Where the Braves Sit Right Now

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

We could sit here for some time and keep talking about the surprising dismissal of John Coppolella, in-fighting between the remaining John's (Hart and Schuerholz), the possibility of pending sanctions, and so on. And you can be sure we will address more of that when the information is available. However, like it or not, the 2017-18 Hot Stove is warming up and it's time to start looking at next year's roster.

The Braves used 49 players in 2017 - down from the 60 utilized in both of the last two seasons. Part of that was a little better luck injury-wise, but the big reason the Braves used fewer players was that they were saying the days of random players you forgot were still playing were over. With depth increasing at Triple-A, the Braves were calling on an increasingly younger collection of talent as the season progressed. Of the eleven starters they used, eight were younger than 27. The Braves were looking to the future in many regards to their player usage.

Let's take a gander at what the roster makeup for 2018 looks like right now. This is just for general information as regardless of what happens when Major League Baseball finishes their investigation, the Braves will still be active in the trade market. They'll still sign free agents. The roster will change from what it currently looks like and life will eventually get back to normal.

Speaking of free agents, the weird thing about this team is that they really only have one major league free agent. A lot of the player movement will actually come from non-tenders and trades as the Braves look to open up room on their 40-man roster.

For what it's worth, my arbitration estimates are based on similar arbitration agreements from last winter. We may take a much more robust look at arbitration-eligible players later on, but for now, I used last year's results to help guide me. For players mentioned in the coming attractions, I'm limiting it to guys I project appearing in the majors next year if healthy and productive. Each renewal is given a $545,000 contract for 2018. Some will make more while some will make less due to the nature of split contracts and earning a different salary in the minors.

Starting Pitchers
Signed: Julio Teheran ($8M)
Arbitration: Mike Foltynewicz ($2.25M -Taijuan Walker, First Year, Super 2)
Renewal: Aaron Blair, Luis Gohara, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler
Option: R.A. Dickey ($8M team option, $500K buyout)
Free Agent: None (yay!)
Coming Attractions: Kolby Allard, Tyler Pike, Mike Soroka

There is a lot of depth here, though just as many question marks. Teheran and Foltynewicz both had good stretches during the season, but each struggled for the majority of the year. Gohara and Newcomb have the stuff, but will they consistently throw it for strikes? Is Sims better suited for the bullpen? Are Blair and Wisler done for? And will the Braves bring back Dickey?

I've been struck with how confident people are that the Braves aren't looking at possibly bringing in a big arm. This rotation, as its currently constructed, could be good, but the questions are far too numerous for me to be very bullish on that prospect. As far as Dickey goes, I imagine the Braves decline his option if he's still iffy on returning on 2018 and tell him that they'll be interested in bringing him back if he changes his mind. In the meantime, they'll start to kick the tires on a big move to stabilize the rotation.

Current Projection: $13.475 million

Relief Pitchers
Signed: Jim Johnson ($4.5M)
Arbitration: Rex Brothers ($1.42M - Rex Brothers :), Third Year), Sam Freeman ($908K - Evan Scribner, First Year), Ian Krol ($1.275M - Blake Wood, 2nd Year), Arodys Vizcaino ($2.55M - Jake Diekman, Third Year, Super 2), Daniel Winkler ($850K - Bruce Rondon, First Year)
Renewal: Jacob Lindgren, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, 
Free Agent: Jason Motte
Coming Attractions: Phil Pfeifer, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts, Caleb Dirks

Don't be fooled by so many names (nearly 20) - the bullpen will need some work. For starters, there are at least two non-tenders here with Brothers and Krol - and yes, I used Brothers as an arbitration comp for himself. In addition, many of the names in the renewal department have issues either from injury (Lindgren, Biddle, Rivero) or bad-to-average 2017 numbers (Cabrera, Hursh, Jackson). That leaves Johnson, Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, and Ramirez along with safe arbitration keepers like Freeman and Winkler. While there are some reinforcements mixed in, the Braves will likely want to find a couple of established arms to help out.

Current Projection: $13.713 million

Catchers
Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Coming Attractions: Kade Scivicque and Alex Jackson

Freitas and Sanchez will likely be designated for assignment soon so don't expect them to stick around. Before the Coppy mess, reports were that picking up Flowers' option was as good as done. That is likely still the plan because the value in comparison to the price is so high here. Catcher might be the easiest position to pencil in.

Current Projection: $7.5M

Infield
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21M)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3M - Lonnie Chisenhall, Third Year), Jace Peterson ($885K - Tim Beckham, First Year)
Renewal: Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz
Coming Attractions: Travis Demeritte, Austin Riley, Luis Valenzuela

Three of the four starting spots should be locked up with a number of cheap options for third base to fill out the infield. For what it's worth, I imagine the Braves will go cheap at third base, but there certainly is a chance they could get involved in some of the higher price options. One possible connection could formulate if Dayton Moore takes the Braves job and wants to bring Mike Moustakas with him. The arbitration cases here are both interesting. I wrote the other day that if the market doesn't develop for Adams - and I think there is a good chance it doesn't - I'd rather keep him than lose him for nothing. Peterson's poor play the last two years makes him a non-tender candidate, but a strong finish (.325/.460/.475 over his last 50 PA) may have bought him another year. He'll be out of options, but the Braves may see him as worth the investment. I don't foresee any coming attractions pushing their way on the roster this spring, but all three could appear in Atlanta by late summer next year.

Current Projection: $28.91 million

Outfield
Signed: Matt Kemp ($21.5M), Nick Markakis ($10.5M), Ender Inciarte ($4M)
Arbitration: Danny Santana ($600K, Ehire Adrianza, First Year)
Renewal: Lane Adams, Micah Johnson
Coming Attractions: Ronald Acuna, Dustin Peterson

The Braves will try to trade one of the corner outfielders this winter to open a spot for Acuna, which they may find easier said than done. As for Santana, he seems a goner due to his poor play after joining the Braves. This position isn't quite as easy to forecast as catcher, but we know there is probably going to be a mix of Inciarte, Acuna, and a veteran to be named later (likely Kemp). Micah Johnson rarely got a chance to play in Atlanta after being designated for assignment on twitter several weeks ago. Lane Adams, on the other hand, played his way into the mix to begin 2018.

Current Projection: $37.09 million

Other consideration: $2.75 million from the Padres

Roster Projection: $97.938 million

Note that this roster projection is just an estimate based both on salary arbitration figures that could be wrong and renewals that may or may not happen. Chances are that the player payroll projection right now is a bit lower than I have it, but I believe my total is a nice jumping off point.

So, let's try to put that nearly $98 million into perspective. Since 2014, the Braves have had opening day payrolls of $112M, $97M, $87M, and $123M. The last total was also last season when the Braves opened SunTrust Park. That gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that the Braves have a low-end player payroll cap of $120 million with a higher-end estimate of $130M. I'll take the difference and say that next year's cap is likely around $125 million.

Recall that the nearly $98 million total I gave you doesn't include Dickey's option and does include a number of non-tenders. The Braves may elect to go away from what I am predicting. They may also choose to non-tender someone like Matt Adams. The other way they could cut salary here is via trades - especially involving a corner outfielder. The best-case scenario involves dealing Kemp. Now, just dealing the outfielder won't add $21.5 million to the potential spending money for the Braves as they would almost certainly have to include money to facilitate a deal. But say they have to include $20M in two equal installments over the next two seasons - that's still $10M less on 2018's payroll. That's a really good reliever or two pretty good relievers.

