Will Matt Adams be a Brave in 2018?

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When Freddie Freeman went down, the Braves started Jace Peterson at first and signed James Loney. And for a minute, we thought that was the best the Braves could do. John Coppolella changed that by acquiring Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. While expectations weren't great for Adams, he was clearly an upgrade over in-house options - including Loney who asked for a release. Adams, who had been stuck on the Cardinals bench after they moved Matt Carpenter to first base, would take off after arriving in Atlanta. Over 39 games while Freeman was out, he blitzed the league to the tune of .285/.333/.589 with 12 HR. So good was his performance that when Freeman was ready to return, the Braves took him up on his suggestion and moved their franchise cornerstone to third base just to keep Adams in the lineup.

That would last most of July and while Adams continued to produce, he definitely cooled down. As the calendar changed over to August, the Braves moved Freeman back to first base, leaving Adams to play left field in Matt Kemp's absence or pinch-hit. He's hit just .227 since but has bashed four homers - including two pinch-hit moonshots.

As the season rolls to an end, the Braves have a choice to make with Adams. Let's look at the options:

Trade him: Easier Said Than Done

In 2017, Adams was paid $2.8 million for his services and will be arbitration-eligible for just one more season. He's a career .270/.315/.470 hitter with 75 home runs. He falls under the spectrum of productive, but not so productive that other teams are willing to spend much in terms of assets to acquire him. The Braves traded a corner infielder who has hit just 13 home runs in 201 games and might only profile as a first baseman because his defense at third base is so suspect. First basemen without power don't tend to keep a job for very long (i.e. James Loney).

Adams does have power - a good deal of it - and can hit the ball hard. Adams currently rests just outside the Top 50 in Barrels per plate appearance, which rates the quality of contact. When he puts the bat on the ball, it has a good chance of finding a hole. Does he have .283 ISO-type power, like he has shown this year? It's probably not something he can sustain, but he qualifies as a true power hitter with a career .199 ISO. That's a big boost to his value.

However, several things are working against the Braves as they consider dealing Adams.

• He's platoon-dependent. Over his career, Adams has a .256 wOBA against lefties. It's just as miserable this season at .244. Unfortunately, every team has access to Fangraphs so they also have this information. Acquiring Adams only works if you can match him up with a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties in the Matt Diaz mold. 
• He's position-dependent. Adams is a fine first baseman. He's not gifted at the position by any means, but since 2014, Adams actually profiles better than Freeman as a first baseman (4.8 UZR/150, 17 rPM, 15 DRS). Nobody is paying anyone for first baseman defense, though. Adams has played just 129.1 innings in left field and we simply can't gauge much of anything of his numbers, but the eye test suggests that Adams is probably going to be a negative defensively. It's too much of a stretch to believe he can play anywhere else. He's a first baseman who might play left field for you in a pinch. That limits his value to NL clubs who know they are going to have to platoon him. The AL teams that could have interest do have the DH, which opens up more possibilities.
• He's under team control for just 2018. The Braves paid next-to-nothing to acquire Adams and that was with a year-and-a-half of team control. The team acquiring Adams will have even less.

None of these conditions will erase any chance the Braves have of trading Adams, but they certainly limit the opportunities. One thing could work in their favor, though. Of the 21 full-time qualified first basemen this season, five are free agents. Two others, Lucas Duda and Mike Napoli, didn't qualify but have been regulars in the lineup and could also be free agents this offseason (Napoli has an option). Further, a DH like Carlos Beltran will also hit the open market. In addition, the Angels are a team that might entertain the idea of improving their first base production after a combined 0.7 fWAR from C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, and Jefry Marte. Suffice it to say, the market is theoretically available for Adams.

That said, a number of open jobs at first base/DH doesn't mean the same thing as open jobs in center field or at shortstop, positions where the market is depressed by so few capable players at the position. A number of the free agents this offseason with history at first base were also free agents last year. This is because most teams look at first base in this regard - it's great if you have a Freeman, but if you don't, you can find something that will work. You don't even need to be in a rush. The Rays signed Logan Morrison a week before spring training for nearly $2 million less than they paid him the previous year. It worked out pretty well for them and they weren't alone. The first base market rarely invites huge paydays because teams can just wait it out and go bargain shopping.

With Adams likely to earn $4M to $5M in arbitration, would any team really spend assets to acquire a guy that resembles several free agents that are already available and won't require a prospect? For that matter, they could be even cheaper than Adams. This is a problem the Braves will face in regards to dealing Adams this winter.

Non-Tender Him: But Why?

The Braves could see Adams as a luxury they can do without and simply non-tender him to open a 40-man roster spot. Such a decision would be a mistake in my view.

At $5M or so, Adams is an expensive bench piece, but the Braves will probably be able to deal with that. If they don't sign a third baseman - and Ronald Acuna takes over in right field as many expect - the Braves will open the season with half of their position starters earning the major league minimum. It would be a fair assumption that two of their rotation members will also make the minimum. Paying $5M for a bench player becomes much more bearable when you aren't spending heavily at other positions.

Beyond that, Adams does have value - value that would be wasted as a non-tendered free agent. I mentioned many of the negatives earlier because that hurts his trade value, but his offensive value is still quite apparent as he has a .335 wOBA since 2013. That ranks 74th among 238 players and it's better than Adam Jones, Beltran, Todd Frazier, and Evan Gattis. And since we know that he's a platoon player, we can reasonably assume that his wOBA would only look better if you limited it to facing right-hand pitching. And why assume when we can just look it up? Since 2013, Adams' .355 wOBA against right-hand pitching ranks 59th of 482 players (min. 370 PA against RHP).

If the Braves were in a financial crunch, I'd understand non-tendering Adams if a trade market never materialized - which is a real possibility. But I don't believe Atlanta will have to worry about that so why not keep Adams? Further, perhaps a trade market would come together as players go down or don't perform after spring camp opens up. Regardless, just cutting Adams is short-sighted and I think more of John Coppolella than that.

Keep Him: Cause Why The Hell Not?

