Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:

• Stay Healthy  
• Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).

Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers

• Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
• *Arodys Vizcaino
• Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
• Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
• Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
• Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
• Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.

Current Minor Leaguers

• *Manny Banuelos
• *Josh Outman
• Brandon Beachy - 8 innings in MLB since with 7.88 ERA
• Kris Medlen - 82 innings in MLB since with 5.99 ERA, but had a dominant outing with the Florida Fire Frogs a few days back.
• Jonny Venters - 3 TJ surgeries (maybe 4?) no MLB innings since 1st surgery
• *Andrew McKirahan
• *Jesse Biddle
• *Max Fried
• *AJ Minter
• Brady Feigl- traded, pitching well in High-A for Texas
• *Jacob Lindgren
• Chris Withrow - released mysteriously, but hasn’t made it back to field. 37.2 innings of decent relief.
• Shae Simmons - briefly pitched in Atlanta last year, traded.
• *Daniel Winkler
• David Peterson - Had TJ surgery in 2013, has had relative success in the Braves minor league system.

Retired Major Leaguers

• Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
• Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.

Not currently affiliated with any team

• Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
• *Paco Rodriguez
• Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues

Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Monday Roundup: Bullpen Usage, Rotation Comparison, Missing Alex Wood

Welcome to this week's Monday Roundup. WOW is improving in its content delivery as this weekend saw a number of articles. Going to continue the trend moving into this week. If you haven't already, check out new contributor Ryan Cothran's first article about BABIP.

May 8: Off

May 9: 8-3 LOSS at Astros
Bartolo Colon was saddled with a five-run first and this game was essentially done. Colon did work into the sixth, but gave up three more runs and was removed after an eight-run barrage over 5.2 ING. It was the first time since last July that he surrendered three homers in a game. Sam Freeman worked 2.1 innings in relief to close out the game. Matt Kemp had a two-hit game.

May 10: 4-2 LOSS at Astros
Jaime Garcia was flirting with disaster until a three-run fifth was his undoing. He went six innings and did walk five. He also gave up six hits, including three doubles, and struck out four. Jason Motte and Arodys Vizcaino each worked a scoreless inning in relief. The Braves got both of their runs in the fourth when Freddie Freeman led off the frame with a game-tying solo bomb, his 12th, and Adonis Garcia hit a two-out shot later in the inning. It was his fourth homer, but the Braves couldn't add on.

May 11: Off (again (for reasons))

May 12: 8-4 WIN at Marlins
For a change, it was the Braves turning a game into a blowout in the late innings. In the seventh inning, with the score 2-1, the Braves offense consisted of an HBP, three singles, an intentional pass, and two unintentional walks. By the end of the inning, the Braves had plated six. Tyler Flowers was a big part of the frame as he got the rally going the hit-by-pitch and singled in two runners to close put a bow on the frame. Earlier in the game, the catcher also blasted a two-run homer, his first homer of the year. Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp both had two-hit games to join Flowers. Mike Foltynewicz started and went six innings. His changeup was working better than it had all year and he worked around a half-dozen hits - but no walks - to give up just one run. Ian Krol was picked on for two runs and Jim Johnson gave up a solo shot, but the Braves were never seriously threatened after the seventh.

May 13: 3-1 WIN at Marlins
Julio Teheran turned back the clock to Good Julio with six scoreless innings. He left with a 2-0 lead and the Marlins cut into that lead, but ultimately fell in the game. Nick Markakis had a three-hit night while Freddie Freeman doubled twice and scored two runs. Eric O'Flaherty gave up a solo bomb, but Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson shut the door from there.

May 14: 3-1 LOSS at Marlins
The Braves were rolling toward a sweep and then R.A. Dickey failed to get a call. Shortly after that, Tyler Moore, who spent time in the Braves system last year, hit a three-run pinch-hit bomb. The 1-0 lead was gone and the Braves failed to secure the sweep. Dickey had his best game as a Brave going before the Moore blast. He worked seven innings and walked three, but did all he could. He was hurt by a woeful effort on offense in which the Braves left a dozen runners on base and went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. Only a single by Nick Markakis which scored Ender Inciarte kept the Braves from being shut out. Inciarte was on base three times with two singles and a walk.

This week: 2-3
Season: 13-21, 9.5 GB, 5th Place

Upcoming Schedule: No random off-days await the Braves, but they do open the week with a four-game series with the Blue Jays that includes two games in Toronto before both teams head to Atlanta to conclude the series. The Braves end the week with a three-game set against the Nationals. The getaway game in Toronto on Tuesday will be a random 4:07 EST start while the Saturday game will also be a late 4:10 start. Sunday's game is a typical day game that begins at 1:35. If you want to attend a game this week, try Sunday's. As a Alumni Sunday, you get a chance to meet and secure autographs with some former Braves players include the Hall of Fame knuckler Phil Niekro, Chris Chambliss, Gerald Perry, and Terry Harper.

