Organizational Overview: First Base

Freeman | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

For many of the organizational overviews I do to accompany our prospect rundowns, the current starter or starters at that position may run the gamut between good-to-bad, but there are often two or three really good prospects on the way to supplement them or push them out of the way. First base is the exception as not only is the starter elite, but there are nearly no prospects to speak of. That's not a terrible thing - I mentioned before how many standout first basemen don't start there. But it certainly makes for a relatively sad collection of prospect blurbs like we released on Friday.

I'm changing up the organizational overview slightly. The first section will include where that position projects right now for 2018 in comparison to the league. The second section will look at the near future and the "oh (expletive)!" plan should things go really wrong in 2018. Finally, the third section goes beyond the next couple of years. Some of the information I use comes from recent looks at the roster makeup for next season.

First Base
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21 million)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3 million estimate based on Lonnie Chisenhall's 2017 arbitration settlement)
Minor League Free Agents: Carlos Franco, Joey Meneses, Matt Tuiasosopo
Current Projection: $25.3 million

For the Braves, their hopes and dreams for 2018 include a lot of Freeman playing. Next season will be Year 5 of Freeman's big eight-year extension that runs through 2021. The deal was heavily backloaded, which is pretty common for a player signing prior to his big arbitration paydays. Freeman earned $20.5M this year, the first of five years he'll earn at least that much cash. Freeman has yet to play in a playoff game since signing that extension, which is a terrible waste of some of the slugger's best years. Freeman notably played a little third base this year and didn't suck too awfully at it, which was surprising.

Adams is currently projected for the 2018 roster because to lose him for nothing is difficult to believe. When the dust settled on his 2017, it was a pretty solid - and unspectacular - season. Basically, a microcosm of his career. That said, he provides a big bat against right-hand pitching and could be useful for next year's team as support for Freeman and a potential option in left field. You'll lose value with Adams in left because he's a terrible defender, but you can also say the same about the current projected starter out there.

Jace Peterson and Rio Ruiz, not mentioned here, also played some first base for the Braves last year and both could return next season.

Comparison - 2018

Freeman played in 117 games, roughly forty fewer than the other elite options at first base. Despite that, he nearly matched them as far as production goes. Despite swinging a wet newspaper for much of the second half, Freeman's .280 ISO was only bested by rookies Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo among first basemen. It was the fourth time in five years he posted at least a 4 WAR and only Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt can make convincing arguments that they could be the best first baseman in the game since the beginning of last year.

There is zero reason to believe Freeman, when healthy, won't continue to excel in 2018. He finished last season with the lowest strikeout rate of his career and the best wOBA so he's still improving rather than regressing. Next season will be his Age-28 season so he could be still scratching the surface on what the Best Freeman might look like. That's a scary proposition for the rest of the league right now.

If Adams is brought back, he remains a solid platoon option should Freeman go down, having OPS'd .828 against righties throughout his career. He brings limited value because of his flaws, but when he's on, his bat can launch homers in binges. He's also a tremendous pinch-hitter and I typically don't attach such an adjective to a role that is often difficult to successfully duplicate. Over 155 pinch-hit appearances, Adams is slashing .315/.342/.555 with nine home runs.

You could make the argument that with Adams and a competent platoon option against southpaws, first base would be a strength. But with Freeman, it makes first base an elite strength compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - The Near-Future/"Oh, (Expletive)!" Plan

For the latter, the presence of Adams gives the Braves a big boost. However, the Braves may find his salary, which could approach $5 million, a bit too rich for their blood. If so, the Braves would be in a dicey position depth-wise short of other moves this winter - basically, the same position they were in when Freeman went down after being hit by a pitch by Aaron Loup in 2017. At that point, the Braves signed the zombified version of James Loney, started Jace Peterson at first base, and promoted Carlos Franco from Double-A to Triple-A. None of those moves gave former General Manager John Coppolella any confidence - as they shouldn't have - and he made the deal for Adams.

If the Braves cut bait on Adams, they should definitely be on the lookout for some help here because they lack any real options to immediately call upon. There's Peterson, who...no. Just no. Rio Ruiz was given a late look last month at first base and also played a handful of games at first base this season for Gwinnett. There was some purpose to these moves as the Braves looked to uncover some added value in Ruiz, whose defensive inflexibility and limited offensive profile as a platoon hitter makes it hard to keep him on the roster. He looked like a guy who hasn't played much first base to no one's surprise. He'll likely continue to get some work there this offseason and spring. If Adams is gone, without additional options brought aboard, Ruiz might be Atlanta's best option at first base should Freeman go down.

This is both a potential strength and weakness. Not many teams - especially in the NL - have an option like Matt Adams to call upon. But if he is non-tendered, depth could be a real weakness that will need to be addressed.

Lugbauer | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Comparison - The Future

Here's a brief projection of what 1B might look like next year in the farm system with their rankings in our most recent Top 5 1B in parenthesis...

Gwinnett: Sal Giardina, Minor League Free Agents
Mississippi: Carlos Castro (5), Jonathan Morales
Florida: Drew Lugbauer (1), Kurt Hoekstra, Anthony Concepcion,
Rome: Austin Bush (4), Griffin Benson
Danville: Nicholas Vizcaino

That's not good. Lugbauer is really the only member of this group that would seem like a decent bet to get to the majors and he was an eleventh round draft choice last June. As we talked about on Friday, there's just not a lot else and that includes a pair of players from the Top 5 prospect list, Carlos Franco and Joey Meneses, who I believe are both possible minor league free agents this winter. The Braves could bring back either/both, but that won't help the position much.

That said, with Freeman's youth, first base is simply not a priority. Even if you are still worried about the future, first base could be aided by moving a prospect from another position. Like I pointed out, we saw Rio Ruiz get into some games at first base in the second half of the 2017 season. Another prospect, Braxton Davidson, could be one that gets moved sooner rather than later. When the roster for the fall instructional league was announced in mid-September, Davidson was listed as an infielder despite playing only the outfield after being drafted. Davidson's prospect status has disappeared after an OPS under .700 the last two years at High-A ball, but at just 21-years-old, the Braves aren't going to completely give up on him. He'll have to hit a ton to be a first base prospect, but with little else in the system, it might be a good move.

