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Showing posts with label Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft. Show all posts

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #1

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

The  Best Draft Since 2000...The 2000 Draft
By Keith Allison from Kinston, USA (Kelly Johnson)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Earlier today, I went over the 2001 draft, which I labeled the worst since 2000. What made that draft so frustrating was that despite having six of the first 105 overall selections, the Braves got precious little out of it. It might be equally frustrating that it came just a year after a similar case of a plethora of picks. But this time, the Braves turned it into a big haul, which showed just what Atlanta was capable of doing in the draft. You win some, you lose some.

The final Braves' team of the 90's was also their final chance to claim ultimate glory, but a quick four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees ended that dream. Still, the '99 Braves were a thing of beauty. In his Age-27 year, Chipper Jones had been named MVP. Andruw Jones, five years younger than Chipper, had posted a .365 OBP and his second consecutive 20/20 year. He was already well on his way to being the greatest defensive center fielder in baseball history. The rotation was aging, but had received a boost by a breakout season from Kevin Millwood, who struck out 205 batters. John Rocker replaced an injured Kerry Ligtenberg as closer and dominated. The team was expected to be good for a long, long time.

The minor leagues were stacked with talent from Rafael Furcal to Wilson Betemit to Marcus Giles to Matt Belisle. The Braves looked prime to only add to their already embarrassment of riches. Free agent defections after the 1999 season would give them extra selections to keep cycling through talent. Russ Springer, a good middle reliever, brought back a compensation first rounder (#29th overall) from the Diamondbacks. He also brought a supplemental pick at the end of the first round (#40th). Jose Hernandez, who only spent a couple of months with the Braves, brought the team the #38th overall selection after he signed with the Brewers. The Braves would also receive the Brewers' second rounder, #51st overall. There was literally no penalty for trading prospects for trade deadline talent back then. Atlanta had given the Cubs pitchers Micah Bowie, Joey Nation, and Ruben Quevedo for Hernandez and southpaw Terry Mulholland. They also got #38th and #51st pick. They effectively gave up three pitching prospects for four players. It's no wonder small-market teams hated the compensation system.

The Braves also received an extra fourth rounder, #106, because the Devil Rays signed Gerald Williams. If you ever wonder why the D-Rays needed so much time to be good, 2000 is a good example. Due to signing free agents, the D-Rays picked #6th overall and then took a long nap before their next spot came up - #136th in the fifth round. To compare, between both of Tampa Bay's first two picks, the Braves would draft nine players.

As the first round started, the Braves had a target. Would that target fall to them? They allegedly were spreading news around that Adam Wainwright had some injury concerns related to his right elbow with the hope that it would scare off enough teams to free up the Braves to select the native Georgian. Whatever the truth may be, clearly the Braves were hoping that Wainwright fell to them. The Cardinals passed at #24, the Astros went in another direction at #27, and the Yankees went with the son of Lance Parrish (David) at #28. When the Yankees finished the string of six players who would be drafted ahead of Wainwright, but failed to make it to the majors, the Braves must have been crazy with excitement. They got their guy.

They would also get the next guy on their Big Board because the next pick was theirs. Rather than stick with southeastern prep athletes, they bought into the reports of sick power from north of the border and selected Scott Thorman out of Cambridge, Ontario. Eight picks later, they mined the talent-rich fields of Texas to grab Austin-native Kelly Johnson. After the Rangers made their third pick of the first round (of which, they received just three hitless at-bats out of), the Braves picked shortstop Aaron Herr out of Hempfield High School in Pennsylvania. With their two second-round picks, the Braves picked a pair of righty prep pitchers in Bubba Nelson and Bryan Digby. They stuck with the theme in the next two rounds, selecting a total of three right-handed prep pitchers in Blaine Boyer, Zach Miner, and Brian Montalbo - the latter of which would choose not to sign after being pick out of Alaska and would later be picked in the 7th round by the Brewers out of Cal-Berkeley.

What sets this draft apart from others was Atlanta's ability to find value late. Between Chris Waters selection in the fifth round and their 17th round selection, Atlanta failed to add any future major league talent. Keoni De Renne, a shortstop out of the University of Arizona, looked interesting, but ultimately failed like so many of those mid-draft picks. In the 17th round, the Braves added sturdy right-hander Trey Hodges out of LSU. Two rounds later, they picked Western Carolina outfielder Charles Thomas. Hodges would late hold down a middle relief job for the Braves while Thomas had one nice summer in the majors, which the Braves helped turn into Tim Hudson.

The Braves selected ten more players after Thomas who failed to make it to the bigs, but in the 29th round, they picked Seminole State College 1B and sometimes pitcher, Adam LaRoche. It was the third consecutive season LaRoche had been drafted. He had refused to sign with the Marlins in back-to-back years, but the Braves convinced him that his future was in Atlanta just two weeks after drafting him. Just four years later, he would be their regular first baseman. For three years, he blossomed into a steady option at first base before the suddenly penny-pinching Braves traded LaRoche after he became arbitration-eligible and handed the first base job to the guy who was drafted 850 picks before LaRoche in 2000 in Thorman. They later brought LaRoche back during the 2009 deadline to bring stability to their 1B situation, but passed on keeping him. They had their future 1B in the making in the minors (Freddie Freeman) and a long-term deal for LaRoche wasn't in the cards.