Obviously, it's difficult to look at the future offseason because of the front office turmoil and it's unlikely to be resolved very soon. That said, there's still a team to build for 2018 and by my count, the Braves are looking at between $20 million and $30 million of spending room before the Hot Stove is actually, ya know, hot. That may not seem like a lot - the Braves spent nearly $26 million on Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Sean Rodriguez for 2017 (minus whatever the Pirates paid for Rodriguez) - but if spent much more wisely, the investment could bring big-time dividends for the Braves as they look to turn the page.

Walk-Off Talk 1.9: The 2018 Bullpen

(Every now and then, we hold informal discussions on something related to the Braves. Today, Ryan Cothran and me, Tommy Poe, look at the bullpen in 2018.)

Ryan,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like the Atlanta Braves won’t make the playoffs this season. And while it’s fun to talk about prospects like Kevin Maitan and Joey Wentz, there will be a major league season in 2018 and the Braves need to build a roster for it. On that roster, there will be a bullpen. So, let’s take a look at what that pen might look like.

Before we start, I have to admit something. For two consecutive years, I was sure the bullpen would be a strength and I was wrong. But I can’t be wrong three consecutive times, can I? 2018 has to be the year it all comes together, right?

To help answer that question, I want to look at where the bullpen is now and what the makeup might look like in 2018. We’ll cover some of the guys we want the Braves to keep, some of them that need to be moved, some of the guys coming up from the farm system, and any specific guys we would like the Braves to target in the free agent market or via trade. I’ll start.

 Vizcaino | By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I think the pen is a dicey position myself. It has a bullpen FIP that has often hovered around 5.00 since the All-Star Break (down to 4.61 now) and while we can blame Jim Johnson for much of that, others also struggled. Even some of the guys that have been so successful are players I'm not so sure I want to rely on moving forward. Jose Ramirez has a 2-run difference between his ERA and FIP and his xFIP is even higher. Can we really count on hitters becoming outs 8-of-10 times they put the ball in play moving forward as has happened for Ramirez this year (.209 BABIP)? Can we really count on Sam Freeman doing the thing he never did before - get left-hand major league hitters out - in 2018? Can we really count on Dan Winkler's arm not falling off from just signing an autograph?

It’s clear that I have my worries about this bullpen in 2018. That said, there are a few names that demand excitement. A.J. Minter has arrived and as long as he's healthy, he's probably the most dominant reliever the Braves have. Akeel Morris's incredible changeup will be in the mix as well - if the Braves remember he's in the organization. Arodys Vizcaino continues to impress, though he’s given up a few too many homers. Still, I’ll take him compared to others. Later, I'll talk about the two or three guys I really like coming up from the minors as well.

Generally, I'm seeing a bullpen that could go either way. Guys like Matt Wisler and Luke Jackson could finally get it. Winkler could stay healthy. Ramirez could continue to battle - and defeat - the SABR Gods. At the same time, there is a probably a better chance none of those things happen. So...that's a downer.

Here’s how I currently fall on things:
Keeping: Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, Winkler (I do like the arm)
Trading: Ramirez and Freeman - if there’s anything decent out there.
Keeping, but on thin ice: Wisler, Jackson, Hursh - next spring is their last chance.
Gone: Johnson (trade, DFA, pretend he’s Akeel Morris and lose him, whatever it takes), Krol, Motte, Brothers

I got the four I am comfortable moving into 2018 with, the three who I will give the last chance to (plus, they have no trade value), and a couple I’ll trade if there’s a good deal out there. I’m dropping veterans like it’s hot. Regardless, this pen needs plenty of work. What do you guys think? Am I wrong to be this pessimistic? Or am I seeing it way too clearly?

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Hey, Tommy!

Super-excited to be doing another Walk-Off Talk, especially one concerning the bullpen as I have a whole heck of a lot to say on the matter. First and foremost, I’ll say that I think we as Braves fans finally see the bullpen turn the corner in 2018.  There’s fruit that is blossoming in front of our eyes, young men becoming staples in the ‘pen, old dudes getting squeezed out, and fringe guys looking bloody awful and naturally being pushed out of roles.  While that all doesn’t sound good, there’s much research and evidence that shows you have to fail before succeeding.  We’re there.

In the 1st section, I’m going to look at the guys that we’ve seen in 2017 1 by 1, try to find underlying reasons for their success or failures, and decipher whether I think they have a shot at the 2018 bullpen.  Ready? Here we go! Who’s a KEEPER? Who’s a HEAPER?

1. Jose Ramirez- KEEPER. 2.28 ERA through 59.1 innings. Like Jason Motte’s early “success” this year in which he was getting roped but the ball was hit right at fielders, ERA can be a fluke stat, especially when we’re talking relievers and 1-2 inning stints at a time. With Motte, every person watching could see it was only a matter of time before it blew up in his face. The day it blew up on him was our beloved country’s birthday and since then he’s had a 9.28 ERA. This brings us to Jose Ramirez.  Like Tommy mentioned above, there’s a lot that’s went right for Jose this year: low BABIP, high LOB%, but there’s also a decrease in hard-contact as soft and medium contact make up for about 70% of the total while hard comes in at 32.3% - a serious decrease from previous years. It’s also worth noting that his groundball rate has increased significantly which, when adding in that his soft/medium contact rate has increased, bodes well for long-term success. Lastly,  Jose’s had an increase in velocity as his average fastball is 97.3, when it was previously 95ish. It’s appropriate to taper expectations for Jose as asking him to duplicate his 2.28 ERA is wish-casting, but increased velo, softer contact, and the ability to keep more balls on the ground makes me think Jose can be a mid-3s ERA in 2018.
2. Jim Johnson- KEEPER. This is tough. I don’t want to see Jim Johnson in a Braves uniform in 2018, but the reality is that it’s not that easy. He’s owed 5MM and the Braves at least need to give him a shot to rebound before throwing in the towel. Give him April in low-leverage situations and let’s see if he can make that sinker sink again - otherwise, his career will be the thing sinking.
3. Arodys Vizcaino- KEEPER. While not as extreme, Vizzy has also benefited from a low BABIP and a high-strand rate, but unlike Jose he’s kept his BB-rate low and his K-rate above 9. He might not be able to sustain a sub-3 ERA yearly, but if I were betting on anyone to do so in 2018, he’d be there.
4. Sam Freeman- KEEPER. The surprise of the bullpen in 2017, there’s not much fluke in Sam’s stat line as everything seems pretty normal. His fastball/slider combo has been downright filthy and he’s under control for 3 more years. No reason not to bring him back.
5. Ian Krol- HEAPER. I’d like to believe that Ian Krol’s mishaps are all bad luck, but it’s just not true. The pitch that made him valuable last year (fastball) has stayed up in the zone this year and has gotten crushed. His K-rate has dropped, BB-rate increased, and there are at least 2 LHPs in front of him in the pecking order. He’d also be entering his 2nd year in arbitration and the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.
6. Luke Jackson- HEAPER. Really, there’s not much to like here. He’s got a pedestrian fastball that has velocity and that’s it.  Luke’s got a lot to figure out in AAA before he even becomes an average MLB reliever.
7. Rex Brothers- HEAPER. Was super excited to see Rex signed this offseason as I’d pined for it. However, it’s just not worked out. His advanced metrics show he’s been really unlucky and hopefully, he can turn it around this last month. For now, like Krol, there’s just more effective LH options available. Like Krol, hopefully, the Braves can trade Rex for something of semi-value.
8. Matt Wisler- HEAPER. For the 3rd year in a row, Wisler just isn’t missing bats. And really, it goes beyond that as he hasn’t missed bats since 2013, which was the last time his ERA was below 4. I don’t know what there is to figure out at AAA and maybe a change of scenery is needed.
9. Jason Hursh- HEAPER.There was this one outing where Hursh was running it up to 96 and pitches were darting every which way. Aside from that, it was a step back year for the former 1st rounder. Like Wisler, his best opportunity might come in another organization.
10. Akeel Morris- KEEPER. Must be the black sheep of the Braves 40-man roster as that is the only reason I see for him to not be in the bigs right now. Good K-rate, walks are coming down, and his 2-pitch mix looks pretty doggone good.
11. Daniel Winkler- KEEPER. In my opinion, this dude’s stuff is downright filthy.  I’ve wondered aloud whether Braves will keep him around due to injury, but if they do, I think he can be a serious 1-inning force.
12. A.J. Minter- KEEPER. We are getting a taste of what he can do now and it’s delicious. A serious powerhouse lefty that’s capable of throwing high-leverage innings to any hitter.

