of San Diego, Conyers is a big guy at 6'5" and 230 lbs. Slowed in college by Tommy John surgery in 2014, Conyers was switched from starter-to-closer in 2017 and it came together for him in a big way (12.5 K/9, 2.5 BB.9, 1 HR allowed in 46.2 ING). At 23, it was a surprise to see him in the GCL until you remember that the Braves drafted 20,000 left-handers in June and they couldn't all be in Danville. Over eight games in the GCL, Conyers was absolutely dominant. In 14 innings, he struck out 19, walked two, and the only run to score off him was unearned. He needs a challenge and it might as well come in Rome.

Danville
Nothing doing.

GCL
Demoted from Danville: Jeremy Fernandez...Fernandez wasn't getting a lot of playing time in Danville and what playing time he did get resulted in a .174/.240/.196 line over 50 PA. This is the third season of his career and the 20-year-old has yet to show much offensive capability. He's played mostly second base.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Placed on Military Leave: Adam Groesbeck...The Braves knew this was coming. Groesbeck was a 38th rounder last month out of the Air Force Academy. After graduating, Groesbeck had 60 days of leave and a majority of that was spent with the Braves' organization. The outfielder played in 14 games before leaving the team and struggled mightily with just two hits in 39 PA. He walked seven times and struck out eleven. Groesbeck was among the top hitters in Division I baseball last year with a .410/.460/.649 line over 50 games. According to new requirements put in place last April, Groesbeck must serve two years of active duty before requesting Ready Reserve status (which would last five years). As such, Groesbeck exchanges his baseball uniform for a military one and will begin his primary career as a drone pilot.

DSL
Nothing Reported

Monday, July 10, 2017

First Half Timeline for the Braves

By EricEnfermero [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons
The Braves enter the All-Star Break at 42-45, 9.5 games out of the Eastern Division and nine games behind the Rockies for the second Wild Card spot. Two other teams, the Cardinals and Cubs, are a half-game in front of them. Their expected win-loss record is actually worse at 39-48, a product of a bad pitching staff.

How did we get here? Here's a timeline of the first half of the season.

April 3: Opening day and the Braves fall 6-0 to the Mets. Their opening day roster included Emilio Bonifacio and Eric O'Flaherty, two guys the Braves brought back after they both struggled in 2016 for Atlanta. Not on the roster is Sean Rodriguez, who some believe will miss the season after he was involved in a car accident with a drunk driver.

April 17: After losing six of their first seven ballgames, the Braves won five consecutive games to pull to .500. This streak was capped off by a four-game sweep to open SunTrust Park, including a walk-off 5-4 win against the Padres after Dansby Swanson singled with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth to finish the series. The Braves were 6-6 on the year. They would lose their next six straight and have yet to get back to .500.

April 19: In a sign of things to come, Julio Teheran is hammered for seven runs over four innings against the Nationals in his second start at SunTrust. In nine home starts during the first half of the season, Teheran allowed four or more runs six times. He only allowed that many runs in nine road starts once. The Braves have won only two of Teheran's home starts and have lost just two of his road starts.

April 29: The Braves score double digit runs in back-to-back games for the only time this season as they beat the Brewers 10-8 and 11-3. The first victory came after Bartolo Colon and Jason Motte combined to put the Braves in an 8-4 hole entering the seventh. Freddie Freeman finished the comeback with a two-run homer in the top of the ninth.

May 10: Atlanta concludes a low point in the season as they follow up the two wins against the Brewers mentioned above by losing eight-of-nine games to drop to a season-worst nine games under .500. This included a 16-5 bloodbath at the hands of the Mets on May 3 in which Colon gave up five runs in four innings. Of his 13 starts with the Braves, Colon surrendered five or more runs eight times - including his final four starts.

May 17: The Braves have righted the ship, winning five-of-six, but the fifth win was a costly one as Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Aaron Loup nails Freddie Freeman on the wrist during his fifth-inning at-bat. Freeman is immediately removed and further tests reveal a fracture. He's originally expected to miss at least two months.

May 20: John Coppolella decisively acts to fill the hole created by Freeman's injury as he acquires Matt Adams from the Cardinals. Adams, who had lost essentially all of his playing time after the Cardinals moved Matt Carpenter to first, makes an immediate impact with the Braves. In his second game, he blasts a two-run homer in a 5-2 win over the Pirates. The next night, after Jim Johnson blows a save, Adams finishes a two-run rally with an RBI walk-off single. He had also homered in the game.