LaRoche was the last-of-nine major leaguers the Braves drafted and signed out of the 2000 draft. Waters would leave the organization as a minor league free agent after 2006 and would later pitch in 16 games with the Orioles between 2008-09. Five years after being drafted, the Braves would package Miner with right-hander Roman Colon in a trade with the Tigers to acquire Kyle Farnsworth. Miner pitched in 173 career games, mainly with the Tigers, before retiring. Boyer was a dependable member of the 2005 Baby Braves, but washed out after that. After nearly giving up, he has been a nice story of perseverance since returning to the majors in 2014 with the Padres while posting a 2.70 ERA over 123 games with San Diego, Minnesota, and currently Milwaukee.

Even though this draft would produce some big hits, the trio of Herr, Nelson, and Digby all failed to make it to the majors. Nelson was used as trade bait while Herr and Digby simply washed out. Thorman was handed the 1B job in 2007, but showed that outside of some homers that left the planet, he was not capable of reaching base. His struggles led John Schuerholz to trade for Mark Teixeira. Theoretically, had Thorman been respectable, maybe Schuerholz wouldn't have lost his mind. Maybe.

But regardless, in addition to LaRoche, the Braves had some huge success with the drafting of Wainwright and Johnson. The latter developed into a good second baseman before transitioning into a sought-after utility player. Here is something you should know Kelly Johnson. He is the fourth-best player selected in the first round of 2000 according to rWAR behind just Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, and - of course - Wainwright. Speaking of Waino, Braves fans naturally bemoan his 2003 trade to the Cardinals. While J.D. Drew would help the Braves keep their playoff streak in tact, it was a lot to give up for one year of Drew. However, from a drafting standpoint, the Braves aced this pick. First as a reliever and later as a starter, Wainwright became one of the more dominating pitchers in baseball until this year. The Braves got their man. They didn't keep him, but they got him and he turned out to be everything they thought he could be and more.

Hopefully, tonight's draft yields a solid haul like the Braves got in 2000. Do you agree or disagree with any of my rankings? Let me know! What draft since 2000 should have been named the best? The worst? I'm all ears.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #1

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

The Worst Draft Since 2000...The 2001 Draft

Anthony Lerew | By RCSmith84 (Own work)
[CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL], via Wikimedia Commons
How important is it to hit on your draft choices? In 2001, the Atlanta Braves had six picks in the first 105 selections. Three never made it to the majors. Of the other three, the only one who went on to have a decent career re-entered the draft after not signing with the Braves. Of the 10.9 WAR Basebal-Reference currently attaches to this draft, two players account for 13 WAR. Neither signed with the Braves after being drafted in 2009. When people talk about the horrid drafts of the Frank Wren years, it's important to remember than John Schuerholz had his fair share. This one stands out.

The Braves came into the 2001 draft with the #29th overall pick based on their 95-67 finish the previous year. Chipper Jones was entering his Age-29 year and Andruw Jones was just 24, but the team was getting old in a hurry. Kevin Millwood, Jason Marquis, and Odalis Perez start 53 games combined in 2001, but the Braves needed an onslaught of young talent to add to the frey. The 2001 draft could have been a way of helping that happen.

Atlanta added three picks in compensation while losing no picks. They received the Dodgers' #24 pick after Los Angeles signed Andy Ashby while also picking up a supplemental first rounder as well. They also grabbed the Pirates' second round pick, #52nd overall, when Pittsburgh signed Terry Mulholland. The 2001 draft was a top-heavy collection of talent with Joe Mauer going #1st overall and Mark Teixeira going #5. The rest of the first round was a hodgepodge of forgettable contributors like Casey Kotchman, Aaron Heilman, and Noah Lowry. The only real impact talent over the final 39 picks of the first round was David Wright.

Wright was picked #38th overall. He could have been a Brave if he had been higher on the board for Atlanta as they had two shots to pick him. Instead, they stayed in Georgia, drafting two prep Georgians and a Georgia Tech alum over their first three picks. When Atlanta's first pick came up with the #24th overall selection, the Braves chose Macay McBride. If it's any consolation, of the next four picks, only Jeremy Bonderman and Bobby Crosby made it to the majors. McBride was a star in Georgia and would have been a Georgia Bulldog had the Braves not grabbed him. Five picks later, they selected shortstop Josh Burrus out of Wheeler High School in Marieta. Their third first rounder was used on Georgia Tech second baseman, Richard Lewis.