Three Last Things

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

1) Modeling After the Reds

No big league team has more bullpen innings than the Cincinnati Reds. With an 8-3 loss in yesterday's game, they are up to 153 innings on the year. Yet, the Reds are below the major league average in number of outings by their bullpen? How does that happen? The Reds are taking advantage of a bullpen with several recent starters. As Craig Edwards pointed out last month at Fangraphs, the Reds are doing something special with their pen in which they rely more on young arms that have recent starting experience. Raisel Iglesias started 29 games between the minors and bigs the last two seasons. Michael Lorenzen was a full-time starter in 2014 and 2015. Robert Stephenson is a reliever for the first time. The Reds, despite living in a National League environment, aren't going through their bullpen before the ninth inning to get one or two outs per pitcher. Rather, they are asking their pen to get four, six, or even more outs.

Could the Braves follow suit? You bet they can, but it will require some changes to the roster makeup. Right now, only Josh Collmenter has been used to get multiple outs and many of their relievers are unlikely to be ready to be used in that type of role. The current core of Jose Ramirez, Jim Johnson, and Arodys Vizcaino will remain in place, but might the Braves opt for Lucas Sims and/or Sean Newcomb rather than Jason Motte and Sam Freeman? I realize starting their clock early for bullpen work might not be advisable, but I'm not trying to turn them into set-up relievers or specialists. I want multiple innings out of them.

It's a thought - one in which the Braves ought to entertain.

2) Braves Second in the Division in Starting Pitching ERA

With a big hat tip to Braves Options Guy for this, but for all of their troubles with the starting rotation, the Braves are actually second in the division in starting pitching ERA.

Don't get too happy about that, though. The difference is nearly a run between the Nats at 3.77 and the Braves at 4.71. The Phils, Marlins, and Mets are among the four worst pitching teams according to ERA in baseball with the Braves standing pretty at sixth worst. Now, to be fair, the Braves are worse than all of their division mates in FIP and fWAR. Still, it's always worth mentioning the positives - if you call "at least others are worse" a positive. Considering the Braves are on pace for a hundred losses, any positive is worth a little digital ink.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

3) The Worst Deal is Looking Worse

Ask a Braves fan to come up with the worst deal completed under the John Hart/John Coppolella regime and even if they disagreed with the rationale of other deals, most Braves fans would come to an agreement on which deal was extra strength terrible. That would be the Hector Olivera trade. Less than two years later, it's only gotten worse.

Alex Wood was starting to struggle with the Braves in 2014. His fastball lost velocity and his K's tumbled. Including him in the deal seemed like a smart "get what you can" effort. Since the trade, Wood has found himself - and a good 3-4 mph on his fastball. Some of that may be due to the new Statcast system, but not all of it. His sinker has been especially good this season. He's spotting it for strikes a lot better than he did toward the end of his Braves tenure and with the added velocity, getting 2-4% more whiffs on his most used pitch.

Even without Wood pitching as well as any pitcher in baseball, the deal was a black eye. For Wood and Jose Peraza, the Braves had precious little to show for it. That's not including Luis Avilan (2.71 FIP with the Dodgers) and paying the Dodgers to carry Bronson Arroyo. The Braves received Paco Rodriguez, who they cut this spring, and Zachary Bird, who they lost in minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Now, they did get Austin Riley and he still might make it to the bigs, but if he doesn't, the Braves will continue to use the Olivera trade as a cautionary tale.

Of course, Atlanta did turn Olivera into Matt Kemp so there's that.

Braves Bring Back the Meds

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

In 2013, the Atlanta Braves had finally come together. Frank Wren's team was young - Dan Uggla was its only starter over 30. Frank Wren's team was also very powerful and bashed 181 homers led the league. Sure, they struck out a lot, but they also scored runs in bunches.

But lost in all of the feast-or-famine articles about the Braves' offense was its fine pitching staff. While Brandon Beachy would miss most of the season, the Braves got breakout years from Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. Young Alex Wood also pitched in, which became important when Eric Young Jr. shattered Tim Hudson's ankle one night in Flushing.

The 2013 Braves also had a righty who had finally stayed healthy all year and earned an every-fifth-day assignment in the rotation in Kris Medlen. "Meds" had been lethal down the stretch in 2012 after finally receiving a late promotion to the rotation. The Santa Ana College alum followed it up with career highs in most categories in 2013.

But then, like Breachy, Medlen would not make it out of the 2014 spring training before needing a second Tommy John surgery. It was the first couple of dominoes to fall in what would be a franchise-altering season. Wren would be fired and a rebuild would be ordered - one that would not include Medlen, as he was non-tendered after the 2014 season.

There was some hope the Braves might bring him back, but two weeks after Atlanta cut him loose, the Kansas City Royals promised him $8.5 million to come to the midwest. His rehab took a long time, but Medlen finally returned to the majors on July 20, 2014. He had a few stinkers mixed in over a 15-game run with the Royals, but still pitched his way onto KC's postseason roster. He would pitch twice - once as a long reliever after Johnny Cueto got blasted and the other time in KC's World Series Game Three loss to the Mets.