If the Braves can't trade Adams and non-tendering him is a dumb move, that leaves the third option - keep him. And frankly, it might be the best option available even if Atlanta gets much interest in Adams this offseason.

The Braves are unlikely to trade Matt Kemp this winter. It'd be great if they can, but the sheer amount of financial responsibility the Braves would have to shoulder just to unload Kemp might be too much for the Braves to accept. Trading Nick Markakis to open up a spot for Acuna seems like the easier and more likely play. That leaves Atlanta to hope Kemp loses all the weight, keeps it off, and performs once again. Pretty much the same thing they hoped for last winter.

Whatever the case, the Braves seem stuck here. Here's the thing, though. If you are willing to play Kemp in left field with all of his atrocious defense, why wouldn't you also be willing to play Adams out there? Both players need a defensive caddy (Hi, Lane Adams!) and with Kemp seemingly always dealing with hamstring and knee issues, having Matt Adams' bat around could be useful for the Braves. Yeah, the defense sucks, but honestly, Adams could be better than Kemp defensively. Here's a fun stat for all of you Josh Browns of the world. Sprint speed is measured by feet per second. 447 players qualify currently and ranking 398th is Kemp with a sprint speed of 25.6 ft/sec. Adams is slightly quicker at 26.1 ft/sec. While speed isn't everything (Ender Inciarte ranks 173rd overall), there's at least an argument that Adams is a comparable - maybe even better - left fielder than Kemp. Probably not better, but Kemp is so bad that Adams can't be any worse. Presumably, with even more time in left field, Adams stands a shot at improving. Not a good one, but we know Kemp isn't going to get any better.

Pinch-Hit Homers by the Braves

Remember when I said that keeping Adams maybe even better than trading him? Think about what the Braves might get for trading Adams. Well, we don't really know that, but we can make the reasonable assumption that it won't be greater than what the Braves gave up to originally acquire him. That would mean Atlanta would likely receive a borderline Top 75 prospect in this organization. Probably something between what they received for Jaime Garcia (Huascar Ynoa) and Brandon Phillips (Tony Sanchez). Now, that player could be a fun project, but it's probably going to be a guy who won't ultimately play for the Braves or turn into a good tradeable asset. And by the way...the Braves' lower minor league teams are already packed with project players.

Keeping Adams gives the Braves a bat off the bench - something they lacked when the 2017 season opened - who provides depth at 1B and LF. That depth could be important when you consider that Freeman has missed about 80 games to injury over the last three years (including a healthy 2016). Conversely, Kemp bends over and misses two weeks. That's being mean, but having Adams for depth could be useful to help the Braves should either player go down. Further, Adams could fetch a better prospect from a desperate team later. That last part is wishful thinking, but it's not impossible.

In the end, short of being surprised on the trade market this offseason, the best bet is to keep Adams moving forward into the 2018 season. Do you agree? Let me know in the comment section.

The Youth Movement Is Finally Here

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You'd be forgiven if at times this season, you said, "where's all these prospects we traded everyone I knew for?"

The opening day lineup included five players over the age of 30. Two of the five reserves used that day were over 30. That doesn't include Emilio Bonifacio, Kurt Suzuki, Jaime Garcia, Jim Johnson, Sam Freeman, or Josh Collmenter - all regular faces over the first few months who were in the Age-30 season or older. Oh, and that definitely doesn't include R.A. Dickey or Bartolo Colon, who both hit their 30's over a decade ago. For a team that was all about the rebuild, this was an old team and a guy like Jason Motte didn't help make it any younger.

It was frustrating for casual and decidedly more-than-casual fans of the team to watch as prospects began to accumulate in Gwinnett while Adonis Garcia and Eric O'Flaherty appeared with regularity and disappointment over the first few months. You may have even lost a bit of your faith in the Braves front office and management. It's okay if you did. Like I said, you're forgiven.

On Wednesday night, we witnessed the latest example of what this youth movement might mean. Facing a playoff bound team destined to win 95 or so games, the Braves beat the Nationals with ease, leaning on a young quartet of pitchers. Sure, Matt Kemp's Grand Slam was the Sportscenter highlight, but the real story of this game was the youngins.

On the mound to begin the game was Luiz Gohara, who just turned 21 on the last day of July. Embarrassed by first-game jitters his last time out, Gohara took the mound against Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman and made the Nationals quite aware that the young lefty just might be a problem for them to deal with for the next half-decade. With control that was missing his first time out, Gohara surgically placed his 97 mph fastball wherever he wanted throughout the evening. He then followed that up with his slider, which had the Nationals swinging themselves into pretzels. He was even able to spot his much-improved changeup, using it effectively to keep the Washington hitters at bay. It was the kind of stuff that may have made Bryce Harper happy to still be on the shelf.

Anyone impressed w/Acuña's rise through the system should look @ Gohara. He did the same thing, hitting AA 7 days after & AAA 13 days after. https://t.co/WNr0uNR2cq

— Matt Chrietzberg (@MChrietzberg) September 14, 2017

He's right, ya know.

The Braves followed Gohara's outing with the 27-year-old rookie, Dan Winkler. Since he returned to the team last month, Winkler has been nearly as a lights-out as he was at the beginning of last season before he fractured his elbow. A rare bullpen piece that throws five pitches, Winkler gave his changeup the night off and worked instead off his four-seamer, cutter, and slider with a sinker tossed in there for good measure. Whatever he threw, the Nats were powerless. Howie Kendrick hit a grounder to short while Michael Taylor struck out looking. Jayson Werth saw three fastballs, including a cutter, before swinging over an 82 mph slider.

A.J. Minter got the call next and Turner singled off him. That at-bat followed back-to-back strikeouts of Matt Wieters and Raudy Reed with the latter looking just sad against Minter's slider. Randy, don't disappear. You aren't the first, nor will you be the last to look to the heavens as the slider defies physics. Minter toyed with Wilmer Difo next, throwing the infielder four sliders at 89-90 mph before throwing a 97 mph fastball that Difo could only look at.