June 7: Three days after scoring 13 runs, the Braves set a season-high with 14 runsagainst the Phillies. Nick Markakis picks up five RBI with three doubles while Matt Adams and Dansby Swanson each homer. Mike Foltynewicz throws seven shutout frames - though the Braves offense didn't need such excellent pitching.

June 10: Atlanta plays their only double-header of the first half and drops both games to the Mets. They scored just two runs and waste Sean Newcomb's debut. The lefty was masterful over 6.1 innings. Only an error, charged to Newcomb, led to a run. He walked two and struck out seven, but takes the loss. With a Game Score of 68, it is tied for the eighth-best major league debut in Braves history.

June 12: The Braves make Kyle Wright the fifth overall draft choice of the 2017 Draft. Wright, the ace of the Vanderbilt staff, was lauded for his pitchability, stuff, and potential for a quartet of plus pitches. They would later add Drew Waters, a player with potential five-tool skills. The Braves showed with this draft that they were willing to play the hand that was dealt to them. A year after championing the quantity of prospects from a deep draft, they aimed at hitting on a few quality picks in this year's shallow draft.

June 17: Jaime Garcia gives up six runs, but the Braves win 8-7. It was the beginning of a bad streak of games for Garcia to finish the half. Including this game against the Marlins, Garcia surrendered five or more runs in four consecutive starts with an ERA of 9.41 during those starts. The Braves offense bails him out enough to win two of those games, though. Before the streak, Garcia looked like this year's Shelby Miller with a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 3.16.

June 21: Braves walk-off for the third time in six days and for the sixth time during the first half. After Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson blow a two-run lead - again robbing Newcomb of a win - Matt Kemp hits the third homerun of the game for the Braves, a two-run bomb to lead to a 5-3 win. The previous weekend, Brandon Phillips had smoked hits through the Marlins infield to win in walk-off fashion in consecutive days. The Braves would follow up the Giants walk-off win by winning their next three to get to 36-38.

June 30: Mike Foltynewicz comes oh, so close to history. He tosses eight no-hit innings before a homerun to open the ninth breaks the hearts of many Braves fans who had stayed up late to watch and listen to the game in Oakland. What made the result even worse was that it looked like Foltynewicz had gotten a strikeout earlier in the at-bat, but the umpire disagreed. Foltynewicz throws 119 pitches during the game and in addition to the one hit allowed, he walked four and struck out eight.

July 4: Originally expected to miss at least two months, Freddie Freeman returns after just 44 games  to face the Astros on Independence Day. To help the team, Freeman volunteers to move to third base to keep Matt Adams in the lineup. Atlanta goes 24-20 without their best player. Unfortunately, the Braves will get demolished 16-4. The next night is nearly just as demoralizing as the Braves get beat by possibly the best team in baseball, 10-4. Also on the fourth, the Braves officially released Bartolo Colon. He lasted 13 games with the team.

July 7: With Braves fans excited about their team's prospects for hunting down the Nationals, Jim Johnson falls apart in a 5-4 walkoff loss to the NL East leaders. Atlanta had a chance to once again get to one-game under .500, but Johnson, who has struggled this year when used on back-to-back days, blows a three run lead. Ian Krol finishes the sad effort by giving up a walk-off hit in the tenth.

July 9: A day after smashing the Nationals 13-0, the Braves finish with a disappointing split of their final series against of the first half after losing 10-5.

Atlanta will be back in action on Friday as they welcome the Diamondbacks to Atlanta for the beginning of a six-game homestand that will also include the Cubs.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Newcomb, Medlen, Pike, Minter

Lots of moves to report this week in this recap. A top prospect is promoted to the bigs, a former prospect works his way up the ladder, and a non-prospect continues his wayward journey to never spend too much time in one city. Hope you enjoy!

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between June 6 and June 12. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta
Hursh (3rd across) | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Recalled from Mississippi, Optioned to Gwinnett, and Recalled Again: Jason Hursh...Don't look now, but Hursh has added some velocity to his heater and hit 96.18 mph last week. If he can throw that heavy fastball with that kind of velocity and location, the Braves may have themselves a prospect after all. He was dealing for both Mississippi and Gwinnett this year. At 25, it's time to see if he can stick in the majors for good now.

