What Happened? - The 2017 Braves Story (Part 1 of 2)

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

It wasn't supposed to be like this.

Even if the Atlanta Braves were not ready to be legitimate contenders for a Wild Card slot, they were supposed to a better than 11-20 through the first 31 games with a -35 score differential. People expected a team resembling the one that won 31 of its final 56 games and why not? Bonifide major league veterans like Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, and Jaime Garcia were replacing the overmatched trio of Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Williams Perez. The Braves were no longer trolling through former big league starter hell to unearth Roberto Hernandez and Lucas Harrell. The bullpen, which had found its way last season down the stretch, was returning all of its key parts and was supposed to have even better depth.

And the offense? They were expected to be much improved without the likes of Gordon Beckham, Erick Aybar, and A.J. Pierzynski receiving 200 PA or more.

So...what happened?

Either later this evening or tomorrow, I'll look at some pitching suggestions that might help, but for now, let's look at the offense. It is nearly impossible to produce at a solid rate when only a third of your lineup has been above-average. The opening day lineup's wOBA looks like this. See if you can pick out who's who.

.316
.217
.488
.420
.326
.316
.264
.393

A simple scale suggests a .320 wOBA is average. Ignoring what these eight player's defensive capabilities are, that is not a lineup capable of scoring many runs. By the way, that .393 at the bottom belongs to Tyler Flowers, who typically hits seventh behind Adonis Garcia. He's the guy with a .264 wOBA.

Dansby Swanson has been banished to the bottom of the lineup to try to work through his struggles. His .203 BABIP is not his fault, but a 17.3% line-drive rate is not helping matters. Ender Inciarte has stayed in the top spot every game, though. He's getting on base at a .308 clip. It's not the worst leadoff OBP in baseball. In fact, ten other players who have 50 PA in the leadoff spot are worse. It's still a contributing factor - along with Swanson's failures and Brandon Phillips's cooling down - to one of the Braves' biggest offensive issues.

To this point, the Braves have wasted having one-of-the (and some would argue the) best hitters in baseball. I'm not one to talk up the merits of the runs batted in, or RBI, statistic. Nevertheless, despite the third-best wOBA in baseball, Freddie Freeman has just 20 RBI. To this point, Freeman has played every inning of the season. Here's a stat that might be a bit shocking - 92 other players in the National League have more PA with baserunners on than Freddie Freeman. This is despite hitting in what is supposedly the top place in the lineup for run production. The only Braves regular with fewer baserunners on base than Freeman is Flowers, who, again, hits behind Adonis Garcia.

Freeman and Matt Kemp (who missed ten games earlier this season) have given the Braves a 1-2 combo that can hang with any other team in baseball, yet the Braves are 12th in runs scored in the NL because of lineup sinkholes like Garcia and Swanson, a bench incapable of providing the Braves any lift, and regulars like Phillips and Nick Markakis, who have been nice complimentary players when the Braves need better results.

The problem with the offense moving forward is that the Braves are pretty stuck with what they have. Sure, the Braves can bring up Rio Ruiz. After a slow start, Ruiz has hit a #nice .290/.348/.548 over his last 69 PA (18 games) with four doubles and as many homers. He's still platoon-limited, but so is the current third baseman for the Braves. Fortunately, Ruiz hits left-handed and Garcia bats right-handed so together, they kind of make a complete third baseman. And with 163 games at the Triple-A level, Ruiz is likely ready to sink-or-swim in the bigs.

That's the one obvious player transaction for the Braves to make. They can fiddle with the bench some (bringing back Lane Adams and/or Johan Camargo would be a start). If Swanson's struggles don't start to turn the tide soon, they could swap out the young shortstop for Camargo and let Swanson hit his way back into the bigs. Personally, I'm still not very worried about Swanson, but at this point, you can't be upset if the Braves just shake up things just to do it.

This is where I mention Ozzie Albies. I'd love to believe the 20-year-old is ready, but the results say otherwise. And that's okay. The average pitcher he's facing is seven years older than he is with much more experience. Check in again this summer.

Atlanta could also go the lineup optimization route and try to change up the order. It's not the worst idea, though repeated studies have shown lineup optimization is not nearly as important as we seem to think it ought to be. Even with that in mind, a top of the lineup with Markakis, Phillips, Freeman, Kemp, and Flowers could lead to better run production in the long run.

All in all, this offense just doesn't have the firepower to be a great offense. A streaky good one, absolutely. You also might be thinking "but Inciarte and others are bound to improve, right?" You're absolutely correct. Inciarte's BABIP is over forty points below his career average. It should improve and with it, he'll get on base more. But Tyler Flowers is unlikely to have a .478 BABIP all season - though Chris Johnson's "BABIP God" moniker is in serious trouble. Freeman is a beast, but do we really expect Kemp's BABIP to continue to float forty points over his career average? For more on BABIP and the Braves, check out Ryan Cothran's first article for Walk-Off Walk.

There's room for improvement, but there's also room for falling back to the mean. The Braves can try minor fixes (Ruiz, Adams, Camargo), but I don't foresee this offense being much better than average. Let's be clear, though. The average is much better than the recent history for the Braves. And if the Braves pitching was considerably better, that average offense would be enough to compete for a playoff spot.

So, about that pitching...

(Part 2 due either tonight or tomorrow afternoon)

Braves Go Older, Add Boyer and Suzuki

This tweet is pretty fair.

The Braves really confuse me, they haven't done anything that really undermines the rebuild, but damn that roster is old for a rebuilder.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 21, 2017

Yes, the roster continues to age as the Braves sign catcher Kurt Suzuki and right-handed reliever Blaine Boyer. The latter was announced a few days ago and is a minor league pact with a spring training invite. Suzuki's contract calls for a base salary of $1.5 million in 2017 with an additional $2.5 million to be earned through yet-to-be-named incentives.