With the lead safely in hand, the Braves called on Lucas Sims to finish it. A starter by trade, the 23-year-old Sims has been moved into a bullpen role and he drew three of the better bats in Wednesday's lineup - Rendon, Zimmerman, and Kendrick. They didn't have a chance against Sims' four-pitch mix of a 93-94 mph fastball, 87-89 mph slider, and the occasional 84 mph change and 82 mph curve. Zimmerman struck out for the second time in the game and the Braves' rookie arms struck out 12 overall.

Not to be outdone, the front two batters in the lineup, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson, reached base a combined four times, scored twice, and were credited with three runs driven in. Lane Adams, another 27-year-old rookie who keeps hitting, filled in admirably for Ender Inciarte with three hits, including his first major league triple.

On Wednesday, we didn't see Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, or Johan Camargo, but all four are 25-and-under and contributing.

This season has been trying for Braves fans - myself included. Watching Jason Motte get innings while Akeel Morris remained in Gwinnett was difficult. And watching Adonis Garcia play over Rio Ruiz was very frustrating. For a rebuilding team, the Braves of the first several months seemed awfully focused on the here-and-now while ignoring the future. That much appears to be changing. The Braves are beginning to put the kids first and it's about time.

On Thursday, the Braves started just three players over the age of 30.

It's progress. And progress, my dear friends, is a good thing.

Transaction Tuesday: Gohara, Touki, Alex Jackson, Slugbauer

It was an extra-busy week in big-time promotions for the Atlanta Braves organization this week. While the trading deadline was a bit of a letdown in terms of transactions, there's plenty here to cover and much of it is positive.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 25 to July 31. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
Recalled: Lane Adams...Another go around in the bigs for the 27-year-old, who began this season with just three plate appearances in the majors back in 2014. Adams got into Monday's game and picked up a RBI single. It was his seventh pinch-hit of the season in 28 PA, which is two more than Danny Santana for the team-lead and gives Adams nearly a quarter of Atlanta's pinch-hits on the year. Adams isn't a great player by any means but seems suited well for the fourth outfielder role.

Recalled: Jason Hursh (#42)...This callup is likely going to resemble his previous several callups in that it will probably be short. Hursh has done decently with his 8.2 in the majors, but can't seem to get a long enough look to stick. With Lucas Sims joining the team today, Hursh likely will draw the short straw.

Recalled: Micah Johnson...Micah was killing it in Triple-A. Over eleven games, he hit a robust .378/.452/.568 with three doubles, two triples, and five walks. Naturally, the Braves brought him up to let him sit on the bench. He's now 0-for-3 - all pinch-hit appearances - with two strikeouts. While I understand that Johnson's not the biggest prospect by any means, it seems shortsighted to not roll the dice and see if he keeps hitting - especially when right-handers are on the mound.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Disabled: Matt Kemp...On June 2, Matt Kemp went 3-for-5 to improve his batting line to .352/.387/.614. Since then, he's hit .227/.285/.337 while playing woeful defense. There are times that we flash back to the Kemp of old - the former MVP candidate and one of the game's best. Most of the time, though, the Braves have this version of Kemp. A guy who is trying to gut it out through a variety of leg ailments. Right now, it's his hamstring that's forced him to the DL. On the plus side, his balky knees will be given a rest for a change.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Luiz Gohara (#8)...The southpaw from Brazil is making Jerry Dipoto look really dumb for giving up on him after a 1.81 ERA in 2016. Gohara opened the season with seven wonderful starts in Florida before a promotion up the ladder to Mississippi, where he was excellent with a 2.60 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 52 innings. His first start in Triple-A went poorly, but the fact that the Braves have taken a pitcher who Dipoto couldn't get rid of quick enough and now have him on the road to the major leagues is remarkable. Gohara struggled last week against Syracuse, but he'll have a month-plus to turn the corner once again and put his name on the shortlist for a spot on next year's roster.

Promoted from Mississippi: Phil Pfeifer...On one hand, Pfeifer was rolling with Mississippi. 68 strikeouts in 44.1 innings? Yes, please. The problem comes down to the walks - 33 of them. His ability to generate strikeouts helped to mask that, but that's still too many walks. It's worth mentioning that left-handed batters in the Southern League won't miss Pfeifer. They hit just .196 with two doubles against him. Pfeifer was a third rounder in 2015 who came over in last June's Bud Norris/Dian Toscano exchange. The talent is there for the former Vanderbilt Commodore. If the Braves can squeeze out just a bit more control out of him, Pfeifer could be part of a reworked bullpen for the Braves over the next year.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kade Scivicque (#43)...Scivicque hasn't exactly followed up a productive Arizona Fall League run with some impressive offensive numbers this season. At the time of his promotion, he was hitting .269/.319/.363 - basically, what he did in the 170 or so games he played in the minors before this season. Long-term, Scivicque maxes out as a backup whose career will be made or broken by his receiving skills behind the plate. They're not great, by the way, but reports suggest he has improved. More improvement might help him get to the majors.

Rehab: Jason Motte...I feel like Motte is pushing 40, but he only turned 35 a month ago. Motte started his rehab assignment this week with a good inning with Rome before joining with Gwinnett to complete his rehab. While Motte hasn't been bad this year (3.76 ERA), his peripherals stink (5.43 FIP/4.99 xFIP) and at this point, the Braves might be better off moving on from Motte rather than demote a younger arm to bring him back.

Recalled and Optioned from Atlanta: Aaron Blair...The problem with Aaron Blair is the results haven't really matched the expectations for three years now. The belief was that Blair had good stuff, a few plus-plus pitches, and would be a middle-of-the-rotation workhorse. He might be a workhorse, but one you don't want to ride for very long. It's bad enough that he stunk in a 15-start run with the Braves last year. This year, with Gwinnett, he's simply been pretty forgetful with a 4.86 ERA/4.73 FIP/5.02 xFIP. His one start in the majors last week was a train wreck. Blair seems maxed out as a Quad-A starter/major league spot starter. He's just 25, but it's hard to foresee much potential here.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Optioned from Atlanta: Dansby Swanson...We can talk until we're blue in the face about the way the Braves handled this and whether or not Swanson should be in the minors, but once Brian Snitker started to use Johan Camargo as his regular shortstop, it was only appropriate to move Swanson to Gwinnett to get him plenty of playing time. That part, I'm happy about. Over the last few weeks, it appeared the struggles were finally getting to him. I'm not a body language expert, but Swanson looked miserable and seemed on a downward trend. While adversity can be good for young players, an OPS of .599 is a bit much to put on a guy in hopes that it builds character. Swanson heads to Triple-A, where he'll form a star-studded middle of the defense with Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. He'll be back.

