Some Waves are Bigger than Others

There are some in Braves country that are getting annoyed with the rebuild, and I get it (but don't agree with the mindset). The Braves traded some of their biggest names in Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, and Andrelton Simmons, and thus far have not seen the fruits of that labor at the Major League level. Since the rebuild commenced, the MLB team has looked pretty lackluster, and even the pitching talent that has surfaced has likely not been what is expected...or at least advertised. 

However, if you look outside the Braves front office fluffing of a few of the early pitching prospects, you get an unbiased look at what was expected of some of these guys, and while the "ceiling" has not been met, the expectation was MUCH, MUCH less than what our fans or front office claimed.

But fret not Braves fans. On a daily basis, I get to set my eyes upon the wonders of the Gulf of Mexico and I can assure you that some waves are bigger than others. If you're familiar with the color-coded flags that frequent the panhandle of Florida that determine wave conditions, you'll be familiar with the green, yellow, red, and double red flags. Here are their descriptions:

• GREEN FLAG- Calm Condition
• YELLOW FLAG- Moderate Surf/Currents
• RED FLAG- High Hazard
• DOUBLE RED FLAG- Beach Closed to the Public

These flags represent the Braves rebuild, especially that of the pitching variety. We are in the midst of this thing, but it's about to get really rocky for other MLB teams.

LET'S GO GREEN!!!!

Two years ago the first wave of the rebuild showed up and, no doubt, it was of the green flag variety. It wasn't a threat to the other MLB clubs. But the problem was in how it was presented to the masses. Let's break down a few guys: 

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

1. Matt Wisler- Every outlet that projected this guy saw him as a guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, but prior to his promotion he was being pushed as a guy to build on by the Braves brass. This was wish-casting and fast-forward to 2017, Wisler's being converted to relief at AAA after failing to keep his ERA below 4 since 2013.

2. Mike Foltynewicz- Immediately, when Mike was traded for, Braves started discussing front-line rotation stuff.  Unlike Wisler, this wasn't much of a stretch, but many prospect gurus agreed that the floor of "back-end relief" was more likely. Fast forward 3 years, and there are flashes but it mostly looks like he'll be a mid-rotation guy for his career...and that's a win for the Braves.

3. Aaron Blair- "Mid-rotation workhorse" ceiling that turned into a big dumpster fire at the MLB level. And this tidbit: He miraculously lost 3 MPH on his fastball when he donned a Braves uni. He's now sporting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and a mid-4s ERA at AAA.

4. Tyrell Jenkins- "Back-end rotation" ceiling now out of a job after being released by the Padres in July. Many, including myself, got caught up in his dynamic personality and decent ERA despite having poor peripherals that showed their true colors against the best baseball hitters in the game.

So, the GREEN FLAG wave has passed and as of now, only 1 of the 4 have come close to prospect projections. Is this more a lesson in prospect projections? Patience? Expectations? Really, it's all of the above. It is pretty rare for baseball players to live up to the hype of their prospect status, but the expectations that were thrown on this first wave to bear fruit were unfair to the players and the fans, not to mention the pressure the front office put on them with unreachable ceilings. But baseball is hard, and the guys above still have plenty of time to grow into their projections.

They call me MELLOW YELLOW

The Braves are in the midst of their YELLOW FLAG wave. These are guys with higher ceilings but have not put it all together in the MLB or MilB.

1.Sean Newcomb- The poster child for the YELLOW FLAG as Sean has a ceiling that is likely as high as anyone in the entire system, but is still plagued by control issues that were still present at Gwinnett. It's not a bad strategy for him to try to work through control issues in the midst of a punt year, but it'll be interesting to see what happens next year when the Braves are supposedly going to try to compete for the division and likely won't have the patience to run a pitcher out every 5th day plagued with the same issues that have cursed his baseball career. 

Rick Briggs via Flickr (CC by SA 2.0)

2. Lucas Sims- Once considered the Braves best-pitching prospect, Sims is now overshadowed by 2 handfuls of pitchers throughout the system.  Like Newcomb, Sims has been plagued by the ol' 4-baller, but that's taken care of itself over the last 2 years, but at what cost?  What made Sims valuable at a younger age was a fastball that had lots of movement and could hit 96.  Now his fastball sits in the low-90s. At Gwinnett this year, it didn't effect his strikeout rate as he was punching out over 10 per 9. However, in the MLB it's down to 4.7, albeit in a very small sample. The thing about Sims is if you look at projecting the Braves over the next 4-5 years, he doesn't seem to have the sticking power to stay in the rotation. His ceiling is much lower now than what it was after his age 19-season, and current projections have him as a back end guy/high-leverage reliever. It's my opinion that Sims received his 2017 chance due to his 40-man roster placement, not his performance, which was good but not really call-up worthy. As part of the yellow wave, I think Sims' best chance to stay in a rotation would be in a rotation that doesn't have a tomahawk across the chest. 

3. Max Fried- Fried is a poster child for small samples, both good and bad. His overall body of work has looked very pedestrian, but he flashes brilliance on a regular basis. Like Sims, Fried is likely on the MLB roster due to his position on the 40-man roster, but also the Braves are likely trying to keep his innings down as they've been extra cautious with guys coming off of Tommy John surgery. All of Fried's pitches are still present and his hook looks as filthy as ever, but something has held him back from tapping consistently into greatness. My guess is simply location as there's nothing else that can be pinpointed to mediocrity. He's one to keep an eye on as his ceiling is that of a 3-4 starter, but health could take him down as low as middle relief.