Recalled: Lane Adams...Most players are kind of boring to follow on twitter. They retweet generic inspirational posts, reach out to their hometown buddies, or say "let's go get 'em" each time there is a game. Lane Adams, though, is a joy to follow. Recent tweets include him taking someone to task for being a "true fan," his endorsement of the Minute Maid soft-frozen lemonade (which he says is the "bomb dot com"), and advising women to stop bedazzling their capris. His twitter feed was major league quality long before he was brought back to the majors.

Recalled and Optioned to Gwinnett: Matt Wisler...Hitters in general show improvement the more times in a game they see a pitcher so I don't want you to fall in love with these splits, but opposing OPS from the first appearance against Wisler in a game to the fourth appearance ranges from .741 to .795 to .837 to .925. He's got a good slider and likely would add a few ticks to his heater (currently in the 93 mph range) if he was in a relief role. Is it time to consider that?

Called Up: Sean Newcomb (#2)...I wrote a blurb about Newcomb yesterday so I don't want to repeat myself much. What I didn't mention yesterday is the news that dropped about Newcomb. He'll get at least a second start. Are you hyped yet?

DL'd: Bartolo Colon (left oblique/general awfulness)...Colon's greatest contribution to the Braves this year has been hitting the DL so Newcomb could be promoted. That's just a sad fact. He has a 5.09 FIP, his highest walk rate since Barrack Obama's first year, and an xFIP of 4.83 - which would be a new high (the stat goes back to 2002). But hey, we got plenty of fat jokes along the way.

DL'd: Adonis Garcia (left finger/general awfulness)...The nearly everyday third baseman (for reasons) is back on the DL for a second time this season. He has a .282 OBP this year which is just 20 points below his career average so...yay for a regression to the norm at some point...

DL'd: Eric O'Flaherty (left shoulder/general awfulness)...My daughter was given a gobstopper and immediately tried to bite it down and crunch it. I told her that she needs to suck it first because it's too hard to bite. She said she understood and wouldn't ya know it? She kept trying to bite it. I took it away from her because she wouldn't eat the candy properly. At some point, John Coppolella has to take away O'Flaherty from Brian Snitker because Snit won't use O'Flaherty properly. Over the last two seasons, lefties have a .292 wOBA against O'Flaherty with a 20% strikeout rate. Righties? They brutalize O'Flaherty to the tune of a .461 wOBA (not a typo). Yet, he's faced just one more lefty than he has a righty during that time. This season, he's faced five more righties than he has lefties! Coppy, take the gobstopper away from Snit. He's just going to use it wrong.

Released: Emilio Bonifacio...Could this be the end of the Braves/Boni relationship? One can hope. You have to give it up for Boni's consistency, though. In 2015, in 82 PA, he had a -0.7 fWAR. Last year, in 43 PA, he had -0.6 fWAR. This season, in 44 PA, he had a -0.6 fWAR. Only nine major league players were able to amass more than -1.5 fWAR over the last three years and to his credit, nobody did it more efficiently than Bonifacio (just 169 PA). It took Casey McGehee nearly 200 more PA to be that inept.

Gwinnett
Gaylor | Barry College
Promoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...This is actually Gaylor's second assignment in Gwinnett - he played there one game last year. Gaylor has some fans in the front office who keep promoting him despite some fairly un-noteworthy numbers. He was hitting just .118 in 13 games before joining Gwinnett after all and has a career .646 OPS, but the undrafted outfielder out of Berry College continues to climb the ladder.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kris Medlen...The comeback continued into its third different assignment as Medlen graduates from Florida and Mississippi on his way back to the majors. His first start in Gwinnett since 2012 wasn't great, though he did strike out six, a season high. The pinpoint control just isn't there yet and he'll need a bit more time, but the 31-year-old has looked strong in his five outings.

Activated: Aaron Blair...Following a short stint on the DL, Blair returned last week to make two starts. One was pretty ugly, but his Sunday start against Charlotte was superb with 6.1 innings, four hits, no runs, two walks, and five K's. Blair's control has been suspect all season and a pitcher with his limitations needs to be able to hit his spots much better.

Activated: Braeden Schlehuber...A fourth rounder in Frank Wren's first draft class (2008), Schlehuber is an organizational guy who I would be shocked to see not get a coaching assignment in the organization once he retires. He's been on the DL nearly as many times (three) this year as games played (four). On the plus side, on May 31, he hit his first home run since 2014.