Optioned from Atlanta: Matt Wisler...Unfortunately, the Braves are not yet willing to try out the single-inning Wisler version I, and many others, have suggested. Soon after his demotion, he took the ball and had a Wisleresque start against Syracuse. He gave up four runs, walked a batter, and was dinged for eleven hits, but stuck around long enough to get the win.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Alex Jackson (#11)...Much like Austin Riley's promotion a few weeks ago, I didn't quite understand his one. Jackson got off to a great start, but since returning from a month on the DL on June 19, Jackson slashed .231/.296/.394 for Florida with 29 strikeouts in 115 PA. But with Brett Cumberland now in Florida and Scivicque heading up to Gwinnett, there was more time available at catcher in Mississippi. Jackson's 0-for-8 so far since the promotion with four strikeouts, but also four walks. On the year, he's slashing .264/.333/.487 with some iffy numbers behind the plate.

Promoted from Rome to Florida and promoted again: Andres Santiago...Every week, it seems Santiago is on the move. He's appeared for all four Braves' minor league teams above rookie ball and basically goes where there might be a need. Right now, that's the Mississippi rotation.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Promoted from Florida: Touki Toussaint (#14)...Recently, I wrote about how Toussaint was turning the corner. The next start after the article, Toussaint struck out eight over five innings to lower his ERA in the Florida State League to 5.04. It would have gone even lower, but the Braves saw his incredible success of late and rewarded the young right-hander with his first promotion above A-ball. A few days later, he threw a double-header-shortened complete game against Mobile in his debut. It was in a losing effort as two unearned runs followed an Austin Riley error, but it was still a big game for Touki, who's in the midst of a resurgence up the prospect rankings. For the first time since the Braves acquired him, he fell outside my Top 10 in the midseason ranks. Something tells me that will change by the end-of-the-season.

Promoted to Gwinnett, Demoted to Mississippi: Junior Rincon...In just one month, Rincon has spent time with three Braves' teams, though he has yet to play for Gwinnett. Amazingly, despite plenty of movement, he's only pitched four times. He got into his first game in a week yesterday for Mississippi and threw three scoreless innings out of the Mississippi bullpen with four K's in the second game of a double header. Like Santiago, he's just an arm.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Joseph Odom...Briefly, Odom looked like he would get a shot to play regularly in Gwinnett, but he was exchanged for Scivicque after Odom started three games for the G-Braves. He heads back to Mississippi, where his bat has been on fire when he's been healthy enough to play. Through eight games and 22 AB, Odom is hitting a cool .500 with two doubles. Odom's not one of the best catching prospects in the organization, but he's also not a guy to ignore after slashing .278/.327/.431 between Carolina and Mississippi last year.

Florida
Promoted from Danville: Raymar Navarro...At 26 years-old, Navarro was way too old to be pitching for Danville. The Cuban-born right-hander wasn't great with the D-Braves, though. Nor was he that noteworthy in a six-game run with Rome to open the season. Nor is a promotion to High-A all that impressive considering the 67 innings he threw for Carolina last year. But the Braves need to see something out of Navarro and maybe a new challenge will help. His first two games since joining the Fire Frogs haven't been terrible, nor good.

Promoted from Florida to Gwinnett and Demoted: Kevin Matthews...The former Rangers first-rounder was surprisingly promoted to Gwinnett last week, but it was merely for a spot start. That's a bit surprising on its own because of the five games he had appeared in with Rome, all had been out of the pen. Still, Matthews tossed four competent innings in a losing effort for Gwinnett before being demoted to Florida, which is also a promotion over returning to Rome. For a guy who never appeared in High-A ball or better with Texas, it's notable that he's done both for Atlanta in such a short time. His first game in Florida was miserable, though. He was charged with a half-dozen runs in one inning. He'll try to get back on the positive side of things this week.

Activated: Chase Johnson-Mullins...Another reliever in the long-line of small college draftees the Braves have hoarded over the years, CJM is essentially repeating High-A and showing a bit of progression in the process (K% up 3%, BB% down 4%). CJM's a guy who is very difficult to elevate the ball against, but that can be a problem in the minors with less-than-pristine infield surfaces and defensive alignments that sometimes are detrimental to pitchers. Nevertheless, the left-hander has decent control with some swing-and-miss stuff and could be another guy to keep in mind as the Braves try to develop a power bullpen.

Demoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...I'll be honest. Getting kind of tired of writing about Gaylor. The dude is on the move every week and is only in Florida because that's where there is a roster spot. Seriously, if there were no spots at any other team, I fully expect him to head to the Dominican Republic. He's an organizational guy who plays pretty decent outfield defense and gets on base at an okay clip. Moving on.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Demoted from Mississippi: Sal Giardina...Maybe it's his name or his 80-grade mustache, but I keep thinking Giardina is 43 years-old, which would age him up about 20 years. Like Gaylor, Giardina goes where there is an available spot on the roster. With Jackson heading up to Mississippi with Odom, there was no available time in Double-A so he heads to Florida. At this point, the Fire Frogs are becoming the home of misfit toys.

Rome:
Promoted from Danville: Leudys Baez...The potential has always been there for Baez, who flashes an all-around game that should make him a fixture in prospect rankings. The ball has been known to jump off his bat and while not particularly fast, he's quick and has good instincts. He's also a switch-hitter, which isn't surprising since the Braves are stockpiling switch-hitters. The problem for Baez has been taking this great collection of gifted skills and turning them into results. Over the last two years, he has been hapless in Rome - so much so that he failed to make the Rome roster coming out of spring training and returned to Danville. He obliterated the APPY over 25 games to earn another shot at Low-A and went 3 for-4 with two doubles and a triple in his return to the Rome roster. At 21, Baez's time to get going in his career is right now. More games like Monday will help him get there.