The hope was that Medlen would stabilize a Royals' pitching staff in 2016 that would lose Cueto and was thin beyond newcomer Ian Kennedy, veteran Edinson Volquez, and young Yordano Ventura (may he rest in peace). Instead, Medlen would struggle over six starts - especially with uncharacteristic wildness. His shoulder was hurting, which put him on the shelf He made a pair of comeback attempts, but was never able to get back to the Royals. His final outing of the year included retiring just one of the five Oklahoma City Dodgers he faced before being lifted with a line of 0.1 ING, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER.

Let's try to compare the Medlen the Braves loved so dearly with the Medlen whose 2017 option was declined by the Royals. Pitch-wise, little has changed as far as usage and velocity go. He relies heavily on a low-90's sinker, throwing it 38% of the time last year. In fact, when you combine his four-seamer, about every other pitch on average is a fastball. He'll supplement that with a biting curveball that flutters to the plate at about 78 mph along with a changeup that has averaged 2-3 ticks faster since leaving Atlanta. He started to use a cutter toward the end of his Braves' stay and used it a lot more last year to mixed results.

One clear difference in Medlen since leaving Atlanta is related to release point, which the chart to the right shows courtesy of Brooks Baseball. In 2013, the ball was between roughly 5'9" and almost 6" feet off the ground when Medlen released the ball. Once he returned in 2015, he was releasing at more of a lower 3/4's rather than the high 3/4's of 2013. As a sinker-baller who depends on controlling the ball low-in-the-zone, not being able to get on top of his pitches won't help his effectiveness.

Medlen is a nice lottery ticket for the Braves to add - even as a relief option rather than a starter. If they can straighten his mechanics and get him to drop his changeup from the 84-85 mph range, it would be a big boost. Whether it was losing feel, the different arm slot, of Royals' coaching, Medlen lost his best pitch when he left Atlanta. In 2012, his changeup had a 16.6 wCH as far as pitch value goes. He didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title so he didn't make the lead leaders list, but that pitch value would have ranked second. The next year, his breakout starter campaign, his changeup had a 12.6 wCH pitch value. That ranked sixth. It was his one true dominant pitch and it's been worth -2.4 since. That has to change.

At his best, Medlen can fool hitters with his fastballs and changeups and go to his curveball for strike outs. We haven't seen that version of Medlen since 2013. If the Braves are lucky, we could see it again in 2017, though it won't be until midseason at the earliest. Until then, it's nice to hope.

2016 Player Reviews: Jose Ramirez, Anthony Recker, Paco Rodriguez

This is the eleventh edition of the 2016 Player Reviews. My quick math tells me that I've done 33 little blurbs about players from last year's team who could return in 2017. A dozen remain. Hopefully, next year, the Braves don't use more players than the Falcons so I don't have to do this again.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Jose Ramirez, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: The major league season is long. From the point pitchers report to camp in February until a hopeful trip to postseason play in October, a lot can happen. For Ramirez, he was given a chance to right the ship and finished strong to keep him in Atlanta's plans for 2017. Out-of-options, Ramirez opened the year with the major league team, but after two appearances in which 9-of-15 batters faced reached base, the Braves decided they had already seen enough and banished Ramirez to the minors. It was a quick decision, but he had walked four over just two innings of work. He posted some big strikeout numbers upon his arrival in Gwinnett, but continued to walk a lot of batters as well. The Gwinnett and minor league coaches continued to work with him and over a two-month period, Ramirez walked just 8 over 25.1 innings. With the Braves' bullpen getting a trade deadline remodel, Ramirez returned to the majors near the tail-end of July. His control wasn't as pin-point as it had been in Gwinnett, but it was much improved and he logged an impressive 30.2 innings down the stretch.

2017 Projection: One change that was evident with Ramirez once he returned to the majors was that his release point was a little lower, giving him a bit more pronounced three-quarter's delivery. It also gave him better heat and the ability to throw first-pitch strikes. The Braves pushed Ramirez to nearly drop his changeup in favor of a bigger use of his hard slider. The results were solid and Ramirez will have a shot to win a spot in next year's pen. Now, there are some concerning issues with Ramirez. While he lowered his FIP to 3.94 by year's end, that was nearly a run lower than his expected FIP. Part of that was due to an unusually low amount of homeruns (5.4% per flyball). That is unlikely to continue and even though Ramirez's control was better, a 12.6% rate is still 4% above average. There are some things here to really like, but there are some problematic pitfalls to deal with as well. Ramirez will be 27 when the 2017 season opens. Power arms will always have a shot to turn the corner and Atlanta is hoping Chuck Hernandez and the new Braves pitching gurus can work some magic with Ramirez.