Red Flag?  SKIP THAT! DOUBLE RED FLAG IN FULL-EFFECT in 2018!!!

2018, the bulk of high-end pitching prospects will be at full-bloom at some point in time during the year, and it could be a wonder to behold!  Our next group all have front-line potential (number 1-2 starters) and this isn't organizational fluff but real prospect gurus with real projections.

1. Luiz Gohara- 20 years of age and flying through the minors after being mercifully removed from the Mariners' organization, Gohara might have the highest ceiling of all the pitching prospects with a serious left-handed power arm that's capable of striking out the fiercest of opponents. His issues stem from problems outside the diamond of which I'm not willing to delve into, but if he can keep those at bay, look out MLB.

2. Mike Soroka- Comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is setting them up for failure, so I'm not going to do that, but Soroka's pinpoint control is reminiscent of Maddux's reputation. Also only 20, Soroka is on pace to see time in the MLB as early as April of 2018, and I cannot possibly imagine a scenario where he's not in the bigs by 2018's end. Works low in the zone and uses every scrap of the plate, and if Tyler Flowers has anything to do with it, he'll use bits right outside the plate as well. With 3 plus pitches in his arsenal, this dude's the real deal. While he might not have the front-line arsenal of Gohara, his control could put him in the conversation.

3. Kolby Allard- At 19, the Braves might be pumping the brakes on this young stud as he's run into his first professional stretch where he hasn't dominated. Like Soroka, Allard has 3 plus-pitches and can run a FB up to 97, but normally ranges from 91-94. The fastball has lots of movement and his curve has different levels of break depending on the velocity. He's in AA and I think he stays there the rest of this year and maybe part of 2018. From there, it's anyone's guess, but I think his MLB debut happens sometime in 2019.

4. Touki Toussaint- If you were like me (don't be like me) you rated Touki lower on the prospect chart due to an inflated ERA that's been present his entire MiLB career. Like I said, don't be me and listen to others when they say Touki was, and still is, raw, but he is really coming around these last 4-5 starts. Like Gohara, if everything goes right, oh boy! Hold on to your seat because he's going to rocket. For now, his 95 MPH fastball and ridiculous curveball will make its home in Pearl, MS where he'll make foes look like fools. My bet is he'd be on the Allard track.

5. Kyle Wright- Could the Braves push Wright to MLB next year? You bet your butt they could...but I wouldn't expect it. Like Dansby, Wright is a polished pitcher that's got the frame and arsenal to be great. If the Braves need a push from a pitcher late in 2018, Wright could be that guy. However, 2019 seems more realistic and that's only 1.5 years in the Minors, a little more than Dansby.

Calm after the Storm? HECK NO!!! RED FLAG COMING IN!!!!

This group could very well become a named storm, let's call it Hurricane Arm Overload, and that would put them into DOUBLE RED FLAG status if they continue to develop, but for now, let's just appreciate them for kicking butt in the system. Most of these guys are early in their development and while most players they're facing off against are older, they're still in Low-A or below (or injured) and I've learned valuable lessons about projecting guys as "stars" when they're still in the lower minors (or injured). Watch closely to this group's development when they get to Double-A and beyond. I most definitely have high hopes.

1. Ian Anderson- Only 19 years old, Braves 1st round pick from 2016 is sitting 'em down at Low-A and has a body to grow into. Can already run it up to 97, and has the projections to be a #2-3 guy.

2. Joey Wentz- Also only 19, and has been a personal favorite of mine since the draft (and I have articles to prove it!), I think he's going to be really special. Putting up best numbers in the system at Low-A with a mid-90s peak fastball, and a change up and curve that's reportedly getting better every outing. The athleticism is the game-changer here and Wentz was a serious 2-way star coming out of high school and that should really pay dividends on the mound. Early projections show his ceiling as a mid-rotation pitcher.

3. Bryse Wilson- The surprise of the system thus far, and forgive me if I repeat things, but Bryse is also 19 years of age. Only surpassed by Wentz, Bryse is sporting a 2.36 ERA with a great K-rate, low-BB rate, and a knack for controlling the zone. The knock on him when drafted was that scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen, but man oh man he's proving he can play up. Working off of his fastball that sits the mid-90s, Bryse has a curve/slurve that's very effective and a change-up that is developing with every outing. Early projections show him as a mid-to-back end rotation pitcher.

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4. Kyle Muller- Pitching at Danville, Muller seems to be a bit behind in development from the 3 above, but it'd only take 2-3 dominant performances for him to be right in the mix. Muller most definitely has one of the more suitable frames for longevity as he's coming in at 6'6 225. Fastball sits at 92-93 but many reports I saw right after the draft had it pushing 95. I think we will see added velo to his fastball before it's said and done and he's likely toned it down to work on command which is very common for pitchers in the Braves system. Like Wentz, Muller is known for his athleticism and that should help his cause on the mound. A 3 pitch arsenal that's being fine tuned and has a 4th pitch that he's playing around with for now, Muller has the makeup to become an overnight surprise. Was in extended ST for a while nursing an ailment so I wouldn't doubt if he's up in Low-A by the end of the season when mass promotions will once again pour over the southeast like a summer thunderstorm.