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Ryan,

We mentioned a few names that came up from the minors this season and, as you said, will probably be keepers in 2018. Of course, I’m speaking of Minter and Morris - if he ever apologizes for whatever great offense he did to the Braves front office. Seriously, do as I do with my wife, Akeel. Make your apology sound super sincere even when you have no idea why they are mad. And maybe break down and watch Empire with The Holy John Trinity. Perhaps that last thing only helps with my wife, but it’s worth a shot.

Who might join Minter and Morris next season as young arms arriving in the bigs? Let me preface this by saying that I would love to include Kyle Kinman in this group, but coming off Tommy John surgery, I think that’s wishful thinking. Also, nobody knows where they put Armando Rivero so until we find him (I’ll check the couch), there’s no real reason to include him in this discussion.

Clouse | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

One name that pops out immediately is Corbin Clouse. He logged 41 games between Florida and Mississippi this year, finished with the fourth most strikeouts in the system from those pitchers who didn't start a game, and hitters struggle to get the ball elevated against him due to a heavy 91-93 mph sinker and a wipeout slider. I'm sure this is going to be a common theme with these young arms, but in reference to Clouse, his control can waver from time-to-time. That said, when he's on with his delivery and follow-through, he's a nasty guy to deal with on the mound. Low-end projection, he'll be a left-hand specialist. But I think his stuff plays up to the righties as well. I think he could be a left-handed and maybe a little less effective version of the Tigers' Shane Greene.

Another arm that started in Florida only to finish the season in Mississippi was Devan Watts. Similar story to Clouse, except he's right-handed and has flashed very good control. Same sinker/slider combo, but with a bit more velocity and holy crap, does his sinker move. I've also seen a changeup out of him, though I'm not sure if it'll play in the majors. The Braves are downright scary with how they uncover these small college arms (Tusculum College alum) and develop them into relief prospects. He checks all the boxes you are looking for and should be in the mix come spring training.

Phil Pfeifer, unlike Clouse and Watts, has logged some time in Triple-A. He has a more prototypical heater, though this velocity won't blow you away. He'll mix in a changeup and a late breaking power curve. Sometimes, especially against right-handers, he'll slow the curve down to give the hitter something else to look at as it drops in a more traditional loopy fashion. Picked up from the Dodgers last year, it all boils down to control for the southpaw. He's quick through his delivery and gets a lot of movement on his pitches, though I sometimes feel like he's trying to get through his delivery way too fast and would be better off slowing things down a touch. Either way, there's a lot to like, but you can't walk 16% of hitters in the majors and be an effective reliever.

Finally, I have to mention the guy who came over with Luiz Gohara - Thomas Burrows. The Braves were super cautious with the former Alabama closer (Tide Roll! - right?), but I imagine the dude will be on the quick track next year after spending his Age-22 season in Rome. He struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, got a heavy dose of grounders, and kept the walks to the minimal. Do I think he'll jump from low-A to the majors this spring? No, but could he be in the mix by midseason? Oh, absolutely. He's tried-and-tested in the SEC and has continued his success into pro baseball. And have I mentioned that he's another sinker/slider pitcher. Seriously, with all these sinker/slider guys, we should have never let Roger McDowell go. He'd be giddy with this crop of relievers. Oh, well.

I know there are more arms I haven't mentioned here. Why don't you point them out, Ryan?

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I will do just that, Tommy! But might I say that of the guys you mentioned above, Devan Watts really tickles my fancy.  Some twitter guys had his velo up to 98 at the end of this year. Add to that a low-BB rate, high-K rate, and a 2nd pitch in a slider that varies in MPH and is more of a plus pitch than his fastball, and you’ve essentially got what the Braves wanted out of Shae Simmons without the arm injury history. I’m all-in on THAT!

But enough about you and your guys! What do you think this is, the Tommy show?  I want to talk about my dudes!  Ready?

Jacob Lindgren (LHP)- In this section, Lindgren, in my opinion, is by far the guy to be most excited about.  But keep your pants on, Braves fans.  He went under the knife last year with Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch.  Stolen from the Yankees, Benjamin Chase compares Lindgren’s fastball and slider to Jonny Venters, and from all the video I’ve watched, it’s on the money. Unfortunately, the pitch that likely aided in the injury is Lindgren’s calling card: a slider that simply disappears on hitters. Keep an eye on Lindgren this winter as the Braves could send him somewhere to get some innings in January, but more likely would be a return to action in Spring Training for an Opening Day audition.

Wes Parsons (RHP)- Wes has been in the organization since 2013 and at one point was a top-10 prospect in a very weak system. Now that the Braves have the best farm in the Majors, Parsons has been a bit of an afterthought as he’s been moved full-time to the bullpen. However, it seems to have done him a whole lot of good, revitalizing what seemed to be a dead career as a starting pitcher. Parsons has added a couple MPHs (tops out at 96) to his fastball and rebounded to a 3.15 ERA across 2 levels with healthy. For me though, I’d file him under the same headline as failed starting pitchers turned fringe MLB relievers with Matt Wisler and Jason Hursh. Parsons has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, even if it’s just a sliver of hope.

 Biddle | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle (LHP)- Before Lindgren, there was Biddle. Claimed from the Pirates prior to the 2016 season, Biddle was another guy that the Braves got for nothing due to recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Pirates tried to sneak him through waivers. In his first year of on-field action with the Braves, Biddle worked exclusively out of the bullpen and put up good numbers through 49.2 innings at AA. The BB-rate was below 3 per 9, the K-rate was above a K per inning, and the ERA sub-3. What’s bizarre is the fact that he’s on the 40-man and yet the front office didn’t bring him up for a cup of coffee. There are some undertones in this statement and maybe none of these are correct but I think Braves either don’t see him as a real piece, want to limit his innings, or dislike something in his demeanor. He seems like he could be a useful Major Leaguer and hopefully, he gets his shot next spring.

