Organizational Overview: First Base

Freeman | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

For many of the organizational overviews I do to accompany our prospect rundowns, the current starter or starters at that position may run the gamut between good-to-bad, but there are often two or three really good prospects on the way to supplement them or push them out of the way. First base is the exception as not only is the starter elite, but there are nearly no prospects to speak of. That's not a terrible thing - I mentioned before how many standout first basemen don't start there. But it certainly makes for a relatively sad collection of prospect blurbs like we released on Friday.

I'm changing up the organizational overview slightly. The first section will include where that position projects right now for 2018 in comparison to the league. The second section will look at the near future and the "oh (expletive)!" plan should things go really wrong in 2018. Finally, the third section goes beyond the next couple of years. Some of the information I use comes from recent looks at the roster makeup for next season.

First Base
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21 million)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3 million estimate based on Lonnie Chisenhall's 2017 arbitration settlement)
Minor League Free Agents: Carlos Franco, Joey Meneses, Matt Tuiasosopo
Current Projection: $25.3 million

For the Braves, their hopes and dreams for 2018 include a lot of Freeman playing. Next season will be Year 5 of Freeman's big eight-year extension that runs through 2021. The deal was heavily backloaded, which is pretty common for a player signing prior to his big arbitration paydays. Freeman earned $20.5M this year, the first of five years he'll earn at least that much cash. Freeman has yet to play in a playoff game since signing that extension, which is a terrible waste of some of the slugger's best years. Freeman notably played a little third base this year and didn't suck too awfully at it, which was surprising.

Adams is currently projected for the 2018 roster because to lose him for nothing is difficult to believe. When the dust settled on his 2017, it was a pretty solid - and unspectacular - season. Basically, a microcosm of his career. That said, he provides a big bat against right-hand pitching and could be useful for next year's team as support for Freeman and a potential option in left field. You'll lose value with Adams in left because he's a terrible defender, but you can also say the same about the current projected starter out there.

Jace Peterson and Rio Ruiz, not mentioned here, also played some first base for the Braves last year and both could return next season.

Comparison - 2018

Freeman played in 117 games, roughly forty fewer than the other elite options at first base. Despite that, he nearly matched them as far as production goes. Despite swinging a wet newspaper for much of the second half, Freeman's .280 ISO was only bested by rookies Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo among first basemen. It was the fourth time in five years he posted at least a 4 WAR and only Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt can make convincing arguments that they could be the best first baseman in the game since the beginning of last year.

There is zero reason to believe Freeman, when healthy, won't continue to excel in 2018. He finished last season with the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the best wOBA so he's still improving rather than regressing. Next season will be his Age-28 season so he could be still scratching the surface on what the Best Freeman might look like. That's a scary proposition for the rest of the league right now.

If Adams is brought back, he remains a solid platoon option should Freeman go down, having OPS'd .828 against righties throughout his career. He brings limited value because of his flaws, but when he's on, his bat can launch homers in binges. He's also a tremendous pinch-hitter and I typically don't attach such an adjective to a role that is often difficult to successfully duplicate. Over 155 pinch-hit appearances, Adams is slashing .315/.342/.555 with nine home runs.

You could make the argument that with Adams and a competent platoon option against southpaws, first base would be a strength. But with Freeman, it makes first base an elite strength compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - The Near-Future/"Oh, (Expletive)!" Plan

For the latter, the presence of Adams gives the Braves a big boost. However, the Braves may find his salary, which could approach $5 million, a bit too rich for their blood. If so, the Braves would be in a dicey position depth-wise short of other moves this winter - basically, the same position they were in when Freeman went down after being hit by a pitch by Aaron Loup in 2017. At that point, the Braves signed the zombified version of James Loney, started Jace Peterson at first base, and promoted Carlos Franco from Double-A to Triple-A. None of those moves gave former General Manager John Coppolella any confidence - as they shouldn't have - and he made the deal for Adams.

If the Braves cut bait on Adams, they should definitely be on the lookout for some help here because they lack any real options to immediately call upon. There's Peterson, who...no. Just no. Rio Ruiz was given a late look last month at first base and also played a handful of games at first base this season for Gwinnett. There was some purpose to these moves as the Braves looked to uncover some added value in Ruiz, whose defensive inflexibility and limited offensive profile as a platoon hitter makes it hard to keep him on the roster. He looked like a guy who hasn't played much first base to no one's surprise. He'll likely continue to get some work there this offseason and spring. If Adams is gone, without additional options brought aboard, Ruiz might be Atlanta's best option at first base should Freeman go down.

This is both a potential strength and weakness. Not many teams - especially in the NL - have an option like Matt Adams to call upon. But if he is non-tendered, depth could be a real weakness that will need to be addressed.

Lugbauer | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Comparison - The Future

Here's a brief projection of what 1B might look like next year in the farm system with their rankings in our most recent Top 5 1B in parenthesis...

Gwinnett: Sal Giardina, Minor League Free Agents
Mississippi: Carlos Castro (5), Jonathan Morales
Florida: Drew Lugbauer (1), Kurt Hoekstra, Anthony Concepcion,
Rome: Austin Bush (4), Griffin Benson
Danville: Nicholas Vizcaino

That's not good. Lugbauer is really the only member of this group that would seem like a decent bet to get to the majors and he was an eleventh round draft choice last June. As we talked about on Friday, there's just not a lot else and that includes a pair of players from the Top 5 prospect list, Carlos Franco and Joey Meneses, who I believe are both possible minor league free agents this winter. The Braves could bring back either/both, but that won't help the position much.

That said, with Freeman's youth, first base is simply not a priority. Even if you are still worried about the future, first base could be aided by moving a prospect from another position. Like I pointed out, we saw Rio Ruiz get into some games at first base in the second half of the 2017 season. Another prospect, Braxton Davidson, could be one that gets moved sooner rather than later. When the roster for the fall instructional league was announced in mid-September, Davidson was listed as an infielder despite playing only the outfield after being drafted. Davidson's prospect status has disappeared after an OPS under .700 the last two years at High-A ball, but at just 21-years-old, the Braves aren't going to completely give up on him. He'll have to hit a ton to be a first base prospect, but with little else in the system, it might be a good move.