The second round included a pair of names the Braves had a shot at that would turn into dependable major leaguers (#56, J.J. Hardy and #72, Dan Haren). Instead, with the #52nd overall pick, the Braves selected Jesuit High School (Sacramento, CA) lefty J.P. Howell. A pick after Haren was selected by the Cardinals, Atlanta stayed in the southeast to grab Decatur High School (AL) third sacker Cole Barthel.

The picks kept coming. Over the next nine rounds, they picked pitchers Kyle Davies, Raymond Nieves, Donnie Furnald, Willie Collazo, and Anthony Lerew along with outfielders Adam Stern, Matt Esquivel, and Bill McCarthy. Only four reached the majors and only Davies stuck around for any length of period. That was a better success rate than they had after round 11. Of Braves they drafted and signed, only Kevin Barry made it to the majors.

It's hard to screw up three first rounders in one draft, but the Braves in 2001 found a way. Burrus and Lewis went nowhere during their careers. Burrus, a toolsy shortstop was shifted to the outfield and only played 5 games at the Triple-A level during his ten year career. At least Lewis was repurposed as the Braves traded him just three years later to the Cubs in the Juan Cruz deal. He hit .228/.280/.332 during 203 games at the Triple-A level before his career came to a close after 2008. McBride was part of the Baby Braves that reached the majors in 2005 and he looked useful over 14 innings, but his lack of control caught up with him soon after. The Braves traded him to the Tigers in '07 for Wil Ledezma and after 20 games with Detroit to finish the year, McBride would never again play in the majors.

The second round went worse. While Howell would develop into a solid lefthand reliever, it was only after heading to college. Barthel played just 149 games with the Braves organization over four seasons before being cut after never making it past Rome. Stern and Davies would both make it to the majors with Stern hitting a buck-16 over 54 games while Davies's career ERA is 5.57. He actually made it back to the majors for the first time in four years last April for one game. Recently, he debuted with Yakult in the Japan Central League.

But as bad as Davies has been, at least he's received an extended look. The trio of pitchers that reached the majors from the tenth to 14th rounds (Collazo, Lerew, and Barry) combined to pitch 95.2 innings in the majors with Collazo's ERA of 6.35 the best mark of the bunch.

Atlanta would select just two more players who made it to the majors, but neither signed with the Braves that year (Delwyn Young & Dallas Braden). This was a John Schuerholz/Roy Clark led draft at the height of "The Braves Way." It's enough to remind you of the quote from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells Grady Fuson, "I've sat at those tables and listened to you tell those parents 'When I know, I know. And when it comes to your son. I know.' And you don't. You don't." The variables that go into selecting a player are the only things the team controls. After that, they can't control how a player takes to coaching, how his pitches look against advanced hitters, how healthy he remains, etc.

All draft choices are made with the best intentions. Sometimes, good things happen. In 2001, the best the Braves could hope for was Kyle Davies - an underwhelming right-hander who has the second-worst fWAR among pitchers who threw 750 innings between 2005 and 2011.

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #2

On this 2016 Draft Eve, here is my pick for the second best draft since 2000.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

2nd Best Draft Since 2000 - The 2002 Draft

Keith Allison via Flickr (No Changes)
(Creative Commons)
It was a perfect storm for the Braves. Two years before, they had added a lot of talent to the system, but were still short on real prospects. While they would win a NL East Title in 2002, the cracks began to show as they won just 88 games. That would actually help the Braves as it gave them a higher draft choice than they were used to getting during The Streak with the #23rd overall pick. They would add a supplemental first (#34th) and an extra second round pick (#65) after Steve Karsay signed with the Yankees.

The table was set for a big haul and the Braves had their eyes firmly set on one player - Parkview High School two-sport, do-everything, superstud Jeff Francoeur. But would he be there when they selected in the first round for the first time at #23? Previously, I went over how the Braves may have muddied the waters when it came to Jason Heyward. The Braves and especially their scouting director Roy Clark had been tied to some accusations of dirty play beyond that. They were blamed for bad medical reports related to Adam Wainwright before the 2000 draft. They were also possibly responsible for a fax that suggested Francoeur wanted a $4M bonus.

Whether any of that is true, Francoeur made it clear to other teams that he had three options in the draft. Either the Atlanta Braves drafted him or he received a "significant amount of money" to sign with whoever picked him. Or, and this certainly was a possibility, he could head to Clemson University, where he had signed a letter of intent to play defensive back. Francoeur was expected to be a standout as a college safety - something not lost on Bobby Bowden or his son, Tommy Bowden. One story involved the latter being at Francoeur's home on a recruiting trip. The elder Bowden called Francoeur, which prompted Tommy to take the phone and kindly tell his dad to get off the line while he was on a recruiting visit.

Teams ahead of the Braves had Francoeur higher on their Big Boards based on talent, but he dropped due to the demands Francoeur would have to sign. He never did get that $4M, regardless if it ever was one of his demands, but after Atlanta selected the outfielder and convinced him to give up football, he received $2.2M and the Braves' 2002 draft was off.