Anthony Recker, C, 33 years-old

2016 Review: BABIP is a fun stat. Heading into this season, Recker had a BABIP of .249. It was a testament to how bad of a hitter Recker had been. Then, over a 33-game run after getting the callup to Atlanta, Recker's BABIP jumped nearly hundred points and suddenly, he had a triple slash of .278/.394/.433. It was pretty surprising since his minor league numbers weren't nearly that impressive either. Also astounding was how he shaved 10% off his K% and re-purposed about 5% to his walk rate (not sure how one does that, but Recker's special).

2017 Projection: Okay, Recker didn't suddenly turn into a hitting God overnight. He simply did not have enough time for his numbers to regress to the mean. Expecting the now 33 year-old with a career 1.8 fWAR to have a 2016-like encore performance would be a bit much. Recker's not bad as far as depth goes, but the Braves will likely non-tender him rather than go through arbitration and offer him a return trip via a minor league contract. He may take his chances elsewhere and if he does, do not fret. If his numbers regress - and they will - you are left with an okayish backstop with poor pitch framing metrics, decent walk numbers, and a bit of pop. It's not the worst guy to stash at Triple-A, but the Braves should do better for their major league team.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Paco Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Paco Rodriguez, LHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: Acquired in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera trade in July of 2015, the Braves had hoped that Rodriguez, who was rehabbing from bone spurs removal surgery at the time, would eventually play a role for the team by September that year. Instead, he would undergo Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2016 as he rehabbed from the operation.

2017 Projection: In Rodriguez, the Braves have a quality arm with already 124 games of major league experience since being picked in the second round of the 2012 draft. Righties struggle against him while lefties are a lost cause (a career split of .174/.245/.234 with 4.8 K/BB). Overall, Rodriguez had a career FIP/xFIP of 2.98/3.00 before injuries put him on the shelf. A rarity for a reliever, Rodriguez utilizes three pitches with regularity including a sinker that he can run in at about 90 mph if healthy and an 86-88 mph cutter along with an 80 mph slider. He even sprinkles in a four-seamer and circle change at times to keep righties off balance. If he's back, the Braves have a crafty lefty who can give the team more productivity than simply getting left-handed batters out. Atlanta might try to baby him, especially early on, and try to avoid back-to-back's, but provided he's good to go in 2017, he'll be an integral part to the revamped and improved 2017 Atlanta bullpen.

See Also
Transaction Tuesday: Recker, Adonis, Minter, Yepez
Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith
What Can the Braves Learn from the Cubs?

Braves Can McDowell

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

After eleven seasons spanning three managers, Roger McDowell will no longer be the pitching coach of the Atlanta Braves. For a franchise that rarely sees turnover in the coaching staff, the last several months have been a change-of-pace. The in-season firing of Fredi Gonzalez, the very real chance that the interim manager Brian Snitker won't be in charge in 2017, and now McDowell's dismissal might point to one thing - John Coppolella is willing to change up the team a bit more than the last two general managers the Braves had.

McDowell replaced Leo Mazzone in 2006 after the latter left for Baltimore. Three years ago, McDowell nearly left the Braves following the 2013 season, but former general manager Frank Wren gave McDowell a boost in pay along with a long-term contract (for coaches) to keep him away from the Phillies. While with the Braves, McDowell pieced together bullpens with castoffs like Eric O'Flaherty, David Carpenter, and more recently - Jim Johnson, who cited his comfortability with McDowell as one of his reasons to forego free agency and reup with the Braves.

One criticism related to McDowell was a similar one lobbed at Mazzone - he didn't relate well with young starters and they rarely seemed to blossomed under his tutelage. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson both saw their careers slide into mediocrity after All-Star worthy beginnings. Others like Kyle Davies and Jo-Jo Reyes never developed. Another criticism of McDowell was found in the belief that his pitchers too often went under the knife, a stark change from the Mazzone years. When on the mound, righties Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy - along with southpaw Mike Minor - could be excellent. However, they were frequently on an operating table rather than throwing strikes.

Both criticisms are a bit lacking in my mind. Young pitchers flame out all the time. I'm sure McDowell did struggle to reach certain prospects, but on the other hand, he got his fair share out of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and some of the aforementioned oft-injured pitchers. Furthermore, considering the rate of pitcher injuries - especially those that result in Tommy John surgery - is skyrocketing, can we really look at McDowell and blame him for that?

McDowell won't be without a job for too long. He's had too much success with the Braves, including a 2007 year where he pieced together a pitching staff that included Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle , Oscar Villarreal, Tyler Yates, Chad Paronto, and the previously mentioned Davies and Reyes and the Braves still finished third in the league in ERA. It was the first-of-seven years in which the Braves finished in the Top 5 in the National League in ERA, including a 3.18 ERA in 2013 to pace the league.

This dismissal means two things. One, the Braves do want a new voice to lead a very young pitching staff. Johnson is the only pitcher on the Braves roster who is definitely going to be on next year's team and is over the age of 30. Sixteen different pitchers took the ball for the Braves this year who were in their Age-25 year or younger. Pitchers like Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims are a good spring camp away from entering the picture. Whether McDowell did have issues with reaching younger pitchers or not, the Braves definitely want the guy in charge of their young pitchers to have an exemplary record with young guns.