Austin Riley is another guy who could be switched across the diamond, as our Stephen Tolbert eluded to last week. I'm not there yet with Stephen, but Riley's defense at third base certainly is a work in progress. Others like Brett Cumberland or Alex Jackson could struggle to stay behind the plate, though Jackson seems like a better fit in the outfield.

Again, there's no pressing reason to feel the need to add some big-time talent at first base. Beyond the fact that you can move other players there, Freeman is locked up for another four seasons so when we talk about the future at the position, it's important to remember that the future is already here. In a weird way, despite the lack of any really talented prospects, the future at first base is still a strength. Other teams may have the big first base prospect, but when you have a guy like Freeman who is still pretty young and locked up, you're still looking pretty even without much in the system.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments!

2017-18 Hot Stove Organizational Overviews
Catcher

Where the Braves Sit Right Now

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

We could sit here for some time and keep talking about the surprising dismissal of John Coppolella, in-fighting between the remaining John's (Hart and Schuerholz), the possibility of pending sanctions, and so on. And you can be sure we will address more of that when the information is available. However, like it or not, the 2017-18 Hot Stove is warming up and it's time to start looking at next year's roster.

The Braves used 49 players in 2017 - down from the 60 utilized in both of the last two seasons. Part of that was a little better luck injury-wise, but the big reason the Braves used fewer players was that they were saying the days of random players you forgot were still playing were over. With depth increasing at Triple-A, the Braves were calling on an increasingly younger collection of talent as the season progressed. Of the eleven starters they used, eight were younger than 27. The Braves were looking to the future in many regards to their player usage.

Let's take a gander at what the roster makeup for 2018 looks like right now. This is just for general information as regardless of what happens when Major League Baseball finishes their investigation, the Braves will still be active in the trade market. They'll still sign free agents. The roster will change from what it currently looks like and life will eventually get back to normal.

Speaking of free agents, the weird thing about this team is that they really only have one major league free agent. A lot of the player movement will actually come from non-tenders and trades as the Braves look to open up room on their 40-man roster.

For what it's worth, my arbitration estimates are based on similar arbitration agreements from last winter. We may take a much more robust look at arbitration-eligible players later on, but for now, I used last year's results to help guide me. For players mentioned in the coming attractions, I'm limiting it to guys I project appearing in the majors next year if healthy and productive. Each renewal is given a $545,000 contract for 2018. Some will make more while some will make less due to the nature of split contracts and earning a different salary in the minors.

Starting Pitchers
Signed: Julio Teheran ($8M)
Arbitration: Mike Foltynewicz ($2.25M -Taijuan Walker, First Year, Super 2)
Renewal: Aaron Blair, Luis Gohara, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler
Option: R.A. Dickey ($8M team option, $500K buyout)
Free Agent: None (yay!)
Coming Attractions: Kolby Allard, Tyler Pike, Mike Soroka

There is a lot of depth here, though just as many question marks. Teheran and Foltynewicz both had good stretches during the season, but each struggled for the majority of the year. Gohara and Newcomb have the stuff, but will they consistently throw it for strikes? Is Sims better suited for the bullpen? Are Blair and Wisler done for? And will the Braves bring back Dickey?

I've been struck with how confident people are that the Braves aren't looking at possibly bringing in a big arm. This rotation, as its currently constructed, could be good, but the questions are far too numerous for me to be very bullish on that prospect. As far as Dickey goes, I imagine the Braves decline his option if he's still iffy on returning on 2018 and tell him that they'll be interested in bringing him back if he changes his mind. In the meantime, they'll start to kick the tires on a big move to stabilize the rotation.

Current Projection: $13.475 million

Relief Pitchers
Signed: Jim Johnson ($4.5M)
Arbitration: Rex Brothers ($1.42M - Rex Brothers :), Third Year), Sam Freeman ($908K - Evan Scribner, First Year), Ian Krol ($1.275M - Blake Wood, 2nd Year), Arodys Vizcaino ($2.55M - Jake Diekman, Third Year, Super 2), Daniel Winkler ($850K - Bruce Rondon, First Year)
Renewal: Jacob Lindgren, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, 
Free Agent: Jason Motte
Coming Attractions: Phil Pfeifer, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts, Caleb Dirks

Don't be fooled by so many names (nearly 20) - the bullpen will need some work. For starters, there are at least two non-tenders here with Brothers and Krol - and yes, I used Brothers as an arbitration comp for himself. In addition, many of the names in the renewal department have issues either from injury (Lindgren, Biddle, Rivero) or bad-to-average 2017 numbers (Cabrera, Hursh, Jackson). That leaves Johnson, Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, and Ramirez along with safe arbitration keepers like Freeman and Winkler. While there are some reinforcements mixed in, the Braves will likely want to find a couple of established arms to help out.

Current Projection: $13.713 million

Catchers
Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Coming Attractions: Kade Scivicque and Alex Jackson

Freitas and Sanchez will likely be designated for assignment soon so don't expect them to stick around. Before the Coppy mess, reports were that picking up Flowers' option was as good as done. That is likely still the plan because the value in comparison to the price is so high here. Catcher might be the easiest position to pencil in.