5. Patrick Weigel- There's no doubt that Weigel would be in the Double Red Flag group above had it not been for his season-ending Tommy-John surgery at June's end. Like Muller, Weigel has a frame for eating innings if his arm can agree with his body post-surgery. Weigel works off of his fastball which sits 95ish and moves up to 100 on occasions. Weigel was promoted to AAA after 7 dominant starts in AA and ran into some hiccups. However, it was reported that his velo took a nosedive in the last 2-3 starts before being pulled on June 18th after only 3.1 innings.  Due to the Braves extreme caution on Tommy John victims, Weigel likely won't see action again until 2019 or at earliest Winter Ball in 2018 which, in turns, begs the question, "Does Weigel remain a starter?" The short answer for me is yes, but I don't think that'll be his role in MLB. If he can stay healthy, I think Weigel becomes a back-end bullpen threat where he's asked to come in and let it fly. Focusing on 2 dominant pitches in his fastball and curveball and keeping the 3rd (changeup) in his back pocket to keep hitters honest, Weigel could be a serious force for years.

WELL, that's all folks!  Don't fret when looking at the current fruits of the Braves pitching prospects that have peaked into the bigs this year. Dominance is coming and we are going to have wave after wave after wave for years to come.

Go BRAVES!!!

The Walk-Off Walk Midseason Top 50

Welcome to the Walk-Off Walk Midseason Top 50. For the first time in this blog's history, the rankings won't just be my thoughts on the matter, but the product of three different voices chiming in. In addition to me, Ryan Cothran has submitted his version and the new addition to the blog, Stephen Tolbert, has gotten in on the act as well.

Below is the list. Shortly before I posted this, I also posted a Walk-Off Talk with all three of us throwing out our thoughts on a variety of things such as the top pick, certain surprises in the rankings, and a few players who should climb up the rankings very soon. When you're done digesting our overall list, scroll down or click here to check it out.

There are a couple of criteria that must be met to be on this list. One, the prospect has to be 25-and-under. Second, the prospect still must retain rookie eligibility. Dansby Swanson exhausted his eligibility this season - meaning, he cannot be a rookie again. Speaking of Swanson, he's one of 13 players to not make this list after being part of my Top 50 during the preseason. Swanson, who was #1, was joined by Luke Jackson (#24) as players who graduated off the list. Juan Yepez(#27) was traded while Steve Janas (#41) was released. The remaining nine players simply fell off, led by Michael Mader at #28.

Finally, when there was a tie among prospects average ranking, I lifted Andy Harris's tie-breaking rule and went with the top individual ranking from any three contributors. This happened four times during the Top 50.

With that in mind, here is the list. Included is the player's previous rank and each of his three placements in the WOW contributors' lists. Again, remember to read our accompanying piece.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
1.	Ronald Acuna	9	2	2	1
2.	Ozzie Albies	3	3	1	2
3.	Kyle Wright	UR	1	3	3
4.	Kevin Maitan	5	7	4	4
5.	Kolby Allard	5	4	7	5
6.	Mike Soroka	6	6	5	6
7.	Sean Newcomb	2	4	8	7
8.	Luiz Gohara	7	8	6	10
9.	Ian Anderson	10	10	9	8
10.	Joey Wentz	14	9	10	17

A lot of agreement overall in regards to the top ten prospects in the system as only Wentz's ranking by Tolbert had him outside the Top 10. Allard and Soroka, drafted with consecutive Braves' choice in 2015 and headlining the Mississippi rotation as 19 year-olds, both had an average rank of 5.67. All three writers were in agreement over the Top 3 prospects, but each had a slightly different take.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
11.	Alex Jackson	21	16	12	9
12.	Travis Demeritte	13	13	14	12
13.	Austin Riley	12	12	15	13
14.	Touki Toussaint	8	11	22	11
15.	Patrick Weigel	17	14	11	23
16.	Kyle Muller	16	20	16	15
17.	Bryse Wilson	46	22	13	18
18.	Lucas Sims	18	17	18	20
19.	Cristian Pache	26	18	24	14
20.	Dustin Peterson	15	15	19	24

After a lot of the same players showed up in each contributor's Top 10, half of the next ten included players a member of WOW ranked outside the Top 20. Poe learned from his previous mistake and pushed Bryse Wilson up the rankings 24 spots, but still ranked him lower than anybody else and five spots below his WOW rank. Cristian Pache had a much smaller climb but jumped seven spots to #19th. Dustin Peterson became the second member of the rankings to win a tie-breaker after tying with an average of 19.33 but winning based on Poe's 14th placement.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
21.	Max Fried	11	19	17	22
22.	Drew Waters	UR	25	25	16
23.	Johan Camargo	UR	27	21	21
24.	A.J. Minter	19	24	20	26
25.	Rio Ruiz	20	23	29	19
26.	Brett Cumberland	25	21	23	28
27.	Derian Cruz	23	31	26	25
28.	Anfernee Seymour	47	29	30	35
29.	Akeel Morris	30	33	32	31
30.	Tyler Pike	UR	26	28	43