Let's start with Suzuki because that's the bigger deal here - relatively speaking. After maturing in the uber-successful Cal-State Fullerton program, the native Hawaiian was a second-round pick by Oakland in 2004. Three years later, he was in the majors and had a pair of three-win seasons his first two full years with the A's. Since then, he's been in the 1-2 win area while often failing to reach 1 fWAR. In fact, since 2010, Suzuki has a triple slash of.248/.303/.360 with a .292 wOBA and 81 wRC+. Last year, his offensive numbers were pretty in line with that.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

So, we can hypothesize that Suzuki continues to receive 300+ PA because of his defense, right? Kind of. Of the 24 catchers who have caught at least 2000 innings over the last three years, Suzuki ranks 19th according to Fangraphs' Defensive Component. For reference, Tyler Flowers ranks 22nd and A.J. Pierzynski ranked 23rd. Susuzki's rSB, which seeks to rank a player by how well he controls the running game, is -14 over the last three years - the worst mark of the sample I just cited. On the plus size, he is tied for fourth in rGFP, a stat that is a good sign of athleticism behind home play (the top three are Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, and Welington Castillo). That suggests a catcher who is very capable of making the kind of play pictured to the right.

Pitch-framing wise, Suzuki's been below average in pitch framing since his rookie year according to Statcorner.com. Baseball Prospectus agrees - though has been a bit harsher than Statcorner. It should be said that Suzuki has been amazingly durable throughout his career.

So, if you are like me, you don't really understand this signing based on the information I have provided. On one side, I fully get the argument that Suzuki is likely a better choice than Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch, who were the current in-house options to play behind Flowers. That's a fair argument to make, too. Gosewisch has a career -0.8 fWAR because he can't hit while Recker's only had the briefest of success in the majors. And the Braves invested very little into Suzuki - who could turn into this year's Emilio Bonifacio. Signed to a similar deal last winter, Bonifacio was still cut with the Braves absorbing his salary at the end of spring training.

Personally, however, it does seem like an unnecessary addition. Suzuki might make the Braves better in 2017, but the difference between him and Recker is so minuscule that it's barely worth mentioning. Further, with Recker's recent success, you could argue that there is the slimmest chance he continues into 2017. The scene from Dumb and Dumber might be playing in your head - "so, you're saying there's a chance?" To be fair, it's not likely that Recker does that. Also in Suzuki's favor is that the team has another veteran capable of taking over full-time should Flowers falter into the mess that was the guy catching for the White Sox. Suzuki won't be much better than that version of Flowers, but is a stabilizing force.

That said, I would have preferred an open competition and a non-roster catcher or two with a chance to push Recker and Gosewisch.

Ken Lund (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

As for Boyer, you really ought to read Travis Sawchik's article at Fangraphs on Boyer. One of the true amazing things about Boyer is how through Statcast, we now are looking at him in a difference light. Boyer, who doesn't strikeout anyone, "allowed the lowest rate of barrels (1.0 percent), on the strength of an average 86.2 mph exit velocity that ranked 11th." What happens now is particularly interesting. How much control does a pitcher have on the quality of contact he allows and is it a skill or just luck based? Boyer might not get an opportunity to give us any sort of answer because he's not promised a spot. Again, this is a simple minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

With that in mind, Boyer is battling some pretty interesting arms for a spot on this year's roster. He'll need a strong spring training and for whatever it's worth, Boyer has had some ugly limited samples in three of the last four spring training's. You have to imagine that a veteran who relies so much on control and feel would be particularly vulnerable to his spring stats going haywire quickly. Either way, Boyer is unlikely to be a major part of the Braves' 2017 bullpen even after the trade of Shae Simmons.

Both moves are meh in nature. That is to say that neither move will push the needle very much, though the limited commitments won't hurt the Braves any either. That said, adding a 33 year-old catcher and a 35 year-old pitcher during a winter where Atlanta has already picked up a pair of plus-40 pitchers does back up Szymborski's tweet.

Will January Bring a Big Piece for the Braves?

K. Johnson, Spring 2016 By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

January is typically a time where baseball teams are thinking depth. Last January, Atlanta signed Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, Alexi Ogando, and Kelly Johnson in January. The year before, they traded for Manny Banuelos, Ricardo Sanchez, and signed Kelly Johnson. I'm just saying there is a theme and it includes signing Kelly Johnson. Who is currently a free agent. Again, I'm just saying.

Moving along, January of 2015 also had a big move - the Mike Foltynewicz/Rio Ruiz for Evan Gattis trade. Such a big deal relatively late in the process made me wonder - how rare is it to have a potentially franchise-altering move in January?

Well, two years before the Gattis move, the Braves put the finishing touches on the seven-player mega deal that brought Justin Upton to the Braves in January of 2013. In 2009, the Braves signed both Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami to large free agent failures contracts in the first month of the new year. And in 2007, Atlanta traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez. Finally, January of 2002 was a big one and not just because the Braves traded for Kevin Gryboski. Three days before that, they acquired Gary Sheffield.

Most of the time, however, January is a month for finishing touches to the roster. It's a month where you sign George Sherrill to shore up your bullpen or add a stopgap first baseman like Robert Fick or Troy Glaus. When the aforementioned franchise-altering move does happen, it generally is a result of a long negotiation that finally ended in January.

Will this be a quiet January or a surprising one with a big free agent signing or trade acquisition? I must lean toward the former. While a formal budget is not public, Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates that the Braves have committed $110M toward this year's roster. After you add in non-arbitration players, you are looking at around $120 million in payroll. That would be a significant climb over last year's opening day roster ($87M according to Cot's) and around $8 million more than their previous opening day high set in 2014.