Temporary Inactive: Caleb Dirks (#34)...I'm not real sure what this is about for Dirks. Likely, this is related to paternity leave, but in general, a temporary inactive placement is just a way to say the player in on paid leave. A placement like this requires at least three days away from the team. Dirks was placed on the list last Friday. He's struck out 40 over 34.1 innings compared to just ten unintentional walks. He has matched his career-high by surrendering three home runs and has an FIP of 3.29.

Released: Mel Rojas Jr....Rojas was a big minor league pickup last year and logged significant time this spring with the Dominican Republic squad this spring for the World Baseball Classic. That potentially was to his detriment as he missed out on an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Braves bench with Bonifacio. After a slow start with Gwinnett, Rojas was ready to try his luck elsewhere and asked for his release to sign with a team in Korea. The Braves obliged and Rojas will have a shot to make some good money in Asia.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Pike...Otherwise known as the other guy the Braves got in the Alex Jackson trade, Pike left a minor league system that does some questionable things to their arms to a system that gives more reasonable assignments and rewards performance. Lucky for all of us. Pike's improvement with his control that really began last year continued for Florida and he upped his groundball rate in the process. He carried a 2.94 FIP over nearly 70 innings with the Fire Frogs before the promotion. Pike was a former #126th overall pick so he's got some talent. If the Braves are able to develop that talent into an exciting prospect, they will show once more that sometimes, it's not the prospects who disappoint, but the scouting-and-development team that doesn't bring out the best of the prospect.

Parsons | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated with Gwinnett from extended spring, demoted from Gwinnett: Wes Parsons...For us that have watched Parsons struggle to stay on the mound, his promotion to Gwinnett was a nice moment. However, he got bashed around in his 8.1 innings and will return back to Mississippi, where he was impressive over 30.1 innings.

Activated: Bradley Roney (#38)...Roney has spent much of the season sidelined. He's only appeared in eleven games. His walk rate continues to be an issue (14% at Mississippi), which negates his very impressive strikeout numbers. Roney pitched 27 games in Gwinnett last season and has closer stuff. Will he ever hit the strike zone enough, though?

DL'd: Matt Withrow (#29)...After a tremendous beginning to the season, Withrow's numbers had really come back to Earth over his last four starts (18 ER in 17.1 ING with 10 BB and 15 K's). He now heads to the DL for the first time for the 2015 sixth rounder. The Texas Tech alum has a nice fastball with good sink, but doesn't get many grounders out of it. Withrow has a classic fastball/slider combination that might serve him well as a reliever or the Braves might keep him as a starter as he tries to develop his offspeed stuff because that makes him a better trade asset.

Florida
Activated from DL: A.J. Minter (#19)...It's been a tough season for Minter, who carried a great deal of hype into spring training. There was thought he might even jump to the majors and why not? He jumped from Rome to Mississippi in 13 games with a stop in Carolina last year. But he was slowed by injury this spring and when he finally got into a game on April 11th, he strained his groin. But on Sunday, he made his return and struck out all three batters he faced. Kids, time to get hyped again.

Promoted to Mississippi and demoted back: Andres Santiago...So, this is Santiago's season. He spent a week to open the year with Florida, was "sent" to Danville for three days, brought back to Florida for a dozen, "back" to Danville for four, and was added to Rome for nearly two weeks before returning to Florida on May 10. I'm not done. Ten days later, he "returned" to Danville for a week before coming back to Florida for about five days. He then went to Gwinnett for two days, back to Florida for four days, up to Mississippi for three days, and two days ago, he was demoted back to Florida. In two months, he's moved around more than I have in nearly 35 years on this planet. I need to do more with my life.

Rome
Promoted from extended spring: Alan Rangel...Plucked out of Mexico back in 2014 during Frank Wren's last international class, Rangel has spent his first two professional seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He struggled badly through his first run, but turned the corner a bit last year with 46.2 solid innings. Rangel works off his control, which is superb and gets some good downward movement on his pitches. He fit the mold that the Wren-era scouting team was looking for in that way. He was expected to be on the Danville roster when the season opened, but received a shot with Rome to show what he has. He scattered seven hits over 4.2 innings, but only one, a homer, led to a run. He also walked a batter and struck out four. Just 19, he might get an extended stay with the Danville pitching staff likely to be stacked from the draft.

