Should the Braves Consider Moving Teheran?

Julio Teheran looked like the unquestioned ace of the Big Four pitching prospects the Braves once had churning in the minor leagues. Along with Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino, Teheran was part of a group that would hopefully anchor the Braves rotation for much of the 2010's. Of course, here we are in 2017 and only Teheran remains as a starter, let alone in the Braves staff. And some might argue that we've reached the point where even that needs to change

Such commentary has pushed other Braves fans in a different direction. While more focused on a different pitcher, a frustrated Aaron Kirby remarked on Twitter this morning, "In fact, Julio and Folty have pretty similar stats this season. When are we moving Julio to the pen?" This refers to a common refrain from Braves fans - including ones at this blog - that Mike Foltynewicz profiles better as a reliever. But Kirby rightfully points out that both the flame-throwing right-hander and Teheran share many of the same issues. Why does one get talked about moving to the bullpen and the other doesn't? I would say for a variety of reasons, but the biggest is perception. People have long felt Folty's stuff was better suited for the bullpen. Nobody held the same regard for Teheran, who was considered a potential front-of-the-rotation arm.

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But five years into his career, is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now rather than pay him at least $20M (including a 2020 buyout) through the 2019 season? While many will scoff at the idea out of practice, it's worth considering.

When Teheran signed a $32.4M extension in mid-February of 2014, he was coming off his first full-season in the majors. The deal effectively bought out the remaining five years of arbitration, a year of free agency, and potentially a second year with an $12M option for 2020. Along with the Andrelton Simmons' extension, both were very aggressive moves by the front office as they attempted to get ahead of the horse for what appeared likely to be very expensive arbitration years for the two young players. The plan was to pay them a bit more now but potentially save money later on. In turn, the players received financial security. Simmons would later be traded and while Teheran was often thrown around as a potential arm to be dealt in trade talks, he stuck around as the Braves went into a full rebuild.

Since signing the extension, he's been equally good and bad. In 2014 and 2016, he posted a matching WAR, according to Fangraphs, of 3.2 in both seasons. But then, his WAR fell to 1.1 in 2015 and it's unlikely to even reach that this season. In fact, since he signed the extension, his fWAR ranks just outside the Top 50 qualified starters in baseball at 7.9. That's lower than Tanner Roark, Mike Leake, and Bartolo Colon. It'd likely be lower if not for Teheran's durability. He's tossed the tenth most innings since the beginning of 2014. Nevertheless, the last four years haven't exactly lined up for Teheran like anyone had hoped.

Further, there is a reason to believe his 2016 bounce back season had a little too much luck in it. Lefties had a .247 BABIP against him that season, 35 points below his career average when facing left-handed hitters. His production against lefties has long been an issue that has limited Teheran, who has yet to develop a pitch to keep them honest. In turn, lefties bash him around to the tune of a 5.05 FIP over his career and it's only worsened as time has gone on (5.67 FIP since the beginning of 2015). Nearly 35% of batted balls since 2015 are classified as hard-hit, according to Baseball Info Solutions. To put it another way, a third of all balls left-handed batters put in play are scorched around the park. Some are caught, but too many of them find holes in the defense - or worse, become a souvenir for a fan in the outfield bleachers.

Teheran's problems against left-handers start with one key issue: his fastball loses much of its effectiveness against them. About a quarter of all swings on his four-seam fastball against right-handers are whiffs. That number falls about 10% against left-hand batters. Without a fastball to get ahead in the count, Teheran can't use his secondary pitches to induce weaker contact - or get more whiffs. Further, we don't see much of a drop in whiffs on Teheran's breaking pitches despite how many plate appearances in a game a right-hand hitter might have against Teheran. Against left-handers, his slider and curve see great declines in whiffs-per-swing after the first time through the order. That suggests that after left-hand batters get a read on his breaking pitches, they learn to lay off the ones they can't hit. The ones that they do...well, they don't always land.

Single Season Top fWAR for Braves SP since 2008 

Let's pull back for a second because it's definitely worth mentioning that Teheran doesn't turn 27 until the end of next January. Further, this is a pitcher with a pair of 3-win seasons during his career, something that's happened just nine times over the last decade for the Braves and almost certainly won't occur this year. Ignoring the reasons the Braves gave him an extension in the first place is a disservice to Teheran's time in the majors.

But two other pitchers show up on that list of 3-win guys since 2008 and they should scare Braves' fans - Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Much like Teheran, they were, at different times in their career, expected to front line a Braves' rotation for the next half-decade. And while we can talk about injuries and personal demons, another issue that developed for both pitchers might also serve as a warning sign for Teheran.

Declining velocity doesn't always mean something bad, but it can be a problem for a pitcher moving forward. In his rookie season of 2008, Jair Jurrjens averaged 92.4 mph on his four-seamer and 92.7 mph on his sinker. By 2011, he had lost three mph on both and a year later, he would be non-tendered by the Braves. He's made three starts in the majors since. During Hanson's rookie year, he averaged 92.7 mph on his four-seamer and 92.4 mph on his sinker. During his one 3-win season, he added a tick more velocity on the four-seamer but lost some on his sinker. The added velocity on his four-seamer was gone the next year and in 2012, it fell to 90.7 mph. That was his final year with the Braves. With Teheran, his velocity dropped after his rookie season from 93 mph to 92.2 mph. It stayed roughly the same in 2015, but he's continued to bleed a little velocity off in the two years since. In five years, he's gone from an average 93 mph to 91.9 mph. He's just 26 years-old. Now, the loss in average velocity is not a massive alarming discrepancy, but at his age, losing velocity is something to keep an eye on.