Of course, the new ballpark plays a big role here. In 2010, the aptly named newballpark.org found that a new stadium gives a team, on average, the ability to increase payroll by 14% hike. The Braves will blow past that finding if they open the year with a $120 million opening day roster. That would come out to about a 38% increase in payroll from 2016 (according to Cot's). Of course, many have made the convincing argument that the opening day roster in 2016 was intentionally low to spend more richly on amateurs via the draft ($15M or so) and international market (another $15M or so).

Also likely to keep the Braves from spending richly this January is the fact that it's tough to find room for added talent. In mid-December, after the winter meetings concluded, I previewed the 25-man roster. What became very clear was how packed this roster is with options at nearly every position. Aside from catcher, where there is a clear battle between two players to become next year's backup, it's tough to find a potential roster battle where they isn't already five or more players competing for a spot. To add more talent to the mix would only make it even more difficult for the team to award a player with a spot on the roster following a big spring.

Further, considering the hefty prices teams have paid this offseason in trades and for free agents, should the Braves be targeting a big addition anyway?

Nevertheless, here I am - looking at Matt Wieters again. It's been a long offseason for the former Orioles backstop. Baltimore not only passed on giving Wieters a qualifying offer for a second consecutive year, they decided to move on. The Minnesota Twins opted for Jason Castro for $24.5 million rather than show interest in Wieters. Wilson Ramos received a make-good $12.5 million contract. The Nationals traded for Derek Norris.

Other teams seem like potential fits for the catcher, including the Rockies and Diamondbacks, but the one team that has seemed like the logical spot for Wieters during the whole process has been Atlanta. As an up-and-coming team with a less-than-ideal catching situation, the Braves seem like the perfect squad to buy a Wieters lottery ticket.

Of course, much of that is due to Wieters being a southeast guy. He was born in South Carolina and became a star at Georgia Tech. So, theoretically, that makes him destined to play for the Braves at some point. Could that some point be in 2017? It's certainly possible, but realistically, a lot will have to happen to get to that point.

The Braves will essentially need a major bargain with a short-term commitment, possibly just one year. Put yourself in Wieters' shoes for a second. Ignoring everything about how you think Atlanta might finish in 2017, there is a one major problem that might make you shy away from playing in Atlanta. This season will be the first year of SunTrust Park. While there are many theories about how the park will play for hitters, do we really know? Even with the geographic advantages of playing closer to his childhood home and his old college stomping grounds, the thought of an unknown variable like how SunTrust will play has to weigh on Wieters' mind.

In addition, the Braves will have to look at the cons that come with Wieters. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Wieters has slashed .253/.309/.414 with a .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. This is particularly troublesome when you consider his defense - once a calling card - has eroded considerably.

Wieters was once one of the top figures in rSB, or Stolen Base Runs Above Average. That's a long-winded way of saying that rSB looks at how successful the catcher was, compared to the average, at preventing stolen bases. Tyler Flowers was a -7 last year. Wieters was a 0 - or straight up average. That's exactly where he was in 2015 when he came back from injury. To be fair, his numbers started to fall in 2013 and cratered in 2014 before he went under the knife. In terms of DRS, we see a similar fall from grace. Between 2010-12, Weiters had 40 DRS. Since? -8.

And then, there is pitch framing. Since 2012, Wieters has finished below average in each year. Last year, among catchers who received at least 3000 pitches, Wieters finished 38th - right behind A.J. Pierzynski. Teams have gotten the memo over the last few years and now believe that catching defense and pitch framing metrics have a lot of value. Castro didn't get $25 million because of his bat after all.

Despite all of his cons, could the Braves and Wieters match up and could Atlanta go for the rare big January deal? Certainly, but Wieters (and his super agent Scott Boras) will have to accept that the team will be getting what they want more so than the player. He's going to have to take a considerable pay cut to come to Atlanta. When I say considerable, I do mean considerable. Wieters played for nearly $16 million last year. He'll likely have to accept about half of that. Meanwhile, Wieters will have to know that the Braves already have a catcher they like in Flowers and were only signing Wieters because he fell into their lap at the last second. That means the Braves will likely give Flowers a good deal of playing time and with the latter's defensive metrics, the time share may resemble a platoon.

So why sign Wieters at all, you might ask? Because there is a chance in the right situation that his bat plays up once again. While Wieters never reached the hype he had when he reached the majors, he still slashed .265/.319/.420 his first 657 games in the majors - a good slash for any catcher. That includes a .322 wOBA and 97 wRC+. In 514 career games, Flowers has a .232/.302/.384 triple slash with a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Of course, since 2013, Flowers has been better than Wieters at the plate, but the latter still has some promise.

In the end, a love connection between the Braves and Wieters doesn't seem likely. One has to think that the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or another squad I haven't mentioned will send Wieters a better one-year offer than the Braves would be comfortable with. But as the Braves move through the first month, if they are going to strike it big, the smart money is on gambling on Wieters right now.

Braves Searching for Catcher Help, but Options are Thin

Tyler Flowers (By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0],
via Wikimedia Commons)

For so many years, the Braves were absolutely loaded at catcher. Javy Lopez arrived in 1994 and for a dozen years, he was one of the best catchers in baseball. After a brief intermission where Johnny Estrada looked alright, the Braves handed the reigns over to Brian McCann for nine years. Behind the plate, the Braves made other teams green with envy as they tried desperately to find a franchise cornerstone.