Current Projection: $7.5M

Infield
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21M)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3M - Lonnie Chisenhall, Third Year), Jace Peterson ($885K - Tim Beckham, First Year)
Renewal: Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz
Coming Attractions: Travis Demeritte, Austin Riley, Luis Valenzuela

Three of the four starting spots should be locked up with a number of cheap options for third base to fill out the infield. For what it's worth, I imagine the Braves will go cheap at third base, but there certainly is a chance they could get involved in some of the higher price options. One possible connection could formulate if Dayton Moore takes the Braves job and wants to bring Mike Moustakas with him. The arbitration cases here are both interesting. I wrote the other day that if the market doesn't develop for Adams - and I think there is a good chance it doesn't - I'd rather keep him than lose him for nothing. Peterson's poor play the last two years makes him a non-tender candidate, but a strong finish (.325/.460/.475 over his last 50 PA) may have bought him another year. He'll be out of options, but the Braves may see him as worth the investment. I don't foresee any coming attractions pushing their way on the roster this spring, but all three could appear in Atlanta by late summer next year.

Current Projection: $28.91 million

Outfield
Signed: Matt Kemp ($21.5M), Nick Markakis ($10.5M), Ender Inciarte ($4M)
Arbitration: Danny Santana ($600K, Ehire Adrianza, First Year)
Renewal: Lane Adams, Micah Johnson
Coming Attractions: Ronald Acuna, Dustin Peterson

The Braves will try to trade one of the corner outfielders this winter to open a spot for Acuna, which they may find easier said than done. As for Santana, he seems a goner due to his poor play after joining the Braves. This position isn't quite as easy to forecast as catcher, but we know there is probably going to be a mix of Inciarte, Acuna, and a veteran to be named later (likely Kemp). Micah Johnson rarely got a chance to play in Atlanta after being designated for assignment on twitter several weeks ago. Lane Adams, on the other hand, played his way into the mix to begin 2018.

Current Projection: $37.09 million

Other consideration: $2.75 million from the Padres

Roster Projection: $97.938 million

Note that this roster projection is just an estimate based both on salary arbitration figures that could be wrong and renewals that may or may not happen. Chances are that the player payroll projection right now is a bit lower than I have it, but I believe my total is a nice jumping off point.

So, let's try to put that nearly $98 million into perspective. Since 2014, the Braves have had opening day payrolls of $112M, $97M, $87M, and $123M. The last total was also last season when the Braves opened SunTrust Park. That gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that the Braves have a low-end player payroll cap of $120 million with a higher-end estimate of $130M. I'll take the difference and say that next year's cap is likely around $125 million.

Recall that the nearly $98 million total I gave you doesn't include Dickey's option and does include a number of non-tenders. The Braves may elect to go away from what I am predicting. They may also choose to non-tender someone like Matt Adams. The other way they could cut salary here is via trades - especially involving a corner outfielder. The best-case scenario involves dealing Kemp. Now, just dealing the outfielder won't add $21.5 million to the potential spending money for the Braves as they would almost certainly have to include money to facilitate a deal. But say they have to include $20M in two equal installments over the next two seasons - that's still $10M less on 2018's payroll. That's a really good reliever or two pretty good relievers.

Obviously, it's difficult to look at the future offseason because of the front office turmoil and it's unlikely to be resolved very soon. That said, there's still a team to build for 2018 and by my count, the Braves are looking at between $20 million and $30 million of spending room before the Hot Stove is actually, ya know, hot. That may not seem like a lot - the Braves spent nearly $26 million on Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Sean Rodriguez for 2017 (minus whatever the Pirates paid for Rodriguez) - but if spent much more wisely, the investment could bring big-time dividends for the Braves as they look to turn the page.

Baseball's Weirdest Rule 5 Situation

What better way to explain service time than with the hottest prospect to come through the Braves system since Jason Heyward? For that matter, what better way to explain arbitration than with the strangest case that we've seen over the last number of years?

In professional baseball, you earn two different kinds of "time." The one that everyone gets from a rookie-league ballplayer to R.A. Dickey relates to how long you have been a professional. This is especially important when it comes to things like the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency. For instance, after seven seasons in the minors, you can become a minor league free agent. Oddly, we call them "six-year minor league free agents" despite needing seven years. Baseball is strange.

The other kind of time a player earns - which is far more important to this article - is service time. This refers to each day spent in the major leagues. Under the new CBA, there are 187 days to fit in a 162-game schedule. However, you are still credited with a day of service time during those off days. In fact, a full season is referred to as 172 days in the major leagues - which did not change in the CBA despite the added days to the MLB calendar year. Think of this way - as long as a player didn't use an option that season (i.e. 20 days in the minors), he likely earned a year of service time if he was with the team in April.

You receive service time while on the active roster, the disabled list, the restricted (or suspended) list, and...well...any list. As long as you haven't been optioned to the minors, your service time is climbing. Hence why some teams have tried to play the system against itself. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs waited exactly 13 days to call up Kris Bryant. Under the previous CBA, there were 184 days in a calendar season. As Bryant was not on the 40-man roster to begin the season, by pushing his debut off nearly two weeks, the 2015 Rookie of the Year received 171 days of service time in 2015. That's a day short of a full season. Chicago said all the right things about Bryant needing to work on some parts of his game, but the decision was made with the 2021 season in mind. Had the Cubs opened the season with Bryant on the major league roster, he would have become a free agent after 2020 as players with six years of service time in the majors at the end of any given season can become free agents should they not be signed beyond that season. Believing it was more beneficial to them to keep him in the minors, they did just that.

Should the Braves follow suit with Ronald Acuna? There is a lot of talk about bringing him up in September and why not? Over three stops from High-A ball to Triple-A, Acuna has hit .320/.374/.539 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 20 homers, and 37 steals. His numbers have improved at each stop and despite being about eight years younger than the International League, Acuna has an OPS of 1.021 with Gwinnett over 34 games. He's not only the top prospect in the Braves' system but has a solid claim to the best prospect in baseball and he's just 19 years-old.

Bringing him up now would sacrifice a potential extra year of team control. There are other concerns, but provided Acuna stays in the majors, he would reach free agency after 2023. If the Braves waited until sometime in late April of next season to bring Acuna up, they would follow the Bryant route and gain an extra year of team control while merely sacrificing a few weeks of the 2018 season with their top prospect in Triple-A. The Braves have historically not concerned themselves with that, though. I mentioned Heyward and he opened his rookie season in the starting lineup on opening day. By that September, Freddie Freeman joined the team for a cup of coffee. Last August, Dansby Swanson was surprisingly brought to the majors, which started his clock early. In fact, the last time I remember the Braves really concerning themselves with service time came in 2009.