Activated: Oriel Caicedo...An extreme control artist, Caicedo has walked just four in 43.1 innings this year for Rome. Overall, he has a mere 73 walks in 412.2 career innings. He'll never strikeout a lot and doesn't get a ridiculous amount of grounders, which is why he won't show up on your prospect lists, but he's a solid dependable arm who can start when needed.

DL'd: Ryan Lawlor...Selected in 2015 with the #240th overall pick, Lawlor skipped Rome last year on his way to Carolina. He struggled there with an ERA and FIP near 5.00 before being demoted to Rome for this season. Though his ERA has been pedestrian (4.37), his peripherals have been wonderful (31% K-rate, 8% walk rate, no homeruns, 48% groundball rate, 2.03 FIP). I have not seen any report as to why he hit the DL, but he last pitched on May 31 and went 5.2 innings that day while matching his season and career-high in strikeouts with nine.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Jaret Hellinger...A 2015 20th rounder out of McDonough, GA, Hellinger has some good sinking stuff, but the southpaw struggled to put it together with Danville last year (4.42 FIP). He opened this season in extended spring training before getting a call-up in mid-May. His first outing was solid, but he struggled from there with a four-run four-inning start mixed in during his six-appearance run with Rome. Short of an injury, Hellinger might be stuck in Danville until their season begins.

DSL
Severino | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Assigned: Yenci Pena...Another one of the seven-figure prospects the Braves added last July, Pena us expected to add power as he ages (he's still just 16). A capable defender at shortstop, there is concern whether he'll stay there long-term, but for now, the Braves will roll with him at the position. He's gotten off to a 4-for-18 start with a pair of doubles, five strikeouts, and a steal.

Assigned: Yunior Severino (#44)...Signed for $1.9 million last July, Severino is one of the crown jewels of a massive class that also included Kevin Maitan, Abrahan Guiterrez, and the aforementioned Pena. He was ranked as the eighth-best prospect of last year's class and is a switch-hitting power hitter who may - and I stress may - be able to stay on the middle of the infield. Atlanta has decided for now to shift him over to second base, though opinions were split about whether he'd be able to stay at shortstop should the Braves had tried that. Severino is off to a 2-for-15 start with a double, three walks, and five strikeouts.

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Wisler, Blair, Medlen, and Wentz

In this weekly review of the Braves' transactions, we focus a good deal on the pitchers. Some are attempting to stay in the majors for good while others are trying to work their way back. Elsewhere, one of Atlanta's best young guns is back on the mound just a week after a liner had Braves fans holding their breaths after it struck him.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between May 23 and May 29. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta
Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons
Recalled: Matt Wisler...Wisler the Reliever, Part 2. Earlier in the year, Wisler came up and had two good outings and two rough ones - one in which he basically had to "wear it" as the Braves were pummelled 16-5. In two outings since returning, he's thrown four perfect frames with two strikeouts. That, at least, is something to build upon. Wisler's Triple-A ERA was high (5.20), but his FIP and xFIP were much more reasonable at 3.75 and 3.92 respectably. At the very least, I'd much rather see him in long relief than the next guy.

Designated for assignment and outrighted to Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Well, that didn't take long. After 19 innings over three starts last September for the Braves, Collmenter can't even duplicate the innings output in 2017. The problem was fairly fundamental. The Braves bought into his brief success without looking at the obvious flaws. His FIP was a good two runs higher than his ERA over those three starts and that's ignoring two very troublesome seasons from 2015-16 as a whole. The Braves rolled the dice and quickly regretted it. Collmenter gave up one run for each of the 17 innings he pitched and often, those runs came on flyballs that haven't landed yet (7 HR!). According to the Braves transaction page, he accepted a demotion to Gwinnett.

Gwinnett
Activated: Enrique Burgos...The often wild, but electric Burgos worked a quiet first frame as a member of the Gwinnett Braves after he was acquired last week. Despite prolific strikeout numbers, the last time Burgos had a better than 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate was back in 2014. He's a project and at 26, probably not a project the Braves will have a wealth of patience to wait on.

Outrighted: Anthony Recker...Rarely used in Atlanta, Recker was DFA'd last week after the flurry of trades and roster moves. He passed through waivers and elected to stick with the team.