Austin Riley is another guy who could be switched across the diamond, as our Stephen Tolbert eluded to last week. I'm not there yet with Stephen, but Riley's defense at third base certainly is a work in progress. Others like Brett Cumberland or Alex Jackson could struggle to stay behind the plate, though Jackson seems like a better fit in the outfield.

Again, there's no pressing reason to feel the need to add some big-time talent at first base. Beyond the fact that you can move other players there, Freeman is locked up for another four seasons so when we talk about the future at the position, it's important to remember that the future is already here. In a weird way, despite the lack of any really talented prospects, the future at first base is still a strength. Other teams may have the big first base prospect, but when you have a guy like Freeman who is still pretty young and locked up, you're still looking pretty even without much in the system.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments!

2017-18 Hot Stove Organizational Overviews
Catcher

Where the Braves Sit Right Now

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

We could sit here for some time and keep talking about the surprising dismissal of John Coppolella, in-fighting between the remaining John's (Hart and Schuerholz), the possibility of pending sanctions, and so on. And you can be sure we will address more of that when the information is available. However, like it or not, the 2017-18 Hot Stove is warming up and it's time to start looking at next year's roster.

The Braves used 49 players in 2017 - down from the 60 utilized in both of the last two seasons. Part of that was a little better luck injury-wise, but the big reason the Braves used fewer players was that they were saying the days of random players you forgot were still playing were over. With depth increasing at Triple-A, the Braves were calling on an increasingly younger collection of talent as the season progressed. Of the eleven starters they used, eight were younger than 27. The Braves were looking to the future in many regards to their player usage.

Let's take a gander at what the roster makeup for 2018 looks like right now. This is just for general information as regardless of what happens when Major League Baseball finishes their investigation, the Braves will still be active in the trade market. They'll still sign free agents. The roster will change from what it currently looks like and life will eventually get back to normal.

Speaking of free agents, the weird thing about this team is that they really only have one major league free agent. A lot of the player movement will actually come from non-tenders and trades as the Braves look to open up room on their 40-man roster.

For what it's worth, my arbitration estimates are based on similar arbitration agreements from last winter. We may take a much more robust look at arbitration-eligible players later on, but for now, I used last year's results to help guide me. For players mentioned in the coming attractions, I'm limiting it to guys I project appearing in the majors next year if healthy and productive. Each renewal is given a $545,000 contract for 2018. Some will make more while some will make less due to the nature of split contracts and earning a different salary in the minors.

Starting Pitchers
Signed: Julio Teheran ($8M)
Arbitration: Mike Foltynewicz ($2.25M -Taijuan Walker, First Year, Super 2)
Renewal: Aaron Blair, Luis Gohara, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler
Option: R.A. Dickey ($8M team option, $500K buyout)
Free Agent: None (yay!)
Coming Attractions: Kolby Allard, Tyler Pike, Mike Soroka

There is a lot of depth here, though just as many question marks. Teheran and Foltynewicz both had good stretches during the season, but each struggled for the majority of the year. Gohara and Newcomb have the stuff, but will they consistently throw it for strikes? Is Sims better suited for the bullpen? Are Blair and Wisler done for? And will the Braves bring back Dickey?

I've been struck with how confident people are that the Braves aren't looking at possibly bringing in a big arm. This rotation, as its currently constructed, could be good, but the questions are far too numerous for me to be very bullish on that prospect. As far as Dickey goes, I imagine the Braves decline his option if he's still iffy on returning on 2018 and tell him that they'll be interested in bringing him back if he changes his mind. In the meantime, they'll start to kick the tires on a big move to stabilize the rotation.

Current Projection: $13.475 million

Relief Pitchers
Signed: Jim Johnson ($4.5M)
Arbitration: Rex Brothers ($1.42M - Rex Brothers :), Third Year), Sam Freeman ($908K - Evan Scribner, First Year), Ian Krol ($1.275M - Blake Wood, 2nd Year), Arodys Vizcaino ($2.55M - Jake Diekman, Third Year, Super 2), Daniel Winkler ($850K - Bruce Rondon, First Year)
Renewal: Jacob Lindgren, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, 
Free Agent: Jason Motte
Coming Attractions: Phil Pfeifer, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts, Caleb Dirks

Don't be fooled by so many names (nearly 20) - the bullpen will need some work. For starters, there are at least two non-tenders here with Brothers and Krol - and yes, I used Brothers as an arbitration comp for himself. In addition, many of the names in the renewal department have issues either from injury (Lindgren, Biddle, Rivero) or bad-to-average 2017 numbers (Cabrera, Hursh, Jackson). That leaves Johnson, Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, and Ramirez along with safe arbitration keepers like Freeman and Winkler. While there are some reinforcements mixed in, the Braves will likely want to find a couple of established arms to help out.

Current Projection: $13.713 million

Catchers
Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Coming Attractions: Kade Scivicque and Alex Jackson

Freitas and Sanchez will likely be designated for assignment soon so don't expect them to stick around. Before the Coppy mess, reports were that picking up Flowers' option was as good as done. That is likely still the plan because the value in comparison to the price is so high here. Catcher might be the easiest position to pencil in.