To not be concerned about Teheran's production at this point is to ignore reality. What's worse is that Teheran's struggles might only get worse, depending on how high this peak in offensive production that we are seeing league-wide goes. In 2014, the league ISO was .135 and the wOBA was .310. It's climbed to .172 and .322 respectively this season, prompting many commentators to refer to this year as a sign the ball is juiced again. Teheran has always given up a healthy amount of homers, but with home runs leaving the yard at an increased rate, that makes a pitcher like Teheran especially vulnerable. It's worth mentioning that baseball runs in cycles and just a few years ago, people were going crazy about a "Golden Age of Pitchers."

Could the Braves need, as Kirby also said, a new pitching coach? Well, they went down that route last winter when they sacked Roger McDowell in favor of Chuck Hernandez. It's unlikely that the Braves will shed Hernandez after just one year, though Ken Rosenthal recently suggested some radical moves might be on the horizon by an increasingly frustrated front office.

Let's circle back to those questions I asked earlier: is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now?

To the first question, I think there is a good chance of yes, Teheran is just a durable innings eater. According to Baseball-Reference, Teheran's most similar pitcher through 25 was Scott Sanderson. A veteran of 19 years in the majors, Sanderson got to the bigs at 21 years-old with the Expos and a lot was expected from the right-hander. Ultimately, he never received a Cy Young vote, was named to just one All-Star Game, and started two playoff games in which he got beat around a good deal. Nevertheless, he was a good rotation piece for the Expos and then the Cubs before settling into a more nomadic experience over the final seven years of his career. Essentially, he was the Ervin Santana of his time. Could that be Teheran's future?

Or could he be a starter that does figure it out finally in his later 20's more than he ever had before? Certainly, it's a possibility, but is it one the Braves should count on? Is it one that Teheran has shown much reason to expect over the last three years?

Maybe the best argument against trading Teheran is the one I have made before. Trading him this offseason might be the worst time to do so. His value has taken a big hit this season and moving him now could be considered selling low on a player who, again, has had two 3-win seasons in his young career. General managers can get over missing the right window to trade a pitcher - as Frank Wren did with Jair Jurrjens. What keeps them up at night is trading a pitcher who looks to be on the decline only to see them find it again in a new city while you took back a small return just to get rid of him.

Teheran's Splits vs. LH batters since 2013

The second-best argument against trading Teheran is the same one that one might argue when we discuss moving Foltynewicz to the bullpen. Why move these guys when the rotation isn't exactly pushing them out of the way right now? Inning eaters certainly have value especially in a young rotation prone to outings that require long relief stints. In addition, trading Teheran would have to be part of a series of moves aimed at shoring up the front-of-the-rotation. John Coppolella would have to rebuild the first three spots in the rotation this offseason without Teheran in the mix at an affordable rate.

To sum up, this has been an exercise from someone who's not sure what the answer is. I have decreasing confidence that Teheran will resemble the guy we once thought would headline a playoff rotation. At the same time, are the Braves in a position where they can actually trade Teheran right now? And even if they were, is now the right time to trade Teheran? Did the Braves already miss their window to maximize Teheran's market value and now are better off keeping him for some level of consistency as he eats innings every fifth day? All the while, they are merely hoping to see another unsustainably low BABIP against left-hand batters to increase Teheran's production.

There's no easy answer here. My belief is that the Braves will wait, see, and hope. I guess their fans are left with the same options.

Thursday Throwback - Reed Johnson

Sometimes, moves just don't pan out like they ought to. That was the case of the 2012 midseason trade that sent Reed Johnson, along with Paul Maholm, to the Braves. The trade was born out of a move that didn't happen and ultimately, failed to deliver despite looking like a good deal on paper for Frank Wren. Even when Wren made the right move, it just didn't seem to work.

But long before that trade, Reed Johnson was born a few weeks before Christmas in 1976. A product of Riverside, California, Johnson was a star in both baseball and soccer in high school. His success there landed him a coveted scholarship opportunity with Cal-State Fullerton, where he was an Academic All-American and posted strong offensive numbers as a catalyst for the Titans' offense. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson played well enough during his college years to move into the 17th round of the draft, which is where the Blue Jays took him. The '99 draft wasn't very good for the Jays. They took Alex Rios with their first round pick and he did develop into a decent player, but only three other players made it to the majors, including Johnson, the second-best player taken that year by Toronto.

After a summer of adjusting to pro ball, Johnson became an overnight prospect in 2000. He spent the year at two different A-ball stops and slashed .298/.420/.479, flashing plus-plus plate discipline and enough power and speed to be a very intriguing prospect. In 2001, this time at Double-A, Johnson became a name to watch. Spending the year with the Tennessee Smokies, Johnson slashed .314/.384/.451. The walk total was a bit of a letdown, but Johnson filled out his baseball card with 29 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, and 42 steals. The Southern League All-Star looked like he was a great late-round find for the Blue Jays and a player that could help them very soon.

After missing most of 2002 with injury, Johnson worked his way into the picture for the big league club in 2003. After opening the year in the minors, Johnson would soon establish himself as a major league performer with a strong summer. In 114 games in the majors, Johnson hit .294 with 10 homers and a .353 on-base percentage. The Jays had opened the year with super sub Frank Catalanotto in right field, but an injury to Shannon Stewart opened left for Catalanotto and allowed Johnson to slide into right field. Bobby Kielty would later join the team, cutting into Johnson's playing time, but Johnson proved his worth by being the Blue Jays' most used leadoff hitter.