It has been another story since McCann's defection to the Bronx after the 2013 season. The Braves handed the job to Evan Gattis, but after a year, Atlanta was ready to move on to a more defensively capable backstop. They went with Christian Bethancourt, but the latter's issues at the plate and work ethic quickly put him in the dog house. Fortunately, A.J. Pierzynski found the fountain of youth to provide some stability at catcher in 2015 after Bethancourt fell on his face. Last year, Atlanta moved on from Bethancourt and added Tyler Flowers. While Pierzynski would stumble, Flowers had his best offensive year. To do so, he apparently sold his soul to do more at the plate because he couldn't throw out anyone trying to steal on Braves' pitchers.

As we pivot toward 2017, the Braves are hopeful to improve this position, but will need to go outside the organization to do so - and even if they do, there's no guarantee they actually will improve.

Before we get there, let's take a look at the farm. The Braves do have some prospects behind the plate and they ought to after using early-round picks on Lucas Herbert and Brett Cumberland the last two years. That doesn't include Jonathan Morales, who was picked nearly 700 picks after Herbert in 2015, and displayed some timely hitting and better-than-advertised defense at times in 2016. Atlanta also acquired Kade Scivicque last season in the Erick Aybar trade and the former 2015 fourth rounder is the closest to the majors. Unfortunately, he's only played three games at Double-A to this point and carries his fair share of questions.

More over, none of the four catchers I just mentioned are better than a C+ grade prospect at this point. Each have potential to be a starter behind the plate in the majors, but none seem too close to realizing that.

So, what do the Braves do? Well, like I said, they do have Flowers for at least another year (plus an affordable option for 2018). They also have a pair of journeyman options on the 40-man roster in Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch. I touched on Recker during my Player Reviews section. Suffice it to say, I have considerable doubts that he'll slash .278/.394/.433 again. Gosewisch was recently picked off waivers and has a career .199/.237/.286 slash with some average pitch-framing metrics. Recker and Gosewisch are a worst case scenario - what the Braves would be left with if they don't add a better option.

But does that option exist on the free agent market and do they reasonably fit into the picture for the Braves? The market is pretty bare, but there are a few names that could be a possibility.

Jason Castro
Possibly the most desired catcher on the market, Castro has a half-dozen teams after him and the Braves appear to be one of the most interested. The amount of interest says more about how little is available than it does about Castro's playing ability. Outside of one big season in 2013, you aren't getting much offense. His triple slash over the last three years is a paltry .215/.291/.369. It should be said that, as a left-handed hitter, Castro does have traditional splits that can be navigated with the right-hand hitting Flowers. Against lefties over the last three years, Castro has a .197/.252/.291 split. While his marks against righties aren't be too exciting (.221/.305/.398), we are talking about a difference in wOBA of 65 points. Also, while we are talking about possible highlights of Castro's game, his defense is outstanding. During the same time frame I just brought up, Castro has the 19th best catcher fWAR almost entirely due to his defense. He also calls a great game and "steals" strikes (catcher RAA of 9, 12.9, 12.8 last three years). That last number ranked fifth last year - right behind Flowers.

There is an issue, however. Remember those handful of teams also chasing Castro? That has a tendency to inflate his salary. How much do you want to pay a guy with a three-year fWAR of 4.2? If you want a reference, Flowers had a three-year fWAR of 2.0 when he hit free agency last winter and the Braves promised at least $5.3M over two years with additional incentives and an option year that could increase the value of the deal (without incentives) to $9M. I'd like to tell you that you could simply double that and promise a third year (3 years, $18M), but that seems difficult to imagine. MLB Trade Rumors predicted, while heading to the White Sox, that Castro would get 2 years, $15M. Let's say the market demands that Castro receive at least 3 years and $22M. Is that too much? How about $28M? Where do the Braves put a cut-off line where adding Castro no longer makes financial sense, even if he does provide considerable value? Castro and Flowers are a fine tandem of catchers who both had a 1.1 fWAR last year. If you put the two together, you get a Salvador Perez (2.2 fWAR) from this year. That's not too shabby provided the price is right.

Nick Hundley
He's a veteran of 746 major league games and I still want to call him Todd. Because Nick's offensive numbers improved a good deal once he came to Coors Field, you might be tempted to pass Hundley off as a product of location and there is some validity to that, but he actually sported better numbers on the road than at home last year (110 wRC+ compared to 55).

A bigger question for me is how Hundley makes sense. Another right-handed catcher, Hundley has a better track record at the plate than Flowers, but not enough to be significantly more valuable. Further, his pitch framing metrics are poor and he only caught 9-of-68 people trying to steal last year. Hundley received $6.2M over two years to head to Denver. Seems unlikely he'll receive less to come to Atlanta and that's a hefty price for a guy who probably shouldn't play over Flowers.

Chris Iannetta
Need a one year option? Consider Iannetta. His game has fallen off the cliff over the last two years, he'll be 34 a week into the season next year, he doesn't have good pitch framing metrics, is a right-handed batter, and...

Actually, you know what. Best not to consider Iannetta too much at this point. He does have good walk numbers and is just two years removed from a .252/.373/.392 slash with a 3 fWAR. Of course, at his age, two years ago for a catcher could be a big deal.

Wilson Ramos
Few options are as boom or bust as Ramos. He was in the midst of a breakout season for the nationals before tearing his ACL. It was his first plus year offensively and was worth slightly more fWAR than the previous three years combined. Before we consider the injury, can he repeat that success? While a 21.4 HR/FB is suspect, Ramos has always carried some high HR/FB numbers as a product of a very high groundball rate. One thing that he did more of last year was to pull the ball more and hit it harder - two very repeatable things. He also showed maturity as a hitter and swung less at pitches out of the zone (along with swinging less in general). This made him less likely to swing himself into bad counts. It should also be said that while Ramos was a rookie back in 2011, he lost significant parts of the next three years due to injury so his development was delayed.

