Trade Retrospective: The Jermaine Dye Trade

A few months ago, I took a look back at the trade that sent Jair Jurrjens to the Braves and Edgar Renteria to the Tigers. The idea is that a trade goes beyond just what the guy does in that year or the next. Today, let's take a look back at one of John Schuerholz's more controversial deals.

March 27, 1997
The Atlanta Braves trade P Jaime Walker and OF Jermaine Dye to the Kansas City Royals for 2B Keith Lockhart and OF Michael Tucker.

In the wake of the trade that brought Kenny Lofton to the Braves, Atlanta announced a head-scratcher that sent Jermaine Dye to the Kansas City Royals along with lefty Jaime Walker for a pair of left-handed hitters, Lockhart and Tucker. Dye had arrived in the majors the previous season as the replacement to an injured David Justice. He hit .281/.304/.459 with 12 HR in a shade over 300 plate appearances. It wasn't too surprising considering Dye was a Top 30 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America heading into 1996. When Justice was traded, it looked like the Braves would leave right field open for Dye, but that did not last too long.

When people remember this deal, they hardly ever recall Walker. They might, like me, think "wasn't there a random reliever in the deal, too?" A few months before this trade, Atlanta had picked up the southpaw in the Rule 5 draft from the Astros organization.

As for the package coming to Atlanta, Lockhart was a three year veteran after arriving in the bigs in 1994 with the Padres. He had landed in Kansas City and over two years, had hit .291/.33/.437 in 700 AB. Not too shabby. He even stole eleven bases in 1996, one more base than he would swipe in six long years with the Braves. Tucker was the tenth overall pick of the 1992 draft out of Longwood and had arrived in the majors in 1995. In 170 games and nearly 600 trips to the plate, Tucker was slashing .260/.341/.422. While we bemoan this deal, those looked like pretty good numbers coming back to the Braves.

Lockhart represented an alternative to Mark Lemke and Tony Graffanino while Tucker would be asked to be a primary option against right-handed pitching for the Braves. Tucker would notably pick up the first HR and RBI at Turner Field on April 4, 1997 against the Cubs.

First Level Analysis
Atlanta			Kansas City
Lockhart +1.6 WAR			Dye +3.6 WAR
Tucker +3.6 WAR			Walker -0.5 WAR

First Level: If we look specifically at those traded in this deal, the Braves don't come out of it looking too bad. Lockhart spent six years in Atlanta, though the last two were negative WAR years. Tucker spent just two years in Atlanta, but his first year was a 3 WAR campaign. Again, not too shabby. On the other hand, it took Dye three years until he finally found his bat in Kansas City. He would be traded during his fourth year. Walker lasted two pretty ugly years in Kansas City where he appeared in 56 games and 2 starts. The Royals cut him in 2000. Two years later, he landed in Detroit for several years as a LOOGY.

Second Level Analysis
Atlanta			Kansas City
Bret Boone -0.2 WAR			Neifi Perez -3.2 WAR
Mike Remlinger +5.0 WAR			/

Second Level: This trade is actually looking pretty good now. The Royals essentially found a way to turn Tucker and Lockhart into Perez, who was an utter failure in Kansas City. I'm astonished that the Royals didn't make the playoffs for such a long period. Meanwhile, the Braves packaged Tucker in a trade with Denny Neagle and Rob Bell to get Boone, who sucked, and Remmy, who was superb over a four year run as one of the best relievers in baseball.

Third Level Analysis
Atlanta			Kansas City
Wally Joyner +0.2 WAR			/
Reggie Sanders +0.2 WAR			/
Quilvio Veras +3.8 WAR			/

Third Level: Atlanta continues to benefit from the Dye trade. Boone, who Tucker helped acquire, was packaged in a trade with Ryan Klesko to get Joyner, Sanders, and Veras. While this trade ultimately made the Braves look bad as Klesko finally got a chance to show what he could do if he wasn't limited by platoon, it still helps the Braves in the sense of Dye's trade. Joyner and Sanders each spent one year with the Braves and while Sanders was disappointing, he still provided good defense. Veras had a monster first year before an injury set him back. That would repeat itself the following year as well.