Caleb Dirks (RHP)-  Dirks was in the Braves system, traded to the Dodgers, and reacquired last year. Dirks is known for his deception as both video and scouting reports show jerky movements before delivering the ball, which has Benjamin Chase comping him to Jordan Walden. The problem is that is where the comp ends. He doesn’t have electric stuff, nor does he have electric velocity. In my opinion, there’d have to be a whole lot go right for him and wrong for others for Dirks to get a shot in the Braves bullpen. Like many fringe guys, his best path to the bigs will likely be outside this pitching-heavy system.

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Love “The Strikeout Machine.” Lindgren and Minter together are going to be hell on the opposition - especially the poor left-handed hitters they leave in their destruction.

Moving on, let’s talk about a couple of guys that might benefit from a switch. Specifically, Mike Foltynewicz and Lucas Sims. I’m glad I can address this subject again because Stephen stole my thunder awhile back with his column on Folty from the beginning of August and I want it back. He pointed out something that many Braves fans rather disagreed with, but that I have had a sinking feeling would be the inevitable conclusion on Folty. Simply put, he's miscast as a starter. That isn't to denigrate Foltynewicz, but over more than 350 innings, we have witnessed a few things about Folty that seem impossible to disagree with. One, he's got lethal stuff. Second, he's in stagnation since joining the Braves. He's improved, sure, but only incrementally. To put it another way, he's gone from a bad rookie pitcher to a mediocre third-year starter. And sure, we can sit here and condition this by saying Folty is really in his first full season as a major league pitcher after spending ten starts in the minors in 2015 and working his way back from injury last year, but that excuse only gets us so far.

It's not that Folty isn't useful in his current role - only that he's not best suited to be a starter. I was doing a Saturday Stats Pack less than a week before Stephen's article where I pointed out that since 2015, only two pitchers (the washed up version of Adam Wainwright and the journeyman Jeremy Hellickson) had higher line-drive rates against them. Line drives turn into hits nearly 70% of the time and many of them also become extra bases. Some, you can argue some of this is due to the fact that Foltynewicz has thrown his fastball nearly 65% of the time and it's a hard fastball. Fair enough, but even the most optimistic fan has to be worried about that line drive rate.

Foltynewicz simply doesn't have the offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. Once they time his fastball, they don't have to worry about being fooled by a changeup. They can then sit dead red and react to the slider and curve, which both are better since his rookie year, but both suffer from repeated viewings of the pitch. Further, as Stephen said a month ago, Folty has never been able to get out lefties. Perhaps if they didn't see him multiple times in the same game - and he was given a chance to unleash his heater at full strength with either of his breaking balls - Foltynewicz could have more luck.

I know it's unpopular, but in my book, it's time to embrace the inevitable here and turn Folty into the Braves' version of Chris Devenski. Like Folty, Devenski has amazing stuff and he's given the opportunity to unleash it without the fear that he needs to hold back for the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings. Moving Folty to the bullpen could hurt a rotation that appears wide open already, but a sign of good management is put your player in the best position to succeed. With Folty, I believe that he'll succeed the most coming out of the bullpen.

On the flip side, Lucas Sims has always had an arm scouts raved about, but the results haven’t been equally as impressive. He seemed to take a step forward this season with the lowest walk rate of his career in his second try at answering the Triple-A question, but also threw a lot of grooved fastballs that were hammered to deep Estonia. The strikeouts were there, but like we've seen with Sims, it was two steps forward, another step back. His first taste of the majors as a starter has been Matt Wisler-like. He's still avoiding the walks, which plagued him the last two years, but he's looked exceedingly meh. If that's possible.

One of the thing that stands out to me the most about Sims so far has been the inability to induce a swing-and-a-miss. The major league average is 10.3%. Sims, as a starter, had a 7.8% swinging-strike percentage. Hitters are making too much contact and those balls are screaming around the park.

The Braves have already announced that Sims will work out of the bullpen for the rest of the season and that might be for the best moving forward. We haven't seen a lot of Sims just as as a reliever, but the early returns are promising. Sims doesn't have the same kind of electric stuff as Foltynewicz does, but he does have lively movement on his pitches when he can repeat his delivery and arm slot - something that is easier said than done with him. Don't believe me? Check this out:

If he cleans that up, his fastball location should be better. Because his curveball is so good, he only needs to be able to locate his fastball and good things will come. In my opinion, that will come in shorter stints - the kind of appearances he had in the Arizona Fall League last year when he reestablished his value.

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Kudos on that, Tommy! I think we all at Walkoff Walk can agree that Folty would be better served to unleash all that holds him back 1 inning at a time. Could you imagine a bullpen that featured Folty coming in throwing triple digit heat? I need to see more at the MLB level on Sims, but I have a hard time distinguishing between what he brings and what Matt Wisler brings. At one point, I thought Wisler could be a stud bullpen piece with a couple of ticks in added velo. Now, not so sure. Hopefully, you’re right and Sims will take to a role in the bullpen.

But now that we are done with the in-house guys, it looks like we have enough candidates to make a pretty good bullpen. However, we all know that if a team starts the year with 15 candidates, they’ll be looking for more come April. So, is there anyone out there on the free agent market that could prove valuable in a 2018 Braves bullpen?  You bet there are and I want to take a look at some of those options.

With Minter, Clouse, S. Freeman, Lindgren, and Biddle, I think the Braves have the LH relievers in-house that they need, but there’s a few free agent RH that I’d like to see the Braves go after for 2018, but before that, let’s make a mental note: I think there’s a really big chance Craig Kimbrel comes home for the 2018 season, therefore the guys I’m looking at aren’t the top-tier, but right below that. Also, it’s worth noting that the guys I’m looking at carry a low-BB rate which is very much needed in a bullpen chock full of young, wild electric arms.

Anthony Swarzak- Fastball has picked up velo and has been downright dominant this year.  Having the best year of his career and a good time to do it.
Addison Reed- In a walk year, Addison Reed is pitching well for the 3rd consecutive year and inducing ground balls at a 40% rate.

The bad contract swap route?

A while back, I posted a waiver trade idea between the Braves and Orioles in which the Orioles brought home Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson. With Johnson tanking, I think that deal as it was is dead and gone.  But Markakis? That could still be something the Orioles are interested in this coming offseason. But maybe the Braves can knock off most of Jim’s contract and send him to them? Here’s the proposal:

Braves get Darren O’Day
Orioles get Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM dollars

O’Day has rebounded from his atrocious start in which his ERA approached 7 close to the midway point. Now, it’s a respectable 3.86. Still, he’s owed 18MM through 2019 and the Orioles could look at this as a peace offering to their fan base to start their rebuild. They’ll clear all of O’Day’s 2019 salary and pay JJ and Kakes 13MM for 2018.

Should the Braves Consider Moving Teheran?