Promoted from Mississippi: Wes Parsons...For the second time, Parsons is now a Triple-A ballplayer. The first time came on April 28 when he made an one appearance run with Gwinnett. It's been a long - often arduous - road for Parsons to get to this point. After a combined 142.1 innings over the last three years, Parsons had already reached 30.1 innings this year before the promotion. He's probably a bit miscast as a reliever, but he still flashes plus-plus control. He worked a tough inning in his return, allowing three singles and a run while striking out two.

Rehab: Adonis Garcia...So, Garcia had a four-hit game yesterday. He's definitely coming back and it's going to be pretty darn interesting what happens when he does. I have to believe that John Coppolella will wave off any lobbying by Brian Snitker and sent Emilio Bonifacio packing. When Garcia returns, he will likely settle into a platoon option, though knowing Snitker, we may get more of a timeshare than a platoon which ignores the best parts of Rio Ruiz and Garcia's game.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
Rehab: Eric O'Flaherty...Last week, O'Flaherty hit the DL after aggravating his back giving up a homerun to Jose Bautista playing on the Toronto turf. He'll likely join the Braves soon after already making his first rehab appearance with a perfect frame. But should the Braves really roll out the carpet to welcome back him? We were told that after having his elbow cleaned out last year, he was feeling better than he had in a few years. There were reports he was getting sink on his pitches once again. And then the data came rolling in and said otherwise. According to PITCHf/x, at his best, O'Flaherty was getting between 5.71 and 6.74 of vertical movement on his sinker. It's down to 4.45 this season, which is actually very similar to last year's 4.56. His fourseamer had between 8.11 and 9.27 inches of vertical movement. It's been between 6.23 and 6.47 the last two seasons. He's using his slider a lot more now and getting half of the depth as his best Braves years. In his favor is that he's still handling lefties so far. That might be enough to get him back on the roster. But he's not "back" in the deeper sense. Not even a bit.

DL'd: Aaron Blair...Two years ago, Blair flashed plus-plus control with some newfound ability to induce his fair share of grounders. It made the Braves anxious to acquire him. Since coming to Atlanta, his control has never been worse (12.6 BB% this season), his strikeouts have never been worse, and his groundball rate has fallen ten points. Did the Braves rush him to the bigs last year? I don't think so. Blair's not making adjustments and that's not the fault of the Braves. He quickly fell into the habit of nibbling last year after he got to the majors. It reminds me of how Mike Minor pitched once he got to the majors from 2010-2012. His fear led him to give up baserunners in bunches until he finally started to trust his stuff. When that happened, Minor posted a 3.5 fWAR during 2013. Will Blair follow a similar path or will he continue to regress? Hopefully, it will be the former. I'm not sure why Blair hit the DL, by the way.

DL'd: Joel De La Cruz...He's spent more of the season on the DL than on the active roster. When he has been healthy, the results have been pretty miserable. Remember that this was a guy who threw 62.2 innings for last year's pitching staff.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Kris Medlen...After turning some heads with a six shutout innings in his 2017 debut, Medlen was roughed up by Clearwater last week for five runs in 5.1 ING. Nevertheless, he received a promotion up the ladder as he tries to work his way back into the picture. The control has been suspect, which you might expect from a guy working off the rust. The Braves could use all the help they can get and if Medlen does make it all the way back, he'll certainly force Atlanta to make a potentially tough decision.

Activated: Stephen Gaylor...The left-hand hitting outfielder has played in just a dozen games this season and is off to a 3-for-30 start with two walks. An undrafted free agent back in 2014, Gaylor showed a decent enough hit tool until arriving in Carolina last year. It's gotten much worse at Double-A.

Activated: Danny Reynolds...Picked up after becoming a minor league free agent this offseason, Reynolds' fourth season at Double-A has been a mixed bag. His groundball rate has shot up and his control is a bit improved compared to the previous two seasons, but his strikeouts have declined. His 5.48 ERA is a bit misleading - his LOB% is 56% - but his FIP and xFIP tell two different stories (3.33/4.56).