But that's the thing. Last year was the second time in his career that he reached 500 PA. This is actually an issue that has plagued him going back to his minor league days. Can the Braves really go all in on a guy who, while the youngest option on the market, might also be the riskiest? He might be able to play by early summer so that's a plus and while not a gifted pitch framer, he's adequate and if he repeats his offense, his pitch framing numbers aren't quite as important. Personally, I would pass unless his demands came down and he was willing to agree to a contract that protected the team from getting burned by future occurrences of injuries.

Wilin Rosario
Desperate for an option and unwilling to spend big money? Consider Rosario, who hit .321/.367/.593 in Korea last year. Of course, Korea is like a video game on steroids as far as offensive numbers go. There is another issue - he might not be a catcher anymore and might demand a major league deal to leave Asia, where his power is a big deal.

Worth a shot, right? No bad one-year deals, right?

Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Actually, no. If he was a plus defensively, sure, but he's not really that either. Salty has just one season of a 2 or better fWAR and that was in 2013. He hasn't rated positively in pitch framing since 2012. Historically, Saltalamacchia resembles a league average bar against righties, which could make him a platoon option. However, his three-year sample shows a disappearance of a platoon split. At this point, Salty is unlikely to be better than Recker or Gosewisch - just more expensive.

Matt Wieters
Okay, so we all know this story by now. After starring at Georgia Tech, Wieters was the fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft and destined for big things. He was well on his way, though his bat never really looked like much more than league average when injuries wiped out most of his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He returned for 124 games last year and slashed .243/.302/.409. His defense remains a mixed bag. While still good, it's no longer elite and his pitch framing, which was never great, has been below average since 2013.

Unlike last year, the Orioles passed on extending Wieters a qualifying offer, which makes his pathway to Atlanta a little easier to see. MLB Trade Rumors even predicted that Wieters would land with the Braves at an average annual value of $13M a season over three years. Are the Braves that interested? According to Mark Bowman, probably not, but you have to imagine that if Castro's asking price gets too high or he signs elsewhere, they will re-evaluate their position with the remaining top free agent catchers. I find Wieters to be fairly underwhelming, but if his price tag falls, I could be interested.

That's the free agent market - such as it is. Of course, there is also a trade market that could be tempting to try out.

Oakland's Stephen Vogt will likely be discussed and he definitely is an interesting option after finishing off a three-year run where he posted a 5.5 fWAR for the A's. The two-time All-Star is arbitration-eligible for the first time and just turned 32. The Braves could call Arizona about Welington Castillo or Chicago about Miguel Montero, though each would be in their walk year and in Montero's case, $14M is a hefty price for a 33 year-old catcher who hit .216/.327/.357 last year.

There are no real great choices. You can stand pat and hope that Flowers, who posted a wOBA 35 points higher than his career average, was a late bloomer. You can try to catch lightening in a bottle with a one year pact or trade for a 2017 free agent like Montero. You can spend possibly too much money on a multi-year deal for a catcher with clear flaws that are unlikely to go away.

If it were me, Castro would be the only real target (short of the A's selling Vogt short). If Castro gets too expensive, I would stay in contact with Wieters and Ramos and hope that a shallow market brings their price tag down. Either way, it might be best to get used to the idea that Tyler Flowers has a good shot of starting behind the plate when the Braves open the 2017 season in Flushing on April 3.

2016 Player Reviews: Williams Perez, Jace Peterson, A.J. Pierzynski

The World Series is over and free agency is just about to hit in earnest and I'm still trying to finish off these reviews. Hey, progress is progress, right?

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Williams Perez, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the second consecutive year, Perez was in the mix, but injuries limited him to just 84 innings overall. In some ways, that was 84 too many. While he threw a little less than half of the major league innings he threw in 2015, Perez was essentially the same pitcher as far as FIP goes. He was a bit unlucky (58% LOB%) which contributed to an ERA over 6. We also saw Perez change up his pitch selection this season and utilize a four-seamer to keep batters from keying in on his sinker too much.

2017 Projection: The problem for Perez is not new. It has followed him throughout his young career. We know he can throw strikes and induce his fair share of groundballs, but does he have the ability to get the ball past hitters? In the majors, the answer seems to be no. Roughly 10% of all pitches thrown toward hitters become swinging strikes. For Perez, that mark is about 6%. To put that in perspective - over the last two seasons, only six pitchers have 150 innings in the majors and a worse swinging strike percentage. That's not enough to keep a pitcher from being successful, but it certainly doesn't make things any easier. Pitching to contact is not a terrible strategy, especially for a sinker baller, but major league hitters are much better at pounding mistakes than minor league hitters. Perez is a decent depth guy, but short of developing a plus pitch that he can get whiffs on, his value should be limited to emergency starts when he makes the short trip over from Gwinnett.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jace Peterson, 2B, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Year 2 of #JaceOnBase saw Peterson reach base at a much higher rate (.350 to .314) with the help of an improved walk rate (+3.4% compared to 2015). While that pushed Jace's numbers up a bit, he still lagged well behind the major league average for second basemen. It's worth mentioning that his full-season stats include an awful start that prompted the Braves to demote him to Gwinnett after 21 games in which Peterson slashed .182/.260/.205. After returning, Peterson slashed .265/.362/.389 over the remaining 94 games. That's definitely something to build upon. Expected to have a future role as a plus utility player, Peterson picked up a start at third and one in center field - along with nearly a dozen in left field. After solid, though unspectacular, defensive metrics in 2015, Peterson's numbers at second looked pretty ugly. I tend to believe that is more statistical variation than actual performance and I'm comfortable saying that Jace is an average defender at second. Nothing special, but likely not a defensive issue to concern yourself with.

