Braves Sign Jason Grilli...Because Reasons

It's been only a few months since John Hart assumed the job as "dude in charge" for the Atlanta Braves and the moves so far have been fairly uneven. Trade Jason Heyward, sign Nick Markakis. Ship out Tommy La Stella, add Alberto Callaspo. Send Justin Upton packing, ink...Jason Grilli? What's next? Trading Mike Minor to bring back Aaron Harang?

Grilli is the latest addition to the remade Atlanta Braves, signed to a $8M contract over the next two seasons with an option for 2017...the amazing wonderful year where it will all make sense. This is probably too much snark for Christmas Eve, but Hart made me do it.

The former Pirates closer joins a bullpen that already included the dominating Craig Kimbrel, arbitration-eligible arms like David Carpenter and James Russell, newly minted Jim Johnson, reacquired Arodys Vizcaino, holdover Luis Avilan, and a list of young guys looking to establish themselves: Shae Simmons, Chasen Shreve, Ian Thomas, and Juan Jaime. Oh, and David Hale.

That would appear to signal a pending trade including at least one reliever to clear things up a little. But even with that trade, this signing is just odd. After all, if a trade took away one of the known guys (Kimbrel, Carp, Russell, Johnson), you would still have a lot of names working their way into the picture. Course, you could have it be even more complicated if you still had Anthony Varvaro, but luckily, he's a Red Sox now. Dodged that bullet (?).

And why the Braves had to sink $8M and two years into Grilli is also a conundrum. Coincidentally, the Cardinals just signed our old buddy Jordan Walden to a 2 year, $6.6M, but I'll give you that the comparison between the two is moot because Walden was still arbitration-eligible.  As far as multiple year contracts go, Grilli's is the third cheapest contract given out on the free agent market so far. But that's also the rub. Guys like Grilli typically don't get, coming off an unimpressive 2014, a contract with multiple seasons guaranteed.

With that said, who is Grilli? Well, you can always buy his book and figure it out. Or if you want to save yourself the brain aneurysm, you can read the tremendous review of said book from Bucs Dugout. I can't stress this enough. Do the latter.

Oh, wait, what kind of pitcher is he? A former first round pick, Grilli has struggled to stay healthy and even when he was, he hasn't been all that effective until landing in Pittsburgh. His success culminated into a dominant 2013 where he posted a 1.97 FIP with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 5. That is pretty damn good. That should get you excited. A two-pitch pitcher, Grilli relies on a well-spotted 92-95 mph fastball to set up his out pitch, a slider that he shelved his big breaking curveball around 2007.

Why did he go from All-Star in 2013 to traded away for pennies the next year? He wasn't controlling the count. In the two years preceding 2014, 14.4% of his strikes were swinging strikes. Obviously, that is an example of sick stuff and good counts. Only eight relievers were better, including Kimbrel. This led to the 12th best O-Swing%, or the percentage of total swings that were on balls outside the strikezone. When Joe Simpson goes to the cliche pantry and pulls out "swinging at a pitcher's pitch," that's what he's talking about (provided Simpson is lucid and not on his painkillers again). Those marks that were so good in 2012-13 saw significant drops in 2014, leading to a higher contact rate, fewer strikeouts, and the Pirates shuffling him off to Los Angeles to play in Anaheim with the Angels. That team name is still stupid.

Now, this doesn't mean Grilli stopped being a quality pitcher. The great thing about being awesome at any point is when you lose something, you're still good. So, compared to his previous seasons, Grilli was crap. Compared to a lesser pitcher, Grilli holds his own. Still gets a K an inning, still keeps his FIP relatively low (3.37 last year and much lower with the Angels), and his velocity was pretty stable.

All told, Atlanta got a quality pitcher at a reasonable sum. You're sensing a "but," aren't you?