Julio Teheran looked like the unquestioned ace of the Big Four pitching prospects the Braves once had churning in the minor leagues. Along with Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino, Teheran was part of a group that would hopefully anchor the Braves rotation for much of the 2010's. Of course, here we are in 2017 and only Teheran remains as a starter, let alone in the Braves staff. And some might argue that we've reached the point where even that needs to change

Such commentary has pushed other Braves fans in a different direction. While more focused on a different pitcher, a frustrated Aaron Kirby remarked on Twitter this morning, "In fact, Julio and Folty have pretty similar stats this season. When are we moving Julio to the pen?" This refers to a common refrain from Braves fans - including ones at this blog - that Mike Foltynewicz profiles better as a reliever. But Kirby rightfully points out that both the flame-throwing right-hander and Teheran share many of the same issues. Why does one get talked about moving to the bullpen and the other doesn't? I would say for a variety of reasons, but the biggest is perception. People have long felt Folty's stuff was better suited for the bullpen. Nobody held the same regard for Teheran, who was considered a potential front-of-the-rotation arm.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

But five years into his career, is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now rather than pay him at least $20M (including a 2020 buyout) through the 2019 season? While many will scoff at the idea out of practice, it's worth considering.

When Teheran signed a $32.4M extension in mid-February of 2014, he was coming off his first full-season in the majors. The deal effectively bought out the remaining five years of arbitration, a year of free agency, and potentially a second year with an $12M option for 2020. Along with the Andrelton Simmons' extension, both were very aggressive moves by the front office as they attempted to get ahead of the horse for what appeared likely to be very expensive arbitration years for the two young players. The plan was to pay them a bit more now but potentially save money later on. In turn, the players received financial security. Simmons would later be traded and while Teheran was often thrown around as a potential arm to be dealt in trade talks, he stuck around as the Braves went into a full rebuild.

Since signing the extension, he's been equally good and bad. In 2014 and 2016, he posted a matching WAR, according to Fangraphs, of 3.2 in both seasons. But then, his WAR fell to 1.1 in 2015 and it's unlikely to even reach that this season. In fact, since he signed the extension, his fWAR ranks just outside the Top 50 qualified starters in baseball at 7.9. That's lower than Tanner Roark, Mike Leake, and Bartolo Colon. It'd likely be lower if not for Teheran's durability. He's tossed the tenth most innings since the beginning of 2014. Nevertheless, the last four years haven't exactly lined up for Teheran like anyone had hoped.

Further, there is a reason to believe his 2016 bounce back season had a little too much luck in it. Lefties had a .247 BABIP against him that season, 35 points below his career average when facing left-handed hitters. His production against lefties has long been an issue that has limited Teheran, who has yet to develop a pitch to keep them honest. In turn, lefties bash him around to the tune of a 5.05 FIP over his career and it's only worsened as time has gone on (5.67 FIP since the beginning of 2015). Nearly 35% of batted balls since 2015 are classified as hard-hit, according to Baseball Info Solutions. To put it another way, a third of all balls left-handed batters put in play are scorched around the park. Some are caught, but too many of them find holes in the defense - or worse, become a souvenir for a fan in the outfield bleachers.

Teheran's problems against left-handers start with one key issue: his fastball loses much of its effectiveness against them. About a quarter of all swings on his four-seam fastball against right-handers are whiffs. That number falls about 10% against left-hand batters. Without a fastball to get ahead in the count, Teheran can't use his secondary pitches to induce weaker contact - or get more whiffs. Further, we don't see much of a drop in whiffs on Teheran's breaking pitches despite how many plate appearances in a game a right-hand hitter might have against Teheran. Against left-handers, his slider and curve see great declines in whiffs-per-swing after the first time through the order. That suggests that after left-hand batters get a read on his breaking pitches, they learn to lay off the ones they can't hit. The ones that they do...well, they don't always land.

Single Season Top fWAR for Braves SP since 2008 

Let's pull back for a second because it's definitely worth mentioning that Teheran doesn't turn 27 until the end of next January. Further, this is a pitcher with a pair of 3-win seasons during his career, something that's happened just nine times over the last decade for the Braves and almost certainly won't occur this year. Ignoring the reasons the Braves gave him an extension in the first place is a disservice to Teheran's time in the majors.

But two other pitchers show up on that list of 3-win guys since 2008 and they should scare Braves' fans - Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Much like Teheran, they were, at different times in their career, expected to front line a Braves' rotation for the next half-decade. And while we can talk about injuries and personal demons, another issue that developed for both pitchers might also serve as a warning sign for Teheran.

Declining velocity doesn't always mean something bad, but it can be a problem for a pitcher moving forward. In his rookie season of 2008, Jair Jurrjens averaged 92.4 mph on his four-seamer and 92.7 mph on his sinker. By 2011, he had lost three mph on both and a year later, he would be non-tendered by the Braves. He's made three starts in the majors since. During Hanson's rookie year, he averaged 92.7 mph on his four-seamer and 92.4 mph on his sinker. During his one 3-win season, he added a tick more velocity on the four-seamer but lost some on his sinker. The added velocity on his four-seamer was gone the next year and in 2012, it fell to 90.7 mph. That was his final year with the Braves. With Teheran, his velocity dropped after his rookie season from 93 mph to 92.2 mph. It stayed roughly the same in 2015, but he's continued to bleed a little velocity off in the two years since. In five years, he's gone from an average 93 mph to 91.9 mph. He's just 26 years-old. Now, the loss in average velocity is not a massive alarming discrepancy, but at his age, losing velocity is something to keep an eye on.

To not be concerned about Teheran's production at this point is to ignore reality. What's worse is that Teheran's struggles might only get worse, depending on how high this peak in offensive production that we are seeing league-wide goes. In 2014, the league ISO was .135 and the wOBA was .310. It's climbed to .172 and .322 respectively this season, prompting many commentators to refer to this year as a sign the ball is juiced again. Teheran has always given up a healthy amount of homers, but with home runs leaving the yard at an increased rate, that makes a pitcher like Teheran especially vulnerable. It's worth mentioning that baseball runs in cycles and just a few years ago, people were going crazy about a "Golden Age of Pitchers."

Could the Braves need, as Kirby also said, a new pitching coach? Well, they went down that route last winter when they sacked Roger McDowell in favor of Chuck Hernandez. It's unlikely that the Braves will shed Hernandez after just one year, though Ken Rosenthal recently suggested some radical moves might be on the horizon by an increasingly frustrated front office.

Let's circle back to those questions I asked earlier: is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now?

To the first question, I think there is a good chance of yes, Teheran is just a durable innings eater. According to Baseball-Reference, Teheran's most similar pitcher through 25 was Scott Sanderson. A veteran of 19 years in the majors, Sanderson got to the bigs at 21 years-old with the Expos and a lot was expected from the right-hander. Ultimately, he never received a Cy Young vote, was named to just one All-Star Game, and started two playoff games in which he got beat around a good deal. Nevertheless, he was a good rotation piece for the Expos and then the Cubs before settling into a more nomadic experience over the final seven years of his career. Essentially, he was the Ervin Santana of his time. Could that be Teheran's future?

Or could he be a starter that does figure it out finally in his later 20's more than he ever had before? Certainly, it's a possibility, but is it one the Braves should count on? Is it one that Teheran has shown much reason to expect over the last three years?