Demoted to Extended Spring: Connor Lien (#36)...It's hard to be too disappointed with Lien this year. With a deeper system than two years ago, he was no longer a borderline Top 20 prospect. Of course, his injury-riddled 2016 was also a factor. Though, even if he wasn't a major prospect anymore, this season has been tough to watch Lien go through. He was hitting .187/.268/.343 at the time of his demotion with 59 K's in 149 PA. That comes out to a nearly 40% strikeout rate - about 15% higher than his 2015 campaign. He has looked lost and unable to turn it around. Perhaps sometime at extended spring where he can clear his head will help.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him
on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
DL'd: Bradley Roney (#38)....It's been a tough campaign for Roney, whose talented by wild arm had him pitching meaningful games in the International League playoffs last year. After opening the year on the DL, he headed to Florida in late April before a promotion to Mississippi. He was actually doing okay there and unintentionally walked just four of the first 36 he faced while striking out a dozen, but he's now back on the DL.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Matt Gonzalez...Picked in the sixth round last year out of Georgia Tech, Gonzalez missed the first month of action while in extended spring training until a call-up after the first week of May. He then spent just 16 games in Rome, hitting .300/.355/.329. He picked up starts at third and in left and made a cameo at second base. It's second base that might help Gonzalez find some playing time in Florida as Alay Lago has underwhelmed to this point.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Andres Santiago...Often one of the names that fluctuates on-and-off the roster, Santiago has appeared nine times this year, including seven games with Florida. The results haven't been there for the eleven-year veteran, though the strikeouts look great (21 in 14.2 ING).

Released: J.B. Moss...To make room for Gonzalez, the Braves cut Moss, a seventh-round selection last year. Moss had blitzed the Appalachian League after being drafted, but the former Texas A&M star struggled with Carolina and then this season in his brief twelve games with Florida. Moss's value with the Braves was tied into how much money he saved them by signing under-slot last June. It's the tough thing about being signed less for your potential and more about allowing the team to sign the guys they actually want.

Rome
Activated: Joey Wentz (#14)...Good to see the southpaw Wentz back out there on Memorial less than two weeks after taking a liner off his leg. He tossed four innings of one-run ball in his return with a walk and three strikeouts. On the year, Wentz has a 3.18 ERA and over a strikeout an inning.

Promoted from Extended Spring: Ramon Osuna...With Rome getting little-to-no production from Anthony Concepcion and Kurt Hoekstra at first base, Osuna will get a chance to see if he can help out. A 14th round pick out of Walters State Community College in Morristown, TN last year, Osuna hit .276/.342/.423 with four homers in Danville. He struck out a ton (29%) and the former corner outfielder in college struggled with his new role at first base. Hopefully, an offseason of fine-tuning his skills will help him look more comfortable at first base.

Demoted from Mississippi: Joe Rogers...The late-spring cut by the Tigers has shown up a number of times in this series as he cycled on-and-off the Mississippi roster while only pitching three games.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Raymar Navarro...The Cuban righty has been limited to just five games with Rome this year. They have been successful for the most part, but the 26-year-old is not progressing up the depth chart despite pitching 67 innings last year at High-A.

DL'd: Oriel Caicedo...There have been two Oriel Caicedos in professional baseball. Both were signed out of Panama by the Braves. One is 26 and hasn't played since 2011 while the other recently hit the DL. Caicedo is no spring chicken at 23 years-old and made his debut in 2011...where he played with the other Oriel Caicedo. Seriously, this is something for me to obsess about. New Caicedo has impeccable control (just 71 unintentional passes in 411.2 innings), but also won't pick up many K's. He's been a swingman throughout his career and this marks his third year with Rome. Not sure what sent Caicedo to the DL.

Friday, May 26, 2017

Prepping for the Trade Deadline: Part 1

(Written by Ryan Cothran, a contributor at Walk-Off Walk for the last few weeks. Previous columns by Cothran include one on BABIP, the bullpen, and reviewing the Braves' buy-low philosophy on Tommy John survivors. Remember to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Yes, the trade deadline is a little way off, but let it be known that Braves General Manager John Coppolella is always anxious to make a deal and a single date doesn’t hold weight on this trading stallion. Therefore, we need to be prepared, and this article will help us get there.

If 2017 is a mirror of the past 2 years of Braves baseball, it’s going to be an active trade deadline for Coppy and the crew. Whether it be buying, selling, or a little bit of both, you can bet your sweet pippy the Braves will be dealing.

Here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2015. Note that at this time, Coppy was not yet named the GM, but most agree that these were Coppy's deals and John Hart was merely there to provide guidance and a helping hand:


And here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2016:


What will 2017’s trade deadline look like for our beloved Braves?