However, it's still a rather confusing signing. The Braves, who have known weaknesses and holes to deal with added to what could be at worst classified as adequate and as best, a strength. In addition, they did it over two years while adding a guy for his age-38 and age-39 seasons. This gets us back to the point that concerned me earlier this winter. Are we rebuilding or doing the "well, we still got a some good guys so let's try to sneak into the playoffs" thing? There's probably a better way of saying that, but hopefully you get the jist because the second one annoys me. Commit to one thing. You've spent all winter badmouthing the former general manager and talking about the state of the franchise in his aftermath. Yet, you talk about how close the team really is and how you are gearing up to compete. The inconsistency would drive Joe Morgan mad. The longest rebuild comes form the franchise that refuses to commit to a philosophy.

But hey, if this is just to buy time for the youngsters because you can find a team willing to pay a premium for Kimbrel, great move, Hart!

Mike Minor Over Randall Delgado? RLY?

Updated: 10:30 PM, 7/15 - Dr. Brave at Chopnation brought something to my attention that I forgot in my haste to complain about this move.  Demoting Mike Minor would likely exhaust his options and force the Braves (and any team they possibly trade him to) into a tough decision if Minor plays himself into a demotion at a later date.  When you look at it that way and with Randall Delgado not exactly setting the world on fire, I am tempted to completely withdraw my objection to the decision.

According to something that goes by the name Vivlamore, the Braves have decided to demote Randall Delgado for Ben Sheets.  I get the idea.  Delgado gets a start Monday at Gwinnett and gets brought back up on Saturday for the double header in D.C.  That's cool.

The move means left-hander Mike Minor will keep his spot in the rotation and will likely pitch Wednesday against the Giants. The Braves had to choose between Minor and Delgado to make room for Sheets as both youngsters have struggled this season.

“It was a tough decision between him and Minor,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “The last couple starts with Minor we felt there was some progress being made.”

Wait...what?  First off...why would you need to throw out Minor on Wednesday?  Ya know, I'll get back to that.

What "progress" is being made by Mike Minor?  He looked decent against the Cubs on the fifth, but it is the Cubs after all and they lost their offense in the ivy (along with Andre Dawson, apparently).  Minor gave up three hits, walked three, and K'd six over six innings.  Three runs scored and one homer was surrendered.  The game snapped a streak of three straight with four or more runs given up.  After beginning the year with three solid starts, Minor has three quality starts in 13 games.  Four pitchers have a worse FIP.  He's tied with one of those guys in HR/9 and it's not like Minor really plays in a homerific park.

And sadly, Gonzalez thinks he's showing improvement.  It is true that he has not allowed homers at a head-spinning rate like he did when he gave up eleven in five starts (he's been touched up for seven in seven starts since), but just because not as many balls have left the reservation doesn't mean he's pitching at all well.  Has he been unlucky?  Sure.  Probably.  Maybe.  But progress?  Apparently, Gonzalez thinks "progress" means something else.

Not to say Delgado has been awesome by any means because he hasn't, but he's been noticeably better than Minor.  Of the current rotation, only Tim Hudson has outperformed Delgado's 4.21 FIP and 4.17 xFIP.  Delgado's walks have been an issue, but in an ACTUAL example of progress, Delgado has issued five walks over his last four starts (19.1 ING), an improvement if only because he issued six in the game preceding the previous four.  Still considering he's walked three or more in nine of his 16 starts, to have a run of four starts without running into considerable control issues is progress.

A part of me believes the difference isn't severe between the two, but regardless, shouldn't you want the better starter on the mound?  Another part of me believes Minor is the guy they are trying to sell to Milwaukee in any potential Zack Greinke deal.  Still another part of me thinks Gonzalez flipped a coin and built a BS story to justify the Gods' choice.

By the way...with an off day Monday, why start Minor on Wednesday?  Jair Jurrjens could go Tuesday and back to the rest of the staff on regular rest (Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Sheets) to set up Minor/Delgado for the double header.

But I forgot to consult my Book of Random Decisions.

I Know! We Need Gamers!