Maybe the best argument against trading Teheran is the one I have made before. Trading him this offseason might be the worst time to do so. His value has taken a big hit this season and moving him now could be considered selling low on a player who, again, has had two 3-win seasons in his young career. General managers can get over missing the right window to trade a pitcher - as Frank Wren did with Jair Jurrjens. What keeps them up at night is trading a pitcher who looks to be on the decline only to see them find it again in a new city while you took back a small return just to get rid of him.

Teheran's Splits vs. LH batters since 2013

The second-best argument against trading Teheran is the same one that one might argue when we discuss moving Foltynewicz to the bullpen. Why move these guys when the rotation isn't exactly pushing them out of the way right now? Inning eaters certainly have value especially in a young rotation prone to outings that require long relief stints. In addition, trading Teheran would have to be part of a series of moves aimed at shoring up the front-of-the-rotation. John Coppolella would have to rebuild the first three spots in the rotation this offseason without Teheran in the mix at an affordable rate.

To sum up, this has been an exercise from someone who's not sure what the answer is. I have decreasing confidence that Teheran will resemble the guy we once thought would headline a playoff rotation. At the same time, are the Braves in a position where they can actually trade Teheran right now? And even if they were, is now the right time to trade Teheran? Did the Braves already miss their window to maximize Teheran's market value and now are better off keeping him for some level of consistency as he eats innings every fifth day? All the while, they are merely hoping to see another unsustainably low BABIP against left-hand batters to increase Teheran's production.

There's no easy answer here. My belief is that the Braves will wait, see, and hope. I guess their fans are left with the same options.

Baseball's Weirdest Rule 5 Situation

What better way to explain service time than with the hottest prospect to come through the Braves system since Jason Heyward? For that matter, what better way to explain arbitration than with the strangest case that we've seen over the last number of years?

In professional baseball, you earn two different kinds of "time." The one that everyone gets from a rookie-league ballplayer to R.A. Dickey relates to how long you have been a professional. This is especially important when it comes to things like the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency. For instance, after seven seasons in the minors, you can become a minor league free agent. Oddly, we call them "six-year minor league free agents" despite needing seven years. Baseball is strange.

The other kind of time a player earns - which is far more important to this article - is service time. This refers to each day spent in the major leagues. Under the new CBA, there are 187 days to fit in a 162-game schedule. However, you are still credited with a day of service time during those off days. In fact, a full season is referred to as 172 days in the major leagues - which did not change in the CBA despite the added days to the MLB calendar year. Think of this way - as long as a player didn't use an option that season (i.e. 20 days in the minors), he likely earned a year of service time if he was with the team in April.

You receive service time while on the active roster, the disabled list, the restricted (or suspended) list, and...well...any list. As long as you haven't been optioned to the minors, your service time is climbing. Hence why some teams have tried to play the system against itself. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs waited exactly 13 days to call up Kris Bryant. Under the previous CBA, there were 184 days in a calendar season. As Bryant was not on the 40-man roster to begin the season, by pushing his debut off nearly two weeks, the 2015 Rookie of the Year received 171 days of service time in 2015. That's a day short of a full season. Chicago said all the right things about Bryant needing to work on some parts of his game, but the decision was made with the 2021 season in mind. Had the Cubs opened the season with Bryant on the major league roster, he would have become a free agent after 2020 as players with six years of service time in the majors at the end of any given season can become free agents should they not be signed beyond that season. Believing it was more beneficial to them to keep him in the minors, they did just that.

Should the Braves follow suit with Ronald Acuna? There is a lot of talk about bringing him up in September and why not? Over three stops from High-A ball to Triple-A, Acuna has hit .320/.374/.539 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 20 homers, and 37 steals. His numbers have improved at each stop and despite being about eight years younger than the International League, Acuna has an OPS of 1.021 with Gwinnett over 34 games. He's not only the top prospect in the Braves' system but has a solid claim to the best prospect in baseball and he's just 19 years-old.

Bringing him up now would sacrifice a potential extra year of team control. There are other concerns, but provided Acuna stays in the majors, he would reach free agency after 2023. If the Braves waited until sometime in late April of next season to bring Acuna up, they would follow the Bryant route and gain an extra year of team control while merely sacrificing a few weeks of the 2018 season with their top prospect in Triple-A. The Braves have historically not concerned themselves with that, though. I mentioned Heyward and he opened his rookie season in the starting lineup on opening day. By that September, Freddie Freeman joined the team for a cup of coffee. Last August, Dansby Swanson was surprisingly brought to the majors, which started his clock early. In fact, the last time I remember the Braves really concerning themselves with service time came in 2009.

Tommy Hanson was absolutely dominant with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi in 2008 as a 21-year-old. He finished the season by crushing the Arizona Fall League with a 0.63 ERA over 28.2 innings and 49 strikeouts. Over 14.2 innings the following spring, Hanson had a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. But it was Jo-Jo Reyes who was named the fifth starter. Predictably, he failed and in mid-May, the Braves made a change. Hanson had a 1.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 47.2 ING over his first eight starts, but the Braves passed on bringing him up from Gwinnett. They instead called on Kris Medlen, who had been nearly as excellent but wasn't considered a top prospect. Medlen would get three starts until June 7, when the Braves finally brought up Hanson.

All of this was done for one reason - arbitration. Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson as the fifth starter, not only would he have gotten to free agency a season quicker, he would have gotten paid a lot quicker as well. Players become arbitration-eligible after three seasons on a MLB roster. The Braves passed and continued to pass even after gaining the extra year of team control. That was done to get him past the expected date for Super 2 arbitration-eligible players. Super 2 refers to players with two years of service time plus a lot more. Basically, you group all of the players with more than two years of service time, but less than three years in a given season. You take the top 22% of that list and it gives you a threshold. Anyone above that threshold reaches arbitration early. That threshold differs, but it typically lands somewhere in the 2 years and 120-to-150 days area. Remember Bryant from earlier? Despite the fact that the Cubs bought an extra year before free agency, he will still reach salary arbitration this year. And the three years after it. Hence why Super 2 guys can get really expensive. Since arbitration-eligible players rarely fail to receive a nice bump in pay, it gets pretty costly the third time around even for just good players. Add a fourth year and players often are getting plenty of bank. One such player for the Braves this offseason will be Mike Foltynewicz, who will likely have 2 years and 163 days of service time. While the Super 2 cutoff hasn't been decided for 2017, it's unlikely to be higher than 163 days.

The entire reason I bring up service time and arbitration today is related to Dan Winkler. Back in December of 2014, the Braves selected Winkler in the Rule 5 draft. They knew he would miss of the next season after having Tommy John surgery. When a Rule 5 player is injured and misses time the next season, they still have to log at least 90 days on the active roster to fulfill their Rule 5 eligibility. If they fail to reach 90 days in their first season as a Rule 5 guy, they must finish off the remaining time the next season before being eligible to be optioned to the minors. In Winkler's case, as we know, it gets complicated.

Winkler was activated off the DL in 2015 on September 10. Between that day and the end of the season, he logged 24 days on the active roster. The following season, he was on the active roster for eight days before fracturing his elbow. In two seasons, he had 32 days of service time - or nearly two months short of what he would need to satisfy the Rule 5 requirement of 90 days.