The other thing this firing immediately makes you think of - the Braves might be moving away from Brian Snitker as next year's manager and will be giving the next Braves manager a chance to build his own staff. That could be Bud Black, though I am not very excited by that idea. There is a good chance McDowell is just the tip of the ice berg and long-running coaches like Eddie Perez and Terry Pendleton will also be headed out.

I don't necessarily disagree with letting McDowell go. I think he was very good at his job and the fact that this 2016 team wasn't at the bottom of the league in ERA despite starting 16 different pitchers is impressive (four NL teams finished with an ERA worse than the Braves). Still, I am a firm believer in giving a manager the leeway to bring his guys in and build the coaching staff how he sees fit. Letting him go now simply allows McDowell even more time to secure employment for 2017 - which is actually a pretty good parting gift when you think about it.

Fare thee well, Second Spitter. May you land with an American League team and enjoy your time there.

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #4

Time to try to push out the final seven of this series. The good news is that three of them are already written so expect me to polish up the 3rd Worst for publishing later today. Today's choice is a bit nuts since it hasn't even produced a major league talent yet, but I am a big fan. Clearly.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

4th Best Draft Since 2000...The 2015 Draft

I am fully aware that I am judging this draft way too quickly, but I believe this draft could - yes, could - exceed any draft since 2000.

It was the first time since 2007 that the Braves had multiple picks in the first time and it had been 14 years since the Braves had three picks in the Top 41 selections. The 14th overall was the pick they received for going a Frank Wren-dismissing-worthy 79-83 in 2014. The 28th overall was compensation losing Ervin Santana while the #41 overall was a competitive balance pick the Braves stole from the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade. In addition, they added the final pick of the second round (#75) in the Victor Reyes/Trevor Cahill trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. When you add the #89 overall the Braves were receiving anyway, the Braves had six picks in the Top 100.

It was big news for a system in desperate need for added talent. In a pitching-rich draft, the Braves never deviated from their plan of taking what the draft gives you rather than reach for need. It was a stark change from the Wren-led years where Atlanta settled on college talent who could be expediated through the minors to provide depth for the big league club. Such a method produced big hits like Alex Wood and Andrelton Simmons, but also led to unremarkable high-round additions like Todd Cunningham and David Hale. The new Braves pushed money around to spend heavily on amateur talent and the 2015 draft was a first step toward showing what the Braves under the leadership of John Hart and John Coppolella, along with newly promoted Brian Bridges, could do.

They would sign their first 25 players drafted and 31-of-43 overall. They went high school early before adding college arms to finish the first ten rounds. After that, they cycled between junior college, four-year colleges, and high school players. The only real constant was that pitchers played a prominent role, much to the criticism of casual observers who noted the Braves already had a wealth of pitching talent. Of the first 25 drafted, 19 were pitchers. But Atlanta was not interested in filling out a quota of X amount of infielders and X amount of outfielders. They were only interested in taking the best player available.

Their first pick was a sign that these Braves were fearless in their approach to the draft. Rather than take their chances later in the draft and play it safe early, the Braves went with lefty Kolby Allard out of San Clemente High School (CA). Allard was a Top-5 calibar player before back issues chased off many teams. Not the Braves, though. They took the southpaw with frontline stuff and a curveball that was one of the best in the drafts. Atlanta played the odds. A true 14th best player in the draft might solidify the middle-of-the-rotation or be a plus-hitter. A Top-5 talent can start a Game 1 of the World Series. Atlanta went with the high-end.

Atlanta remained risky by taking a player whose draft status wasn't as high as the pick Atlanta grabbed him at in Mike Soroka. A righty prep star from Canada, Soroka had handled himself with maturity as a member of the Canadian junior national team in exhibition games against major league talent. Atlanta continued to not paint-by-numbers with their final first rounder as they went with Austin Riley, a pitcher who had some interesting power potential at third base. Their second position player came 13 picks later in the form of Allard's battery mate, Lucas Herbert.

The next ten picks were all pitchers ranging from the risky A.J. Minter, who threw just 58 innings in college because of injury, to Grayson Jones, out of THE Shelton State Community College.

When the dust settled, some scoffed at Atlanta's haul, finding it underwhelming at times. Many wondered if the risky direction was less smart and more reckless. However, you have to imagine that the Braves' braintrust set back and was happy with the talent they had added. Riley would have a breakout first season and become an immediate prospect. Allard was handled conservatively, but in brief cameos in the Gulf Coast League, he mowed down hitters. Later picks like Patrick Weigel (7th round) and Trevor Belicek (16th round) would produce intriguing arms while 25th round catcher Jonathan Morales might be a diamond in the rough.

Yes, it's too soon to get this excited, but you have to forgive me. This collection of talent is too good to ignore and their refusal to limit themselves to conservative approaches of too many college kids or guys who were born in Georgia/southeast is a refreshing change to the drafts of the last several years. One draft into the Coppy/Bridges years and I am on board and anxious to see what they can do with the 2016 draft.