I admit that it's not fair for me to be critical of other bloggers.  This thing we do is really not as easy as we want to believe it is.  Sure, you think it's going to be easy.  "Oh, I'll start a blog.  I'm important.  It'll be easy!"  However, you find yourself trying to find subjects to write about or wondering if anyone cares or wondering if you even care.

But when someone writes nonsensical stuff like "Braves need more gamers to compete at highest level," you can't avoid the desire to go over it like a bad episode of Mystery Science Theatre 3000.

For those who don’t know, Simmons broke his pinky by sliding into second base on a single that he stretched out when the center fielder lollygagged his throw back to the infield. Now, many people would probably criticize his aggressiveness, particularly his headfirst slide, which Braves fans know the dangers of. After the game, manager Fredi Gonzalez said he had been pushing his players to play with that level of competitiveness and he couldn’t really fault Simmons for pushing the play.

No, Fredi can't really fault Simmons for pushing the play, but it wasn't his aggressiveness that got him in  trouble either.  It was the head-first slide into second base.  See, if he slides cleats-first, there does remain a chance that Simmons gets hurt, but there is also a chance that he spikes Utley (who had his leg down blocking the bag) and sends a message that you better watch out.  And while sliding face-first might present more along the line of impromptu moves during the slide to better the chances of being safe, there is just too many risks to go with your face-first slide that it should be argued against.

Listen, being aggressive is awesome, but you also need to try to be safe.

I see both sides, certainly. On one hand, you want your players to play safe ball and stay healthy throughout the season. On the other hand, a team can find a lot of success by pushing the pace and the energy of the game.

Enter the “gamer.”

Ah, yes, the "gamer."  I admit that these quasi-romantic terms do nothing for me.  Like obscenity, the user of the term seems to know it when he sees it.  People who love these terms love them because they bring a sort of unforeseen force to the game, making it more of a religion.  When asked what exactly they may, they tend to focus on vague descriptions.  He works hard.  He sees the ball well.  He's clutch.  He just always seems to be in the right place.  Seriously, this shit annoys me because it doesn't respect the work ethic and effort that typically allows for the "gamer" to shine.

Braves fans have been wowed by Simmons on many levels. His speed is an obvious improvement to the team, an asset the Braves haven’t seen a lot of in the past. They play more small ball than they’ve relied on power, but speed has come at a premium. But Simmons also brought a sense of the game that not every player has, as well as an arm like a cannon and a fairly reliable bat. What more could you ask for?

Right now, a healthy shortstop.  But really...Simmons' speed?  Rafael Furcal (2000-05), Edgar Renteria (2006-07), and Yunel Escobar (2007-10) must have been a lot slower than I remembered or their stats have informed me of.  No, I do get it that Simmons defense has been extraordinary and by no means am I saying that he's not a better defender than that trio, but Simmons, while fast, is definitely no more faster than Furcal.  Renty swiped 28 bases in his two years here.  As for the Braves playing small ball...I'm told by every traditionalist I come into contact with that the Braves need to play more small ball.  By the way..."small ball"...another vague, non-nonsensical term to go with "gamer."  Finally, "Simmons also brought a sense of the game"...really?

Let’s go back to his “baseball sense” for a moment. This is an instinct for the game that isn’t easily taught. Brian McCann has often been picked out for his natural talent for the game and was let off the leash early as a catcher, meaning he was calling pitches and plays because he had the head for it. Chipper Jones has that sense, which is supported by his numbers at the plate. I think Jason Heyward has that sense, but has kept it somewhat under wraps for the start of his career.