Current Projection: $7.5M

Infield
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21M)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3M - Lonnie Chisenhall, Third Year), Jace Peterson ($885K - Tim Beckham, First Year)
Renewal: Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz
Coming Attractions: Travis Demeritte, Austin Riley, Luis Valenzuela

Three of the four starting spots should be locked up with a number of cheap options for third base to fill out the infield. For what it's worth, I imagine the Braves will go cheap at third base, but there certainly is a chance they could get involved in some of the higher price options. One possible connection could formulate if Dayton Moore takes the Braves job and wants to bring Mike Moustakas with him. The arbitration cases here are both interesting. I wrote the other day that if the market doesn't develop for Adams - and I think there is a good chance it doesn't - I'd rather keep him than lose him for nothing. Peterson's poor play the last two years makes him a non-tender candidate, but a strong finish (.325/.460/.475 over his last 50 PA) may have bought him another year. He'll be out of options, but the Braves may see him as worth the investment. I don't foresee any coming attractions pushing their way on the roster this spring, but all three could appear in Atlanta by late summer next year.

Current Projection: $28.91 million

Outfield
Signed: Matt Kemp ($21.5M), Nick Markakis ($10.5M), Ender Inciarte ($4M)
Arbitration: Danny Santana ($600K, Ehire Adrianza, First Year)
Renewal: Lane Adams, Micah Johnson
Coming Attractions: Ronald Acuna, Dustin Peterson

The Braves will try to trade one of the corner outfielders this winter to open a spot for Acuna, which they may find easier said than done. As for Santana, he seems a goner due to his poor play after joining the Braves. This position isn't quite as easy to forecast as catcher, but we know there is probably going to be a mix of Inciarte, Acuna, and a veteran to be named later (likely Kemp). Micah Johnson rarely got a chance to play in Atlanta after being designated for assignment on twitter several weeks ago. Lane Adams, on the other hand, played his way into the mix to begin 2018.

Current Projection: $37.09 million

Other consideration: $2.75 million from the Padres

Roster Projection: $97.938 million

Note that this roster projection is just an estimate based both on salary arbitration figures that could be wrong and renewals that may or may not happen. Chances are that the player payroll projection right now is a bit lower than I have it, but I believe my total is a nice jumping off point.

So, let's try to put that nearly $98 million into perspective. Since 2014, the Braves have had opening day payrolls of $112M, $97M, $87M, and $123M. The last total was also last season when the Braves opened SunTrust Park. That gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that the Braves have a low-end player payroll cap of $120 million with a higher-end estimate of $130M. I'll take the difference and say that next year's cap is likely around $125 million.

Recall that the nearly $98 million total I gave you doesn't include Dickey's option and does include a number of non-tenders. The Braves may elect to go away from what I am predicting. They may also choose to non-tender someone like Matt Adams. The other way they could cut salary here is via trades - especially involving a corner outfielder. The best-case scenario involves dealing Kemp. Now, just dealing the outfielder won't add $21.5 million to the potential spending money for the Braves as they would almost certainly have to include money to facilitate a deal. But say they have to include $20M in two equal installments over the next two seasons - that's still $10M less on 2018's payroll. That's a really good reliever or two pretty good relievers.

Obviously, it's difficult to look at the future offseason because of the front office turmoil and it's unlikely to be resolved very soon. That said, there's still a team to build for 2018 and by my count, the Braves are looking at between $20 million and $30 million of spending room before the Hot Stove is actually, ya know, hot. That may not seem like a lot - the Braves spent nearly $26 million on Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Sean Rodriguez for 2017 (minus whatever the Pirates paid for Rodriguez) - but if spent much more wisely, the investment could bring big-time dividends for the Braves as they look to turn the page.

Will Matt Adams be a Brave in 2018?

WSB-TV

When Freddie Freeman went down, the Braves started Jace Peterson at first and signed James Loney. And for a minute, we thought that was the best the Braves could do. John Coppolella changed that by acquiring Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. While expectations weren't great for Adams, he was clearly an upgrade over in-house options - including Loney who asked for a release. Adams, who had been stuck on the Cardinals bench after they moved Matt Carpenter to first base, would take off after arriving in Atlanta. Over 39 games while Freeman was out, he blitzed the league to the tune of .285/.333/.589 with 12 HR. So good was his performance that when Freeman was ready to return, the Braves took him up on his suggestion and moved their franchise cornerstone to third base just to keep Adams in the lineup.

That would last most of July and while Adams continued to produce, he definitely cooled down. As the calendar changed over to August, the Braves moved Freeman back to first base, leaving Adams to play left field in Matt Kemp's absence or pinch-hit. He's hit just .227 since but has bashed four homers - including two pinch-hit moonshots.

As the season rolls to an end, the Braves have a choice to make with Adams. Let's look at the options:

Trade him: Easier Said Than Done

In 2017, Adams was paid $2.8 million for his services and will be arbitration-eligible for just one more season. He's a career .270/.315/.470 hitter with 75 home runs. He falls under the spectrum of productive, but not so productive that other teams are willing to spend much in terms of assets to acquire him. The Braves traded a corner infielder who has hit just 13 home runs in 201 games and might only profile as a first baseman because his defense at third base is so suspect. First basemen without power don't tend to keep a job for very long (i.e. James Loney).

Adams does have power - a good deal of it - and can hit the ball hard. Adams currently rests just outside the Top 50 in Barrels per plate appearance, which rates the quality of contact. When he puts the bat on the ball, it has a good chance of finding a hole. Does he have .283 ISO-type power, like he has shown this year? It's probably not something he can sustain, but he qualifies as a true power hitter with a career .199 ISO. That's a big boost to his value.

However, several things are working against the Braves as they consider dealing Adams.

• He's platoon-dependent. Over his career, Adams has a .256 wOBA against lefties. It's just as miserable this season at .244. Unfortunately, every team has access to Fangraphs so they also have this information. Acquiring Adams only works if you can match him up with a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties in the Matt Diaz mold. 
• He's position-dependent. Adams is a fine first baseman. He's not gifted at the position by any means, but since 2014, Adams actually profiles better than Freeman as a first baseman (4.8 UZR/150, 17 rPM, 15 DRS). Nobody is paying anyone for first baseman defense, though. Adams has played just 129.1 innings in left field and we simply can't gauge much of anything of his numbers, but the eye test suggests that Adams is probably going to be a negative defensively. It's too much of a stretch to believe he can play anywhere else. He's a first baseman who might play left field for you in a pinch. That limits his value to NL clubs who know they are going to have to platoon him. The AL teams that could have interest do have the DH, which opens up more possibilities.
• He's under team control for just 2018. The Braves paid next-to-nothing to acquire Adams and that was with a year-and-a-half of team control. The team acquiring Adams will have even less.