2017 Projection: Peterson is a fine stopgap at second base, especially if the Braves bring in someone to protect Peterson from seeing too many southpaws. Against lefties, Peterson has hit a miserable .214/.269/.268 with just one of his career 13 homeruns. Paired with a better option than Gordon Beckham or Chase d'Arnaud, Peterson could keep second base warm until Ozzie Albies arrives in the majors. The Braves could certainly do better than Peterson, but with Albies hopefully on his way to Atlanta sometime next summer, is it worth the effort to try to improve second base? Probably not, though, like I said, a better platoon partner would be helpful.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, 40-years old

2016 Review: That fountain of youth he found in 2015 dried up in 2016 and the fall from grace was epic. A year after slashing .300/.339/.430, Pierzynski struggled to the tune of .219/.243/.304. He went from a 111 wRC+ to a 41. His wOBA fell nearly 80 points. Eventually, the Braves moved onto Tyler Flowers full-time before sending Pierzynski to the DL. He returned briefly in September, but again hit the DL to end the season.

2017 Projection: Is there much to project? Will he officially retire? He'll have a tough time finding a team at the age of 40 that's interested in a catcher who couldn't even on-base his weight last year. The Braves certainly won't be too keen on a reunion so it would seem to be time for Pierzysnki and the $64 million and change he has earned over his career to head home.

2016 Player Reviews: Joel De La Cruz, Tyler Flowers, Mike Foltynewicz

Hope all of you are surviving the effects of Matthew as it climbs the coast. In central Virginia, it's been rain and a lot of it. Nothing like rainy weather to push you to write some more so let's dive back into the next set of players in the Player Review series. One of the players has already moved on as Jed Bradley, who I wrote about a few days ago, is headed to Baltimore via waivers.

Before I forget, I have updated my options page, which you can view here. Also, feel free to check out the last article in this series or click here for all of the articles in one central place.

*All ages are as of opening day, 2017.

Joel De La Cruz, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: A minor league free agent out of the Yankees' organization, De La Cruz was a veteran of eight minor league season (plus two lost years) before coming to the Braves. His numbers with Gwinnett were pedestrian (4.28 FIP, 1.8 K/BB) and that included two major league promotions. Both times, De La Cruz didn't get into a game. However, with the starting rotation reeling (and Bud Norris soon to be traded), the Braves brought De La Cruz up to stay in late June. Over 22 games, including nine starts, De La Cruz was a bit worse than his Gwinnett numbers (5.19 FIP, 1.7 K/BB) and gave up his fair share of homeruns.

2017 Projection: De La Cruz is one of those guys who might get less of a look now that Roger McDowell has moved on. A three-pitch pitcher, De La Cruz relied heavily on his sinker and though his GB% rate in the majors wasn't very high, it was his M.O. in the minors (1.9 GB/FB rate). The next pitching coach might not stressed sinkers as much as McDowell did, which could make De La Cruz a bit less attractive as a guy to bring back in 2017. Beyond that, he turns 28 next June and this system is deep in options that are more intriguing than De La Cruz. So, with all of that in mind, it wasn't surprising to see De La Cruz outrighted to Gwinnett on Friday. He could be brought back out of familiarity, but again, the Braves might not be that interested anymore.

By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0], via
Wikimedia Commons

Tyler Flowers, C, 31 years-old

2016 Review: This season was so weird for Flowers, who came back to the organization that originally drafted him in '06 last offseason. His .338 wOBA was a career best by 20 points. His triple slash of .270/.357/.420 made him a leader on this offense, especially before the arrivals of Matt Kemp and Dansby Swanson. According to Statcorner, Flowers finished fourth in the majors in pitch framing and would have ranked higher had he not missed time on the DL and shared too much time with A.J. Pierzynski. But...there was that weird caught stealing metric. Flowers was never gifted at nailing potential basestealers. His career-best rate was 33% and he's been around the league average during his career. Until this year. When he caught just three of 63 potential thieves. The other two catchers, Pierzynski and Anthony Recker, weren't great at catching baserunners either, but both looked much better in comparison to Flowers. By all accounts, Flowers wasn't dealing with shoulder issues that should have led to this problem so either it was mental or mechanical.

2017 Projection: Provided the former ChiSox can get his throwing issues behind the plate resolved and produces at the plate again, he'll be a good option for the Braves in 2017 in at least a platoon role. He actually doesn't have a dominant platoon advantage one way or the other, but if the Braves found a left-handed hitting catcher, Flowers could spell the new addition against southpaws. As a starter, he's a stopgap and if he hits like he did in 2016, he's a fairly effective stopgap at just $3M for next season. The Braves will shop for a better option behind the plate, but if it doesn't materialize, Flowers is a decent enough fallback.

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: This season certainly didn't begin the way Foltynewicz would have liked. After a pair of ailments set him back, including a blood clot that prematurely ended his 2015, Folty opened the year with four starts in Gwinnett where he was mostly great, but wild. He was brought back to the bigs in May for six starts before landing back on the disabled list. Of those first six starts, four included outings where he allowed two or fewer runs. His return to Atlanta at the end of June saw him struggle with consistency. He'd dominate the White Sox over seven scoreless with 10 K's before giving up seven runs to the Twins three starts later. The Twins!? But that's kind of expected with young pitchers trying to figure it out. In that aspect, we saw noticeable improvement from Folty. In comparison to 2015, he increased his groundball rate 8% while utilizing his hard slider more. Furthermore, his FIP came down nearly 80 points while his swinging strike percentage also climbed slightly.