Tommy Hanson was absolutely dominant with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi in 2008 as a 21-year-old. He finished the season by crushing the Arizona Fall League with a 0.63 ERA over 28.2 innings and 49 strikeouts. Over 14.2 innings the following spring, Hanson had a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. But it was Jo-Jo Reyes who was named the fifth starter. Predictably, he failed and in mid-May, the Braves made a change. Hanson had a 1.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 47.2 ING over his first eight starts, but the Braves passed on bringing him up from Gwinnett. They instead called on Kris Medlen, who had been nearly as excellent but wasn't considered a top prospect. Medlen would get three starts until June 7, when the Braves finally brought up Hanson.

All of this was done for one reason - arbitration. Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson as the fifth starter, not only would he have gotten to free agency a season quicker, he would have gotten paid a lot quicker as well. Players become arbitration-eligible after three seasons on a MLB roster. The Braves passed and continued to pass even after gaining the extra year of team control. That was done to get him past the expected date for Super 2 arbitration-eligible players. Super 2 refers to players with two years of service time plus a lot more. Basically, you group all of the players with more than two years of service time, but less than three years in a given season. You take the top 22% of that list and it gives you a threshold. Anyone above that threshold reaches arbitration early. That threshold differs, but it typically lands somewhere in the 2 years and 120-to-150 days area. Remember Bryant from earlier? Despite the fact that the Cubs bought an extra year before free agency, he will still reach salary arbitration this year. And the three years after it. Hence why Super 2 guys can get really expensive. Since arbitration-eligible players rarely fail to receive a nice bump in pay, it gets pretty costly the third time around even for just good players. Add a fourth year and players often are getting plenty of bank. One such player for the Braves this offseason will be Mike Foltynewicz, who will likely have 2 years and 163 days of service time. While the Super 2 cutoff hasn't been decided for 2017, it's unlikely to be higher than 163 days.

The entire reason I bring up service time and arbitration today is related to Dan Winkler. Back in December of 2014, the Braves selected Winkler in the Rule 5 draft. They knew he would miss of the next season after having Tommy John surgery. When a Rule 5 player is injured and misses time the next season, they still have to log at least 90 days on the active roster to fulfill their Rule 5 eligibility. If they fail to reach 90 days in their first season as a Rule 5 guy, they must finish off the remaining time the next season before being eligible to be optioned to the minors. In Winkler's case, as we know, it gets complicated.

Winkler was activated off the DL in 2015 on September 10. Between that day and the end of the season, he logged 24 days on the active roster. The following season, he was on the active roster for eight days before fracturing his elbow. In two seasons, he had 32 days of service time - or nearly two months short of what he would need to satisfy the Rule 5 requirement of 90 days.

The right-hander is currently on his second rehab assignment this season, which has required approval because pitchers only receive 30 days on rehab assignments. Winkler's most recent rehab assignment began 12 days ago. If he has been granted a second rehab assignment of 30 days, the Braves would be able to keep him in the minors until September 1 without having to make a move with the current roster. The season runs through October 1, which would get Winkler to 31 days of active roster time for this season and 55 overall. That leaves an additional 35 days of active roster time he would need to reach in 2018 to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements.

But...he'll also be arbitration-eligible. Yep, even though Winkler has thrown four innings in the majors, he'd be eligible for arbitration even if he went back on the DL for the rest of the year. Earlier, I said players get credit for service time while on the DL. Even though Winkler has pitched 13 times this season in the minors, it's all came under rehab assignments, which means he's still on the major league DL. That would mean Winkler would reach 172 days of service time this season on or about September 15, which would give him three years of service time in the major leagues.

But why stop this extra-strength convoluted exercise now? Let's go over the Braves' options.

I don't remember a case even close to this so this is my best-educated guess.

The Braves could non-tender Winkler, but as far as I know it, non-tender players become official in early December. That might be longer than the Braves would like to go with Winkler taking up space on their roster if they already plan on getting rid of him.

Atlanta could outright Winkler to the minors, but there are a few hang-ups there as well. One, to get him off the 40-man roster, they would need to waive him, offer him to the rest of the league, and, provided he passed through waivers, offer him back to the Rockies. If the other 29 teams passed, the Braves could attempt to outright him to the minors, but as an arbitration-eligible player, Winkler would have the right to elect free agency. As a free agent, the Braves could still try to sign him as a minor league free agent if they so wanted. For that matter, they could simplify the process and release Winkler and then sign him. If he accepted an assignment to the minors after being outrighted or signed as a minor league free agent and either came before the Rule 5 draft, he'd actually be eligible in the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

The Braves could also elect to offer arbitration. After all, how much could Winkler ask for and what could his agent argue? That he's been a good patient? For his part, Winkler has looked much sharper since beginning another rehab stint with Gwinnett and was very impressive to open last season. As he is unlikely to receive significantly more than the major league minimum through arbitration, he still could be a good bet to receive an arbitration tender.

Fortunately, few cases are crazier than Winkler and most are much simpler. Joining Winkler and Foltynewicz among this year's arbitration-eligible players for the first time will be Sam Freeman, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson. Another player, Jose Ramirez, seems like a good bet to also reach Super 2 status. Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, Arodys Vizcaino, and Matt Adams will also be arbitration-eligible. Much of this group seems likely to receive a non-tender - including Winkler. Should that happen, the next team won't even have to worry about Rule 5 eligibility with Winkler. That should keep the complications down to a minimal.

Sean Rodriguez Trade A Precursor to More?