The right-hander is currently on his second rehab assignment this season, which has required approval because pitchers only receive 30 days on rehab assignments. Winkler's most recent rehab assignment began 12 days ago. If he has been granted a second rehab assignment of 30 days, the Braves would be able to keep him in the minors until September 1 without having to make a move with the current roster. The season runs through October 1, which would get Winkler to 31 days of active roster time for this season and 55 overall. That leaves an additional 35 days of active roster time he would need to reach in 2018 to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements.

But...he'll also be arbitration-eligible. Yep, even though Winkler has thrown four innings in the majors, he'd be eligible for arbitration even if he went back on the DL for the rest of the year. Earlier, I said players get credit for service time while on the DL. Even though Winkler has pitched 13 times this season in the minors, it's all came under rehab assignments, which means he's still on the major league DL. That would mean Winkler would reach 172 days of service time this season on or about September 15, which would give him three years of service time in the major leagues.

But why stop this extra-strength convoluted exercise now? Let's go over the Braves' options.

I don't remember a case even close to this so this is my best-educated guess.

The Braves could non-tender Winkler, but as far as I know it, non-tender players become official in early December. That might be longer than the Braves would like to go with Winkler taking up space on their roster if they already plan on getting rid of him.

Atlanta could outright Winkler to the minors, but there are a few hang-ups there as well. One, to get him off the 40-man roster, they would need to waive him, offer him to the rest of the league, and, provided he passed through waivers, offer him back to the Rockies. If the other 29 teams passed, the Braves could attempt to outright him to the minors, but as an arbitration-eligible player, Winkler would have the right to elect free agency. As a free agent, the Braves could still try to sign him as a minor league free agent if they so wanted. For that matter, they could simplify the process and release Winkler and then sign him. If he accepted an assignment to the minors after being outrighted or signed as a minor league free agent and either came before the Rule 5 draft, he'd actually be eligible in the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

The Braves could also elect to offer arbitration. After all, how much could Winkler ask for and what could his agent argue? That he's been a good patient? For his part, Winkler has looked much sharper since beginning another rehab stint with Gwinnett and was very impressive to open last season. As he is unlikely to receive significantly more than the major league minimum through arbitration, he still could be a good bet to receive an arbitration tender.

Fortunately, few cases are crazier than Winkler and most are much simpler. Joining Winkler and Foltynewicz among this year's arbitration-eligible players for the first time will be Sam Freeman, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson. Another player, Jose Ramirez, seems like a good bet to also reach Super 2 status. Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, Arodys Vizcaino, and Matt Adams will also be arbitration-eligible. Much of this group seems likely to receive a non-tender - including Winkler. Should that happen, the next team won't even have to worry about Rule 5 eligibility with Winkler. That should keep the complications down to a minimal.

Some Waves are Bigger than Others

There are some in Braves country that are getting annoyed with the rebuild, and I get it (but don't agree with the mindset). The Braves traded some of their biggest names in Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, and Andrelton Simmons, and thus far have not seen the fruits of that labor at the Major League level. Since the rebuild commenced, the MLB team has looked pretty lackluster, and even the pitching talent that has surfaced has likely not been what is expected...or at least advertised. 

However, if you look outside the Braves front office fluffing of a few of the early pitching prospects, you get an unbiased look at what was expected of some of these guys, and while the "ceiling" has not been met, the expectation was MUCH, MUCH less than what our fans or front office claimed.

But fret not Braves fans. On a daily basis, I get to set my eyes upon the wonders of the Gulf of Mexico and I can assure you that some waves are bigger than others. If you're familiar with the color-coded flags that frequent the panhandle of Florida that determine wave conditions, you'll be familiar with the green, yellow, red, and double red flags. Here are their descriptions:

• GREEN FLAG- Calm Condition
• YELLOW FLAG- Moderate Surf/Currents
• RED FLAG- High Hazard
• DOUBLE RED FLAG- Beach Closed to the Public

These flags represent the Braves rebuild, especially that of the pitching variety. We are in the midst of this thing, but it's about to get really rocky for other MLB teams.

LET'S GO GREEN!!!!

Two years ago the first wave of the rebuild showed up and, no doubt, it was of the green flag variety. It wasn't a threat to the other MLB clubs. But the problem was in how it was presented to the masses. Let's break down a few guys: 

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

1. Matt Wisler- Every outlet that projected this guy saw him as a guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, but prior to his promotion he was being pushed as a guy to build on by the Braves brass. This was wish-casting and fast-forward to 2017, Wisler's being converted to relief at AAA after failing to keep his ERA below 4 since 2013.

2. Mike Foltynewicz- Immediately, when Mike was traded for, Braves started discussing front-line rotation stuff.  Unlike Wisler, this wasn't much of a stretch, but many prospect gurus agreed that the floor of "back-end relief" was more likely. Fast forward 3 years, and there are flashes but it mostly looks like he'll be a mid-rotation guy for his career...and that's a win for the Braves.

3. Aaron Blair- "Mid-rotation workhorse" ceiling that turned into a big dumpster fire at the MLB level. And this tidbit: He miraculously lost 3 MPH on his fastball when he donned a Braves uni. He's now sporting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and a mid-4s ERA at AAA.

4. Tyrell Jenkins- "Back-end rotation" ceiling now out of a job after being released by the Padres in July. Many, including myself, got caught up in his dynamic personality and decent ERA despite having poor peripherals that showed their true colors against the best baseball hitters in the game.

So, the GREEN FLAG wave has passed and as of now, only 1 of the 4 have come close to prospect projections. Is this more a lesson in prospect projections? Patience? Expectations? Really, it's all of the above. It is pretty rare for baseball players to live up to the hype of their prospect status, but the expectations that were thrown on this first wave to bear fruit were unfair to the players and the fans, not to mention the pressure the front office put on them with unreachable ceilings. But baseball is hard, and the guys above still have plenty of time to grow into their projections.

They call me MELLOW YELLOW

The Braves are in the midst of their YELLOW FLAG wave. These are guys with higher ceilings but have not put it all together in the MLB or MilB.

1.Sean Newcomb- The poster child for the YELLOW FLAG as Sean has a ceiling that is likely as high as anyone in the entire system, but is still plagued by control issues that were still present at Gwinnett. It's not a bad strategy for him to try to work through control issues in the midst of a punt year, but it'll be interesting to see what happens next year when the Braves are supposedly going to try to compete for the division and likely won't have the patience to run a pitcher out every 5th day plagued with the same issues that have cursed his baseball career. 

Rick Briggs via Flickr (CC by SA 2.0)

2. Lucas Sims- Once considered the Braves best-pitching prospect, Sims is now overshadowed by 2 handfuls of pitchers throughout the system.  Like Newcomb, Sims has been plagued by the ol' 4-baller, but that's taken care of itself over the last 2 years, but at what cost?  What made Sims valuable at a younger age was a fastball that had lots of movement and could hit 96.  Now his fastball sits in the low-90s. At Gwinnett this year, it didn't effect his strikeout rate as he was punching out over 10 per 9. However, in the MLB it's down to 4.7, albeit in a very small sample. The thing about Sims is if you look at projecting the Braves over the next 4-5 years, he doesn't seem to have the sticking power to stay in the rotation. His ceiling is much lower now than what it was after his age 19-season, and current projections have him as a back end guy/high-leverage reliever. It's my opinion that Sims received his 2017 chance due to his 40-man roster placement, not his performance, which was good but not really call-up worthy. As part of the yellow wave, I think Sims' best chance to stay in a rotation would be in a rotation that doesn't have a tomahawk across the chest. 