As the rankings increase, we start to see much more diversity in thought. Tyler Pike, one of three previously unranked players among this group of ten, makes the Top 30 despite being ranked #43 in Tolbert's ranking. In addition, a pair of players in Anfernee Seymour and Akeel Morris rank higher in the composite rankings than any of their rankings in each of the contributor's three lists. Both Seymour and Pike are among the four biggest climbers with the aforementioned Bryse Wilson joining them. However, nobody jumped higher than Johan Camargo, who goes from unranked to #23.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
31.	Ricardo Sanchez	33	30	38	30
32.	Yunior Severino	44	36	33	33
33.	Abraham Gutierrez	43	39	37	27
34.	Randy Ventura	UR	43	27	34
35.	Drew Harrington	UR	28	49	32
36.	Lucas Herbert	32	42	31	36
37.	Freddy Tarnok	UR	UR	35	29
38.	Braxton Davidson	22	32	39	47
39.	Ray-Patrick Didder	31	35	34	UR
40.	Caleb Dirks	34	34	36	UR

For the first time, we begin to see guys appear who wasn't even on all three lists as Freddy Tarnok reaches #37 despite not being on Poe's list. Ricardo Sanchez is the last player whose combined rankings equal less than 100. Drew Harrington and Lucas Herbert tied with an average of 36.33, but Harrington's top individual ranking of #28 secures the #35th spot for him. Braxton Davidson dropped 16 spots, one of biggest declines in the rankings compared to preseason. Randy Ventura makes this list after being included in the preseason 5 Looking In accompanying article to the Top 50. He's the only one of that group to do so.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
41.	Isranel Wilson	51	47	40	37
42.	Jason Hursh	UR	37	46	42
43.	Kade Scivicque	45	44	42	39
44.	Drew Lugbauer	UR	UR	41	40
45.	Matt Withrow	29	38	UR	44
46.	Tyler Neslony	UR	45	43	48
47.	Jesse Biddle	35	40	48	49
48.	Devan Watts	UR	41	47	UR
49.	Juan Contreras	UR	50	UR	38
50.	William Contreras	39	46	44	UR

The final ten prospects had a great deal of variety. Five are new to the rankings after not making the preseason one. Jason Hursh returns to the Top 50 rankings after getting removed in the preseason. Drew Lugbauer becomes the fourth member of the 2017 draft class to join the Top 50. In addition, Hursh and Kade Scivicque came down to a tiebreaker. As did Devan Watts and Juan Contreras. One last note - Izzy Wilson was originally going to rank as the #49th top prospect in the preseason list, but a trade after the list began, which added Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara to the organization, prompted me to push the preseason list to a Top 52. No such need this year.

Players also receiving votes included Yefri Del Rosario, Leudys Baez, Luis Valenzuela, Wes Parsons, Burrows, Ryan Lawlor, Troy Bacon, and Yenci Pena.

Keep scrolling to read the authors' reasoning for how they arrived at their choices.

Transaction Tuesday: Weigel, Ruiz, Cumberland, Severino

For the first time this season, the Braves have all seven minor league squads up-and-running. No longer will players get "demoted" to Danville just to get them off the active roster for a few days. I don't include all the moves to set the Danville and GCL rosters, but did include a few that correlated with promotions/demotions. Further, we have a release and a retirement in this week's recap. Let's dive in.

*Prospect Rankings come from the WOW Preseason Top 50.

Atlanta

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Promoted from Gwinnett: Jace Peterson...Hopefully, the minor league assignment did him well. Peterson was on fire over 17 games with Gwinnett with a .338/.450/.477 slash. He also played all over, logging time at three infield positions and all three outfield spots. As I mentioned last week, the Braves nearly avoided burning Peterson's final option this year but were a day late in bringing him back.

In addition, the Braves officially signed a number of their draft choices along with three undrafted free agents (RHP Hayden Deal and Walter Borkovich, IF Carlos Baerga Jr.). For more on them, check out Outfield Fly Rule.

Gwinnett
Demoted from Atlanta: Rio Ruiz (#20)...He got 31 games to prove himself, but Ruiz fell on his face after a promising start after arriving in the majors to replace an injured Adonis Garcia. He struck out too much and simply wasn't able to get on base enough. With the emergence of Johan Camargo, Ruiz was riding the bench, which isn't a good fit for a position-limited player on a short four-man bench. Ruiz has taken the demotion in stride, banging out six hits in 16 AB with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts.

Activated: Emerson Landoni...After four trips to the DL this year, Landoni has logged just eleven games. He's depth and his trips to the DL are likely not injury-related.

Retired: Braeden Schlehuber...He's been around forever, but his career finally came to a close last week. Originally drafted back in 2008 out of Southern Nevada, Schlehuber struggled with the bat in every season outside of 2012. That year, he hit .270/.328/.439 with Lynchburg and appeared in his only All-Star Game. Since 2015, he's spent most of his time with on the Gwinnett roster or on the Gwinnett DL. This year alone, he was on the DL three times and played just six games. But the DL is used often for "phantom injuries" at the minor league level - especially for catchers who provide depth. I imagine Schlehuber will stick with the organization in a different role, but maybe he just wants to get away from the game for a little while. Added note...Schlehuber was the first Random Prospect I profiled. Reading that post, it's clear this blog has come a long way.