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

It's been a busy afternoon for the Atlanta Braves. Shortly after the surprising announcement that they had promoted Max Fried to the Show, the team announced that they had dealt utility man Sean Rodriguez to the Pirates in exchange for minor leaguer Connor Joe. Jace Peterson returns from Gwinnett to replace Rodriguez.

Rodriguez signed on Thanksgiving last fall to the tune of $11.5 million over two seasons. At the time, the Braves loved what Rodriguez provided for them. He could play everywhere and gave the Braves a bridge at two positions - second and third - where they were waiting on prospects to develop. He also gave them an option against left-hand pitching, which the Braves needed with Peterson penciled in at second base.

But things changed in a hurry. Before spring training, Rodriguez was involved in a horrific car wreck that sent his family to the hospital. While everyone would be okay enough to head home in a few days, Rodriguez would need shoulder surgery. In response, the Braves acquired Brandon Phillips to be their everyday second baseman. Initial fears were that Rodriguez might miss the entire season, but the tireless worker returned to play in his first rehab game on July 1. After a few weeks, he made his return to the majors on July 17. Over 15 games and 47 PA, Rodriguez had done little at the plate except hit a pair of pinch-hit home runs.

Rodriguez seemed to fit less into the July and August version of the Braves than he had with the proposed 25-man roster in November and December. The Braves had added Matt Adams and Danny Santana to the team while Johan Camargo had emerged to become a significant member of the Braves moving forward. The recent call-up of Ozzie Albies only compounded the problem of finding Rodriguez at-bats - even with Matt Kemp on the mend.

Who the Braves received in the deal isn't all that important. But...Connor Joe was the 39th overall selection in the 2014 draft. He was considered a bit of a reach at the time as a borderline Top 100 prospect. Despite being primarily a 1B/RF in college, the Pirates decided to focus Joe on catching - something he was more of a project at. He quickly was hurt and didn't play the rest of the summer. Once healthy, the Pirates scrapped that idea and sent him to first base, then third base, and then the corner outfield slots. He's only made a cameo at 3B this season as he's shifted between 1B and the corner OF positions more.

Joe wasn't drafted for his glove, though. Unfortunately, hitting professional pitching is a bit tougher than hitting West Coast Conference pitching. Over parts of three seasons, Joe has slashed .257/.352/.361 while climbing from A-ball to Double-A. He doesn't strike out much and is lauded for his professionalism, but he's not much of a prospect right now.

What the Braves received in the deal is much more important.

First, they received some financial flexibility this season and next. Similar to how the Braves traded away Jaime Garcia for a project rather than pay down salary to - in essence - buy a prospect, the Braves are making more of a salary dump. Rodriguez was owed roughly $2M this year and $5M next year. That's cleared with this deal. There is also the subject of the $1.5M signing bonus. I don't have any particulars related to that, but typically, signing bonuses are spread evenly over a contract. The Braves have probably paid half of the signing bonus already and might even pay the other half. Ignoring that, they saved $7M or so.

Second, the Braves cleared another 40-man roster spot. I mentioned how tight things could become on the 40-man roster a few days ago when addressing the Ronald Acuna situation. With this trade, Rodriguez's spot is cleared. For more on players who might need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, here's a list. Joe, by the way, will be eligible.

Third, this deal naturally leads to the possibility that more is on the way. By more, I mean both more trades of veterans through the waiver trade process and more in the sense that something bigger might happen. While adding a well-regarded established player at this point seems unlikely - Chris Archer isn't going through waivers, people - the Braves could set themselves up to add another prospect. As long as a prospect is not on the 40-man roster, they do not have to pass through waivers.

How might such a scenario play out? Say a Contending Team is trying to add a big piece to their roster. That might come from the Braves, but it doesn't have to. Say the Contending Team needs to clear salary to add the player they want. The Braves, who have shaved off $6M or $7M or so in salary, could absorb a significant contract while also getting a good prospect. In some respects, that's similar to the Touki Toussaint trade.

Either way, the Braves felt that paying Rodriguez $5M in 2018 was a bit too much. It's unfortunate because of everything Rodriguez went through - the car wreck, the quick rehab, the early struggles. Rodriguez came to Atlanta to be a difference maker for a young team on the rise. Now, he heads back to Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Atlanta is primed to make another big August move or two as they look to build toward contention in 2018.

Making Sense of Yesterday's Roster & Lineup Decisions

G-Braves Media

It was already going to be a big day as far as major league debuts go, but the surprising afternoon news of another new addition to the list of players to play in the bigs was a bit confusing at first. The decision to bring Ozzie Albies to the major leagues yesterday was given some context as the day went on.

Albies WAS NOT brought to the majors for an injury. He WAS NOT brought to the majors for to spend some time around the team. He WAS NOT even brought to the majors because the Braves needed depth. He WAS brought in as Brandon Phillips' replacement at second base. Quite simply, the Braves decided to bring Albies up to be the difference maker we believe he can be.

But that wasn't the only decision the Braves made yesterday. Let's look at each decision and what they mean for the Braves over the next couple of months.

The big news of the day was originally going to be Lucas Sims Day. One of the last holdovers from the Frank Wren regime, Sims was essentially handed Jaime Garcia's spot in the rotation after a brief reminder that Aaron Blair is unlikely to be the guy. Unless "the guy" is defined to mean "remember the guy who also came over with Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte?"

Sims went six innings while allowing six hits, including a homer, and three runs. He walked nobody and struck out three. He also got a pickoff and might have had a better night had Tyler Flowers not air-mailed a throw to third or had Danny Santana not gone all Roger Dorn on a hard grounder. Even with that in mind, it was the kind of game Braves fans have been clamoring for from the bounty of young starters the team has loaded up on for the last few years.

Regardless of what the future may hold for the young righty, the overall impression of Sims being in the majors is a good one. The right-handed fireballer had taken a big step forward this year and earned his right to join Sean Newcomb in the rotation. Atlanta needs to figure out what they have in these guys at some point and with the Braves effectively admitting the season is over, it's time to look toward 2018. Guys like Sims, Newcomb, and Albies will hopefully all be in the mix for that team.