Up next, with the #34th pick, was James Madison University southpaw, Dan Meyer. A standout college pitcher for the Dukes, he was the first college arm selected by the Braves in the first round since 1987 when the Braves tabbed Derek Lilliquist as the sixth overall selection. Thirty picks later, the Braves again chose a prep star from their own backyard, Duluth High School catcher, Brian McCann. While he lacked Francoeur's infectious smile, he was left-handed catcher with power. McCann had been playing baseball with-and-against Francoeur since the two became teenagers. Now, they would become roommates.

The next pick of the draft was Atlanta's extra second-round pick courtesy of the Yankees. It would ultimately be wasted on shortstop Tyler Greene. An athletic shortstop with power, Greene passed on the Braves, but liked the area enough to attended Georgia Tech. Right-hander Charlie Morton out of a high school in Connecticut, was selected next. Morton, like Meyer, would be used in big trades.

Sad to say, but the rest of the draft produced very little. Long-time followers of the Braves' minor league system might recognize the names of Steve Russell (4th), J.J. Jurries (6th), and Wes Timmons (12th), but the latter two failed to progress beyond Triple-A while Russell was cut after five years in the system. Shortstop Jon Schuerholz out of Auburn would be lambasted as a sign of nepotism after the Braves spent an 8th round selection on him.

The Braves would get a hit on 20th rounder Chuck James out of Chattahoochee Valley Community College. It's difficult to get much value out of the 20th round, so the 64 games and 55 starts they received from James constitutes a hit in my mind. His metrics were never that good and after a fun retelling of Chuck Norris jokes with James in the latter's place, he wore out his welcome with the Braves. Nevertheless, he was the Braves' #3 pitcher in 2006 and '07.

For all of the hype surrounding Francoeur, this draft would ultimately be known as the year the Braves finally picked a catcher in the draft who turned into a star. In the previous ten drafts, Atlanta had spent eleven picks on catchers. Some didn't sign, but those that did gave the Braves precious little. You have to go back to 1989's draft choice of Tyler Houston, which was a bust, to find a catcher the Braves drafted and developed into a major leaguer for more than a cup of coffee. Of course, the Braves had more luck internationally, but catcher was a position that year-after-year was draped in failure. McCann gave the Braves not only success from the draft, but one of the best catchers in baseball for 8.5 years.

While 2002's draft could have certainly been better, grabbing a guy who may have a borderline Hall of Fame career when it's all said and done is a big get.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #2

With the 2016 draft tomorrow, it's time to get to the end of this series. Just three more articles remain after this one.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

2nd Worst Draft Since 2000 - The 2011 Draft 

Gilmartin | By Kaotate [GFDL or CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
On one hand, Atlanta's haul in the 2011 draft produced eight major leaguers. On the other hand, the Frank Wren/Tony DeMacio-led approach of cheap, sign-able college players effectively reduced the chance that the Braves would bring an impact player into the system. The 2011 edition would possibly be their worst draft together.

Flash back to 2010. The Atlanta Braves would win 91 games in Bobby Cox's final year and were batting on the young duo of Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens to lead their rotation while the also young core of Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, and the just-arrived Freddie Freeman would give the Braves a big boost at the plate. The Braves also had high hopes for the foursome of Mike Minor, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado, and Julio Teheran. You could forgive Wren and DeMacio if they felt they had a dynasty on their hands.

Of course, they didn't and the 2011 draft certainly didn't help matters. Their first pick finally came with the 28th overall selection. As they had done two years before, they went with a left-hander out of a big southern college program. But Sean Gilmartin wasn't Minor - who certainly raised his share of eyebrows when the Braves drafted him. Minor's floor was noticeably higher than Gilmartin for one. Gilmartin was a borderline Top 50 player heading into the draft. He was a perfectly fine second rounder, but the Braves played it safe as they had done so often during the Wren years. Either there was an edict that they needed to compete and needed cheap depth players to fill in the gaps rather than hope for the best with an 18 year-old out of high school or the Braves were just flatout missing. Regardless, Atlanta made the choice to knowingly give up on the high reward and play the chances that they have grabbed a high enough floor guy to play in the majors.

They were successful. They also had very bad drafts as a result. 2011 stands out because the Braves not only drafted a college player in the first round once again, they did so in 18-of-the-first-19 rounds. They went with smart kids out of UConn (Nick Ahmed) and Gonzaga (Cody Martin) along with smaller school standouts like Kyle Kubitza and Tommy La Stella. The draft could have just easily been a winner. Instead of Joe Panik or Henry Owens, it was Gilmartin in the first round. Instead of Andrew Susac in the second, it was Ahmed. Instead of Carter Capps, it was Kubitza in the third. Rather than draft Greg Bird in the fifth, they took Nick DeSantiago. Could have had Ken Giles, but took Martin in the seventh.

Is this unfair? You betcha. But 2011 showed just how warped the Braves valued talent in the draft under Wren and DeMacio. I'm not a guy who buries Wren. I think he shoulders too much of the blame. But when it came to the draft, the Braves simply were missing and missing badly.