DL'd: Patrick Weigel (#17)...Well, this is unfortunate. Last week, he showed up on the DL with the scariest sentence relating to a pitcher in baseball as he was scheduled for a meeting with Dr. James Andrews. Nothing has been released in regards to that so we are just waiting and preparing. Weigel got off to a dominant start with Mississippi and after a bad second start with Gwinnett (eight runs in one inning), he had settled had settled into a very solid five starts before his June 18th game where he gave up nine runs. There was talk of decreased velocity in that go-around.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Devan Watts...Another find for the scouting department. He was picked in the 17th round out of Tusculum College last year. You know Tusculum, right? The school that produced Dale Alexander, who finished 11th in the MVP balloting back in 1932? Watts gave up two runs in 23.2 innings last year between Danville and Rome. This season, he's allowed a few more. Six, to be exact. Still, his ERA is just 1.95 and he's striking out over a batter an inning with great control. He made his Double-A debut last week with a one-walk, one-strikeout frame. He's one to watch.

Activated: Joseph Odom...Last week marked the first time Odom has been activated this season. He was coming off a mixed bag last year where he hit well during his third year in the Carolina League but struggled after a midseason promotion to Mississippi. He's a solid defensive option behind the plate, but the bat is unlikely to be better than below-average.

DL'd: Joey Meneses...In a way, Meneses reminds me of Adam LaRoche. Not in the sense that'll develop into a pretty good option at first base, but that he often needs repeat assignments to get his bat going at a level. He debuted with Rome in 2013 but struggled. Returning to Rome, he bashed the SALLY League during an injury-shortened 2014. He headed to Carolina next and again struggled. He returned in 2016 and blitzed the league to earn a spot with Mississippi, where he struggled over the season's final two-and-a-half months. Wouldn't ya know it that he's doing well this year? At his current rate, he should be figuring out Triple-A pitching in 2019.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Oriel Caicedo...This is Year 7 of Caicedo's career (though he lost one year due to injury). Last week, he made his debut at High-A. He has tremendous control and generally posts good numbers, but is just a guy.

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Promoted from Rome: Brett Cumberland (#25)...After a slow start, Cumberland exploded in Rome for a .263/.432/.531 slash. He bashed 10 homers to go along with 15 doubles over 55 games and was hit by a pitch 25 times. Typically, Atlanta lets its minor leaguers spend a year in low-A, but as a college draftee, Cumberland earned a promotion up the chain. Pairing him with Alex Jackson gives Florida two big-hitting prospects who both need to get better behind the plate. In his first three games with Florida, Cumberland has a single, a double, and yes, he's been hit-by-a-pitch.

Promoted from Rome: Adam McCreery...Acquired last season as a project for Jhoulys Chacin, the former Angels' 22nd rounder has shown much-improved control with the Braves. Another tall pitcher in a system of gigantic pitchers, the lefty cut his walk rate nearly in half in terms of BB/9 last season and this season, he's brought back his strikeout rate which slumped last year. McCreery was one of the oldest pitchers at Rome so a new challenge will be good for the southpaw. He gave up a run in two innings during his Florida debut.

Demoted from Mississippi: Chad Sobotka (#40)...The Random Prospect generator picked the wrong week to spit out Sobotka. Just days before I published my profile on him, Sobotka got the heave-ho to Florida. He had struggled badly with Mississippi with just about all his metrics heading in the wrong direction. The Braves are hoping a demotion will clear his head and jumpstart his season. He looked pretty good in his first outing with Florida, striking out two over one scoreless inning.

DL'd: Chase Johnson-Mullins...The tall lefty out of Shelton State Community College (go Bucs!), CJM has been impressive this year as his walk rate is down and his strikeout rate has climbed a bit. On the other hand, he's basically repeating Class A+. Hopefully, the injury is minor and the 6'8, 270-pound behemoth will get back on the mound soon.

DL'd: Wigberto Nevarez...The Braves use the DL for catchers like they use Danville's roster before the APPY season opens. These assignments rarely mean anything. I just want to say, though, if Florida put "Wigberto" on the back of the jersey, I think it would sell pretty well.

Rome
Assigned: Austin Bush...Picked in the 15th round of this year's draft, Bush is a big boy. He's listed at 6'6" and 265 pounds. Obviously, he's Rome's defensive end/first baseman/power forward. He bashed his first professional homerun in his second game and has gone 8-for-19 to begin his career. He's also struck out eight times. Basically, if he puts the ball in play, good things are happening so far.

Assigned: Jordan Rodgers...Another advanced college draftee from earlier this month, Rodgers was a quick sign. In five games with Rome, he's already played three positions. There's some pop here and the potential for a solid utility player.

Activated: Matt Custred...With a logjam of relievers ahead of him, Custred was one of the guys who returned to Rome despite some solid work with last year's squad. Custred spent two months on the DL after an appearance on April 25 before his recent activation. He's been dominant for Rome when he has stayed on the mound, though, striking out 16 over 12.2 innings and has been charged with just one earned run. He picked up 64 K's last year with Rome in 56.2 innings with a 3.18 ERA.

Demoted to Danville and Returned: Alan Rangel...The Braves can no longer use Danville's roster as an extended spring training so it looks like Rangel has impressed enough people to stick with Rome. Still just 19, Rangel's in his third season out of Mexico and has flashed big K numbers with good control in the past. He's struggled through a trio of starts with Rome to this point, but the Braves are buying in for now.