Final Analysis: The Atlanta Braves won every level of this trade and ultimately amassed 14.2 WAR while the Royals ended up in the negative (-0.1 WAR). Of course, if you include other trades like the Padres one where Klesko alone accounted for 16.6 WAR as a Padre, that certainly doesn't look good, but that gets away from analyzing the original deal. In those terms, the Braves easily win this trade.

That said, Braves fans may naturally wonder just how good Dye would have been in Atlanta away from the neverending losing effort in KC at the time.

Trade Retrospective: Jair/Renty

Most have this belief that who ultimately wins a trade is based on the players that are actually in the trade. This tends to not be true in many instances. For instance, take the trade that sent Justin Upton and Aaron Northcraft to the Padres this winter. Now, we can put up the value that Upton posts and compare that with the value that the four prospects the Braves got out of the deal post for the Braves (that may take awhile), but doing so ignores a few things. If Upton leaves San Diego after this season, the Padres likely present a qualifying offer to Upton, which will bring a draft choice between the first and the second rounds. Also, maybe the Braves end up trading Jace Peterson. There are levels of deciding the winner of a trade that ultimately take a few years to see. Of course, we can further complicate things by looking even deeper, such as did acquiring Upton help get the Padres to the playoffs, but that's an opinion. An educated one, but an opinion. So, I'm going to try to look at some big trades the Braves have done over the years and, using WAR from Fangraphs, let's see who the winner is.

October 29, 2007
The Atlanta Braves acquire P Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez and trade SS Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers

Background: The Braves pitching in 2007 was pretty horrendous. The front of the rotation was solid, but the 2007 Braves used Buddy Carlyle as a starter 20 times and gave a combined 43 starts to this group of failures: Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redmon, and Jeff Bennett. Their only pitching prospects had been traded to the Rangers. The Braves needed options and a MLB-ready pitcher like Jurrjens was a perfect addition. Renty had been phased out by a young double-play combination, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar. He also had one year left on his mega deal he had signed with the Red Sox, plus an option that the Red Sox would cover about 30% of. The deal would be Frank Wren's first as general manager and ultimately one of his best.

Atlanta			Detroit
Jurrjens +9.0 WAR			Renteria +1.2 WAR

First Level: Renteria would play only one season with the Tigers and, coming after two seasons where he was around 4 fWAR, his 2008 was a major letdown. His offensive profile was pretty similar to his one year with the Red Sox, though he did walk less. That season in Boston is why the Braves had him in the first place. As Renty wasn't offered arbitration, the Tigers did not receive a draft choice once he signed with the Giants. The Tigers will only receive 1.2 fWAR from this trade. Meanwhile, Jurrjens would outperform Renty in his first year with the Braves and would post back-to-back 3 fWAR years before injuries began to accumulate, leading to a trio of down years before he was non-tendered after the 2012 season. Hernandez would never play in Atlanta.

Atlanta
Nate McLouth +0.2 WAR

Second Level: Hardly much of an addition, McLouth was picked up during the 2009 season for Hernandez and two other prospects. McLouth posted pretty good numbers during his time with the Braves after the trade, giving him a 1.5 WAR. He would have an almost equally awful follow-up campaign. After a mediocre and injury-wrecked 2011, the Braves let McLouth hit free agency and did not get compensation.

Final Analysis: The Braves easily win the trade with 8.0 fWAR postive difference between the two teams. Of course, it could have been a lot worse had Jurrjens stayed healthy or had McLouth not fell on his face. I didn't include Jeff Locke or Charlie Morton, the two players who joined Hernandez in the McLouth trade, but if you added their collective WAR (6.3), the Braves are still looking pretty for now. But I didn't include those two because that trade should be looked at as its own trade. Ooo, the next Trade Retrospective is writing itself.