None of these conditions will erase any chance the Braves have of trading Adams, but they certainly limit the opportunities. One thing could work in their favor, though. Of the 21 full-time qualified first basemen this season, five are free agents. Two others, Lucas Duda and Mike Napoli, didn't qualify but have been regulars in the lineup and could also be free agents this offseason (Napoli has an option). Further, a DH like Carlos Beltran will also hit the open market. In addition, the Angels are a team that might entertain the idea of improving their first base production after a combined 0.7 fWAR from C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, and Jefry Marte. Suffice it to say, the market is theoretically available for Adams.

That said, a number of open jobs at first base/DH doesn't mean the same thing as open jobs in center field or at shortstop, positions where the market is depressed by so few capable players at the position. A number of the free agents this offseason with history at first base were also free agents last year. This is because most teams look at first base in this regard - it's great if you have a Freeman, but if you don't, you can find something that will work. You don't even need to be in a rush. The Rays signed Logan Morrison a week before spring training for nearly $2 million less than they paid him the previous year. It worked out pretty well for them and they weren't alone. The first base market rarely invites huge paydays because teams can just wait it out and go bargain shopping.

With Adams likely to earn $4M to $5M in arbitration, would any team really spend assets to acquire a guy that resembles several free agents that are already available and won't require a prospect? For that matter, they could be even cheaper than Adams. This is a problem the Braves will face in regards to dealing Adams this winter.

Non-Tender Him: But Why?

The Braves could see Adams as a luxury they can do without and simply non-tender him to open a 40-man roster spot. Such a decision would be a mistake in my view.

At $5M or so, Adams is an expensive bench piece, but the Braves will probably be able to deal with that. If they don't sign a third baseman - and Ronald Acuna takes over in right field as many expect - the Braves will open the season with half of their position starters earning the major league minimum. It would be a fair assumption that two of their rotation members will also make the minimum. Paying $5M for a bench player becomes much more bearable when you aren't spending heavily at other positions.

Beyond that, Adams does have value - value that would be wasted as a non-tendered free agent. I mentioned many of the negatives earlier because that hurts his trade value, but his offensive value is still quite apparent as he has a .335 wOBA since 2013. That ranks 74th among 238 players and it's better than Adam Jones, Beltran, Todd Frazier, and Evan Gattis. And since we know that he's a platoon player, we can reasonably assume that his wOBA would only look better if you limited it to facing right-hand pitching. And why assume when we can just look it up? Since 2013, Adams' .355 wOBA against right-hand pitching ranks 59th of 482 players (min. 370 PA against RHP).

If the Braves were in a financial crunch, I'd understand non-tendering Adams if a trade market never materialized - which is a real possibility. But I don't believe Atlanta will have to worry about that so why not keep Adams? Further, perhaps a trade market would come together as players go down or don't perform after spring camp opens up. Regardless, just cutting Adams is short-sighted and I think more of John Coppolella than that.

Keep Him: Cause Why The Hell Not?

If the Braves can't trade Adams and non-tendering him is a dumb move, that leaves the third option - keep him. And frankly, it might be the best option available even if Atlanta gets much interest in Adams this offseason.

The Braves are unlikely to trade Matt Kemp this winter. It'd be great if they can, but the sheer amount of financial responsibility the Braves would have to shoulder just to unload Kemp might be too much for the Braves to accept. Trading Nick Markakis to open up a spot for Acuna seems like the easier and more likely play. That leaves Atlanta to hope Kemp loses all the weight, keeps it off, and performs once again. Pretty much the same thing they hoped for last winter.

Whatever the case, the Braves seem stuck here. Here's the thing, though. If you are willing to play Kemp in left field with all of his atrocious defense, why wouldn't you also be willing to play Adams out there? Both players need a defensive caddy (Hi, Lane Adams!) and with Kemp seemingly always dealing with hamstring and knee issues, having Matt Adams' bat around could be useful for the Braves. Yeah, the defense sucks, but honestly, Adams could be better than Kemp defensively. Here's a fun stat for all of you Josh Browns of the world. Sprint speed is measured by feet per second. 447 players qualify currently and ranking 398th is Kemp with a sprint speed of 25.6 ft/sec. Adams is slightly quicker at 26.1 ft/sec. While speed isn't everything (Ender Inciarte ranks 173rd overall), there's at least an argument that Adams is a comparable - maybe even better - left fielder than Kemp. Probably not better, but Kemp is so bad that Adams can't be any worse. Presumably, with even more time in left field, Adams stands a shot at improving. Not a good one, but we know Kemp isn't going to get any better.

Pinch-Hit Homers by the Braves

Remember when I said that keeping Adams maybe even better than trading him? Think about what the Braves might get for trading Adams. Well, we don't really know that, but we can make the reasonable assumption that it won't be greater than what the Braves gave up to originally acquire him. That would mean Atlanta would likely receive a borderline Top 75 prospect in this organization. Probably something between what they received for Jaime Garcia (Huascar Ynoa) and Brandon Phillips (Tony Sanchez). Now, that player could be a fun project, but it's probably going to be a guy who won't ultimately play for the Braves or turn into a good tradeable asset. And by the way...the Braves' lower minor league teams are already packed with project players.

Keeping Adams gives the Braves a bat off the bench - something they lacked when the 2017 season opened - who provides depth at 1B and LF. That depth could be important when you consider that Freeman has missed about 80 games to injury over the last three years (including a healthy 2016). Conversely, Kemp bends over and misses two weeks. That's being mean, but having Adams for depth could be useful to help the Braves should either player go down. Further, Adams could fetch a better prospect from a desperate team later. That last part is wishful thinking, but it's not impossible.