Instincts by definition are not taught.  I think you are confusing "instincts" with skills.  When combined, skills can really take off.  McCann's knowledge of the game comes from years of watching baseball and as he has perfected the art, he has become better at using video and scouting reports.  That's not so much natural as it is a learned art.  While obviously, catchers tend to have a "head" for the game, they often get there because they have to be a sponge and take in a wealth of knowledge on hitters, tendencies, who's hot/not?, defensive alignment, calling pitches to fit that alignment, pitcher's abilities, baserunner's abilities, and so on and so on.  Why belittle that by saying McCann has a "sense" for it?  Dude works his ass off.  If he had a "sense" for it, his footwork wouldn't be so bad.  Chipper is even a bigger example of this.  Chipper is known and respected for his knowledge and his ability to seemingly access memory at will.  That was instilled in him at an early age with Larry Sr. and has continued for 20-plus years as a professional in this game.  It's not a sense, but a concerted effort to be the best.

When I say that, I mean that when Heyward came on the scene, no one could say enough about the potential he had as a ballplayer. His bat and speed were the high points; he was projected to bring new power to the Braves and be a strong outfielder. But his first year, while good and somewhat eye-opening, wasn’t what I expected from all the talk. I certainly didn’t expect his second year to be such a letdown. Sure, it was shadowed by some injuries (headfirst slide!), but his bat all but died and people began to wonder if they hadn’t been premature in their speculation.

Since 1980, only two position players have posted a better than 5.1 WAR while spending most of the year at 20 years-old.  Heyward's 5.1 WAR ranks behind Alex Rodriguez's 9.8 WAR and Ken Griffey Jr.'s 5.3 WAR.  Those guys are Hall of Fame-bound.  That not eye-opening enough for you?  Maybe it wasn't Mike Trout good (he will likely better Heyward's 5.1 WAR), but it was still a damn good accomplishment.  People need to understand how awesome Heyward's rookie season was.  I don't know if people felt it was less than astonishing because of his terrible follow-up season or if they just don't get it, but Heyward was extraordinary in 2010.  I think people who soured on Heyward after his sophomore season aren't very smart or capable analysts.

The Braves need to perform like a gamer team. I think over the last few years, including the transition from Bobby Cox to Gonzalez, they’ve lost a little of that excitement and energy that used to come so easily to them. That can certainly be changed with youth, who tend to bring a fresh-faced energy with them, but it helps for it to be infectious, to encompass the whole team.

Again, no real definition.  The Braves, last season, were around the average in both hitters' age and pitchers' age.  Their pitching was the fourth oldest in 2010 and hitters were around the average.  In fact, there hitters haven't been amongst the youngest since back-to-back playoff misses in '06-'07, but really, that's not all that important.  What is important is that excitement and energy are fun and everything, but it doesn't mean a lot if you aren't winning and winning games comes down to pitching well, fielding your position, and getting on base.  I promise you that you can have a team of guys with loads of energy vs. a team that calmly goes about their business but is more talented and the more talented team will typically win.  Unless they are managed by Fredi that is.

Matt Diaz probably has more energy than anyone else on the team.  He hustles, tries hard, does everything he can.  He's still dragging the team down.  Energy never replaces talent.  Tyler Pastornicky didn't suck because he wasn't excited about being in the bigs or coming to the park with fresh-faced energy.  He sucked because he's not a particularly gifted player.  This isn't basketball where a high energy can seems to really change the game.  There are no Anderson Varejao's in baseball.  There is simply a gap between talent and untalented, performing and nonperforming, coaching and Fredi Gonzalez.  The Braves don't win because they "out-energied" the competition.

Gamers are a fun cliche, but the fact is the Braves need more than cliches.  They need a starter capable of posting a solid K/9 rate and good WHIP.  They need a shortstop capable of walking upright.  They need bench players who get on-base.  Jack Wilson doesn't suck because he doesn't gamer-it-up enough.  He sucks because he sucks.  I know he tries hard.  He's a professional!  Nonperforming players typically last even shorter if they don't have energy and don't try hard.  They made it to the major fucking leagues.  750 people on a given day accomplish such a feat.  But when you get to the bigs, things change.  Either you can hit a curve or you can't.  Either you can throw your fastball for quality strikes or you can't.  No amount of energy makes up for a lack of range.  You aren't a gamer if you take the extra base...you're simply doing your job.