Promoted from Danville: Drew Lugbauer (#44)...This wasn't too much of a surprise. Lugbauer - or Slugbauer - had proven that his power was too much for the Appalachian League, homering ten times in 29 games. His average fell to .243 after a 0-for-9 run against Johnson City right before the promotion, but he took plenty of walks and continued to show that his bat won't be the problem when it comes to Lugbauer. It's his position. At Danville, he started nine games at catcher, nine games at third, and five games at first. He's not particularly gifted at any of these positions but seems capable enough to at least play a bit at each. Whether or not he'll have a long-term position - especially behind the plate - is questionable. But the Braves have some time to figure that out. He opened his Low-A career at first base Monday night and, like Baez, was instrumental in Rome's 5-3 win over Augusta with a pair of doubles. The duo joins Isranel Wilson, who also opened the year in Danville before a promotion up the ladder.

Danville

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Promoted from GCL: Jean Carlos Encarnacion...Just 19 years-old, Encarnacion was surging with the GCL Braves to open the year. Signed at the tail-end of the 2015-16 class, Encarnacion didn't open many eyes during a 37-game run in the Dominican Summer League last year, but through 26 games to begin this year, Encarnacion was hitting .350/.374/.563 in Florida. Unsurprisingly, with some time opening up in Danville with Lugbauer joining Rome, Encarnacion was brought north for a new challenge. Encarnacion split time between shortstop and third base last year but has played the corner infield spots this season. He's got the frame and potential power to match such a positional assignment. For me, Encarnacion was one of the guys who just missed my Midseason Top 50. My expectation is that he'll join the list the next time I do it.

Assigned: Huascar Ynoa...I wrote a pretty big scouting report on Ynoa prior to him making his Danville debut and felt he had a good deal of upside. His debut did little to change that thought. He regularly hit 97 mph with a good slurve, along with a great feel for his changeup, in a four-inning start. He gave up three hits and a run, walked two, and struck out six. While people immediately talked down the pickup because of a 5.26 ERA (because that's all that matters), I think the upside Ynoa has and with how well the Braves develop arms, Ynoa could be a heck of a find.

Demoted from Rome: Austin Bush...A fairly intimidating figure in the box, Bush stands 6'6" and 220 pounds. Suffice it to say, he's meant to play first base. The problem is as worrisome as his physical stature might be to opposing pitchers, they didn't have much trouble getting him out in the SALLY. He hit just .216/.292/.333 over 31 games with a pair of homers. Those numbers are even worse when you take away his first five games (an 8-for-19 start with two doubles and a homer). Bush was a 15th rounder of UC-Santa Barbara who bashed 20 homers as a junior. He also struck out a ton - which he did with Rome as well. If you're getting the power numbers, that's not all that concerning. When you're not...it gets ugly. He did skip by rookie level so maybe a more conservative assignment will get him going.

Demoted from Rome: Alan Crowley...A 26th rounder last year, Crowley opened the season with Danville but was quickly needed in Rome. In backup action, he didn't impress much with a 5-for-27 line. He'll be a backup in Danville as well and is position-limited right now. He did hit .327 last year, though oddly only one of his 17 hits went for extra bases and that one EBH was a homer. He didn't hit for any power in junior college either so I imagine it was his glove that interested the Braves. Honestly, there's just not much to write about a guy who seems destined to be a backup catcher in the minors.

GCL
Rehab from Gwinnett: Mauricio Cabrera...It's been a miserable season for Cabrera, but maybe a quick breather on the DL will get him going. Cabrera was originally placed on the DL at the end of spring training after he was diagnosed with a strained right elbow. Expected to miss just a few weeks, he started a rehab assignment with Florida in late April and joined Gwinnett a week later. His control never came to Georgia, though. He'd later be optioned to Gwinnett rather than simply play there on a rehab assignment and overall, Cabrera walked 25 batters and hit four others in 26.1 ING before being placed on the DL a week ago. A potential closer option before the season, Cabrera's control (which looked so much better once he got to the majors) had worsened to the point where he's a danger to the hitters stepping in. Cabrera's right arm has always been worth millions in potential salary, but his inability to spot pitches has kept him a longshot to be an impact major leaguer. We saw him potentially change that last year over 38.1 ING, but until he's able to do it again, don't count on him being an x-factor for the Braves' pen.

Rehab from Mississippi: Matt Withrow (#45)...Withrow got off to a wonderful start with a 2.08 ERA in April. As good as he was in April, he was just as bad in May before landing on the DL. He'll try to get back on track after a run in the GCL on a rehab assignment. His appearance was a two-inning stint with two strikeouts and no baserunners allowed - good start. Withrow finished fifth last year for most strikeouts in the system and just ahead Toussaint while pitching for Carolina. He walked a few too many hitters but flashed a plus-fastball with good sink and a slider that might push him into a bullpen role as he gets closer to the majors.

Demoted from Mississippi: Guillermo Zuniga...We come to an end of our Zuniga saga. Back on July 4, Zuniga was surprisingly promoted to Mississippi after just one start in the GCL. Two days later, he was placed on the DL. Outfield Fly Rule's Chris Jervis rightly figured out why this strange move happened. The Braves ran out of roster space in the GCL to house players on the DL. They had more room with Mississippi so while Zuniga nursed his injury, he was a "member" of the Mississippi roster. Now healthy enough to pitch, the 18-year-old righty returned to the GCL and started last weekend. All this roster manipulation aside, Zuniga is an interesting pitcher who could jump onto some prospect lists over the next couple of years.

DSL
Nothing to report.