Oh...and least we forget that the Braves also added Dansby Swanson via trade to their 2016 haul. That only makes this draft look all the better.

Random Prospect Sunday - Lucas Sims

(A little note on this series. On Sundays throughout the season, a player will be chosen at random using the helpful website, random.org. The goal of this series is to talk about both big prospects and organizational filler rather than focus completely on the Top 20 prospects in the system. I alternate pitchers and hitters and this week, I focus on a pitcher with a high ceiling. Here's the rest of this series.)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

How altered is the Braves system in just over 12 months? When I did my first Top 30 Prospects last March, I ranked today's spotlight player Lucas Sims second, sandwiched between Jose Peraza and Max Fried. A year later, he was ranked seventh and the amazing thing was that 2015 wasn't even considered a bad season because of how it ended. I still graded him as a B+ player, but the talent got so much better and dropped him back. He still has a great chance, however, of being an excellent starter in the majors.

Born in Lawrenceville, Georgia on May 10, 1994, Sims' parents were probably a little too busy to notice that the Braves had outslugged the Phillies 9-8 on the back of a seven-run ninth to tie the score. The big knocks of the inning came from a three-run shot by Mike Mordecai and an RBI single by Javy Lopez to tie the game. In the 15th - and this is true - Deion Sanders doubled and stole third. He would score on a suicide squeeze off the bat of Mike Stanton. What a fun day in Braves' history to be born.

A fixture at Turner Field during the Streak, Sims grew to fame with Brookwood High School out of Snellville, Georgia, even besting Parkview High School at times. You might remember Parkview because it produced Jeff Francoeur. He came into the draft with four pitches and mid-90's velocity. A commit to Clemson, Sims was selected by the Braves as the 21st pick of the 2012 draft. Shortly thereafter, they signed him with a bonus of $1.65M - which was actually less than the suggested bonus for that slot. Sims was one of the prime jewels of the Frank Wren era. Like Jason Heyward before him, the Braves had put aside their tendency to select high floor rather than high ceiling. The fact that both Heyward and Sims were Georgia prep stars may have played a role in that.

Sims started briefly in the Gulf Coast League, but the Braves felt the kid was mature enough for a promotion after just three starts so they sent him to Danville. He was not quite as successful over eight starts like he was with the GCL Braves, but Sims remained difficult to hit (9.7 K/9) and his biggest issues were self-inflicted (4 BB/9). In 2013, the Braves kept the training wheels on for another season - even moving Sims to the bullpen to limit his innings thrown. Yet, even with their efforts to suppress his performance, he showed the potential that made him such a high pick. In 116.2 innings, he struck out 134 and allowed just three homeruns despite dealing with hitters who were typically more physically mature and more experienced. With the Braves' farm system drying up due to trades and a host of graduations to the majors (including Alex Wood, selected a round after Sims), the young righty became one of the premier prospects left on the farm.

Ranked as a Top 60 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and MLB.com entering 2014, Sims was a marked man with a host of expectations. Those hopes for Sims led to him pressing as a member of the Lynchburg Hillcats. "Some of my weaknesses got exposed," Sims said. The few negative grades related to his 2013 season (15 HBP, 14 WP) followed him in '14, but he surrendered a slightly higher rate of homeruns and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.3 K/9 to 6.2. The only thing positive stat from the tough go-of-it was that he pitched 156.1 innings. And let's not forget that he was, at 20, the youngest player in the Carolina League.

The Braves brought him to camp the next spring - after all, he was their best pitching prospect at the time - and Sims even got into a couple of games. In the eighth inning of a game against the Astros, Sims pitched a hitless frame. Atlanta would go on to no-hit the Astros, but as was their M.O. in 2015, Atlanta found a way to not win (they ultimately tied the game 2-2 in ten innings). Sims returned to the Carolina League after spring camp - this time with Carolina - and struggled out the gate. Over a three-game stretch, which included a visit to Lynchburg, Sims surrendered 14 runs (12 ER) over just 8.2 innings. He would regroup when the calendar switched to May and over his next two starts, he went 13 innings with just two earned runs allowed. On the day that he would have made his seventh start of the year, the Carolina Mudcats' bus crashed in route to Myrtle Beach. Sims was one of several players injured in the crash and would not play in a game again until June 25. He was roughed up in a two-start rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League before returning to start Carolina's game against, ironically enough, Myrtle Beach the day after Independence Day. The Pelicans put up a six spot against him. Five days later, he took the mound in Myrtle Beach and tossed three scoreless inning, but a high-pitch count ended his day prematurely. Finally, on July 16th, he threw six great innings against Winston-Salem in which he struck out eight. It would be his final Single-A start.