Here is a sign that something went wrong. The 2011 draft was just five years ago. Nobody from the draft remains the system. Some, like Gilmartin and Martin, were given away. As was J.R. Graham, who the Braves lost voluntarily in the Rule 5 draft. Kubitza and La Stella were traded for arms with higher upside. John Cornely and Gus Schlosser were sent packing. As was Ahmed, though at least he was a piece that helped the Braves acquire Justin Upton.

If a year stands out as a reason to not play it safe and draft for need, it's 2011. The Braves got exactly what they sought - good bets to make it to the majors. Eight of them did that - so far. But their roles in the majors reflect the conservative draft philosophy the Braves followed. Each player that has made it to the bigs has little chance of developing into much more than they were when they were drafted.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #3

Halfway home in this series as I alternate back to the "Best" side with a draft that produced just two established major leagues so far, but their impact on the Braves is significant.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

3rd Best Draft Since 2000 - The 2007 Draft

Credit: Tommy Poe / Freeman and Heyward with
Myrtle Beach in 2009
At first glance, 2007 was a win - but it could have been so much more. Questionable picks after the second round kept this draft from being more than it could have been. Fortunately, two stars were acquired early on to make this draft a major asset for the Braves.

The season of 2006 was a massively disappointing year for the organization. One year after graduating a host of youngsters known as the Baby Braves to the majors, Atlanta struggled to stay within striking distance of the New York Mets, who ran away with the NL East title. Atlanta was meandering through the season until June hit. That month, they would flat-line into a 6-21 run that the Braves could not recover from. The big problem was that the rotation - long a strength for the Braves. It didn't help that Chris Reitsma was blowing games left-and-right, not that Jorge Sosa couldn't harness whatever made him a decent pitcher for the '05 team.

The only thing positive to come from the 2006 season was that the 79-83 season gave way to the #14th overall pick of the '06 draft. That wasn't all as the defection of Danys Baez (remember him?) gave the Braves a supplemental first round choice (#33rd) and the Orioles' second rounder (#69 overall). Atlanta also had their second rounder, the 78th overall, inside the Top 100. The scene was set for a big draft haul.

The stars aligned in another way. The Atlanta Braves were desperate to draft Jason Heyward, a potential franchise keystone. However, would he be available at #14? Baseball America had ranked him the ninth best prospect heading into 2007 and remarked that no one had a bigger upside. Of course, Atlanta has never been shy about finding some less-than-honorable ways to open the doors to acquire the local talent they want. Allegedly, that is. Atlanta put up a smokescreen to avoid looking too interested in Heyward, least they tip their hand. Working in the Braves' favor was Heyward's reputation as a fearsome hitter to gameplan around. While the Braves had been scouting him since he was 11 and kept an eye on him in summer league games where he would use a wooden bat, other teams focused on his high school games. Pitchers were afraid to throw to him and Heyward, as we would later learn, was a patient hitter.

But still, the Braves needed luck. Ed Creech, the Pirates scouting director and Georgian native, passed on him. The Rockies, Nationals, and Indians also passed on him - due in no small part to not seeing him swing the bat enough. However, one team was very interested and picked two picks in front of the Braves. The then-Florida Marlins area scout, Brian Bridges, compared Heyward's swing to Willie McCovey and told anyone who would listen that Heyward was the real deal. In a private workout with the Marlins, Heyward belted homers on half of the 60 pitches he saw. But the Marlins, citing Heyward's signability, went with 3B Matt Dominguez and then paid him $100K more than Heyward got. Bridges felt the Marlins were using Dominguez's position as the deciding factor, believing it would be easier to find a right fielder than a third baseman. In their defense, 64 picks later, they took Giancarlo Stanton.

Atlanta's war room went crazy and suddenly, the road was clear for them to draft Heyward. Bridges would be hired away from the Marlins to help sign Heyward. But Atlanta was far from being done. They had 49 more draft selections. Their next two were used on a high school third baseman, Jon Gilmore, and right-hander Josh Fields out of the University of Georgia. Nine picks later, they drafted lanky Freddie Freeman out of El Modena High School in Orange, CA. Their next eleven picks were a mixture of junior college and four-year guys like Brandon Hicks, Cory Gearrin, Travis Jones, Michael Fisher, and "pitcher" Brandon Belt. The last name wouldn't sign. Neither would Fields. Fifth-round selection Dennis Dixon out of the University of Oregon did sign, but played just one summer before returning to college to start at QB for the Oregon Ducks.

Righties Caleb Brewer and Paul Demny (who didn't sign) represented the first two high schoolers taken after the rush of college players, but Atlanta would head back to college-age guys in the 16th through 21st rounds. Some interesting names from the remainder of the draft include C.J. Lee in the 20th round, Benino Pruneda in the 31st, and a pair of players in the 27th and 33rd rounds who would both be drafted again the following season (Adam Milligan and Craig Kimbrel).