In the end, short of being surprised on the trade market this offseason, the best bet is to keep Adams moving forward into the 2018 season. Do you agree? Let me know in the comment section.

“Is Schuerholz running the club or are Hart and Coppolella running it?”

In an article for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal points to possible dissension within the Atlanta Braves front office. The article is behind a paywall so I won't quote it word-for-word, but the general perception is that Braves general manager John Coppolella and John Hart, the President of Baseball Operations, could be in a bit of a power struggle with Team Vice Chairman - and former GM and Team President - John Schuerholz. Rosenthal cites unnamed sources in the organization that suggest a number of internal shuffling of Schuerholz hires like Roy Clark and Dave Trembley as a possible sign that Coppy is either trying to squash dissent in the front office or at least see how many changes they can push past Schuerholz, who seemingly retains a good amount of team control.

One unnamed team official offers this particularly worrisome quote:

“It’s a power struggle over who is running the club...is John Schuerholz running the club or are John Hart and John Coppolella running it?”

If true...this is a bad sign for the Braves' organization. Worse - it's nothing new.

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It can be difficult for guys who are used to calling the shots to move to the side so that new decision makers are given the proper autonomy to lead an organization. That seems to run especially true for Schuerholz, who spent nine seasons at the helm of the Royals before 17 years as the Braves general manager. Rather than retire at the age of 67 when he finally moved aside for Frank Wren after the 2007 season, Schuerholz simply moved to a different position as the Team President. For an additional eight years, he held that spot before being promoted (?) to his new position of Team Vice Chairman in March of last season. The new role was created specifically for Schuerholz to keep him in the loop, but also keep him at an arm's reach as Schuerholz entered his late 70's.

It was supposed to be the Hart/Coppy show for the Braves with Hart providing leadership while Coppy handled the day-to-day grind that would likely make the young general manager lose his hair - if he had any to speak of, that is. However, things don't appear to have actually moved in that direction. And again, this is really nothing new for Schuerholz and "The Braves Way" culture, which has a stranglehold on the Braves' decision-making.

When Schuerholz moved up to the Team President role, he handpicked his successor in Frank Wren. Despite a contentious previous run as the Orioles' GM, Wren was lauded for his baseball mind and had spent a number of years providing support to Schuerholz in an assistant role. You couldn't blame the Braves for valuing consistency over a new direction of the franchise which had run off division title after division title from 1991 to 2005. The team still had Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and Bobby Cox in the fold along with a young nucleus led by Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Wren was given the keys, but Schuerholz's watchful eye was never far away.

According to many reports, Wren was difficult to work with and the culture shock soon grew hard on longtime Braves employees. Many, like Roy Clark, left the organization in droves. The most high profile defection would have been Cox himself, who nearly quit the Braves during their first spring training with Wren in charge. It took Schuerholz smoothing things over to keep the future Hall of Fame manager in charge. Major league managers with the kind of pull Cox had have often used the threat of their resignations to enact change. It took Jim Leyland blowing up and threatening to leave to avoid a Barry Bonds-to-the-Braves trade in March of 1992. Cox, known for a short temper, was agitated by what he felt was a micro manager trying to butt his nose where it didn't belong. Of course, considering that Wren joined the Braves eight years before becoming its general manager, why was his style such a surprise for so many people in the organization?

Despite the problems, the two put their differences aside and Wren eventually gave Cox a team that was playoff worthy in Cox's final year and third year with Wren calling the shots. Moving forward, whether Wren made the choice of who replaced Cox is debatable. Considering how much dissension would develop between Wren and Fredi Gonzalez, I tend to believe it wasn't Wren's choice - or at least it wasn't his choice alone. Instead, Schuerholz and Cox intervened with Cox essentially afforded the opportunity to select his successor in Gonzalez. Just 48 hours after Cox's final game as Braves' manager, the team had already named a new manager without even pretending to perform a search. Both the Schuerholz-to-Wren transition and the Cox-to-Gonzalez one were reflective more of a college football team replacing coaches with "coach-in-waiting" picks rather than a professional team seek out the best possible candidates available.

Wren and Gonzalez were not a good mix. The team that Wren wanted to build was one of power and pitching. The team Gonzalez wanted to coach was more traditional - one that put down bunts and put the ball in play. This was never more evident than in 2013 when Wren built the All-or-Nothing Braves, a team capable of big home runs and offense - and a lot of strikeouts. This was simply not the kind of team Gonzalez ever felt comfortable with. The two forces were never meant to co-exist and as the Braves collapsed in 2014, Wren wanted to fire Gonzalez for a manager better suited to take the young-and-talented mix he had built into contention for 2015. It was Cox who stepped in and saved the job of his handpicked successor by appealing to Schuerholz. Instead, it was Wren that fired.

What happened next was another sign that the Braves' organization was not too interested in radical change. Instead, they sought reverting back to "The Braves Way," something they felt Wren was never interested in following. Before announcing John Hart as the future choice to lead the Braves, the organization staged a GM search with Cox, Hart, and Schuerholz as the search team. It was a sham as Schuerholz and Cox simply convinced Hart to take the job full-time while they organized a power-sharing agreement with John Coppolella. The system was simple. Hart would take the hit as the organization blew the team up. Gone would be popular members of the Braves like Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel. The deals would have Hart's name on it, allowing the Braves to protect Coppy, who was the guy actually putting the trades together for Hart to sign off on. It was a convoluted process from the beginning.

Even before announcing the Hart/Coppy grouping, the Braves began to reshape the front office with Schuerholz calling the shots. He brought Roy Clark back into the mix, named Clark disciple Brian Bridges as scouting director, and Dave Trembley as the Farm Director. And frankly, the process began the year before with hires that were largely made without Wren's input the previous winter (including Hart as a senior adviser and Rick Williams as a special assistant to the GM). Once again, Schuerholz was putting his guys into place, which cuts the legs out from a GM making similar decisions.