Demoted from Florida: Taylor Lewis...A ninth-round pick in 2015 out of the University of Florida, Lewis rolled last year as he climbed from Rome to Mississippi (with a 19-game dominant stretch with Carolina mixed in). However, the righty was returned to High-A to open this season nd has been a dumpster fire. He walked just 14 batters (2 were intentional) in 66 innings last year, but has given just as many free passes (all unintentional) in 23.1 ING with Florida this year. He also matched his career total in homeruns given up in half-a-season. The Braves are hopeful a return to Rome will get him going, though he gave up a run and uncorked three pitches in his first outing with the team.

Released: Yeudi Grullon (6/19)...I either missed this one for last year's transaction recap or it wasn't posted. Either way, Grullon was sent packing during his fifth year in the system. He never showed much of a stick and hit just one homerun during his 721 PA. He was in his second season as a utility guy for Rome when he was released. He was known more for his pitching the with Rome (three outings to close games) than his hitting.

Danville
(Lots of moves as the Braves set the roster with draft choices and callups from last year's GCL roster. Too many moves to list.)

Demoted from Rome: Jaret Hellinger...Hellinger's struggles in Rome kept the lefty from potentially avoiding a second year in Danville. He allowed 13 ER in 12.1 ING with more walks (9) than strikeouts (6). After iffy campaigns the last two years following his 20th-round selection back in 2015, Hellinger's not too much of a prospect at the moment.

Promoted from DSL: Kelvin Rodriguez...One of the few players who opens his career state-side before heading to the DSL, this is Rodriguez's third season of professional ball. After spending 2016 in the Dominican Republic, he opened this season down there as well before a promotion up the chain to Danville. To this point, he hasn't done much to attract much attention and looks more like a veteran innings guy.

GCL Braves
(Roster finalized this week. I'll include a list of players jumping from DSL to start this season to the GCL.)

Promoted from DSL: Alger Hodgson, Miguel Jerez, Deyvis Julian, Yoeli Lopez (#50), Juan Morales, Luidemid Rojas, Yefri Del Rosario, Yunior Severino (#44), Albinson Volquez...Obviously, Severino is the biggest name here. A switch-hitter with power to spare, Severino was ranked as the 8th best prospect of last year's signing class by Baseball America. He only hit .189 in 10 games in the DSL, but the Braves think he's ready for a more aggressive assignment. Del Roasario was also a J2 signing last year and got a bonus in the high six figures. He's a project pitcher with questionable mechanics but could be a star with big velocity and a nice breaking ball.

DL'd: Jackson Pokorney...Not sure what landed last year's 29th rounder on the DL, but it was a 60-day DL assignment so it looks to be a severe injury. Pokorney was not expected to sign after blitzing his high school competition with a better than .500 average during his senior season, but he put college aside for a chance to join the Braves and hit .259/.340/.318 as an 18 year-old in the GCL last year. A switch-hitter, Pokorney has a projectable frame. For more on Pokorney, here's a profile from USA Today.

DSL
None

Random Prospect Sunday - Evan Phillips

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

When the 17th round of the 2015 MLB draft began, Evan Phillips was waiting for his name to be called. A right-hander out of UNC-Wilmington, Phillips had been promised by the New York Yankees that when the 18th pick of the round - and #513th overall - came up, it would be his name that would be called. You can imagine that Phillips had a moment where he imagined what it might be like to wear those iconic pinstripes and walk onto the mound in the new Yankee Stadium.

But something happened before that. With pick #510, Phillips received a call from Billy Best, an area scout for the Atlanta Braves, that it would be the Braves, not the Yanks, that would select the Clayton High School alum (NC). He quickly signed with the Braves and he was a professional.

Phillips, who also had been picked by the Kansas City Royals coming out of high school in 2012, was assigned to the Danville Braves to begin his professional career at just 20-years-old. A starter in college, Phillips was tabbed to be a reliever in the minors and immediately opened some eyes with a half-dozen games in Danville. He allowed a solo homerun, the only blemish during his 13.1 innings. All the while, he K'd 17 and walked just four. It was quickly apparent - and the Braves agreed - that rookie ball was beneath him. He spent the final month-plus in Rome. The results weren't nearly as dominant (4.41 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.41 BB/9), but considering he was just a couple of months out of college, Atlanta was pleased with the volume of work.

Rather than a return trip to Rome, Phillips was tabbed for a promotion to Carolina to open 2016. On one hand, he had a 1.27 ERA and eight saves over 21 games with a 2.54 BB/9, his single-best total anywhere. On the other hand, his strikeouts were significantly decreased and his .217 BABIP gave the impression of a pitcher who was getting pretty lucky. Regardless, by mid-June, the Braves again gave Phillips a promotion up the ladder and in just over a year since he was drafted, Phillips was already in Double-A ball. The rapid climb meant that Phillips was the first draftee from 2015 to make it to Double-A to stay (Trevor Belicek made a one-game appearance in April before returning to A-ball). Soon, A.J. Minter and Patrick Weigel would join Phillips in Mississippi from the Class of '15.

With the Mississippi Braves, the strikeouts returned. After falling under 20% with Carolina, it climbed back up to 28.5%. the control wasn't as pinpoint as it had been with the Mudcats, but Phillips continued to show an ability to get out hitters - though a .348 BABIP and 61.4% LOB% were his downfall ERA-wise. That mark went from 1.27 to 4.46. This is despite an FIP that dropped 10 points compared to Carolina and an xFIP that fell nearly a run. A deeper look showed a pitcher who was prone to giving up runs in a short amount of games. Between July 8 and July 24, Phillips was charged with five earned runs over 9.1 ING (5 games). Toward the end of the season, a three-game run saw him give up nine earned runs over 2.2 innings. Those three games jacked up his ERA from 2.20 to 4.60.