For the next two years, Johnson was the regular left fielder for the Jays and was unspectacular in his job before a breakout 2006 campaign saw Johnson hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 homers. He led the AL in getting hit by a pitch that season as well. However, his success was short-lived. During an injury-marred 2007 season, he hit just .236 over 79 games. Johnson struggled the next spring as well and with the Jays feeling a roster crush, Toronto surprisingly released Johnson as spring training was nearing its end. The five-year pro would not remain available for long as he landed with the Cubs. A bench bat and platoon player, Johnson was a perfect fit in Chicago. He OPS'd .778 his first season with the Cubbies before slashing .255/.330/.412 during an injury-shortened 2009 season.

Johnson took his talents out west and played for the Dodgers in 2010, which wasn't much of a trip from the city he was born (Riverside). He struggled with in Los Angeles, though, and lasted just one year before returning to the Cubs in 2011. Like he had never left, his success returned.

That brings us to the 2012 season. The Cubs were in the first year of their rebuild under Theo Epstein. The former Red Sox mastermind had just hired Jed Hoyer to be their General Manager. That season, the Cubs were breaking in young Anthony Rizzo at first base (who, interestingly enough, Hoyer had dealt to the Cubs as the Padres' GM) and Chicago was trying to add young talent to the mix to build what eventually would become a winner. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were trying to get back to the playoffs after their 2011 collapse during then-manager Fredi Gonzalez's first year at the helm. The Cubs and Braves seemed like a perfect match and a week before the trading deadline, a deal seemed imminent. However, neither Johnson, nor lefthander Paul Maholm, were part of it.

Atlanta was desperate to add a starter to their team that they could count on. With Jair Jurrjens looking like a lost cause, the Braves had turned to Ben Sheets. 25 year-old Tommy Hanson was struggling and Brandon Beachy, also 25, had made just 13 starts before going down with injury. They still had Tim Hudson while Mike Minor was improving, as a team with playoff aspirations, Atlanta did not have the kind of rotation that would be able to compete against the big boys of the National League. Atlanta thought they had found their man in Ryan Dempster. The former closer had been excellent to begin 2012 with a 2.11 ERA through his first 15 starts. While Dempster wasn't an ace, he was the kind of bulldog starter that gave his manager and general manager a bit more confidence than hoping Sheets could make it through the summer or that Hanson could turn the corner.

Wren and Hoyer found the right mix of players that would make the deal happen. Atlanta would send young Randall Delgado to the Cubs, which would finally separate the four pitchers of the future (Minor, Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino). Another prospect would head to Chicago as well and the Braves would get Dempster. One little problem, though. With over 14 years of experience, including eight full seasons with the Cubs, Dempster qualified as a 10-5 player and could nix any deal. Dempster was open to a trade, but preferred to head out west where he could join his good buddy Ted Lilly and the Dodgers. While Dempster weighed his options - and definitely held out hope for a move to the Dodgers - the Braves grew agitated. All the perimeters were agreed upon and the deal had been leaked out to the public. Wren set a deadline for Dempster, but the right-hander refused to make a decision as he held out hope Los Angeles would step up. Atlanta ultimately took themselves out of the process rather than watch Dempster play the part of the girl with a date to the Prom all lined up, but is still hoping to go with the high school quarterback rather than the dude that actually wants to be with her. Not that I know anything about that...

The Braves still wanted a pitcher, but could not find a Dempster-like arm on the trade market. Instead, they called Hoyer up and asked about Maholm. A long time Pirate, Maholm had joined the Cubs the previous offseason and he was also having a good season. Not a great one like Dempster, but would give the Braves a serviceable left-hand arm for their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves did find their front-of-the-rotation arm by moving Kris Medlen into the rotation.  Coming along for the ride with Maholm and some bags of cash was Johnson. The Braves were stacked in the outfield with rookie Jason Heyward joining Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, but the prospect of adding a right-handed bat like Johnson to pair with Eric Hinske coming off the bench was a great fit. The Braves still broke up their four previously untouchable arms by sending Arodys Vizcaino to the Cubs in the deal along with reliever Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino was on the mend after having Tommy John surgery that spring.

Johnson got into 43 games down the stretch for the Braves and hit .270. He would get fairly regular time with Prado moving all over the field and helped to give the Braves their first real backup option to Bourn during the 2012 season. Both Prado and Bourn would be gone the next winter and would be replaced by Justin and Melvin "B.J" Upton Jr. Johnson, a free agent, liked Atlanta enough to return for a second year. He missed all of August with Achilles tendinitis, but missed even more time because Johnson was not a regular in the mix for the Braves even with the failures of the elder Upton. Instead, Johnson took a back seat to Jordan Schafer, who had returned after being claimed on waivers, and rookie Evan Gattis, who occasionally played left field to get his bat into the lineup more often. Johnson received five fewer plate appearances than Gerald Laird during the 2013 season and Johnson struggled to connect the bat to the ball with any authority.

During his year-and-a-half with the Braves, Johnson hit .256/.308/.332 with one homer, a pinch-hit two-run shot off former Braves farmhand Todd Redmond - then a member of Johnson's first team, the Jays. Johnson would struggle during a 2014 season spent as a reserve in Miami and continued his tour through the NL East with a stop in Washington next. A torn tendon in his left calf limited him to just 17 games with the Nats. He returned to DC the following year, but failed to make the roster coming out of camp last spring. I do not know if he's given up the dream of playing baseball again or not, but at 40 years-old, it seems unlikely that he'll continue his career.

His time with the Braves was short and ultimately uneventful. In the end, like many of Wren's deals, it just never worked like it should have. Of course, the Braves ended up re-acquiring Arodys Vizcaino from this deal so it cost precious little for Atlanta - even if it wasn't the deal they wanted.