3. Max Fried- Fried is a poster child for small samples, both good and bad. His overall body of work has looked very pedestrian, but he flashes brilliance on a regular basis. Like Sims, Fried is likely on the MLB roster due to his position on the 40-man roster, but also the Braves are likely trying to keep his innings down as they've been extra cautious with guys coming off of Tommy John surgery. All of Fried's pitches are still present and his hook looks as filthy as ever, but something has held him back from tapping consistently into greatness. My guess is simply location as there's nothing else that can be pinpointed to mediocrity. He's one to keep an eye on as his ceiling is that of a 3-4 starter, but health could take him down as low as middle relief.

Red Flag?  SKIP THAT! DOUBLE RED FLAG IN FULL-EFFECT in 2018!!!

2018, the bulk of high-end pitching prospects will be at full-bloom at some point in time during the year, and it could be a wonder to behold!  Our next group all have front-line potential (number 1-2 starters) and this isn't organizational fluff but real prospect gurus with real projections.

1. Luiz Gohara- 20 years of age and flying through the minors after being mercifully removed from the Mariners' organization, Gohara might have the highest ceiling of all the pitching prospects with a serious left-handed power arm that's capable of striking out the fiercest of opponents. His issues stem from problems outside the diamond of which I'm not willing to delve into, but if he can keep those at bay, look out MLB.

2. Mike Soroka- Comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is setting them up for failure, so I'm not going to do that, but Soroka's pinpoint control is reminiscent of Maddux's reputation. Also only 20, Soroka is on pace to see time in the MLB as early as April of 2018, and I cannot possibly imagine a scenario where he's not in the bigs by 2018's end. Works low in the zone and uses every scrap of the plate, and if Tyler Flowers has anything to do with it, he'll use bits right outside the plate as well. With 3 plus pitches in his arsenal, this dude's the real deal. While he might not have the front-line arsenal of Gohara, his control could put him in the conversation.

3. Kolby Allard- At 19, the Braves might be pumping the brakes on this young stud as he's run into his first professional stretch where he hasn't dominated. Like Soroka, Allard has 3 plus-pitches and can run a FB up to 97, but normally ranges from 91-94. The fastball has lots of movement and his curve has different levels of break depending on the velocity. He's in AA and I think he stays there the rest of this year and maybe part of 2018. From there, it's anyone's guess, but I think his MLB debut happens sometime in 2019.

4. Touki Toussaint- If you were like me (don't be like me) you rated Touki lower on the prospect chart due to an inflated ERA that's been present his entire MiLB career. Like I said, don't be me and listen to others when they say Touki was, and still is, raw, but he is really coming around these last 4-5 starts. Like Gohara, if everything goes right, oh boy! Hold on to your seat because he's going to rocket. For now, his 95 MPH fastball and ridiculous curveball will make its home in Pearl, MS where he'll make foes look like fools. My bet is he'd be on the Allard track.

5. Kyle Wright- Could the Braves push Wright to MLB next year? You bet your butt they could...but I wouldn't expect it. Like Dansby, Wright is a polished pitcher that's got the frame and arsenal to be great. If the Braves need a push from a pitcher late in 2018, Wright could be that guy. However, 2019 seems more realistic and that's only 1.5 years in the Minors, a little more than Dansby.

Calm after the Storm? HECK NO!!! RED FLAG COMING IN!!!!

This group could very well become a named storm, let's call it Hurricane Arm Overload, and that would put them into DOUBLE RED FLAG status if they continue to develop, but for now, let's just appreciate them for kicking butt in the system. Most of these guys are early in their development and while most players they're facing off against are older, they're still in Low-A or below (or injured) and I've learned valuable lessons about projecting guys as "stars" when they're still in the lower minors (or injured). Watch closely to this group's development when they get to Double-A and beyond. I most definitely have high hopes.

1. Ian Anderson- Only 19 years old, Braves 1st round pick from 2016 is sitting 'em down at Low-A and has a body to grow into. Can already run it up to 97, and has the projections to be a #2-3 guy.

2. Joey Wentz- Also only 19, and has been a personal favorite of mine since the draft (and I have articles to prove it!), I think he's going to be really special. Putting up best numbers in the system at Low-A with a mid-90s peak fastball, and a change up and curve that's reportedly getting better every outing. The athleticism is the game-changer here and Wentz was a serious 2-way star coming out of high school and that should really pay dividends on the mound. Early projections show his ceiling as a mid-rotation pitcher.

3. Bryse Wilson- The surprise of the system thus far, and forgive me if I repeat things, but Bryse is also 19 years of age. Only surpassed by Wentz, Bryse is sporting a 2.36 ERA with a great K-rate, low-BB rate, and a knack for controlling the zone. The knock on him when drafted was that scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen, but man oh man he's proving he can play up. Working off of his fastball that sits the mid-90s, Bryse has a curve/slurve that's very effective and a change-up that is developing with every outing. Early projections show him as a mid-to-back end rotation pitcher.

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4. Kyle Muller- Pitching at Danville, Muller seems to be a bit behind in development from the 3 above, but it'd only take 2-3 dominant performances for him to be right in the mix. Muller most definitely has one of the more suitable frames for longevity as he's coming in at 6'6 225. Fastball sits at 92-93 but many reports I saw right after the draft had it pushing 95. I think we will see added velo to his fastball before it's said and done and he's likely toned it down to work on command which is very common for pitchers in the Braves system. Like Wentz, Muller is known for his athleticism and that should help his cause on the mound. A 3 pitch arsenal that's being fine tuned and has a 4th pitch that he's playing around with for now, Muller has the makeup to become an overnight surprise. Was in extended ST for a while nursing an ailment so I wouldn't doubt if he's up in Low-A by the end of the season when mass promotions will once again pour over the southeast like a summer thunderstorm.

5. Patrick Weigel- There's no doubt that Weigel would be in the Double Red Flag group above had it not been for his season-ending Tommy-John surgery at June's end. Like Muller, Weigel has a frame for eating innings if his arm can agree with his body post-surgery. Weigel works off of his fastball which sits 95ish and moves up to 100 on occasions. Weigel was promoted to AAA after 7 dominant starts in AA and ran into some hiccups. However, it was reported that his velo took a nosedive in the last 2-3 starts before being pulled on June 18th after only 3.1 innings.  Due to the Braves extreme caution on Tommy John victims, Weigel likely won't see action again until 2019 or at earliest Winter Ball in 2018 which, in turns, begs the question, "Does Weigel remain a starter?" The short answer for me is yes, but I don't think that'll be his role in MLB. If he can stay healthy, I think Weigel becomes a back-end bullpen threat where he's asked to come in and let it fly. Focusing on 2 dominant pitches in his fastball and curveball and keeping the 3rd (changeup) in his back pocket to keep hitters honest, Weigel could be a serious force for years.

WELL, that's all folks!  Don't fret when looking at the current fruits of the Braves pitching prospects that have peaked into the bigs this year. Dominance is coming and we are going to have wave after wave after wave for years to come.

Go BRAVES!!!