2015 was all about selling off the veterans, dead money, or debt consolidation for wild card prospects. The team was dead in the water and had no chance to compete. We knew it. Braves knew it.

2016 was much the same, rather the prospects were better, the deals were riskier (acquiring Matt Kemp), but most worked out in the Braves favor.

2017...if only we had a crystal ball. What will the Braves record be like approaching the deadline? If the last few weeks are any indication, I’d say that this team will be hovering around .500 come late June and that is lightyears better than what we’ve had these last 2 abysmal years. In dissecting Coppy’s track record, we can see who’s most likely to be on another team come July: 1-year veterans.  Here’s a list of players that have 1 year of control on their contract:

Brandon Phillips
Bartolo Colon
Jaime Garcia
Jason Motte
Kurt Suzuki
Emilio Bonifacio
Eric O’Flaherty
*I’m not including R.A. Dickey or Tyler Flowers on this list even though they are both on 1-year deals, but have reasonable options.


Of the players above, Phillips, Garcia, Motte, and Suzuki are the 4 that have established some value this year.  Colon could be bought based on reputation alone, but I don’t think there’s any team that would even take O’Flaherty or Bonifacio for free at this point.

However, if the Braves are looking competitive AND their best hitter in Freddie Freeman is set to return, one has to weigh the +/- of trading any of the vets that have value. The biggest question to answer would be “Are there suitable replacements?”  That, my friends, is a hard question to answer.

Replacing Traded Pieces

Replacement for Brandon Phillips? Ozzie Albies has taken to adjusting at AAA Gwinnett. In his last 20 games, he has a .296/.367/.432/.799 slash-line with 3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 6 SB and 0 CS. He’s younger and at this stage of Brandon’s career, will provide better defense. But Brandon’s on pace for a 2.5 fWAR year, is putting up solid numbers across the board, and has been a really nice addition to a Braves lineup that’s lacked good production from 2nd base. If Braves are competing, I think it’s hard to pull the trigger.

Weigel | Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
Replacement for Bartolo Colon? Lucas Sims and Sean Newcomb have both taken their lumps of late, but Bartolo has taken his the entire year up until last start. There’s no doubt that having Bartolo on the team has a positive effect on our players, especially Latin Americans, but from a player’s perspective, his production seems replaceable on the surface given either of the two above could get the call - along with guys like Kris Medlen, Luke Jackson, or even Patrick Weigel.

Replacement for Jaime Garcia? It sounds weird to “sell-high” on a starting pitcher that’s sporting a 4.07 ERA, but that’s what the Braves could do with Jaime Garcia.  Left-handed pitchers are coveted in the MLB and Jaime’s peripherals tell a different story than his actual production. I’m afraid that if the Braves don’t move him soon, his numbers could balloon or his injuries pop up again. Insert same guys for Jaime’s replacement with more emphasis on Newcomb for handedness.

Replacement for Jason Motte? There are plenty of candidates for a Motte replacement, but all seem to come with the dreaded taint of being walk-heavy.  Motte’s great start has been a bit smoky and mirrory as his LOB is a crazy 94.8%, but make no mistake he has been effective. Luke Jackson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Akeel Morris seem like logical fits should any of the three find their control.

Replacement for Kurt Suzuki? At this point, I think the Braves would rather extend Suzuki for another year rather than trade him. There aren’t real replacements at Gwinnett (David Freitas, maybe?) and Kade Scivicque is at Mississippi, but that’d be rushing his development, especially as a hitter. Trading Suzuki doesn’t seem wise unless the Braves can acquire their future catcher at the deadline.

Replacement for Emilio Bonifacio, Eric O’Flaherty? While this likely isn’t trade deadline stuff as I don’t think these three will be around by then, replacing these guys seem rather easy:
Lane Adams for Emilio
Rex Brothers for O’Flaherty

What to expect in return for these trades?

If the Braves are trading any of their 1-year veterans, the less the acquiring team has to pay, the better the return. With that in mind, a team in desperate need of 2B production could send a B/B+ prospect to the Braves. Prospects the Braves have acquired in the past 2 years that fit that description are John Gant, Robert Whalen, Touki Toussaint, Akeel Morris, and Travis Demeritte

For the rest, it depends on what Coppy has up his sleeve. There’s a lot he could do with excess cash at the trade deadline and filling holes with high-end cost-heavy talent wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

Thanks for reading! Look for part 2 of this piece which will address Organizational Surplus.