The draft would be known for Heyward and Freeman. Each would climb up the ladder and become good friends with a bromance reminiscent of Jeff Francoeur and Brain McCann a few years before. Gilmore would be used by the Braves to acquire Javier Vazquez from the White Sox in the winter of 2008-09. Hicks and Gearrin would both get to the majors with Gearrin following Hicks' footsteps by becoming a semi-established player for the Giants. But the Braves weren't able to develop anymore of the players. While three (Fields, Belt, and 24th rounder Mitch Harris) would all make it to the majors, it was only after re-entering the draft and getting selected by a different team. Of course, the relationship with Kimbrel would become very fruitful.

Pruneda and Fisher both flashed big potential at times, but neither saw their careers progress to AAA with the Braves. Fisher's career is over, but Pruneda continues to try to harness some filthy stuff and recently made his Triple-A debut with the Royals' organization.

This draft really only developed two great players, but their greatness helps push this draft into my Top 5. Heyward gave the Braves five good seasons once he made it to the majors before being traded to the Cardinals. If you add Shelby Miller's deal, the Braves effectively 24.6 WAR from Heyward plus Tyrell Jenkins, Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, and Dansby Swanson. Really shines up this draft even if the Braves may have tried to be sneaky as possible to get Heyward.

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #3

Continuing with my alternating Best/Worst Drafts since 2000 series. This year's draft probably should be one of the worst drafts since 2000 for any other organization. It ranks just third for the Braves.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
3rd Worst Draft Since 2000...The 2013 Draft 

Easily the most frustrating thing about the Atlanta Braves under Frank Wren and Tony DeMacio was the draft. Tabbed as Wren's choice to head up scouting at the end of 2009 and a long-time scout who scouted, among others, Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones, DeMacio either had his hands tied by financial limitations or was given an edict to bring in college-age talent with a chance to climb quickly to the bigs. Whatever the case, 2013 continued a string of mostly bad drafts under their leadership until both were relieved of their duties after the disappointing 2014 season.

The Braves gave up their first round pick to sign Melvin Upton, but would receive a compensation pick after the Indians signed Michael Bourn. Atlanta would select 31st, 65th, 102nd, and after the third round, their pick was frozen as the 27th of each round.

When their first pick came around, players like Aaron Judge (30th), Ian Clarkin (18th), Sean Manaea (10th), and Aaron Blair (41st) were still on the board. Those numbers I included reflect their ranking in Baseball America's Pre-Draft Top 250. Instead of taking any of those players, Atlanta settled on righty Jason Hursh out of Oklahoma State and ranked 50th by BA. Two of the four not taken have already made it to the majors with a third likely to get a callup sometime this season. Hursh...not so likely.

Thirty-four picks later, Atlanta went with Miami-Dade Junior College C/3B Victor Caratini, ranked 123rd, with the 65th overall pick. Unlike some other Wren/DeMacio drafts, the Braves did sprinkle in some high school selections like third rounder Carlos Salazar and fourth round selection Tanner Murphy. The former was a good value pick at 102nd overall while Murphy was considered a reach. Mikey Reynolds and Steve Janas, along with Ian Stiffler, were decent show-me players, but hardly big time value selections. In fact, possibly their biggest value pick after Salazar was 8th rounder Kyle Wren. While the Braves had done this before with Jon Schuerholz, it's worth mentioning that Frank's son was ranked as high as 210th by BA before the draft and was selected with the 253rd overall selection.

After Wren, Atlanta took a trio of high schoolers in Dylan Manwaring, Ian Hagenmiller, and Alec Grosser, before again focusing on college kids like Joseph Odom and Matt Marksberry. The latter would become the first and, so far, only major leaguer out of the 2013 draft. Other notable names from the draft include Tyler Brosius (21st round), Andrew Waszak (22nd round), Reed Harper (25th round), Dakota Dill (26th round), and Jake Schrader (27th round). Players drafted, but who did not sign, include Stephen Wrenn and Jacob Heyward, Jason Heyward's baby brother. Both would head to big-time college programs.

The key to the 2013 draft was supposed to be the hard-throwing California, Salazar. However, now in his fourth year, he was moved to the bullpen after starting failed and his control has not been aided. He has the strange distinction this year of walking one per inning, yet his ERA is under 1.00 (21 BB in 21 ING). He's also struck out 26 and only allowed five hits.

Also moved to the bullpen was Hursh, who was pushed to the pen last summer. Not exactly what the Braves were hoping for when they drafted him. Murphy's bat has been non-existent over the last nearly 130 games, but at least he's still in the organization. Reynolds was cut a month into his first full season of professional ball. Three other Top 10 picks have been cut by the organization in Stiffler, Manwaring, and Hagenmiller. Janas is still around and probably the most likely player to play for the Braves who was drafted in 2013 aside from Marksberry, though Janas is a long way away from being a shoe-in. Two others are more likely to get to the majors before  Janas, but are no longer with the Braves. Caratini was traded to the Cubs for James Russell. Wren was sent packing to cut ties with his family.