Transaction Tuesday: Braves Lose Player to the Air Force

After a big week of promotions to report the last time I did this, the last seven days were more about the weird (lots of player movement for procedural purposes) and the unusual (a player going on military leave) than well-earned promotions - though there were a couple.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 18 to July 24. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
We've already given the full-court press on yesterday's trade. Stephen gave a general recap of the deal and what it means for the Braves while I focused on the prospect acquired in the deal, Huascar Ynoa, with a scouting report.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Activated: Arodys Vizcaino...A right index finger strain didn't keep Vizcaino out of action for long. It's been a weird season for the hard-throwing righthander. A year after turning into a groundball pitcher, he's reverted back to his 2015-self with a groundball rate just south of 40%. He's also allowed five home-runs - nearly half of his career total. That's played a big part in an FIP of 3.89. And no, this isn't a SunTrust Park thing - only one of those homers occurred in Georgia. He got off to a slow start but was dominant from April 27 to July 1. His numbers started to fall again before his trip to the DL. The Braves are hoping he gets going again as it both helps his trade value and gives Brian Snitker more options should the Braves trade Jim Johnson or at least demote him from his current position.

Placed on Bereavement List and Activated: Kurt Suzuki...A day after hitting a big two-run homer in Atlanta's 6-3 win over the Dodgers last Thursday, Suzuki headed to Hawaii for his grandfather's funeral. He was activated Monday. It's been a great season for Suzuki, who recently reached 1 fWAR for just the second time in the last six years. He could garner some trade attention moving forward, but with Anthony Recker dealt yesterday, Atlanta will likely hold onto their backup catcher short of an offer John Coppolella can't say no to.

Promoted: Matt Wisler...Like his other call-ups this year, Wisler's return to the majors will be short. Aaron Blair has been given Jaime Garcia's spot in the rotation. Instead, Wisler is back in the bigs to help out the bullpen. He got that shot in Monday's game and got hammered. At this point, we know what Wisler the Starter looks like and it's not good. We also have seen glimpses into what Wisler the Long Reliever looks like and that's not too attractive of an option either. What about Wisler the One-Inning Reliever? It seems like that's the only stone left unturned here. Consider this: Wisler has mid-90's heat and can touch 97 mph on the gun as a starter. He might be able to consistently hit 97 as a reliever or at least be able to push his velocity that high more often. We also know that throughout his career, he has a slider that is capable of generating whiffs. In fact, it's the only pitch he's been able to get swings-and-misses on. Now, if you were able to take his control, increased velocity, and plus-slider and turn it into a reliever, you might have the makings of a solid option out of the bullpen. At any rate, it's time to try something new with Wisler.

Released: Eric O'Flaherty...Atlanta kept hoping they could get something out of the former star reliever, but ultimately, O'Flaherty just couldn't find his groove anymore. Since returning to Atlanta last year, O'Flaherty had a 4.91 FIP over 47 innings while allowing seven home-runs. During his best three years in Atlanta during his first run as a Brave (2010-12), O'Flaherty gave up seven homers in 175 innings with a 2.98 FIP. O'Flaherty had been on the DL with left rotator cuff tendinitis and there was no word on any time table ahead of him being released. Atlanta could have opted to send him to the 60-day DL to get a roster spot, but instead, ran out the clock on something else. O'Flaherty reached ten years of major league service by the Braves waiting as long as they did to release him. That ensures a full pension from Major League Baseball. A solid move by the Braves as they reward one of their most well-liked pitchers of the last decade.

Gwinnett

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Activated and Promoted from Mississippi: Joseph Odom...After spending most of the first three months of the season on the DL, Odom appeared in four games with Mississippi before landing back on the DL. Once activated, he was promoted to replace Recker. His first few games in Gwinnett haven't been great, but Odom will likely be the guy moving forward for the G-Braves behind the plate as the only other catcher on the roster, David Freitas, is a 28-year-old journeyman hitting .265/.346/.354. Odom has been lost in this new era of a number of interesting catching prospects in the Braves' system, but he did rake last year with Carolina, hitting .292/.349/.500 with 8 HR before a promotion to Mississippi. To be sure, he struggled after arriving in Double-A. Odom is solid backstop behind the plate, though not elite. At the plate, he's progressed each year in OPS from .567 to .654 to .688 to .758. While it's difficult to predict big things, Odom has enough skills that might play well as a backup. For the moment, he might be third on the depth chart at catcher so keep him in mind.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Lane Adams...In his most extended shot at sticking in the majors, Adams has done some things well. He's been an option off the bench with five successful steals, has belted a pinch-hit homer and another pinch-hit double and can play all three outfield slots. The negative is that he's only on-based .267 over 30 PA. To be fair, he's received zero starts so nearly all of his action has come in late inning situations. The returns of Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez, along with Atlanta's insistence to stick with an eight-man bullpen cost Adams his job. Chances are he'll be back again in the majors at some point this season. He's slashed .269/.320/.473 in the minors this year with 18 EBH, including 7 homers, and 15 steals.

Promoted from Mississippi: Enrique Burgos...In a brief return to Double-A, Burgos never appeared as he waited for a spot to open back up in Gwinnett. Burgos has been wonderful since his trade from the Diamondbacks' organization with a 1.15 ERA over 15.2 ING. He has K'd 18 and walked eight as well. Burgos may not be a top relief prospect, but he's done a good job opening some eyes in Gwinnett and might get a chance in the majors with the Braves looking to tinker with their pen to get better results.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Xavier Avery...This is the first of many weird moves that occurred last week in which several players were shuffled down to Florida and back up. A few guys came up from Florida and were quickly shifted out again. It must have been a logistical thing. I just wanted to point this out because you'll see some funny transactions here. In pretty much every one of these moves, the player never appeared during his brief time demoted/promoted. In regards to Avery, he's been a productive player for the Gwinnett Braves this season. He strikes out way too often (104 in 292 PA), but he's also got on base at a big-time clip (.371) and showed good pop (.213 ISO). He's also added 15 steals and if it wasn't for Adams, he'd likely be next-in-line in case a bench spot for an outfielder opened up.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Caleb Dirks...For the first time in his career, Dirks is struggling. Over his last six appearances (sandwiched around a trip to the DL), Dirks has given up eight earned runs and three homers over 8.2 ING. He's K'd 8 in that time frame. Dirks has been remarkably consistent and awesome during most of his four-year career since the Braves took him in the 15th round back in 2014. It'll be interesting to see how he answers adversity for a change.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Evan Phillips...Evan Phillips was a bit of a surprising promotion at the end of May because he was carrying an 8.14 ERA at Mississippi. That was a product of a bad handful of games to open the year. In his final ten games, he had a 2.81 ERA with 18 Ks in 16 ING. Since joining Gwinnett, he's continued to pitch fairly well, though he needs to clean up the walks (12 in 18 ING). Still, he's getting a strikeout an inning and has a 3.00 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A ball. You'll take that anytime. A 17th-round selection back in 2015, Phillips won't turn 23 until this September.