2017 Projection: If anyone has joined Julio Teheran on the white board as a member of the 2017 rotation, it's Folty. While some might still be convinced Folty is a better fit in the bullpen, as long as he continues to make strides - like he did this year - I am comfortable with him getting time as a starter. With the dismissal of McDowell, perhaps a new pitching coach can help Folty reach new heights. I really think that if he can develop his changeup to go with his fastball/slider combo that got him to the majors, it will be a stepping stone to a long run in the majors as an effective starter. Love that we saw him induce many more grounders this season. and a 14.5 K/BB% is about 2.5% better than league average. There's a lot to build from heading into 2017. Foltynewicz is in a great place to claim and hold a spot in the starting rotation moving forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to share via social media if possible.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Mallex, Flowers, Teheran, Vizzy

Back by no demand is this week's Saturday Stats Pack. Later on this afternoon, expect a minor league version of this series. Just a reminder that when I use Baseball-Reference Play Index, the data goes back to 1913 in many cases.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

A Different 20/20 Club

No one doubts that Mallex Smith is a fast baserunner, but with a 50% stolen base rate in his first 14 attempts, he has been as much of a problem when taking off as he has been an asset. It got me thinking - what is the most stolen base attempts by a player with a 50% success rate? That honor belongs to George Grantham in 1924, who was caught in half of his 42 attempts. Grantham would never again steal more than 14 bases. Perhaps his manager thought "that'll do." Grantham's 50% mark in at least 40 attempts isn't the worst in history, by the way. That distinction belongs to Pat Duncan, who, in 1922, was caught in 28-of-40 attempts for the Reds.

Another Power Outage Note

Currently, 18 players have at least 100 plate appearances in 2016 and have hit zero homeruns. 22%, or four total, have done their lack of damage with the Braves. They include Erick Aybar, Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pierzynski, and Daniel Castro. If he gets 31 more at-bats before homering, Chase d'Arnaud has a chance to make it five. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Tyler Hits It Hard, Not High

If you are looking for bright spots this year for the Braves, you would find one in Tyler Flowers. While he has had to share time with Pierzynski because the Braves hate nice things, Flowers has slashed .253/.360/.347 in 111 PA. If that doesn't seem great to you, it's probably because it really isn't. If it does seem great to you, then you are probably a Braves fan and you realize that a .708 OPS places Flowers among the top hitters on the team. Flowers has also done a great job putting velocity on the ball. No other Brave can match his 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for a spot in the Top 20 in baseball using MLB Statcast. However, with a level swing, Flowers rarely puts a lot of air under the ball. The average launch angle is just 7.1 feet while the average height is 26 feet, marks that are backed up by just a 31.7% flyball rate. But who cares when he has a 20% line-drive rate?

You Had One Job!

Ian Krol's call-up was met with eye-rolling, but so far - so good. Yes, righties are teeing off him, but the one job Krol was supposed to fill this season after being acquired in the Cameron Maybin deal was to get out lefthanders. In a division with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Christian Yelich among others - having a player capable of neutralizing those big boys to some degree is a must. Krol has done that since being called up from Gwinnett. Of the 20 lefties he has faced, only three have reached first base safely (two singles and a HBP). Eight have struck out. Krol might never develop into a true full-inning reliever, but there's always room in a bullpen for a LOOGY.

Teheran's Unusual "Wildness"

Baseball is a quirky game with a collection of stats - some more enlightening than others. One of the least-informative stats might be wild pitches. At a quick glance, it might tell us that the pitcher is prone to wildness, but that's not always the case. Take Julio Teheran, who has thrown a half-dozen wild pitches so far this year. That not only ties him with Pittsburgh's Jon Niese for the most wild pitches in the National League, but Teheran's six wild pitches tie his career record coming into 2016. Not his personal high, but his total of wild pitches in over 600 innings before 2016. Is Teheran struggling with the zone? Not really. His 2.7 BB/9 is right in tune with his career average and his zone rating of 50.3% (PITCHf/x) is as well. But baseball is weird sometimes so instead of a pitch in the dirty getting away from the catcher with nobody on, now there is a runner on and that player advances.

Arodys Time

I am a huge fan of Arodys Vizcaino. Maybe it's because he's the best reliever Atlanta has and nobody else on the team can match his nastiness on the mound. Whatever the reason, I get excited when I see him pitch. Yet, I still am surprised when I look at the MLB Statcast leaderboard and see just where Vizzy's stuff ranks compared to the rest of the league. Nobody throws a harder two-seam fastball than Vizzy's 98.2 mph average velocity heater. It's the third fastest pitch in baseball in terms of average pitch and carries an average spin rate of 2,358 rpm, which compares well to the best pitches in the league. His four-seamer isn't so shabby either (97.3 average mph & 2,418 rpm).

That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed.

"It feels like every move has backfired."

By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original
version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Today, The Hardball Times published an article by Alex Remington titled "How to Lose Fans and Alienate People: The 2016 Atlanta Braves." It's a long look into the current team, with many fans chiming in with their assorted disappointment. "I hate these guys," one suggests. "You wonder if they know what they're doing," ponders another. And then there is Jim Tremayne, "the editor of DJ Times magazine," who says, "It feels like every move has backfired."

Fans are fanatical because they love the team hard and let their failures cloud their judgement. It's easy to focus on the negative especially when you are essentially writing a column about how awful things are right now. But there is little thought given to the other side of things during the column. Actually, that's wrong. There is NO thought given to what the Braves are doing outside of the things that aren't working.

I get it. A lot of bad things occurring together makes it difficult at times to support the franchise. The move to Cobb County was a curious one given Turner Field's age and the location of the new ballpark, but on the other hand, is anyone making an argument that Turner Field was a benefit for the Braves? Not really. Instead, we are given the old standby that a team from that city should be based in that city. The Giants and Jets don't even play in the state of New York, but somehow, no one cares about that.

The article focuses so much on the negative, but where it really loses me when it suggests that "fans who have been with the team for years may not be with them" when they do start to win and fill up Suntrust again. While certainly some have given up on the Braves for good, most fans will forget their misgivings over this rebuild when the team wins. Every rebuilding team makes the bet that they may struggle with attendance and might even lose some fans in the process, but the result will be worth it. Do you need to watch how fans passionately followed the Royals last fall for that to ring true?