All the while, the Braves kept Gonzalez at the helm. Well, of course, they did. They had Cox on the search team after all. It would take a truly rotten start to the 2016 team to finally stain Gonzalez enough to get rid of him. The Braves named long-term organizational filler Brian Snitker as his replacement. At the end of 2016, Snitker seemed like a longshot to return despite a solid end to the 2016 season. The Braves were valuing heavyweights like Ron Washington and Bud Black and Snitker just seemed overmatched. He also seemed like a questionable fit with Coppolella, who took a more innovative and nuanced approached to baseball than a traditionalist like Snitker (or Washington and Black for that matter). Instead of a more exciting younger hire, Snitker was promoted to full-time manager and Washington was brought on for added experience.

But the team only gave Snitker one year. It screamed of compromise, but why? Freddie Freeman had joined the ranks of baseball's elite in 2016 while dynamic young stars like Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Newcomb were either already in the majors or very close. The Braves seemed on the rise and the farm system was only getting better. The job had to be enticing with a new park, a winning tradition, and so many pieces in place. Why had the Braves settled for an organizational lifer as their manager? Why had they been so focused on guys like Black and Washington over younger and hungrier - not to mention better fits - like Dave Martinez, the longtime second-in-command under Joe Maddon? None of it made much sense.

Perhaps today's article by Rosenthal speaks to why these strange decisions have been made. For all of his flaws, could you really blame Wren for wanting to run the organization the way he wanted? For wanting the manager he wanted? For wanting to be the general manager the way he wanted to be a general manager? I would say no.

Three years later, many of the same figures are in place in high-profile or, at least, influential positions. Could we really blame Coppy for wanting more of an active role in deciding the makeup of the Braves front office - decisions he was not allowed the luxury of making after Wren's sacking in 2014? And if there is any truth to the idea that Coppy is testing the waters, what might come next? Could the Braves scrub most of the coaching staff, including its beleaguered manager, and start anew in 2018?

And shouldn't that be his decision anyway? After all, when the 2015 season concluded, the Braves elevated Coppolella to the general manager position. Isn't it about time the organization give him the responsibilities it once handed Schuerholz so willingly?

A lot of this is perception, I admit. We are not privy to the closed door meetings taking place. Perhaps Schuerholz has voluntarily moved to the side while telling his former pupil to, "call if you ever need to bounce ideas off someone." Maybe the article over-exaggerates the idea that there is any sort of power struggle between the two camps. I would like to believe that is the case, but we've seen this script before. Again, Wren had many flaws and made a number of poor decisions along the way. In no way am I suggesting that his firing wasn't appropriate. Nevertheless, the Braves did him few favors by micromanaging him nearly as much as he attempted to micromanage the organization. It would be a shame for them to do the same to such a capable GM in Coppolella.

After all, it's his team now.

Right?

Making Sense of Yesterday's Roster & Lineup Decisions

G-Braves Media

It was already going to be a big day as far as major league debuts go, but the surprising afternoon news of another new addition to the list of players to play in the bigs was a bit confusing at first. The decision to bring Ozzie Albies to the major leagues yesterday was given some context as the day went on.

Albies WAS NOT brought to the majors for an injury. He WAS NOT brought to the majors for to spend some time around the team. He WAS NOT even brought to the majors because the Braves needed depth. He WAS brought in as Brandon Phillips' replacement at second base. Quite simply, the Braves decided to bring Albies up to be the difference maker we believe he can be.

But that wasn't the only decision the Braves made yesterday. Let's look at each decision and what they mean for the Braves over the next couple of months.

The big news of the day was originally going to be Lucas Sims Day. One of the last holdovers from the Frank Wren regime, Sims was essentially handed Jaime Garcia's spot in the rotation after a brief reminder that Aaron Blair is unlikely to be the guy. Unless "the guy" is defined to mean "remember the guy who also came over with Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte?"

Sims went six innings while allowing six hits, including a homer, and three runs. He walked nobody and struck out three. He also got a pickoff and might have had a better night had Tyler Flowers not air-mailed a throw to third or had Danny Santana not gone all Roger Dorn on a hard grounder. Even with that in mind, it was the kind of game Braves fans have been clamoring for from the bounty of young starters the team has loaded up on for the last few years.

Regardless of what the future may hold for the young righty, the overall impression of Sims being in the majors is a good one. The right-handed fireballer had taken a big step forward this year and earned his right to join Sean Newcomb in the rotation. Atlanta needs to figure out what they have in these guys at some point and with the Braves effectively admitting the season is over, it's time to look toward 2018. Guys like Sims, Newcomb, and Albies will hopefully all be in the mix for that team.

And speaking of Albies, he went hitless in his debut, though he did walk in three trips to the plate. Surprisingly, before last night, the only two Braves to make their big league debut this season for a team very much in a youth movement were Johan Camargo and Newcomb. That total was doubled last night and the smart money suggests others are on their way.

The choice of Albies - at this moment - was a bit of a head scratcher, but let's put this into perspective. The Braves did not deal Brandon Phillips at the trading deadline. That's not to say they won't trade him this month as his contract will certainly pass through waivers, but as of right now, Phillips remains a Brave. That speaks to a shallow market for sure, but could it speak to something else? Could the Braves have had a deal on the table for Phillips that would send him elsewhere only for the second baseman to use his partial no-trade clause to block it?

The most likely answer is the one that Brian Snitker provided - "We got Brandon and he’s been really, really good. But it’s time to see the kid.”

What does this mean for Phillips moving forward? Well, he'll be given a chance to play third base should he choose to do so, but the bigger impression is this - his time with the Braves is limited. Atlanta could go with Phillips at second and Albies at shortstop while shifting Camargo to third (more on that in a sec), but that doesn't seem something they are currently interested in. Right now, it's Albies at second and that's going to be a regular thing.