You know who was a gamer?  Brooks Conrad.  Dude gave everything he had and still couldn't field a ball in the 2010 playoffs.  But being a gamer ultimately doesn't beat anyone.  

But seriously, Fredi sucks.

How Awful is Jack Wilson?

Jack Wilson just grounded out as a pinch hitter in tonight's game against the Diamondbacks.  It was 2-2, the Braves were guaranteed eleven more outs, and no one was on base with the top of the lineup due up.  Fredi Gonzalez goes to Jack Wilson to get a rally started.

Don't think about that idea too long or your head might explode.  Jack Wilson is hitting .172 on this season in 36 games and 70 PA.  Does he get on base?  No - two walks.  Does he hit for power?  No - 1 2B, 1 3B.  Oh, so he's still an amazing defender, right?  Nope - negative UZR over the last three seasons with a -13.1 UZR/150 this season. 

I get that he had a history of being a solid defender with some outstanding seasons as a Pirate and with Tyler Pastornicky sucking it up as a major leaguer, the Braves needed a defensive option to be the Rev's caddy.  Andrelton Simmons, however, has been in the majors since the beginning of June and is a better defender.

I am Jack Wilson's Utter Lack of Ability.

Listen, I know I'm not privy to all of the insides of baseball.  Maybe Wilson is a great guy in the clubhouse.  Maybe he plays jokes and settles differences and gives awesome backrubs.  Like I said, I don't know.  What I do know is that Wilson is a beyond horrible ballplayer in today's game.  It's not personal, it's just a fact.  Why a team wouldn't change out a bad bench player for one that might be productive is beyond me.  I understand that currently, Wilson is the only Brave capable of playing shortstop behind Chipper.  But that doesn't mean you can't grab a shortstop-capable backup to join the bench.  

This continues to be one of my pet peeves.  Don't stick with bad ballplayers with no potential.  Move on and improve your team in every possible way.  I understand improving the 25th man on your roster doesn't have the same importance as acquiring a starting pitcher to stabilize the top of the rotation, but regardless, the Braves need to stop carrying Wilson because...

Well, it pisses me off.

That and he's terrible.  But still, it pisses me off.

Are the Braves Built to Win?

Several years ago, then-General Manager John Schuerholz published an ego-stroking book called Built to Win.  At the time, the Braves were coming off the "Baby Braves" year of 2005, a year that was supposed to jump-start the next string of playoff appearances.  Since that book was released during the spring of '06, the Braves have made one trip to October baseball and find themselves in the midst of a disturbing trend of loses.  On May 20th, Tim Hudson and the Braves shutdown David Price and the Rays 2-0.  Since that win, the Braves are 9-16.  By the way, that string includes a six-game win streak.  They have lost a game-and-a-half lead and now trail the NL East by 4.5, which is only possible because the Nationals are remembering that they are the Nationals of late.

Did the book create a curse or are the Braves just not built to win anymore?  Well, since I don't believe in curses, I am forced to look at what it holding the Braves back.  This is a team that has the fourth most valuable offensive player according to fWAR in baseball leading off.  Martin Prado follows with 2.9 WAR, good for 12th.  Dan Uggla has played some of the best baseball of his life, though you wouldn't know it by seeing the comment pages at Yahoo, MLB.com, or the AJC.  But, to their credit, those people are fucking idiots.  Jason Heyward's defense has been tremendous and his .339 wOBA has been productive, though the Braves justifiably were hoping for more.  Brandon Beachy has been great, though that looks like it has ended.  Tim Hudson's FIP of 3.08 makes his 3.90 ERA look much nicer and Craig Kimbrel has shown that, if not the best, he's among the class of his position.

That's a lot of great stuff, huh?  Well, outside the the whole Beachy injury.