Previous Throwbacks...
Mike Mordecai (1994-97)
David Ross (2009-12)
Ryan Langerhans (2002-03, 2005-07)

...or view ALL of them.

Best #61 in Braves Franchise History

(Series Note: Baseball-Reference was used for a collection of players so this series is as complete as their database is. No coaches/managers were included and a number had to have at least four options to be considered with two exceptions. I started from the highest available number because as I approach #1, I'll have much tougher decisions. For the complete series, click here.)

Best #61 in Franchise History

I began this series with the best intentions.

And then #61 came up and I struggled to find anyone to attach the label of "best" to. Throughout the history of the franchise, nine players have worn the old sixty-one and none did so for more than one year. Finding a true "choice" from this group proved quite difficult. Dave Schuler, who broke ground in 1985 by wearing the number the first time, nearly took this decision by default as I struggled to arrive at a better option. At least he was first, right? Sure, nearly half of the 50 batters he faced over nine games in '85 reached base, but he had the guts to wear what seems like a cursed number first.

Damian Moss was mini-Glavine in 2002, but he wore #61 in 2001. Phil Stockman and James Parr shared the number in 2008, but no one was searching the Chop Shop trying to find an authentic Stockman or Parr jersey. The number has been used by a player in each of the last five years - most recently by Tyrell Jenkins. Before him, it was Williams Perez and before that, Chasen Shreve. Back when Braves fans had hope for him, Christian Bethancourt arrived in the majors in 2013 and wore the number. None of these players excelled while wearing #61.

I searched and I searched and then I remembered - this is my list. I don't have to let results decide things for me. Who was the most memorable player to wear #61? Well, to me, that would be the one player I left out.

Getty Images

My choice for the Top #61 is...Livan Hernandez

Unlike pretty much every choice on this list, Hernandez adored the #61. He never played a game in the majors under a different number and that's despite playing for nine different franchises. The Braves were #8 on that list during his 17-year career.

Of course, for Braves fans, Hernandez would be known more for his rookie season in 1997 than his work in 2012 despite the latter being the time he actually spent with the Braves. One of the first Cuban defectors to set the baseball world on fire, Hernandez arrived in the majors to stay in mid-June of '97. He would face the Braves once during his 17-start rookie run in which he was the victor in his first nine decisions. But it was Game 5 of the NLCS that Livan Hernandez truly became a part of Braves' history.

Hernandez pitched in relief in Game 2 of the NLDS during Florida's 7-6 win over the Giants. He also pitched on October 10 during Game 3 of the NLCS and got the victory as the Marlins moved past the Braves 5-2. Hernandez entered in relief and surrendered a sacrifice fly to Javy Lopez that tied the game. A pair of run-scoring doubles by Darren Daulton and Charles Johnson off John Smoltz in the bottom of the sixth put the Marlins ahead and they would sail to the victory.

Hernandez tossed 22 pitches during Game 3. That's why it was a bit shocking that two days later, he got the start in Game 5. The Atlanta Braves offense in 1997 was elite. They finished the season third in the NL in runs scored, fourth in OBP, and second in home runs and slugging. That date, Atlanta had Greg Maddux on the mound facing some 22-year-old kid. In a series that was tied 2-2, this was about as good as the Braves could hope for if they wanted to take the series lead before heading back to Turner Field - then in its first year. The scene was set, but the Braves had not prepared for one final thing - the man behind the catcher. Umpire Eric Gregg.

In the first inning, Kenny Lofton led off things with a triple. The next batter walked, but Chipper Jones and Fred McGriff struck out swinging. With the count 2-2, Ryan Klesko joined the previous duo, except he struck out looking. As did Lofton opening the third. Another player who was just browsing was Michael Tucker in the fourth and seventh innings. Jeff Blauser led off the 8th by staring at strike three. Along the way, the Marlins had scored twice off Maddux, who had struck out nine over 7 innings, including a pair of guys looking in Moises Alou and Gary Sheffield. The Braves had plated just one run off Hernandez - a solo shot by Tucker in the second. That was one of just three hits. They also added two walks. Entering the ninth, down 2-1, Hernandez had 13 strikeouts. Number #14 was Keith Lockhart to open the frame as he went down swinging. After Chipper lined out, it was all up for McGriff. He worked the count full. Hernandez threw a breaking ball that sailed a foot outside. McGriff, who later said the strikezone that day was "a little big," naturally thought he had extended the game and given the Braves a chance to tie things up. Gregg rang him up.

It was the 15th strikeout of the game for Hernandez. During his long career, Hernandez struck out at least ten batters four times. This game was the gold standard for Hernandez followed by an 11-strikeout game and two 10-K games. Of the 143 pitches Hernandez threw that day, 88 were strikes. 37 of those strikes were called - a difference of 13% over the regular season for the number of called strikes to total strikes. Maddux did not benefit from an unusually high number of called strikes - just Hernandez. A deeper look, one that was done by Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan in 2013, shows that the difference may have been in the left-handed strikezone. The Braves that day had six left-handed hitters (including the switch-hitting Chipper Jones) in their lineup. Of the Braves who took a called strike three, only Blauser wasn't a left-handed hitter.

Much like the Bill Buckner game in 1986, despite the Eric Gregg game being our lasting impression of the series, the Braves still had a chance to win the series. Two days later, Kevin Brown outpitched Glavine and the Marlins won 7-4.

Hernandez pitched the game of his life that day - with some help from Gregg. Two years later, he would be traded to the Giants and his nomadic journey would begin. After the Giants were the Expos and he lasted through the move to Washington. Next was Arizona, then the Twins, then the Rockies, and a 23-game stop in Flushing for the Mets in '09. He finished that season back with the Natspos and would play the next two years with Washington. From 1997 to 2011, he pitched in 474 games - all starts minus two relief appearances in the playoffs. But at 37, the jig was up. It was time to extend his career as a reliever and the Braves came calling.