The 2013 draft was an utter failure from the first pick until the last, though I suppose there remains some hope the Braves will salvage a decent player out of this draft. Salazar could, theoretically, harness his electric stuff and a player like Grosser, has shown both promise and crushing failure. On the plus side, Atlanta has added to their 2013 draft with the additions of Blair (#36th), Andrew Thurman (#40th), Dustin Peterson (#50th), and - briefly - Jordan Paroubeck, who was selected #69th overall. I guess the 2013 draft could be beneficial for the Braves after all.

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #4

Time to try to push out the final seven of this series. The good news is that three of them are already written so expect me to polish up the 3rd Worst for publishing later today. Today's choice is a bit nuts since it hasn't even produced a major league talent yet, but I am a big fan. Clearly.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

4th Best Draft Since 2000...The 2015 Draft

I am fully aware that I am judging this draft way too quickly, but I believe this draft could - yes, could - exceed any draft since 2000.

It was the first time since 2007 that the Braves had multiple picks in the first time and it had been 14 years since the Braves had three picks in the Top 41 selections. The 14th overall was the pick they received for going a Frank Wren-dismissing-worthy 79-83 in 2014. The 28th overall was compensation losing Ervin Santana while the #41 overall was a competitive balance pick the Braves stole from the Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade. In addition, they added the final pick of the second round (#75) in the Victor Reyes/Trevor Cahill trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. When you add the #89 overall the Braves were receiving anyway, the Braves had six picks in the Top 100.

It was big news for a system in desperate need for added talent. In a pitching-rich draft, the Braves never deviated from their plan of taking what the draft gives you rather than reach for need. It was a stark change from the Wren-led years where Atlanta settled on college talent who could be expediated through the minors to provide depth for the big league club. Such a method produced big hits like Alex Wood and Andrelton Simmons, but also led to unremarkable high-round additions like Todd Cunningham and David Hale. The new Braves pushed money around to spend heavily on amateur talent and the 2015 draft was a first step toward showing what the Braves under the leadership of John Hart and John Coppolella, along with newly promoted Brian Bridges, could do.

They would sign their first 25 players drafted and 31-of-43 overall. They went high school early before adding college arms to finish the first ten rounds. After that, they cycled between junior college, four-year colleges, and high school players. The only real constant was that pitchers played a prominent role, much to the criticism of casual observers who noted the Braves already had a wealth of pitching talent. Of the first 25 drafted, 19 were pitchers. But Atlanta was not interested in filling out a quota of X amount of infielders and X amount of outfielders. They were only interested in taking the best player available.

Their first pick was a sign that these Braves were fearless in their approach to the draft. Rather than take their chances later in the draft and play it safe early, the Braves went with lefty Kolby Allard out of San Clemente High School (CA). Allard was a Top-5 calibar player before back issues chased off many teams. Not the Braves, though. They took the southpaw with frontline stuff and a curveball that was one of the best in the drafts. Atlanta played the odds. A true 14th best player in the draft might solidify the middle-of-the-rotation or be a plus-hitter. A Top-5 talent can start a Game 1 of the World Series. Atlanta went with the high-end.

Atlanta remained risky by taking a player whose draft status wasn't as high as the pick Atlanta grabbed him at in Mike Soroka. A righty prep star from Canada, Soroka had handled himself with maturity as a member of the Canadian junior national team in exhibition games against major league talent. Atlanta continued to not paint-by-numbers with their final first rounder as they went with Austin Riley, a pitcher who had some interesting power potential at third base. Their second position player came 13 picks later in the form of Allard's battery mate, Lucas Herbert.

The next ten picks were all pitchers ranging from the risky A.J. Minter, who threw just 58 innings in college because of injury, to Grayson Jones, out of THE Shelton State Community College.

When the dust settled, some scoffed at Atlanta's haul, finding it underwhelming at times. Many wondered if the risky direction was less smart and more reckless. However, you have to imagine that the Braves' braintrust set back and was happy with the talent they had added. Riley would have a breakout first season and become an immediate prospect. Allard was handled conservatively, but in brief cameos in the Gulf Coast League, he mowed down hitters. Later picks like Patrick Weigel (7th round) and Trevor Belicek (16th round) would produce intriguing arms while 25th round catcher Jonathan Morales might be a diamond in the rough.

Yes, it's too soon to get this excited, but you have to forgive me. This collection of talent is too good to ignore and their refusal to limit themselves to conservative approaches of too many college kids or guys who were born in Georgia/southeast is a refreshing change to the drafts of the last several years. One draft into the Coppy/Bridges years and I am on board and anxious to see what they can do with the 2016 draft.

Oh...and least we forget that the Braves also added Dansby Swanson via trade to their 2016 haul. That only makes this draft look all the better.