Phillips's 2016 was not finished. He headed to Arizona to play in the Fall League with some of the best minor league talent in baseball. He appeared nine times and though he did strike out a little over a batter an inning, he walked nearly as many. He was rather fortunate that he only gave up six hits in 10.2 innings because had he given up many more hits, his ERA would have looked even worse.

Unlike the previous two seasons, an iffy run down the stretch with a new team wasn't followed by a promotion to begin the next season. Phillips headed back to Mississippi to open 2017 and things...have not gone so well, but again, a deeper look into the numbers shows that things may not be what they appear.

Considered a strong possibility to close games for Mississippi, Phillips was blasted early-and-often to begin the season. Two big stinkers on April 13 and April 20 were ERA-ruiners. On the 13th, after Kolby Allard and Jesse Biddle had tossed a combined 7.1 scoreless innings, Phillips entered. He stranded a runner in the 8th and entered the ninth with a 7-0 lead after the Braves added four in the top of the inning. The wheels came off from there. He retired two batters in the inning, but allowed six runners to reach on five singles and a hit batter. When he left, the bases were loaded and three runners had already scored. That's when Danny Reynolds compounded the problem and despite a 7-0 deficit entering the ninth, Tennessee walked it off with an 8-7 win.

A week later, there was significantly less drama as Phillips replaced an ineffective Max Fried and was charged with five runs in just one inning of work. Since that game, Phillips has righted the ship for the most part. He did give up three homers in a pair of appearances in early May, but in 16 innings since April 20, Phillips has allowed just five runs (2.81 ERA), struck out 18, and walked seven. Of course, when you see that his ERA is 8.14, it's worth knowing that since April 20, he's brought his ERA down 17 runs from 25.20 to 8.14.

As for a brief scouting report, Phillips is 6'2" and about 215 pounds. He has a quick delivery in which he pushes his weight back an explodes to the plate. He's not gifted with plus-plus velocity, but can hit 95-97 mph with max effort, though he's more likely to be a few ticks under. He changes speeds well and appears to throw both a four-seam fastball and cutter. His slider is his best delivery and when he's able to get ahead on the heater, his slider has swing-and-miss potential with great late movement. Occasionally, he throws what looks like a show-me changeup, but it wasn't utilized frequently in the game footage I watched.

Phillips' biggest issue is with his delivery - or more specifically, one part of his delivery. Even in the short footage down below, you can see that everything looks smooth except where his landing foot is. Using the dug up scuff of dirt as a guide, check out the landing spot at 0.03, 0.10, 0.18, and 0.25. Benjamin Chase of Tomahawk Take also spoke about this during a scouting report. Consistency throughout the delivery is very important and right now, Phillips has issues there. When he's on, he's dominant as we've seen. When he's not, his control waivers. It'll be something to keep track of moving forward.

Prepping for the Trade Deadline: Part 1

(Written by Ryan Cothran, a contributor at Walk-Off Walk for the last few weeks. Previous columns by Cothran include one on BABIP, the bullpen, and reviewing the Braves' buy-low philosophy on Tommy John survivors. Remember to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Yes, the trade deadline is a little way off, but let it be known that Braves General Manager John Coppolella is always anxious to make a deal and a single date doesn’t hold weight on this trading stallion. Therefore, we need to be prepared, and this article will help us get there.

If 2017 is a mirror of the past 2 years of Braves baseball, it’s going to be an active trade deadline for Coppy and the crew. Whether it be buying, selling, or a little bit of both, you can bet your sweet pippy the Braves will be dealing.

Here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2015. Note that at this time, Coppy was not yet named the GM, but most agree that these were Coppy's deals and John Hart was merely there to provide guidance and a helping hand:

• Traded Alberto Callaspo, Juan Jaime, Eric Stults and Ian Thomas to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Juan Uribe and Chris Withrow.
• Traded Philip Gosselin to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Touki Toussaint (minors) and Bronson Arroyo.
• Traded Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the New York Mets. Received John Gant and Robert Whalen.
• Ugh...traded Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza and Alex Wood to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Zachary Bird (minors), Hector Olivera and Paco Rodriguez from the Los Angeles Dodgers and 2016 competitive balance round A pick (used on Austin Riley) from the Miami Marlins
• Traded Chris Johnson to the Cleveland Indians. Received Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and cash
• Traded Jonny Gomes and cash to the Kansas City Royals. Received Luis Valenzuela

And here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2016:

• Traded Jhoulys Chacin to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Adam McCreery 
• Traded Brandon Barker (minors) and Trevor Belicek (minors) to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Brian Matusz and 2016 competitive balance round B pick (used on Brett Cumberland)
• Traded Jason Grilli and cash to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Sean Ratcliffe (minors).
• Traded Kelly Johnson and cash to the New York Mets. Received Akeel Morris.
• Traded a player to be named later, Dian Toscano (minors), Bud Norris and cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Caleb Dirks (minors) and Phil Pfeifer (minors). The Atlanta Braves sent Alec Grosser (minors) (July 8, 2016) to the Los Angeles Dodgers to complete the trade.
• Traded Dario Alvarez and Lucas Harrell to the Texas Rangers. Received Travis Demeritte
• YAY! Traded Hector Olivera to the San Diego Padres. Received Matt Kemp and cash.
• Traded Hunter Cervenka to the Miami Marlins. Received Michael Mader (minors) and Anfernee Seymour
• Traded Erick Aybar to the Detroit Tigers. Received Kade Scivicque (minors) and Mike Aviles.
• As part of a 3-team trade, traded international bonus slot to the Texas Rangers and Jeff Francoeur to the Miami Marlins. Received Dylan Moore (minors) from the Texas Rangers and Matt Foley (minors) from the Miami Marlins. In addition, the Miami Marlins sent two international bonus slots to the Texas Rangers.

What will 2017’s trade deadline look like for our beloved Braves?

2015 was all about selling off the veterans, dead money, or debt consolidation for wild card prospects. The team was dead in the water and had no chance to compete. We knew it. Braves knew it.

2016 was much the same, rather the prospects were better, the deals were riskier (acquiring Matt Kemp), but most worked out in the Braves favor.

2017...if only we had a crystal ball. What will the Braves record be like approaching the deadline? If the last few weeks are any indication, I’d say that this team will be hovering around .500 come late June and that is lightyears better than what we’ve had these last 2 abysmal years. In dissecting Coppy’s track record, we can see who’s most likely to be on another team come July: 1-year veterans.  Here’s a list of players that have 1 year of control on their contract:

Brandon Phillips
Bartolo Colon
Jaime Garcia
Jason Motte
Kurt Suzuki
Emilio Bonifacio
Eric O’Flaherty
*I’m not including R.A. Dickey or Tyler Flowers on this list even though they are both on 1-year deals, but have reasonable options.


Of the players above, Phillips, Garcia, Motte, and Suzuki are the 4 that have established some value this year.  Colon could be bought based on reputation alone, but I don’t think there’s any team that would even take O’Flaherty or Bonifacio for free at this point.

However, if the Braves are looking competitive AND their best hitter in Freddie Freeman is set to return, one has to weigh the +/- of trading any of the vets that have value. The biggest question to answer would be “Are there suitable replacements?”  That, my friends, is a hard question to answer.

Replacing Traded Pieces

Replacement for Brandon Phillips? Ozzie Albies has taken to adjusting at AAA Gwinnett. In his last 20 games, he has a .296/.367/.432/.799 slash-line with 3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 6 SB and 0 CS. He’s younger and at this stage of Brandon’s career, will provide better defense. But Brandon’s on pace for a 2.5 fWAR year, is putting up solid numbers across the board, and has been a really nice addition to a Braves lineup that’s lacked good production from 2nd base. If Braves are competing, I think it’s hard to pull the trigger.

Weigel | Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Replacement for Bartolo Colon? Lucas Sims and Sean Newcomb have both taken their lumps of late, but Bartolo has taken his the entire year up until last start. There’s no doubt that having Bartolo on the team has a positive effect on our players, especially Latin Americans, but from a player’s perspective, his production seems replaceable on the surface given either of the two above could get the call - along with guys like Kris Medlen, Luke Jackson, or even Patrick Weigel.

Replacement for Jaime Garcia? It sounds weird to “sell-high” on a starting pitcher that’s sporting a 4.07 ERA, but that’s what the Braves could do with Jaime Garcia.  Left-handed pitchers are coveted in the MLB and Jaime’s peripherals tell a different story than his actual production. I’m afraid that if the Braves don’t move him soon, his numbers could balloon or his injuries pop up again. Insert same guys for Jaime’s replacement with more emphasis on Newcomb for handedness.

Replacement for Jason Motte? There are plenty of candidates for a Motte replacement, but all seem to come with the dreaded taint of being walk-heavy.  Motte’s great start has been a bit smoky and mirrory as his LOB is a crazy 94.8%, but make no mistake he has been effective. Luke Jackson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Akeel Morris seem like logical fits should any of the three find their control.

Replacement for Kurt Suzuki? At this point, I think the Braves would rather extend Suzuki for another year rather than trade him. There aren’t real replacements at Gwinnett (David Freitas, maybe?) and Kade Scivicque is at Mississippi, but that’d be rushing his development, especially as a hitter. Trading Suzuki doesn’t seem wise unless the Braves can acquire their future catcher at the deadline.

Replacement for Emilio Bonifacio, Eric O’Flaherty? While this likely isn’t trade deadline stuff as I don’t think these three will be around by then, replacing these guys seem rather easy:
Lane Adams for Emilio
Rex Brothers for O’Flaherty

What to expect in return for these trades?

If the Braves are trading any of their 1-year veterans, the less the acquiring team has to pay, the better the return. With that in mind, a team in desperate need of 2B production could send a B/B+ prospect to the Braves. Prospects the Braves have acquired in the past 2 years that fit that description are John Gant, Robert Whalen, Touki Toussaint, Akeel Morris, and Travis Demeritte

For the rest, it depends on what Coppy has up his sleeve. There’s a lot he could do with excess cash at the trade deadline and filling holes with high-end cost-heavy talent wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

Thanks for reading! Look for part 2 of this piece which will address Organizational Surplus.