The 2012 Braves had one starter above the age of 25 in Tim Hudson. They were relying heavily on the arms of Mike Minor, Tommy Hanson, Randall Delgado, and Jair Jurrjens. Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen would later fill in, but adding Hernandez was a natural move for depth purposes. The signing would also allow the Braves to use Cristhian Martinez in a higher-leverage role. However, Fredi Gonzalez was never known for using his bullpen properly. The Braves manager began the season by using Hernandez in mop-up situations - the exact reason he was brought aboard. By May, however, Hernandez began to get higher-leverage calls. In a 2-0 game against the Phils with the Braves trailing, Hernandez was brought in to keep it a two-run ballgame. Instead, he gave up two runs. In Colorado two days later, he actually secured his first save after coming in during the eighth of a 12-9 game. After the Braves added a run in the ninth, Hernandez stayed in to get the save.

Rather than be utilized as a long reliever, Atlanta was using him in middle relief and he never looked all that comfortable in the role. Things came to a head against Hernandez's old mates, the Nationals. With the game tied 2-2 in the sixth, Hernandez came in after Beachy hit the first batter of the inning. By the time the sixth was over, it was 6-2 Nats. Bryce Harper would add a solo bomb off Hernandez in the 8th as Hernandez took the one for the team. Hernandez would be buried for two weeks until he got the call in the fifth inning against the Blue Jays with Atlanta clinging to a 4-1 lead and the bases loaded. Three singles and a double later and it was 6-4. Hernandez would give up two homers the next inning to put the Braves down 9-4. He would be cut soon after.

Hernandez finished the season with the Brewers and gave up a combined eleven runs in his final two outings of his career. It would be an unimpressive end to a career that seemed headed to gigantic things during the 1997 NLDS. But, I guess, Eric Gregg couldn't be his umpire every game.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #2

With the 2016 draft tomorrow, it's time to get to the end of this series. Just three more articles remain after this one.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

2nd Worst Draft Since 2000 - The 2011 Draft 

Gilmartin | By Kaotate [GFDL or CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

On one hand, Atlanta's haul in the 2011 draft produced eight major leaguers. On the other hand, the Frank Wren/Tony DeMacio-led approach of cheap, sign-able college players effectively reduced the chance that the Braves would bring an impact player into the system. The 2011 edition would possibly be their worst draft together.

Flash back to 2010. The Atlanta Braves would win 91 games in Bobby Cox's final year and were batting on the young duo of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens to lead their rotation while the also young core of Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and the just-arrived Freddie Freeman would give the Braves a big boost at the plate. The Braves also had high hopes for the foursome of Mike Minor, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado, and Julio Teheran. You could forgive Wren and DeMacio if they felt they had a dynasty on their hands.

Of course, they didn't and the 2011 draft certainly didn't help matters. Their first pick finally came with the 28th overall selection. As they had done two years before, they went with a left-hander out of a big southern college program. But Sean Gilmartin wasn't Minor - who certainly raised his share of eyebrows when the Braves drafted him. Minor's floor was noticeably higher than Gilmartin for one. Gilmartin was a borderline Top 50 player heading into the draft. He was a perfectly fine second rounder, but the Braves played it safe as they had done so often during the Wren years. Either there was an edict that they needed to compete and needed cheap depth players to fill in the gaps rather than hope for the best with an 18 year-old out of high school or the Braves were just flatout missing. Regardless, Atlanta made the choice to knowingly give up on the high reward and play the chances that they have grabbed a high enough floor guy to play in the majors.

They were successful. They also had very bad drafts as a result. 2011 stands out because the Braves not only drafted a college player in the first round once again, they did so in 18-of-the-first-19 rounds. They went with smart kids out of UConn (Nick Ahmed) and Gonzaga (Cody Martin) along with smaller school standouts like Kyle Kubitza and Tommy La Stella. The draft could have just easily been a winner. Instead of Joe Panik or Henry Owens, it was Gilmartin in the first round. Instead of Andrew Susac in the second, it was Ahmed. Instead of Carter Capps, it was Kubitza in the third. Rather than draft Greg Bird in the fifth, they took Nick DeSantiago. Could have had Ken Giles, but took Martin in the seventh.

Is this unfair? You betcha. But 2011 showed just how warped the Braves valued talent in the draft under Wren and DeMacio. I'm not a guy who buries Wren. I think he shoulders too much of the blame. But when it came to the draft, the Braves simply were missing and missing badly.

Here is a sign that something went wrong. The 2011 draft was just five years ago. Nobody from the draft remains the system. Some, like Gilmartin and Martin, were given away. As was J.R. Graham, who the Braves lost voluntarily in the Rule 5 draft. Kubitza and La Stella were traded for arms with higher upside. John Cornely and Gus Schlosser were sent packing. As was Ahmed, though at least he was a piece that helped the Braves acquire Justin Upton.

If a year stands out as a reason to not play it safe and draft for need, it's 2011. The Braves got exactly what they sought - good bets to make it to the majors. Eight of them did that - so far. But their roles in the majors reflect the conservative draft philosophy the Braves followed. Each player that has made it to the bigs has little chance of developing into much more than they were when they were drafted.

Random Former Prospect Sunday - J.R. Graham

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.