DL: Mauricio Cabrera...The Atlanta Braves' bullpen struggles may have started this year with the inability to get Cabrera going. He was expected to take a prime role in the pen after 38.1 ING in the majors last year with six saves and a 2.82 ERA. Instead, he has been abysmal in Triple-A with nearly a walk-an-inning. His last six outings were especially bad as he walked ten in 5.2 innings. Cabrera had control issues in the minors before but seemed to find it a bit after getting to the majors. It's just flat-out gone now.

DL: Kyle Kubitza...It hasn't been the best season for Mr. Kubitza with a .232/.321/.324 line over 66 games. To be fair, the former prospect has turned it on since June 1, slashing .284/.375/.402. That kind of slash is why many Braves fans thought Kubitza might be a possible piece that could help the Braves' team in 2015 before he was traded to the Angels in the Ricardo Sanchez trade. No word on what sent Kubitza to the DL, but at this point, he's filler at the infield and outfield corner positions.

Mississippi

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Promoted from Florida: Corbin Clouse...I didn't put Clouse in my Top 50 Midseason list, but he was very close. He keeps this up, he'll definitely be in it when we reconvene for an offseason list. Clouse has some ugly walk numbers this season in Florida, but something started to click for him over his final nine games. In 13.1 innings, he walked three and struck out 19 while not allowing a run. In the 21.2 innings before that, he walked 18 and struck out 27 with an ERA of 3.82. The change for Clouse warranted a promotion to Mississippi and he's already tossed four scoreless innings there. When you add last year's success between Danville and Rome, Clouse has a 1.69 ERA over his first 69.1 ING...which I hear is nice. He's also struck out 103 of 287 batters, a rate of 36%. Not too shabby for a 27th rounder out of Davenport University.

Promoted to Gwinnett from Florida and Demoted to Mississippi: Junior Rincon...Since joining the organization earlier this month, Rincon has spent most of his time in Florida but now returns to Mississippi where he threw one game out of the pen a few weeks ago. He also got a few days in Gwinnett but didn't pitch. It would have been his Triple-A debut if he had.

Florida
Promoted to Gwinnett and Demoted Back: Andres Santiago...Santiago gets around. He's played for four minor league teams this year and all of them are in the Braves' system. Most of the season has been spent in Rome where he's thrown 33.2 of his 53.2 innings. At 27, Santiago is an eleven-year veteran who is just trying to keep a dream alive.

Rome
Promoted from GCL: Troy Conyers...A 23rd-round southpaw out of the University of San Diego, Conyers is a big guy at 6'5" and 230 lbs. Slowed in college by Tommy John surgery in 2014, Conyers was switched from starter-to-closer in 2017 and it came together for him in a big way (12.5 K/9, 2.5 BB.9, 1 HR allowed in 46.2 ING). At 23, it was a surprise to see him in the GCL until you remember that the Braves drafted 20,000 left-handers in June and they couldn't all be in Danville. Over eight games in the GCL, Conyers was absolutely dominant. In 14 innings, he struck out 19, walked two, and the only run to score off him was unearned. He needs a challenge and it might as well come in Rome.

Danville
Nothing doing.

GCL
Demoted from Danville: Jeremy Fernandez...Fernandez wasn't getting a lot of playing time in Danville and what playing time he did get resulted in a .174/.240/.196 line over 50 PA. This is the third season of his career and the 20-year-old has yet to show much offensive capability. He's played mostly second base.

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Placed on Military Leave: Adam Groesbeck...The Braves knew this was coming. Groesbeck was a 38th rounder last month out of the Air Force Academy. After graduating, Groesbeck had 60 days of leave and a majority of that was spent with the Braves' organization. The outfielder played in 14 games before leaving the team and struggled mightily with just two hits in 39 PA. He walked seven times and struck out eleven. Groesbeck was among the top hitters in Division I baseball last year with a .410/.460/.649 line over 50 games. According to new requirements put in place last April, Groesbeck must serve two years of active duty before requesting Ready Reserve status (which would last five years). As such, Groesbeck exchanges his baseball uniform for a military one and will begin his primary career as a drone pilot.

DSL
Nothing Reported

Monday Recap: Sweep, Buying/Selling, Early Freeman at 3B Metrics

Welcome to this week's quick Monday Recap. With just three games to review because of the All-Star Break, we won't have to spend too much time on them. Want to point out a few things before we look back at the week that just concluded. We posted our Midseason Top 50 Prospects last week with contributors Ryan Cothran and Stephen Tolbert pitching in. Ryan's been with WOW for awhile now, but Tolbert recently joined. He's already posted two columns - one on the prospect of trading Ozzie Albies and the other on comparing Sean Newcomb and Rich Hill's respective spin rates on their curveballs. Both are worthy of your consideration.

And with that said, it's on with the show.

July 10-13, Idle
All-Star Break

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July 14, 4-3 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta twice gave up single-run leads, but Freddie Freeman put the Braves ahead for good with a two-run single in the 8th. Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a single before Brandon Phillips doubled to set the stage for Freeman's heroics. Freeman also broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth with a deep home run. Atlanta got their other run in the first when Inciarte doubled and came around later in the inning on a Matt Kemp two-out single. R.A. Dickey continued his solid work, throwing six innings and allowing just one on eight hits and two walks. He also struck out four. Sam Freeman allowed a home run to Paul Goldschmidt while Jose Ramirez wasn't helped by a bad thow by Tyler Flowers on a stolen base attempt. His throw went into center field and allowed a runner to reach third. A wild pitch briefly put the D'Backs on top. Jim Johnson worked a perfect ninth with a strikeout of Goldschmidt to end the game.