And speaking of Albies, he went hitless in his debut, though he did walk in three trips to the plate. Surprisingly, before last night, the only two Braves to make their big league debut this season for a team very much in a youth movement were Johan Camargo and Newcomb. That total was doubled last night and the smart money suggests others are on their way.

The choice of Albies - at this moment - was a bit of a head scratcher, but let's put this into perspective. The Braves did not deal Brandon Phillips at the trading deadline. That's not to say they won't trade him this month as his contract will certainly pass through waivers, but as of right now, Phillips remains a Brave. That speaks to a shallow market for sure, but could it speak to something else? Could the Braves have had a deal on the table for Phillips that would send him elsewhere only for the second baseman to use his partial no-trade clause to block it?

The most likely answer is the one that Brian Snitker provided - "We got Brandon and he’s been really, really good. But it’s time to see the kid.”

What does this mean for Phillips moving forward? Well, he'll be given a chance to play third base should he choose to do so, but the bigger impression is this - his time with the Braves is limited. Atlanta could go with Phillips at second and Albies at shortstop while shifting Camargo to third (more on that in a sec), but that doesn't seem something they are currently interested in. Right now, it's Albies at second and that's going to be a regular thing.

Which is good. Like Swanson before him, if Albies is in the majors, he should be in the lineup. For now, it looks like he'll share the middle of the diamond with Camargo. In an almost funny way, the Braves have never kept Albies and Swanson together for very long. Despite being the expected double play combo for the next decade, the duo hasn't spent a lot of time together outside of a month-and-a-half last season in Mississippi before Swanson was called up to the majors.

As I said, for the moment, Camargo is at shortstop, but it doesn't seem likely that he'll be joined by Freddie Freeman on the left side of the infield. Instead, Freeman will be shifted to first base - which is weird simply because Freeman actually hasn't been that bad at third base. Instead of Freeman at third, it looks like Sean Rodriguez and Danny Santana will share the position for the time being. When rosters expand, we'll probably see more lineups with Rio Ruiz returning and Swanson likely pushing Camargo to third base more.

Where does that leave Matt Adams? In left field - at least until Matt Kemp returns. He got the start last night but left the game after just five innings due to dizziness. What that means to the future of Adams playing left field is unknown. What is very confusing about this move is that Freeman is a better third baseman than Adams is a left fielder, yet the Braves went in this direction. Some have suggested that Adams playing left field is better for his trade value. I don't know how to respond to that without laughing.

Whatever the motivation for benching Phillips and sending Adams to left might be - and I'm betting it's simply that they didn't find any real takers at the deadline - the Braves seem content with their decisions from last night provided Adams doesn't suffer any more dizziness issues. So, that leaves us with Sims and Albies taking up new important roles with the team, potentially the Matt Adams Plays Left Field Experience and a mix of Rodriguez and Santana at third base. Defensively, this is not ideal and this is was not a very good defense to begin with.

For Braves fans, as confusing as the last 24 hours have been, one thing is for certain - having Albies and Sims begin another youth movement makes the Braves more fun and exciting to watch. Considering they are 3-12 since getting to .500, that's at least something.

The Freeman-To-Third 120 Inning Checkup

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

I hated the idea of moving an elite first baseman to third base. It's difficult enough to play third base, but to chance your franchise cornerstone at a position he seemed unlikely to play at a decent rate? Why in the world would you do something like that? Just because he suggested it? Who's running the team?

And yes, I put a few of these arguments on this blog. I compared the hypothetical third-base-playing Freeman to Johan Camargo, which was unfair because Camargo is a very good third baseman (better than he is a shortstop, I'd wager). I compared the idea of Freeman playing third to Miguel Cabrera playing the position for the Tigers and how poorly Cabrera played it. My overall point was, "Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season?"

Boy, that looks like a typical blogger's overreaction. To this point, Freeman looks quite capable of playing the hot corner and maybe even staying there. Let me give you some numbers. Of major league third baseman with 120 innings at the position this year...

Freeman ranks tied for 12th in DRS with some pretty good defensive players in Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado. He ranks 13th in rPM. He ranks 10th in RZR.

But short sample size...

Freeman is now 24th in UZR/150 and climbing. He could be in the top 20 by mid-August and even higher by season's end.

But Tommy, it's just 120 innings...

And did you see some of the plays he's been making? The double play he started the other day? Catching this liner? The guy's a natural.



But...

Okay, I do hear you. It's an exceedingly short sample size. There are 54 players who have played 120+ innings at third base this year and defensive metrics, in general, aren't valuable until we have a couple of years in the tank to compare-and-contrast with. It's not that I don't get that and his numbers could regress to the point that Freeman isn't a better-than-average third baseman. Or maybe not even an average third baseman. Regardless, we might know a few things.

He's not an embarrassment at the position - something many of us (myself included) feared he'd be. He might not even lose overall value at the position. In fact, because third base is a more difficult position to play, he might see his value increased. That's a pretty difficult thing to do when you're an elite superstar at another position, but league-average defense at a tougher-to-play position is a more valuable asset. Finally, the Braves could head into next year with Freeman penciled in at third base and not feel like it is a huge problem.

None of that should be construed as believing Freeman shouldn't be moved back to first base. I do feel the Braves would be better off with that because, in a perfect world, the Braves have Dansby Swanson back and hitting at shortstop with Camargo slotting over to third base for the time being. But while Freeman isn't Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, or Jedd Gyorko at the position, to this point, he's also not Maikel Franco or Jake Lamb. For that matter, he's also not Chris Johnson or Adonis Garcia. He won't win a Gold Glove, but he seems capable enough of not hurting the team. Isn't that all the Braves were hoping for in the first place?

Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

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Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Jim Johnson's High-Leverage Problems

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

On Sunday, Jim Johnson entered to pitch the tenth inning with the scored tied at 4-4. The Atlanta Braves had just made one of the most improbable comebacks of the season. Kenley Jansen, tasked with preserving a 4-1 lead in the ninth, ultimately gave up a three-run bomb to Matt Adams. It was the first blown save of the year for the All-Star.

After Arodys Vizcaino pitched the bottom of the ninth and the Braves failed to pull ahead in the top of the tenth, it was Johnson's turn. First, kudos to Brian Snitker for not waiting for the lead on the road to bring in Johnson. Second, it went about as poorly as possible. Johnson faced five batters and retired just one. The fifth Dodger he faced laced a single up the middle to win the game. The Braves, who got to .500 last Sunday, lost five-of-the-next seven games to fall back to three games under .500.

Quickly, people called for Johnson's head and it's understandable. He's blown two saves this month and seven overall. While Sunday was just the second game this year in which he was saddled with a loss, it seems like it wasn't for a lack of trying. Curiously, the Braves are just 3-4 in those blown saves - but each of those wins was made harder by Johnson than they needed to be.

All the while, Johnson's full-season numbers are tremendous. Entering Sunday, he ranked 15th among relievers in fWAR with a 1.2. His 28.7% strikeout rate is nearly 11% above his career norm and the best of his career. His walk rate is a skosh higher than his career rate, but still very solid at 8.4%. His ground-ball rate is a career-worst 50.5%, but he's also inducing a career-high 12.9% of infield pop-ups and a career-high 32.1% softly-hit ball rate.

Johnson's FIP of 2.53 (xFIP of 3.15) along with his 1.2 fWAR could be attacked. FIP's main criticism is that it's overvalues homeruns for pitchers - especially for relievers who have a shorter sample size. Vizcaino has similar K% and BB% to Johnson, but his FIP is 3.89 largely as a result of an unusual higher number of homeruns allowed by Vizcaino this season. That's a fair criticism. WAR's usage of FIP also compounds the potential problem here as they use a more advanced formula of FIP when they calculate WAR. They add in infield fly-balls - something I just mentioned Johnson is inducing a career high number of - and count them as strikeouts. These are fair criticisms, but FIP - and by extension WAR - remain useful in this discussion as they remain two of the widely and most accepted "advanced" metrics currently in use and while we can knock them for overvaluing what Johnson does well (limit homeruns, get a great number of popups), they also value what great relievers do well (get K's, have control, so on).

Yesterday, I compared Johnson to Chris Reitsma, who endured a great deal of Braves fan hate between 2004-06. Yet, he ranked 55th among relievers in fWAR for those three years. That's not great, but it's not that terrible either. And that's where this comparison is made. When you look at the numbers, you expect to see horrid stats to match the perception of the player who keeps driving you to drink. On the contrary, the numbers suggest a higher level of competency than you might be willing to give the player.

What gives? Are the stats wrong? Have they forsaken us? Is there truly a closer mentality that Johnson, like Reitsma before him, lack?

To the last question, possibly. Jonah Keri, then of Grantland.com, looked at the different theories related to the idea of a "closer mentality" and defined roles helping players to perform better. It's impossible, though, to prove one has the mentality to close games for all of the obvious reasons. You don't know a player has the mental capability to close a game until he closes games. In that, Johnson should have the the closer mentality. He's saved 176 games during his career - including back-to-back 50-save seasons - and he's posting numbers that suggest he's actually more dominant than he was back then. Are we to believe he's a better pitcher, but lost the ability to believe in himself?

Again...possibly.

But let's jump away from the unprovable and jump into what we know. Johnson might be pitching the best baseball of his life, but a few themes have developed that might explain his struggles. Leverage refers to the importance of the situation in regards to a particular plate appearance. It's the best way we can calculate the idea of whether or not a situation is clutch. How important is that moment? A simple way to organize this line of thinking is to refer to low-leverage, high-leverage, and of course in between that is medium-leverage. This is dependent on the score, the inning, and so forth. This season, major league hitters have a 95 wRC+ in low-leverage situations, a 99 wRC+ in medium-leverage situations, and a 91 wRC+ in high-leverage situations. The overwhelming majority of situations are low and medium. Simple enough?

Leverage	Batters Faced	Opp wOBA	K%	BB%	FIP	xFIP
Low	55	.240	24%	4%	2.86	3.08
Medium	53	.235	34%	8%	1.35	2.15
High	66	.299	29%	12%	3.08	4.16

Jim Johnson has very solid numbers regardless of the situation, but does struggle more in high-leverage moments during the game. As a closer, he'll see those situations more, too.

Worse - this isn't a new thing. David Appelman attempted to refine our idea of what clutch is and put it into a metric. What this stat attempts to do is tell us how worse or better the player performed in a high-leverage moment versus one of neutral leverage. The number has many flaws, but with a good deal of data, it could give us an idea in how that player has performed in the past. Johnson's career clutch rating is -0.32. That's slightly below-average. But he hasn't been a closer his whole career. If we are going to look at just 2012, 2013, 2016, and 2017 - the years he has 20 or more saves - a frightening thing develops. In three of his four years as at least a part-time closer, Johnson has carried a negative Clutch rating of nearly -1.

He's also been prone to a number nobody wants to be in the Top 10 of - meltdowns. This is situations in which a pitcher had a WPA, or Win Probably Added, of -0.06 or less (worse). Over the last five years, Johnson has had 52, the seventh most. To put that into some sort of context for Braves fans, Tyler Clippard has the fifth-most with 53. To be fair to Johnson, he's also 21st in most shutdowns - or outings with a WPA of 0.06 or better. However, he stands out on a list of the Top 30 pitchers over the last five years with the most shutdowns because he's the only pitcher on the list with a negative WPA.