Bruce Hemmelgarn/Getty

There was a time where Braves fans penciled J.R. Graham's name into future rotations. A right-hander with three quality pitches including a mid-90's fastball, Graham reached Mississippi just a year after the Braves grabbed him in the 4th round of the 2011 draft. He was a big asset in a system with a dwindling amount of pitching prospects once the Big Four of Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino either made it to the bigs or were traded. But...that's how far the story goes. Well, with the Braves at least.

Originally selected in the 46th round of the '08 draft by the A's, the California-born Graham decided to attend Santa Clara University instead. The Broncos have produced a lot of draftees (160 total), but only three have gone on to have a 10 WAR or better career according to Baseball-Reference with Randy Winn their most notable player. The last time the Braves selected a player from Santa Clara was back in 1990 when they selected generic infielder Ed Giovanola. But in 2011, Graham was still available for the Braves in the 4th round. The #146th overall pick was ranked by Baseball America as the 120th best prospect heading into the draft so that was good value for Frank Wren's team.

After signing, Graham blitzed the APPY League over nearly 60 innings. He carried an impressive 4 K/BB ratio and gave up no homers in that time frame. His maturity and quick success prompted the Braves to push Graham past Rome so that he could start 2012 with the Lynchburg Hillcats. It worked rather well. In 17 starts, he duplicated his 4 K/BB rate in a bigger sample size (102.1 ING). His K's fell, but so did his walks. He pitched well beyond his years and it almost seemed like he had yet to be challenged. Atlanta sought to solve that by promoting him to Mississippi to finish the year. The Braves under Wren often attached accelerated timetables to the college pitchers they selected and Graham was no different. With about 205 innings under his belt, he was just a step away from the majors.

At that time, Graham had an impressive collection of pitches with a mid-90's fastball that had heavy sink on it. He kept hitters off balanced with a nice change-of-pace plus a swing-and-miss slider. If he could only stay healthy, he was going to remain a big part of the picture for the Braves.

Ah, but there's the rub. 2013 was an eight-start shortened season where he dealt with shoulder issues, which caused his velocity to tail off. Going through adversity is not uncommon for Graham. He was born three months prematurely at just 2 pounds. He even stopped breathing in his father's hands before being revived. Graham fights for every little thing he achieves and plays with a chip on his shoulders. An aggressive hurler, he earns the reputation as a bulldog. Now that he had control of his stuff, he wasn't going to let an injury keep him down for long.

Unfortunately, his body disagreed. While theoretically healthy during much of 2014, shoulder problems are a very difficult thing for a pitcher to shake. The Braves tried to baby him, giving him a strict pitch limit to keep his innings down. He didn't reached 70 pitches until his tenth start and after a good start to his season, his numbers began to decline. Graham would miss nearly a month of baseball before a late July return. After four brief starts, he moved to the bullpen and didn't have much success there either. All told, he had a 5.58 ERA in 71 innings with a 1.9 K/BB rate.

After the season, the Braves and their new front office had some Rule 5 decisions to make. They chose to protect Yean Carlos Gil and Williams Perez over Graham and Cody Martin, another successful ex-college pitcher. While Gil would later be designated for assignment, keeping Perez turned out to be the right move as he would start 20 games for the Braves in 2015. Martin would pass through the Rule 5 draft and briefly looked good in the majors before being shipped out in a trade. Graham didn't last nearly as long. The Twins selected him in the Rule 5.

A full-time move to the pen and a good offseason returned a lot of the velocity Graham had been missing. He was back in the mid-90's with max speeds of 98 mph. A lot of people were upset with the Braves for letting him go for nothing. His early success with the Twins gave their disappointment more validity. After 1.1 innings with a K against the Reds on July 1, Graham had a 2.92 ERA over his first 22 games and 37 innings. The walks (11) were a bit high and homers (6) stood out, but he was showing some good things. He even made a spot start against the Brewers on June 6, going 4 innings and allowing a run on a homerun. However, things got ugly after July 1. Over his final 17 games, he gave up 23 runs in 26.2 ING. Relegated to only low-leverage innings, he pitched sparingly over the final weeks especially with the Twins trying to stay alive in the Wild Card race. He also missed a little time toward the end of August with shoulder troubles.

Much was made about the Braves' decision to not protect Graham. Most of this is attached to fans overvaluing their team's prospects. The Braves had a pitcher who, while clearly talented, was being sidetracked by shoulder issues. In today's modern medicine world, it's just a reality that it's easier to fix ligament damage than shoulder trouble. The Braves made that point clear by picking Daniel Winkler in the same Rule 5 draft where Graham went to the Twins. Winkler, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, was viewed as an asset to bet on versus Graham.

The Twins now don't have to feel the need to keep Graham in the majors to satisfy the Rule 5 rules so we might see Graham back in the minors when 2016 opens. Always the fighter, it's easy to root for Graham. But the chances that the Braves will regret losing him are pretty slim.

Previous Random Former Prospects...
Elvis Andrus
Bobby Smith
Bubba Nelson
Neftali Feliz
Gorkys Hernandez
Matt Belisle
Matt McClendon

Once a Brave, Always a Brave - NL West

This week's return to Once a Brave focuses on a division with a lot of ex-Braves. The Braves have completed two deals with the D'Backs since March, two with the Dodgers since May, one with the Rockies, and a pair of pretty big deals with the Padres. Therefore, we have a lot of NL West guys to check in on. As usual, this list is not exhaustive and if you catch a player I missed, feel free to let me know.

Arizona Diamondbacks
P Randall Delgado - No longer even a consideration to start, Delgado just recently went to the DL with a sprained ankle. Before that, he had a 2.76 ERA, though other metrics aren't as impressed (3.71 SIERA).