He would finish the season with nine starts with Mississippi. His control was shaky, but he pitched at least 5.1 innings in 7 of his starts and only surrendered more than two runs twice. His final three starts were especially dominating as he went 19.1 innings with 22 strikeouts, five walks, and 11 hits allowed. His season would have ended on a high note if that's how it closed, but it continued with a six-game showing with Peoria in the Arizona Fall League. On a much stricter pitch count, Sims was impressive in a hitter's league, allowing just five runs (four earned) in 17 innings with a K/BB rate of 17/3. Below is some footage from his AFL run courtesy of Fangraphs.


So far in 2016, Sims has made a pair of starts and leads the system with 16 K's over 9 innings. His control has been quite suspect so far this year with 7 walks, but that should fall back in line.

The book on Sims is that he throws a fastball with great velocity in the mid 90's and while it has been hittable when not controlled, it can also be difficult to square up when it's down in the zone. He sprinkles in a changeup, which Sims continues to improve, and a plus curveball that is right at home in a Braves' system that is stocked with elite curveballs. Outside of the bus crash, Sims has been quite durable with a pitcher's body built to be a workhorse. Sims is still working on the finer things like consistent arm slot, especially when working deep into games, but he's a hard worker who is very easy to like. He has projections that are a tick below Matt Wisler in that Wisler's realistic projection was a middle-of-the-rotation fixture who could start playoff games for a team. Sims high-end potential could take him in that territory. The lower end could see Sims fill out the bottom of the staff or move to the bullpen, where his fastball/curve combination could make him a dynamite reliever. He has been clocked with velocity in the 98-99 mph range, though that's unsustainable as a starter.

Despite the many prospects that the Braves have acquired since 2014, it's important to not forget about guys like Sims. He has the capability to be an excellent major league pitcher if he cleans up some of his issues and with his work ethic, I expect that if he can find a way, he'll do it.

Want more Random Prospect Sunday profiles?
Steve Rodriguez
Braxton Davidson
Kyle Kinman
...or see ALL of them.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith

The Braves were active in John Hart's season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe
Gosselin for Touki
KJ/Uribe for Whalen/Gant

The Trade
As part of a three-team trade, Braves trade Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza, Alex Wood, and cash to the Dodgers for Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez, Zachary Bird, and a 2016 draft choice (35th overall, but subject to change) from the Marlins, who also sent Mat Latos and Mike Morse to the Dodgers for Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham, and Kevin Guzman. Yep, profiled that trade.

The Rationale

Scott Cunningham | Getty Images

Crushes die hard. Last winter, as Olivera worked out for a number of ballclubs, the Braves were a surprise team that was looking to invest big on the Cuban import. A .323/.407/.505 hitter in Cuba, Olivera was considered one of the best hitters left on the island before his defection. He had a silver medal in the Olympics and was part of the disappointing Cuban World Baseball Classic squad in 2009 that finished sixth.

The Braves pursued Olivera hard, but their offer wasn't close to the Dodgers' $62.5M offer over six years ($28M was a signing bonus). Olivera had some medical issues (blood disorder before his defection and a minor UCL tear), but was still considered a stout offensive player.

Like I said...old crushes die hard. The Braves wanted Olivera and considered him a future cog in their lineup. They appeared willing to make it happen and paid a steep price. Jose Peraza was the Braves' top prospect heading into 2015. His game had actually regressed since his 2013 season with Lynchburg. His walks percentage was cut in half and with no power to speak of, he was completely dependent on his bat control to get on base so that he could use his best weapon - his speed. But even his stolen base numbers had declined from 64 and 60 the previous two years to 36 in 2015. Injuries were a factor. The Braves saw a guy who had not advanced and with Jace Peterson a stopgap at second and Andrelton Simmons a fixture at short (right?), Peraza was considered a guy who while useful, was maybe not the impact prospect many had felt he was.

Alex Wood had been very good since arriving in the majors in 2013, but there were some concerns. His fastball velocity had declined (though he never brought much heat). His herky-jerky motion had always been a worry and his strikeouts had fell from nearly a quarter of all batters in 2014 to 18% at the time of the trade. His WHIP had reached 1.41. With a plethora of pitching prospects on the way, the Braves saw Wood as expendable.

The Dodgers also saw Olivera as expendable...at least when it came to winning a title with their bloated roster in 2015. With Justin Turner exceeding all expectations at third base and Corey Seager on the way (not to mention adding Peraza in this deal), the well-sought after Olivera felt more like an extra piece than one that would be a six-year starter. They may have also grew quickly tired of Olivera's hamstring and other concerns that kept him from making his debut with the Dodgers. Furthermore, they needed pitchers. While they had two of the top starters in baseball and a surprisingly durable Brett Anderson, the rest of the staff was unknown in the wake of Brandon McCarthy's early-season injury and Brandon Beachy's quick flameout shortly before the deadline. Adding both Wood and Latos solidified the staff while getting Johnson and Avilan was supposed to make the bullpen deeper. Johnson had been a great add for the Braves and had even filled in as closer due to Jason Grilli's injury, but his return to closer was short-lived. Avilan had went from surprising in 2012 to "how's he succeeding?" in 2013 to "ugh, he actually sucks" in 2014. He was closer to the better Avilan in 2015, but was prone to blow it and blow it big.