Two things truly stand out quite negatively.  One, I only mentioned three pitchers.  Randall Delgado has turned it around a bit and we have seen some good things from Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen, but that is about it.  Mike Minor has turned into a schizophrenic - sometimes good, sometimes bad, rarely just okay.  Makes a guy miss Russ Ortiz...and that gives me the shakes.  And really, outside of Minor, the rotation is the only good thing about this staff.  Jonny Venters has been a disappointment and his FIP doesn't show signs of unluckiness, though his xFIP gives some hope I guess.  Eric O'Flaherty is in the same boat.  Chad Durbin's results have been much nicer than the way he's pitched.  I guess Lispy has been decent, though.  Getting Meds back into the pen is almost a necessity because of how poorly the guys trying to get the game to Kimbrel have been. 

And let's not even go into the abysmal failure that has been the Braves bench.  There is no legitimate reason why Jack Wilson and Juan Francisco are in the major leagues.  Francisco's on-base is .243.  It would be all find and dandy if this was the Pirates, who took a chance on Brandon Wood figuring it out, but the Braves are supposed to be contenders.  You don't keep hoping Francisco gets it together while wasting at-bats and assisting the competition in beating you.  The demotion of Tyler Pastornicky means that Wilson's "job" as defensive replacement was voided.  The Braves are essentially keeping a guy whose main value now is that he bunts really nicely.  Matt Diaz has had his moments (I guess) and I give Eric Hinske a longer leash than many because, well, he's been exposed because of injuries.

Brian McCann has been in a season-long slump, though he has showed signs of turning it around.  Chipper Jones, between ugly-ass bruises and a second wife tired of his affection for Hooters (I'm guessing), has struggled since returning off the DL.  First, Freddie Freeman couldn't see and now he can't hold a bat.  Tomorrow, I imagine he will lose the sense of smell.

A lot of the above really sucks, but let's be honest, the coaching doesn't seem to be doing the Braves any favors.  There is a growing movement in social media to axe Roger McDowell.  I am not there yet, but I can see the validity in contending that McDowell isn't right for the job.  In his defense, he is dealing with a lot of young pitchers and the regression of Venters and O'Flaherty happening in the same year is a bit much to deal with.  That said, this is a results-driven business and his job is on the line during the second half.  Or at least, it should be.

But then, Fredi Gonzalez should be on the hotseat.  Gonzalez, who was at the helm during last season's epic collapse, has saw these Braves get an early start.  After a great opening to the season, with the offense no longer slugging or at least stringing together long at-bats, the Braves are no longer a front-runner and that does, in some part, fall upon Gonzalez's shoulders.  Listen, I do believe that we as fans tend to overdo the idea that the manager deserves all the blame.  I don't think it's all Fredi's fault, but some of the roster and game decisions have been so damn frustrating that it's hard not to think something needs to be changed with the leadership.  Playing short-handed rather than DL certain players, most memorably Chipper, hurts the team and with very little good reason.  I'd rather lose a guy for 15 days and have an extra spot on the roster, especially in the NL, than lose a guy for ten days and play with 24 men.  His usage of the pen has been downright mind-boggling at times.  His quick hook has hurt more times than it has helped and he doesn't seem to adjust to that.

The Braves are a mix of nice pieces and dead weight.  Beyond that, management seems incapable or unwilling to move this franchise toward bigger and better things.  The Bobby Cox-handpicked successor is a failure to this point.  Damn his winning record.  Most Braves fans feel, and I agree, that this team has just about as much talent as any contender, but the Braves seem destined to finish under .500 for the second consecutive month.  With every day that nothing is done to this roster or management, the feeling that this team is headed to yet another early offseason grows.  No, this team isn't built to win, but it's not a terrible squad either.  There is enough here to cobble together a Wild Card winning team, a team that, if hot, has the chance to go deep into the playoffs. 

But changes need to be made today, not tomorrow.  You can lose a shot at making the playoffs in June just as easily as you can September.