It's very important to note that none of these leverage/win probably stats are predictive. They only tell us what has already happened. It's also worth mentioning a few things in regards to those leverage stats - Johnson has a .368 BABIP and 42% Left-on-Base% in high leverage situations. These numbers imply some degree of bad luck. Of course, significant increases in walks won't help, either. Further, over his career, he doesn't shown significant differences in regards to the relative leverage of a situation. This needs to be mentioned because in some regards, we should expect those "luck" numbers to regress at least some.

That brings little solace to Braves fans. In the end, Johnson is a product of a bad system. The book says you need a closer. That closer should be your most effective pitcher. By strikeout percentage, walk percentage, FIP, etc. - that pitcher is James Robert Johnson. The Braves have one other real option in Arodys Vizcaino, who has been better this season in high-leverage situations. Again, it's not a predictive stat, but Vizcaino has always had the kind of arm people thought was capable of closing games. If one has to define the pitcher roles, Vizcaino is the logical replacement to Johnson.

The problem, though, is regardless of what role he's pitching in, Johnson has been too successful in Atlanta to not be in high-leverage situations. Perhaps he'd get fewer of them in a setup role, but not significantly less. The metric, inLI, gauges the average leverage when a pitcher enters an inning. The average inning has a LI of 1. High-leverage situations are defined as 2-and-above while low-leverage outings typically start at 0.85 and below. The Braves have used three pitchers whose inLI is above 1. Johnson has an average of 1.63, Vizcaino has an average inLI of 1.35, and Jose Ramirez has a 1.14 inLI. Unsurprisingly, those three are usually utilized in innings 7 through 9 when the Braves are tied or have the lead. Flipping Johnson with Vizcaino might help him avoid some higher-leverage situations, but he'll still be counted on with the game on the line in many cases.

The Braves don't have a lot of options right now except to hope. They may hope another team trades for Johnson without them having to give away the righty who has great overall numbers. They can also hope the leverage numbers and win probability metrics start to regress. In the end, without clearly better alternatives, it's Johnson or bust in high leverage situations.

Of course, the struggles of Chris Reitsma prompted the Braves to later trade for Bob Wickman, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Gonzalez. They learned their lesson the hard way. This iteration of the Braves appears to be watching history repeat itself.

(Stats accurate entering 7/23/17)

The Great Run Differential Debate

As the Braves polished off the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon, ESPN's Dan Szymborski took to twitter. Things quickly went nutty from there.

Braves are at .500! With a similar run differential to the Mets, White Sox, Pirates, and Angels. So...yeah...

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) July 16, 2017

Ignoring the "So...yeah..." at the end, the tweet is accurate. With a run differential of -34, the Braves are reasonably close in run differential with the Mets (-40), White Sox (-36), Pirates (-25), and Angels (-25). These are all below-.500 squads with the White Sox over ten games under .500.

Szymborski would go on to argue the point as Braves fans confronted him. When fans would bring up losing Freddie Freeman for a significant amount of time and having Bartolo Colon struggle tremendously with the Braves and how these things affected run differential, Szymborski pointed out that you can't just take out the bad things. You also need to bring up the good things that have occurred that can not be counted on to be sustainable (he brings up Tyler Flowers having a .400 OBP and Freddie Freeman's adjusted OPS+ of 202).

Here's the thing - he's not wrong, but his approach is abysmal as he goes on to say that he "missed the BARVES crowd." Gee, thanks, Dan.

But back to his underlying point. Run differential can mean something. It's not the end-all of stats and can be sample-size driven. At the same time, it can tell us - as the season progresses - if a team is playing over or under what we should expect from them. The Expected Win-Loss Record, also called the Pythagorean expectation, is a nifty little tool for snapshot reasons. Most of the time, it proves fairly accurate and we see regression one way or the other.

There is a good deal of accuracy in run differential. It tells a story and it helps us predict the future.

Moving on, is there validity to the idea that, if you remove Colon's struggles and the beating the Astros gave the Braves a few weeks ago, the Braves are a better team? This is the other accurate point Szymborski attempts to make. The Braves are just as likely to improve without having to face the Astros or have Colon pitch every fifth day as they are to regress due to players beginning to fall back to their means (their catchers, Johan Camargo, and so on). Every team is dealing with similar issues - some more than others - and bringing them up as signs that the run differential is false may lose context.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

But here's the good news for Braves fans. The Braves are a team in flux. Of their opening day roster, four have been released while four others are on the Disabled List. A ninth player, Anthony Recker, is in the minors and a tenth player, Jace Peterson, will likely be demoted on Monday. In most of these cases, the Braves have improved when replacing members of their opening day roster. Johan Camargo is better than Adonis Garcia. Danny Santana is better than Emilio Bonifacio. Matt Adams is tremendously better than Chase d'Arnaud. The arms of Sean Newcomb, Luke Jackson, Jason Hursh, and Akeel Morris profile much better than the ones they replaced. The Braves are improving incrementally most of the time they choose a member of their minor league system over a player previously on the major league roster. That's something that run differential cannot speak to.

Consider this. The run differential at the end of May was -42. It's now down to -34. That's not a huge improvement, but it is an improvement. We can go an extra mile. Over 59 games, from May 12 to July 16, the Braves have a run differential of +1. Here's the math - 289 runs scored, 288 runs given up.

Is that cherry-picking? You betcha. May 12 was a win that put a halt to a six-game losing streak and also improved upon a season-worst nine games under .500. I didn't specifically look for a way to find an arbitrary point that would show the Braves with a positive run differential, but it ended up that way.

The Braves may not be a great team. Certainly, I've made that argument over this season. Defensively, they have significant issues and the pitching staff has been a season-long project. But they are improving and for fans of the Braves, that's exactly what you should be looking for with this rebuilding team. Are they ready for primetime (i.e. the playoffs)? I have my doubts, but are they the same team that only won 12 of their first 32 ballgames? Again, I have my doubts.

In the mean time, it's much too simple to chalk it all up to run differential and predict regression. This team is not the same one that opened up the season by losing 6-0 to the Mets. For Braves fans, that's a breath of fresh air.