C Gerald Laird - He played in one game this before hitting the DL because of his back. Five months later, he's still there.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia - This is Salty's second stop this year after the Marlins showed him the door. He has an on-again, off-again relationship with the Mendoza Line since coming to Arizona which, amazingly, is an improvement. He's just 30 years old.

2B Philip Gosselin - He remains on the shelf, though I imagine a rehab stint is coming soonish.

SS Nick Ahmed - It's astounding that the Diamondbacks, who have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot, are sticking with Ahmed at short. But hey, he did go 4-for-4 yesterday to increase his OBP from .280 to .289. In Arizona's defense, Ahmed is a pretty stout defender at shortstop.

3B Brandon Drury (AAA) - Of all the guys the Braves traded to the Diamondbacks two years ago, Drury was the guy I immediately wished could have stayed with Atlanta. Yes, I was more okay with getting rid of Martin Prado than Drury. On the year, Drury is hitting around .300 with just four homeruns while moving from AA to AAA more than a month ago. He's coming off a .299 season with 23 HR.

Colorado Rockies
P Yohan Flande - The Dominican lefty pitched for three years in the Braves system and logged 95 games with the organization - all but one with Gwinnett - and during the 2012 spring training, Flande looked like he might be first in line to fill the void created by Jonny Venters' injuries. However, the Braves sent him back to Gwinnett. That's about as close as he ever came to pitching for the Braves. He's appeared in 25 games over the last two seasons, including a dozen starts, for the Rockies and hasn't been all that bad (3.90 FIP).

P David Hale - I never liked Hale much as a Brave, but I still wouldn't wish a groin strain on him, but that's why he hit the DL after his last outing. That outing was a win in relief. Against the Braves. Yeah, whatever. Hale recently stunk in a rehab start and has a 5.69 ERA this season for the Rox.

P Jair Jurrjens (AAA) - Yep, he's still around and he has been putrid this season for Albuquerque (6.68 ERA in 14 games, 13 starts). He turns 30 next January, but the the 2011 All-Star has only thrown 65 innings in the majors since the end of 2011. He's got a 7.20 ERA when he has been used.

P Gus Schlosser (AA) - Schlosser has had such an interesting career. He was so good in 2013 and parleyed that into a good run the following spring to earn a spot in the pen. The results weren't all that pretty...in fact, they were pretty bad, but Schlosser did accomplish something kinda cool. He got a hit in his only plate appearance. He was non-tendered after the year for "reasons," but the Braves snatched him back up before trading him with Hale to the Rockies. Love ya, Gus!

Los Angeles Dodgers
P Bronson Arroyo - Is there some kind of record for number of teams whose DL's a player has been on in one year?

P Luis Avilan  - He's still waiting to make his first appearance. His last outing with the Braves was against the Orioles when he surrendered an extra-innings walk-off homer.

P Brandon Beachy (AAA) - It was a cool story that Beachy made it back, but after two starts, he was DFA'd as a result of the moves the Dodgers made. He decided to stick around the Dodgers' system.

P Trevor Cahill (AAA) - Did the Dodgers sign every ex-Brave? Cahill stunk and is still getting a decent amount from the Braves to be awful in AAA. Aces!

P Caleb Dirks (AA) - Don't look now, but the Juan Uribe trade may ultimately hurt a little. Dirks, who was picked up in the 15th round last year, started this year in Rome and has added time with Carolina, Rancho Cucamonga, and most recently - Tulsa. His ERA is under 1.00 for the year with well over a K an inning.

P Juan Jaime (AA) - Not news: Jaime can't stop walking people.

P Jim Johnson - In his first game, Johnson did exactly what he did in his final game with the Braves. He gave up a run. A home run to be exact which led to the Angels tying the game up in the 8th. Starting the game for the Angels was Cory Rasmus. Former Braves everywhere!

P Eric Stults (AA) - On the bright side, Stults, who joined the Dodgers as a AA pitcher, had made it back to AAA. I don't think I used "bright side" correctly. Unfortunately, because Beachy came back to AAA, Stults got pushed back to AA. Whole world is unfair.

P Ian Thomas (AAA) - The former independent league pitcher got his first major league start with the Dodgers earlier this year. He's been up a couple of times for the Dodgers, but mostly has been pretty bad in Oklahoma City.

P Alex Wood - On the night Jimmy Rollins returns to Philly, there won't be much of a spotlight on Wood, but he'll make his Dodgers debut against the Phils tonight. Former Brave Jeff Francoeur has had some luck against Wood in his career.

2B Jose Peraza - The former Braves top prospect has already added a homerun during his Dodgers organization run, his fourth overall of the year. He had five coming into this year. It's going to be interesting to see if Peraza sticks with the Dodgers long-term. With Howie Kendrick and Rollins free agents, the Dodgers could consider a Peraza/Corey Seager combo up the middle.

3B Alberto Callaspo - How does this guy stick around? He's OPS'd .609 since the trade.

San Francisco Giants
P Tommy Hanson (AAA) - Yep, he's around. In fact, there might be a game this year where Jurrjens and Hanson face one another. It's like the "What If" Bowl. Or maybe the "remember when these guys were our future?" Of course, that's under the belief Hanson doesn't get cut beforehand because he has been lit up in his first five starts with Sacramento.

P Tim Hudson - His back or his shoulder or his toe hurts so he's on the DL because it's fun to blatantly use the disabled list as a place to stick veterans when you don't have room for them. He wasn't that good before the "injury" and will retire at the end of the year.

IF Brandon Hicks (AAA) - A former 3rd rounder by the Braves out of Texas A&M, Hicks made it to the majors in 2010-11 with the Braves, but was extra-strength bad in a small amount of at-bats. After a stint in Oakland, he had a small run last year before reality set in. He's missed most of this year, but recently made it back to the active roster.