Back to Atlanta - they added a pair of pitchers in this deal with Bird and Paco. The latter would eventually need to go under the knife and we will have to wait until 2017 to see him pitch for the Braves. Good thing, too, because that 2017 team is going to be awesome (or so I hear). Bird is an athletic righty who is still raw. He's struggled with control, but has flashed strikeout potential.

Oh, yeah, the Marlins were in this deal. They shed some salary, got a few prospects, and gave the Braves a draft choice. Yay.

I almost forgot about Arroyo. I recently talked about how he came to the Braves. He's just a guy getting paid.

Short-Term Results
Olivera didn't impress in the minors, but when rosters expanded, he finally got a callup and...well, didn't impress that much in the majors either. Still rusty with the bat, Olivera looked damn near puzzled in the field. The Braves had hoped for a springboard September and got more questions than answers. Overall, he slashed .253/.310/.405 in 24 games and lost at-bats to Adonis Garcia.

On the farm, Bird was pushed to AA as the Braves are super aggressive with their prospects. He only started three games and struggled to throw strikes in each one. He was shut down after a 5-run, 5-walk two-inning outing against Mobile on August 13. He should be on schedule to resume his AA career when 2016 opens up.

The Dodgers acquired seven players in this deal and none of them were all that good. Dodgers did quickly pushed Wood to scrap his four-seamer and use his two-seamer along with more spiked curves. He got more grounders as a result, but didn't pitch any better. He appeared in one game in the NLDS and got lit up for four runs, including a three-run homer by Yoenis Cespedes which recently landed in Iowa. Avilan was used to get out lefties, which he does a good job against. He also appeared in the playoffs and retired all four batters he faced. Johnson went to hell in LA. He gave up three homers in 18.2 ING along with a ridiculous 32 hits. Now, he was unlucky to the most extreme degree, but that provided the Dodgers little solace. Peraza appeared in seven games, but hamstring troubles sidelined him ahead of the playoffs. He was the second youngest player in the NL last season.

I don't really care about the other players in this deal because they don't relate to the Braves much at all.

Long-Term Outlook
I know I call this series John Hart's trades, but this was John Coppolella's big money gamble. Even if the Braves were going to move Wood and/or Peraza regardless, doing so for Olivera took a lot of faith. While every scouting report has said that Olivera has the bat to be a productive major leaguer, scouting reports can and have been wrong.

The deal took a hit by the news that Olivera was moving to the outfield next season. Solidifying third base added value to this trade as finding plus-production at third base is not an easy task. Only a half-dozen qualified third baseman had a 120 or better RC+ in each of the last three seasons. The number isn't that different for left field, but it's considered an easier position to formulate a productive platoon than third base. Olivera's move to the outfield caused many, including myself, to re-question this deal and ask this question - just how wrong were the Braves about Olivera? If they were wrong that he could play a competent third base, are they wrong on his hitting?

Bird is a good lottery ticket. His fastball/slider suggests an eventual move to the bullpen, but if he can get either his change or curve to be a true #3 pitch, he could remain in the picture at starter as a bottom-of-the-rotation guy with the chance to progress a bit more. As for Paco, if healthy in 2017, he's a nice weapon. When he was at his best in 2013, he had an 82 cFIP. On a scale of 100, an 82 is 18% better than the league average and the exact mark that Noah Syndergaard had this year. However, he's only appeared in 37 games in the majors since. If healthy and back to his 10 K/9, 50% groundball form, he'll be a weapon through 2019, the final year of team control.

As an aside, it's difficult to preview the #35th overall pick and for that matter, I've seen others call it the #34th. Teams that sign players who were offered a qualified offer could lose their first round pick, which would make this selection even higher. For funsies, here's a list of selected players selected from #30-#35 over the last five years: Braxton Davidson, Jason Hursh, Aaron Judge, Brian Johnson, and Kevin Plawecki.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will enter 2016 with Avilan, Peraza, and Wood and room for all three on their roster. The results immediately after the trade didn't benefit them, but while Avilan might be serviceable enough (the Dodgers could non-tender him), Peraza and Wood each could play a big role on the next Dodgers team. Or they could be trade bait.

This epic trade ultimately looks less important as we move toward the Hot Stove season just a few months later. The Dodgers made the playoffs, but lost to the Mets. The Braves were already a sinking ship and losing Wood only prompted them to give a guy like Ryan Weber a look. Peraza could have been useful as an alternative to Peterson, but with Peraza failing to advance as a player, maybe the best thing was to cut bait while his value was high. Olivera was going to be the third baseman, but he's not a third baseman. Paco's hurt even before he pitches.

Some call this deal stupid. I wouldn't go that far, but I remain unconvinced that it was the right deal for the Braves. However, if Olivera hits .285/.340/.480 next season, I'll be a bit more on board with the gamble.