One other small tangent before I focus on my bigger theme. One fan, Chris Nicholson, said that he thought "Bobby Cox cried the day he traded Dale Murphy. Well, okay! That’s my general manager. He feels the way I feel. I think [GM John] Coppolella traded Simmons to show everyone he could do it." Ignoring the absurdity of the last point - and that Remington repeats it - what is ignored is that people are far more cynical than they once were. Since Cox's trade of Murphy and the alleged tears that followed, our society has lived through a Strike, a steroid scandal, the rise of sabermetrics, and that doesn't even get into the things that have robbed us of much of our innocence unrelated to baseball. We don't expect the general manager of our team to cry when he makes a trade. We expect him to do his job and build a better team. By the way, the trade of Simmons does that, but we'll get back to that, I'm sure.

Let's focus on the one quote that really prompted to write this diatribe. "It feels like every move has backfired."

Disclaimer: I certainly realize that the statement is a generalization. It's an exaggeration of events built upon the Braves' failures this year. But that doesn't excuse the statement, only explain it away.

Has every move backfired? Last fall, I went over the many trades of John Hart's first year when he was "in charge." Of course, John Coppolella was mostly responsible for engineering the trades, but Hart had final say. Did trading Jason Heyward and Justin Upton backfire? It made the Braves worse in 2015, but it requires a leap of faith to believe that the Braves would have been able to scratch together a competent rotation to make having Heyward and Upton worthwhile in 2015. Have the deals backfired? Well, Shelby Miller was wonderful for the Braves and was cashed in for three highly valuable players (the article only mentions Aaron Blair and not in a positive light). Mallex Smith is the current starting leftfielder for the Braves from the Upton trade and while we still need to see if the other two prospects from the trade take off (Max Fried and Dustin Peterson), it is difficult to accept that either trade backfired for the Braves. Instead, they have helped the Braves.

Did the Evan Gattis trade backfire? Only if you believe Gattis should be a major league full-time catcher.

How about the Craig Kimbrel move? Matt Wisler's advancement this year and the dominance of Arodys Vizcaino (another trade acquisition) makes that clear. The trade also produced a draft choice, which Atlanta used to draft Austin Riley, and another player in Jordan Paroubeck, who Atlanta later traded for international bonus slots to avoid penalties for their two top pickups last summer from the international signing period.

The better question should be - what moves HAVE backfired? The Hector Olivera one, certainly. And?

Keeping Fredi Gonzalez around? I don't believe that holds water, but I'm struggling to come up with another move that really backfired. You could argue, as the article does, that it's the Andrelton Simmons trade that has backfired based on the play of Erick Aybar. But that implies the trade was made for Aybar, which it wasn't. Was Simmons' contract team-friendly as the article suggests? The point is debatable. From a WAR standpoint, certainly. But the Braves were on the hook for an additional $53 million through 2020 for a player who had hit .252/.301/.357 over his first three full seasons. Certainly, watching Aybar totally forget how to play baseball has been rough, but paying Simmons $6M this year to make a tremendous amount of outs and $47M for the next four years does little to help, either. Oh, and the Braves picked up two good pitching prospects in the trade.

The Braves of 2016 wouldn't have had Heyward and Upton, would be paying large amounts of money to Kimbrel and Melvin Upton, and still would be bad. The only real difference between that hypothetical Braves team and the current one is that the latter actually has a future. Sure, buying heavy into Olivera was a mistake - though it could be made better by whoever Atlanta drafts with the choice they acquired last July from the trade. Bringing back A.J. Pierzynski might have backfired, though adding Tyler Flowers didn't. And neither has - to this point - adding Gordon Beckham. Bringing back Jim Johnson and Eric O'Flaherty - yuck - but those moves get massively overshadowed by the additions of Dansby Swanson and Sean Newcomb to the organization.

Alex Remington sought to talk specially about the major league team in 2016. The problem is that focusing solely on the 2016 team misses the point. The Braves aren't trying to be good in 2016. They are trying to build a long-term successful team that can generate not just talent from their minor leagues each year, but impact talent. I agree that the team built is largely unwatchable. Some of that is awful luck, some of it was bad decisions. Mostly, however, it's that the focus of the organization is currently not on building a competitive major league team. We knew that coming in 2016. Teams interested in being a .500 squad or competing for a Wild Card spot don't include signing Emilio Bonifacio or Jeff Francoeur as their big free agent pickups.

The key to watching the 2016 team is to ignore the win-loss record and focus on the future. If you are going to ignore the minor leagues, that becomes increasingly difficult, but you can still watch Wisler and get excited. You can rejoyce when Mike Foltynewicz throws a good game and "gets it" a bit more. You can watch Vizcaino finally realize his potential that made the Yankees excited about him all those years ago. Julio Teheran is having a solid bounceback campaign and Ender Inciarte is a keeper. Oh, and you have to know that Mallex Smith is going to be better at swiping bases than we have seen so far.

"Diehards" may hate this team right now and certainly it's difficult to watch every game.

A rebuild happened. Whether it was right or not can be questioned, but once the rebuild started, losing perspective on why moves were made will only makes things worse. The Heyward trade was not made for 2016. Neither was the Justin Upton trade, the Gattis move, or even the Simmons trade. If you are a casual fan or even a "diehard" that doesn't consider why the moves were made and what the future can bring, you will hate the team more than you need to.

That's okay, though. More times than not, they come back when the winning does. Jim Tremayne and Chris Nicholson may hate the team right now, but the smart money is on them cheering as loudly as anyone when the winning comes.