OF Gregor Blanco - He just keeps plugging along and has kept his OPS close to .800 this year. Pretty good year for a guy who was one traded for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth.

San Diego Padres
P Craig Kimbrel - His strikeout numbers are a little down (3.5% from last year) and a .289 BABIP has made him a little more hittable than usual. Still, while this could easily go down as his worst season, he's posted a 2.22 SIERA and 2.49 xFIP. I'd say that's still pretty good.

P Aaron Northcraft (AAA) - Also known as half of what the Padres got for Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Max Fried. Northcraft once threw a seven-inning no-hitter for the Lynchburg Hillcats in 2012, but never seemed to be a guy the Braves consider a real player in their system. He started this year in El Paso and stunk. A trip back to AA was successful, but he's been hit hard in his return to El Paso. He won't give up a lot of homers even in the Pacific Coast League due to his downward movement, but that won't stop hitters from reaching.

IF Ramiro Pena (AAA) - He's been an everyday player in El Paso where he has hit .312 this season while logging time at three infield positions. Because San Diego is who they are, Pena can't find a spot on the roster that has graciously given 264 PA to Alexi Amarista and his magical .576 OPS.

OF Justin Upton - He got off to a good start, but his overall numbers are pretty sad - even though he has been great at swiping bases. Upton turns 28 this month and has a good chance to enter free agency with his second sub-.800 OPS in the last four years. His free agency case will be interesting to watch in case someone overspends for potential over results. Amazingly, he's been great at Petco (.911 OPS) and awful on the road.

OF Melvin Upton Jr. - He's hitting better with the Padres than he ever did with the Braves. He's hitting .218. That said, getting his walk rate back to his days with the Rays has upped his OBP over .300 for the first time since 2011. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR this year. His fWAR with the Braves - 0.3. Slacker.

Random Prospect Sunday - Felix Marte

In 2011, the Braves brought a group of prospects to Atlanta in mid-September to honor their Pitchers and Players of the Year. Julio Teheran was there. As was Mike Minor and Andrelton Simmons and Evan Gattis. Jose Peraza had not yet made his state-side debut, but he was there. So was Tyler Pastornicky, Randall Delgado, and Zeke Spruill. Lost among this pretty amazing group of young players was the honoree as the Player of the Year for the Gulf Coast League Braves. He lacked the prospect stardom of the young pitchers like Teheran, Minor, and Delgado. He wasn't a fun little story like Gattis and nobody wondered how far his glove would take him like Simmons. He wasn't even riding one amazing minor league season like Joey Terdoslavich, the system's Player of the Year. No, Felix Marte was just a boom-or-bust guy.

Three years later, he was no longer eligible for Player of the Year honors. You see, the only way Marte gets another trip to Atlanta to be honored for his minor league numbers is as a Pitcher of the Year for any club. But that's how it goes sometimes.

Credit: comc.com

Born in mid-November of 1990 in the Dominican Republic, Marte joined the Braves system as a 2007 signee with Teheran. The 17 year-old only played 21 games in '08 in the Dominican Summer League and was an after-thought on a team with Christian Bethancourt. Marte began his career in the infield, but soon moved to the outfield for good after booting 9 of 34 chances at shortstop. He would play two more years in the DSL and improved his numbers in both seasons. He may have even impressed some on-lookers in 2010 when he hit .269 with a .823 OPS that includes 26 extra-base hits in 58 games.

With 125 games already under his belt as a professional, the Braves felt it was sink-or-swim time for Marte in 2011 and brought him state-side. He played in the Gulf Coast League and hit well enough to advance (.269/.354/.431), though nothing stood out in his numbers. It was worthy enough of Player of the Year honors in the Braves system for GCL, but the only player who may have been better for the gig was Will Skinner, who hit .300 with 4 HR in 22 fewer games.

The Braves tried to push the situation as Marte was already entering his fifth professional season and pushed him to Rome to open the 2012 season. He struggled in 36 games, hitting .231 and earning this atrocious rate - 4 BB/50 K. The Braves backed off, demoting him to Danville where he waited for their season to open following the draft. He rebuilt some of his value back with a .262/.338/.439 slash for the D-Braves, though you'd like to hope someone with four years of experience who was just about the same age as the rest of the league would do better if he had the potential.

That led to the make-or-break season of 2013. Back at Rome to open the season, he homered in his fourth game - something he failed to accomplish in the 36 game run during the 2012 season. However, that was one of just three homers over the entire year for Marte. He did add nine triples, but finished the year with a .241/.296/.355 slash. He wasn't even able to start slow, but finish strong. He hit lefties better than righties, but not enough to call him a lefty masher.

Naturally, the Braves weren't anxious to bring back Marte for a seventh year to re-inforce what they already knew. His bat just couldn't cut it. So why not try the mound instead? I don't know if the Braves pushed it or Marte suggested it. But either way, he returned to Danville to open 2014 as a pitcher. In ten games and 12.1 ING, Marte struck out nine and posted a 1.05 WHIP. He was a free agent heading into last offseason, but the Braves worked to bring him back and he made his return to Rome to open this season. Coming into Saturday's games, Marte had received a call to pitch five times and in 7.1 ING, he had yet to allow an earned run. He had walked five and struck out four.

Finding scouting reports for non-draftees isn't easy. It's especially hard for outfielders who were moved to the mound in 2013. I can assume he's got some intriguing movement and/or velocity. There's got to be something there for the Braves to even put the time and resources into helping him reach new heights on the mound. We'll see if he becomes an interesting story as the season progresses.

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