Which is good. Like Swanson before him, if Albies is in the majors, he should be in the lineup. For now, it looks like he'll share the middle of the diamond with Camargo. In an almost funny way, the Braves have never kept Albies and Swanson together for very long. Despite being the expected double play combo for the next decade, the duo hasn't spent a lot of time together outside of a month-and-a-half last season in Mississippi before Swanson was called up to the majors.

As I said, for the moment, Camargo is at shortstop, but it doesn't seem likely that he'll be joined by Freddie Freeman on the left side of the infield. Instead, Freeman will be shifted to first base - which is weird simply because Freeman actually hasn't been that bad at third base. Instead of Freeman at third, it looks like Sean Rodriguez and Danny Santana will share the position for the time being. When rosters expand, we'll probably see more lineups with Rio Ruiz returning and Swanson likely pushing Camargo to third base more.

Where does that leave Matt Adams? In left field - at least until Matt Kemp returns. He got the start last night but left the game after just five innings due to dizziness. What that means to the future of Adams playing left field is unknown. What is very confusing about this move is that Freeman is a better third baseman than Adams is a left fielder, yet the Braves went in this direction. Some have suggested that Adams playing left field is better for his trade value. I don't know how to respond to that without laughing.

Whatever the motivation for benching Phillips and sending Adams to left might be - and I'm betting it's simply that they didn't find any real takers at the deadline - the Braves seem content with their decisions from last night provided Adams doesn't suffer any more dizziness issues. So, that leaves us with Sims and Albies taking up new important roles with the team, potentially the Matt Adams Plays Left Field Experience and a mix of Rodriguez and Santana at third base. Defensively, this is not ideal and this is was not a very good defense to begin with.

For Braves fans, as confusing as the last 24 hours have been, one thing is for certain - having Albies and Sims begin another youth movement makes the Braves more fun and exciting to watch. Considering they are 3-12 since getting to .500, that's at least something.

The Freeman-To-Third 120 Inning Checkup

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I hated the idea of moving an elite first baseman to third base. It's difficult enough to play third base, but to chance your franchise cornerstone at a position he seemed unlikely to play at a decent rate? Why in the world would you do something like that? Just because he suggested it? Who's running the team?

And yes, I put a few of these arguments on this blog. I compared the hypothetical third-base-playing Freeman to Johan Camargo, which was unfair because Camargo is a very good third baseman (better than he is a shortstop, I'd wager). I compared the idea of Freeman playing third to Miguel Cabrera playing the position for the Tigers and how poorly Cabrera played it. My overall point was, "Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season?"

Boy, that looks like a typical blogger's overreaction. To this point, Freeman looks quite capable of playing the hot corner and maybe even staying there. Let me give you some numbers. Of major league third baseman with 120 innings at the position this year...

Freeman ranks tied for 12th in DRS with some pretty good defensive players in Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado. He ranks 13th in rPM. He ranks 10th in RZR.

But short sample size...

Freeman is now 24th in UZR/150 and climbing. He could be in the top 20 by mid-August and even higher by season's end.

But Tommy, it's just 120 innings...

And did you see some of the plays he's been making? The double play he started the other day? Catching this liner? The guy's a natural.



But...

Okay, I do hear you. It's an exceedingly short sample size. There are 54 players who have played 120+ innings at third base this year and defensive metrics, in general, aren't valuable until we have a couple of years in the tank to compare-and-contrast with. It's not that I don't get that and his numbers could regress to the point that Freeman isn't a better-than-average third baseman. Or maybe not even an average third baseman. Regardless, we might know a few things.

He's not an embarrassment at the position - something many of us (myself included) feared he'd be. He might not even lose overall value at the position. In fact, because third base is a more difficult position to play, he might see his value increased. That's a pretty difficult thing to do when you're an elite superstar at another position, but league-average defense at a tougher-to-play position is a more valuable asset. Finally, the Braves could head into next year with Freeman penciled in at third base and not feel like it is a huge problem.

None of that should be construed as believing Freeman shouldn't be moved back to first base. I do feel the Braves would be better off with that because, in a perfect world, the Braves have Dansby Swanson back and hitting at shortstop with Camargo slotting over to third base for the time being. But while Freeman isn't Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, or Jedd Gyorko at the position, to this point, he's also not Maikel Franco or Jake Lamb. For that matter, he's also not Chris Johnson or Adonis Garcia. He won't win a Gold Glove, but he seems capable enough of not hurting the team. Isn't that all the Braves were hoping for in the first place?

Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

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Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Monday Recap: Sweep, Buying/Selling, Early Freeman at 3B Metrics

Welcome to this week's quick Monday Recap. With just three games to review because of the All-Star Break, we won't have to spend too much time on them. Want to point out a few things before we look back at the week that just concluded. We posted our Midseason Top 50 Prospects last week with contributors Ryan Cothran and Stephen Tolbert pitching in. Ryan's been with WOW for awhile now, but Tolbert recently joined. He's already posted two columns - one on the prospect of trading Ozzie Albies and the other on comparing Sean Newcomb and Rich Hill's respective spin rates on their curveballs. Both are worthy of your consideration.

And with that said, it's on with the show.

July 10-13, Idle
All-Star Break

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July 14, 4-3 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta twice gave up single-run leads, but Freddie Freeman put the Braves ahead for good with a two-run single in the 8th. Ender Inciarte led off the inning with a single before Brandon Phillips doubled to set the stage for Freeman's heroics. Freeman also broke a 1-1 tie in the sixth with a deep home run. Atlanta got their other run in the first when Inciarte doubled and came around later in the inning on a Matt Kemp two-out single. R.A. Dickey continued his solid work, throwing six innings and allowing just one on eight hits and two walks. He also struck out four. Sam Freeman allowed a home run to Paul Goldschmidt while Jose Ramirez wasn't helped by a bad thow by Tyler Flowers on a stolen base attempt. His throw went into center field and allowed a runner to reach third. A wild pitch briefly put the D'Backs on top. Jim Johnson worked a perfect ninth with a strikeout of Goldschmidt to end the game.