July 15, 8-5 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
The Braves used 14 hits and two home runs from each of their last two opening day second basemen to score eight runs and win Saturday's night affair. Phillips got the Braves on the board with a game-tying home run in the third, his eighth. He then put the Braves on top in the fifth with a RBI double. The lead was short lived as a pair of runs, charged to Mike Foltynewicz put Arizona ahead in the sixth. The Braves would fight back in the bottom half of the inning. With old friend Randall Delgado on the mound, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis led off the inning with singles. Delgado got the next two, but Dansby Swanson worked a walk. Lane Adams followed with a bases-clearing pinch-hit double. Andrew Chafin replaced Delgado and his first pitch was hit by Ender Inciarte for a RBI single to score Adams and put the Braves up 6-3. Kurt Suzuki picked up a RBI in the 7th and after the Diamondbacks scored twice in the 8th to pull closer, Jace Peterson led off the 8th with a pinch-hit home run that still hasn't landed. Johnson cruised through the ninth for another save. It was an average night for Folty, who struggled with his control over his 5.1 innings.

July 16, 7-1 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta gets to .500 with an efficient offensive attack. They would leave just four runners on base while scoring seven runs. In the third, Matt Kemp bashed a three-run bomb and Matt Adams smacked his 15th later in the frame. That was the game-changing frame for the Braves, who scored in each of the first four innings. Brandon Phillips doubled three times and drove in tow runs while Ender Inciarte singled twice. Jaime Garcia pitched well, allowing just one run in seven innings. He scattered four singles, walked three, and struck out seven. Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris worked perfect frames with Morris striking out a pair. The sweep at home was the Braves' first sweep at SunTrust since the four-game set to open the park against the Padres in mid-April.

This week's Record: 3-0
Season Record: 45-45, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9.5 GB

Minor League Week in Review
Gwinnett: 3-1...40-52, 2nd Place in the North, 9.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-5...6-17 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the Southern, 6 GB
Florida: 2-3...9-13 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the North, 4.5 GB
Rome: 1-4...8-12 (2nd Half), 6th Place in the Southern, 7.5 GB
Danville: 2-4...11-13, 3rd Place in the West, 7 GB
GCL: 3-3...9-9, 2nd Place in Northeast, 1.5 GB
DSL: 1-4...11-24, 7th Place in Northwest, 13 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves stay at home for three more games with the Cubs coming for a visit for two nights games before a matinee on Wednesday. It's the first time the Braves have faced the Cubs this season and they'll return the favor at the end of August by visiting Wrigley. After Wednesday's game, the Braves head on a cross-country trip to visit the Dodgers for four games to finish the week. The first three will be late night games for Braves fans while Sunday's will be a mid-afternoon start at 4:10 EST.

Three Last Things
1) Buying Or Selling?

It's hard not to have this debate. After sweeping Arizona, the Braves have reached .500 for the first time since early April. They are midway through a tough part of their schedule that included games with the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and a second series with Arizona in addition to the one that just completed. They've held their own so far, winning 5-of-9.

The Braves General Manager, John Coppolella, has been attached to Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Justin Verlander, and Michael Fulmer. Atlanta is also said to have an interest in Jurickson Profar. What the Braves ultimately may do may be decided by July 26. At that point, the Braves will have finished a 10-game stretch against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. If they are still at .500 or higher, the Braves might be an aggressive buyer. If they slip, they could sell.

Regardless, Braves fans universally agree about one thing - it feels good to care again.

2) Roster Issues

For the first time in a long time, the Braves might be sending down productive players because of a roster crunch. With Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez likely to return tomorrow, Lane Adams might be sent back to Gwinnett. Adams has been one of the few guys able to come off the bench and get a pinch hit here-and-there for the Braves. His six pinch-hits not only lead the team, but count for a quarter of all of Atlanta's pinch-hits this season. He's also belted a homer and added a double. But with Santana fresh off a five-hit game on a rehab assignment and super utility player Rodriguez ready to contribute, Adams seems pushed out for now. Jace Peterson, who joined Adams and Santana as the only Braves to have a pinch-hit homerun this season on Sunday, will likely head down as well.

Further roster decisions will have to be made in regards to a pitcher. Dan Winkler began his rehab assignment a month ago and is only given 30 days before the Braves have to make a decision. He's struck out nine over as many minor league innings, but also gave up eight runs. His rehab appears either halted, though. He hasn't pitched in ten days.

Something similar happened to Chaz Roe. His rehab assignment was halted after the Braves designated him for assignment. It didn't make much news, but on Thursday, he was outrighted to Gwinnett. I have seen reports that Winkler's rehab received a rare 30-day extension. Over the coming days, we'll see if that was accurate or if Winkler went through a similar fate as Roe. (Edit: According to Mark Bowman, it was accurate as the Braves have extended Winkler's rehab 30 days. H/t to Dan Keetz for this.)

3) Early Defensive Metrics Unkind to FF3B

It takes a long time for defensive metrics to really even out to the point that they tell us anything valuable. Often, we don't want to put too much importance in them without a career baseline to compare numbers to.

So...don't take this seriously.

Freddie Freeman's defensive metrics are HORRIBLE at third base! -89.3 UZR/10! Wow! He's handled ten plays and committed an error. Of the three plays in his zone, he's made two successful plays. In addition, Freeman is 9-of-10 on routine plays according to Inside Edge Fielding. He's 0-for-2 on remote plays (expected rate is between 1 and 10%) To be fair, he hasn't made a remote play at first base since 2014.

Well, what did you expect from a first baseman playing third base anyway? Of course, the Braves have also won a number of those games so they are getting exactly what they hoped for.