Monday, May 30, 2016

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #4

So far in this series, I've looked at the fifth worst and fifth best drafts since 2000 for the Atlanta Braves. Today, I'll head back to the bad side with a look at the fourth worst Braves draft.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000
By elemenous on Flickr (Original version) User
UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

4th Worst Draft Since 2000...2004

From a talent standpoint, the 2004 draft may be the worst draft Atlanta has had since at least 2000.

But the draft gets a bit of pass because Atlanta's hands were tied by some decisions by John Schuerholz and the big league club. Coming off a 2003 in which Atlanta bashed their way to 101 wins while surrendering 740 runs, the most since 1990, Atlanta tried to reverse course. They waved goodbye to Greg Maddux, but unlike the previous year, they did not offer him arbitration. They also didn't offer arbitration to Gary Sheffield, losing each without any sort of compensation. Meanwhile, they added Paul Byrd and John Thomson on the free agent market. The latter was especially painful as it cost them their first rounder, the 30th overall selection. It's unknown who they would have selected, but my money is on J.P. Howell, taken 31st by the Royals. Atlanta had originally drafted him out of high school in 2001 with a second round selection, but failed to sign him. The next ten picks included lefthander Gio Gonzalez and reliever Huston Street, but very little beyond them.

When all was said and done, Atlanta didn't draft until the final pick of the second round, 71st overall. They went with third baseman Eric Campbell out of Gibson Southern High School in Indiana. A different Eric Campbell would later play for the Mets, but the Eric Campbell the Braves selected failed to make it to the majors during a rocky minor league career.

Every thirty picks, Atlanta added another player - mostly guys you've never heard of. LSU second baseman J.C. Holt was their second rounder followed by righty James Parr, infielder Van Pope, and catcher Clint Sammons. Picks like Johnnie Wiggins, Derrick Arnold, and Jeff Katz were added to the haul, as unimpressive as it was. They finished the first ten rounds with southpaw Brady Endl out of Wisconsin-Whitewater.

14th rounder Mike Rozema, a shortstop out of St. John's, never hit, though his accomplishments of making it to AAA is rare with this group. 17th rounder and Georgia prep start Jon Mark Owings hit .293 with 13 homers for Danville in 2005, but struggled to stay healthy and when he finally did, he struggled to reclaim the glory of his coming out party. Righty Jaime Richmond was selected in the 31st round out of Canada and signed the next season. In 2006, he owned the Appalachain League with a 1.21 ERA in 67 innings with 52 K and 4 BB. Two years later, he was part of the Mark Kotsay trade and by 2010, his career was essentially over.

Atlanta did draft Tyler Flowers in the 27th round out of Blessed Trinity High School (Roswell, Georgia). He declined to sign and attended Chipola College. A year later, the Braves would draft him in the 33rd round and signed him the next season as a draft-and-follow. The Braves also drafted a pair of players near the end of the draft, but each went to college and became richer for it with higher draft spots (Sean Doolittle and Eric Farris).

From the 2004 draft alone, Atlanta drafted just two players that they signed who later reached the majors. Parr pitched 13 times and Sammons played in 31 games. That's it. Again, they get a bit of a pass because they drafted just twice in the first 101 picks and none in the first 70 picks, but that's a pitiful amount of talent to add to the organization. For awhile, Campbell looked like he might develop into a good offensive player for the Braves and possibly save this draft from being such an ugly show. In 2005, he dominated the APPY League, belting 18 homers over 66 games.

But Campbell had a problem. He just didn't give a damn - at least not enough of a damn to put the effort in. He was sent home from his winter league team in Hawaii after what seemed like a solid campaign with Rome in '06 (.296/.335/.517). His numbers flatlined in 2007 with Myrtle Beach before he was suspended and sent him home early. He looked improved in 2008, but dealt with injury issues. After an ugly campaign at the plate in 2009, the Braves cut the cord. Campbell would bounce around for a few years before his career came to an end following a run with Fargo-Moorhead in the independent American Association to end 2012.

Neither Holt or Pope developed into much. Holt was a decent contact guy with average speed while Pope was a great defender without a bat. In 2010, Pope tried to re-invent himself as a reliever, but wasn't able to throw strikes. Even the guys who did get to the majors were never that exciting as prospects. Parr's minor league numbers were never that great, but with bad pitching staffs in need of arms, he made cameos in both 2008 and '09 with the Braves. Last year, he pitched 42 times for Sugar Land in the Atlantic League. Sammons was an all-glove catcher who looked horribly overmatched when he did spend time in the majors.

Overall, 2004 was a failure by the scouting and coaching team, but it's not all their fault. They weren't aided by signing Thomson, nor were they aided by what was a shallow draft. Matt Bush's recent arrival in the majors withstanding, the talent was pretty poor. Only three first rounders have reached 20 bWAR in their career, 3 more in the second round, and not another until sixth round pick Ben Zobrist. It was not a pretty draft and the Braves couldn't help that. Because of that, I only rank this awful mix of players as the fourth worst since 2000.

Still, Parr and Sammons? That's just awful, Schuerholz and Roy Clark.