July 15, 8-5 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
The Braves used 14 hits and two home runs from each of their last two opening day second basemen to score eight runs and win Saturday's night affair. Phillips got the Braves on the board with a game-tying home run in the third, his eighth. He then put the Braves on top in the fifth with a RBI double. The lead was short lived as a pair of runs, charged to Mike Foltynewicz put Arizona ahead in the sixth. The Braves would fight back in the bottom half of the inning. With old friend Randall Delgado on the mound, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis led off the inning with singles. Delgado got the next two, but Dansby Swanson worked a walk. Lane Adams followed with a bases-clearing pinch-hit double. Andrew Chafin replaced Delgado and his first pitch was hit by Ender Inciarte for a RBI single to score Adams and put the Braves up 6-3. Kurt Suzuki picked up a RBI in the 7th and after the Diamondbacks scored twice in the 8th to pull closer, Jace Peterson led off the 8th with a pinch-hit home run that still hasn't landed. Johnson cruised through the ninth for another save. It was an average night for Folty, who struggled with his control over his 5.1 innings.

July 16, 7-1 WIN vs. Diamondbacks
Atlanta gets to .500 with an efficient offensive attack. They would leave just four runners on base while scoring seven runs. In the third, Matt Kemp bashed a three-run bomb and Matt Adams smacked his 15th later in the frame. That was the game-changing frame for the Braves, who scored in each of the first four innings. Brandon Phillips doubled three times and drove in tow runs while Ender Inciarte singled twice. Jaime Garcia pitched well, allowing just one run in seven innings. He scattered four singles, walked three, and struck out seven. Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris worked perfect frames with Morris striking out a pair. The sweep at home was the Braves' first sweep at SunTrust since the four-game set to open the park against the Padres in mid-April.

This week's Record: 3-0
Season Record: 45-45, 2nd Place in the NL East, 9.5 GB

Minor League Week in Review
Gwinnett: 3-1...40-52, 2nd Place in the North, 9.5 GB
Mississippi: 2-5...6-17 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the Southern, 6 GB
Florida: 2-3...9-13 (2nd Half), 5th Place in the North, 4.5 GB
Rome: 1-4...8-12 (2nd Half), 6th Place in the Southern, 7.5 GB
Danville: 2-4...11-13, 3rd Place in the West, 7 GB
GCL: 3-3...9-9, 2nd Place in Northeast, 1.5 GB
DSL: 1-4...11-24, 7th Place in Northwest, 13 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves stay at home for three more games with the Cubs coming for a visit for two nights games before a matinee on Wednesday. It's the first time the Braves have faced the Cubs this season and they'll return the favor at the end of August by visiting Wrigley. After Wednesday's game, the Braves head on a cross-country trip to visit the Dodgers for four games to finish the week. The first three will be late night games for Braves fans while Sunday's will be a mid-afternoon start at 4:10 EST.

Three Last Things
1) Buying Or Selling?

It's hard not to have this debate. After sweeping Arizona, the Braves have reached .500 for the first time since early April. They are midway through a tough part of their schedule that included games with the Astros, Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, and a second series with Arizona in addition to the one that just completed. They've held their own so far, winning 5-of-9.

The Braves General Manager, John Coppolella, has been attached to Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Justin Verlander, and Michael Fulmer. Atlanta is also said to have an interest in Jurickson Profar. What the Braves ultimately may do may be decided by July 26. At that point, the Braves will have finished a 10-game stretch against the Cubs, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. If they are still at .500 or higher, the Braves might be an aggressive buyer. If they slip, they could sell.

Regardless, Braves fans universally agree about one thing - it feels good to care again.

2) Roster Issues

For the first time in a long time, the Braves might be sending down productive players because of a roster crunch. With Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez likely to return tomorrow, Lane Adams might be sent back to Gwinnett. Adams has been one of the few guys able to come off the bench and get a pinch hit here-and-there for the Braves. His six pinch-hits not only lead the team, but count for a quarter of all of Atlanta's pinch-hits this season. He's also belted a homer and added a double. But with Santana fresh off a five-hit game on a rehab assignment and super utility player Rodriguez ready to contribute, Adams seems pushed out for now. Jace Peterson, who joined Adams and Santana as the only Braves to have a pinch-hit homerun this season on Sunday, will likely head down as well.

Further roster decisions will have to be made in regards to a pitcher. Dan Winkler began his rehab assignment a month ago and is only given 30 days before the Braves have to make a decision. He's struck out nine over as many minor league innings, but also gave up eight runs. His rehab appears either halted, though. He hasn't pitched in ten days.

Something similar happened to Chaz Roe. His rehab assignment was halted after the Braves designated him for assignment. It didn't make much news, but on Thursday, he was outrighted to Gwinnett. I have seen reports that Winkler's rehab received a rare 30-day extension. Over the coming days, we'll see if that was accurate or if Winkler went through a similar fate as Roe. (Edit: According to Mark Bowman, it was accurate as the Braves have extended Winkler's rehab 30 days. H/t to Dan Keetz for this.)

3) Early Defensive Metrics Unkind to FF3B

It takes a long time for defensive metrics to really even out to the point that they tell us anything valuable. Often, we don't want to put too much importance in them without a career baseline to compare numbers to.

So...don't take this seriously.

Freddie Freeman's defensive metrics are HORRIBLE at third base! -89.3 UZR/10! Wow! He's handled ten plays and committed an error. Of the three plays in his zone, he's made two successful plays. In addition, Freeman is 9-of-10 on routine plays according to Inside Edge Fielding. He's 0-for-2 on remote plays (expected rate is between 1 and 10%) To be fair, he hasn't made a remote play at first base since 2014.

Well, what did you expect from a first baseman playing third base anyway? Of course, the Braves have also won a number of those games so they are getting exactly what they hoped for.