Reviewing the 2016 Draft

The 2016 Draft Class was a test of the system. The Braves entered the draft with the third overall selection and six-of-the-first-109 picks, which gave them a considerable sum in bonus money to divvy out. Atlanta took a maximizing approach where they wouldn't break the bank on their first overall pick so that they could increase the quality of subsequent selections. It worked nearly like a charm until they had to forgo signing 16th round pick Josh Anthony because of financial limitations. Still, Anthony was the only player of their first 32 selections that Atlanta didn't sign, so that's a pretty significant collection of talent that was added to the system.

Today, in the first in a series of posts checking on the last few drafts, let's take a look at where the Braves are after half-season with these players.

1.3: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS, Ballston Lake, NY

Say what you will about Anderson compared to Jason Groome, Riley Pint, and A.J. Puk (along with hitters like Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray), but Anderson was no slouch entering the draft. He was a Top 10 talent in a draft where there wasn't a clear elite club. After signing soon after the draft, Anderson made ten starts split between both Rookie League stops. Overall, he displayed tremendous control and struck out nearly a batter an inning. The Braves could be cautious with him entering 2017, but it would not be surprising for him to follow Mike Soroka's path and begin the year in Rome.

1.40: Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East HS, Prairie Village, KS

Similarly to Anderson, Wentz outclassed the Gulf Coast League before a promotion to Danville. It was there that he ran into a few control bugaboos, but rallied to strike out 16 over his final three starts (14.2 ING) with three earned runs allowed and nine walks. He has the early feel of a high strikeout/high flyball rate guy. It's important to remember that Wentz could have been drafted in the 10-15 round range had scouts not been skittish about the lefty suffering from dead arm in high school (along with wanting to see what Wentz could do against better competition). He could join Anderson in Rome to open 2017, but I could see the Braves being slightly more conservative in his time table.

2.44: Kyle Muller, LHP, Dallas Jesuit College Prep, Dallas, TX

Unlike the first two picks, Muller stayed in the Gulf Coast League and the entire GCL screamed, "WHY?" Over 27.2 innings, Muller K'd 38 while allowing one extra base hit (a double). Similar to Wentz, Muller had a Top 15 pedigree had he gone to Texas and succeeded, but the Braves gave him enough moolah to convince him that the best education he could receive right now came with the Braves' pitching instructors. Muller could also be on a trajectory that takes him to Rome to open 2017, but the fact that he stayed in the GCL all year makes me believe the Braves will hold his season debut off until June.

2.76: Brett Cumberland, C, UC-Berkeley

Atlanta's first college and positional player was a catcher with big raw power in Cumberland. While questions exist about Cumberland's defense with some believing before the draft that he was destined for a move to 1B or LF, the upside to such a projection is that those "experts" believed his bat warranted such a move to traditionally high-offense positions. A switch-hitter with discipline at the plate, Cumberland struggled with Appalachian League pitching following his signing. He appeared to wear down, which could be a product of a long season that began in college ball. The Braves could wait on him and hold him off until Danville's season begins, but with Jonathan Morales and Lucas Herbert moving up to Florida, I imagine Cumberland will get a Rome assignment.

3.80: Drew Harrington, LHP, Louisville

The most shocking thing about Harrington was that he didn't make his full season debut in 2016 and stayed at Danville. His numbers didn't pop, but he did strikeout 15 in 14.2 innings. He'll join Rome to open 2017 with a chance to earn a quick moving pathway if he succeeds. The Braves have shown a willingness to push relievers they draft out of college and with a lively fastball and good slider, Harrington has two pitches that could get him to the majors.

4.109: Bryse Wilson, RHP, Orange HS, Hillsborough, NC

First challenge complete for one of the last picks the Braves made that was heavy in projection. Wilson needs to refine his secondary pitches to stay as a starter, but he dominated the Gulf Coast League over 26.2 ING (29 K, 8 BB, 2 ER) so the Braves will gladly wait. Right-handed hitters were especially clueless (.379 OPS over 63 PA). Wilson is likely Danville-bound.

5.139: Jeremy Walker, RHP, Gardner-Webb

Considering a bit of a reach (Baseball America had him ranked in the mid-300s), Walker spent two months as a fixture for Danville. He showed outstanding control (37 K, 8 BB) and looks like a groundball pitcher so far. He opened the year as a piggy-back reliever before moving to starter by August. We'll know more about where Walker next year, but it's worth remembering that the righty signed underslot which helped the Braves ink higher value targets.

6.169: Matt Gonzalez, 2B, Georgia Tech

A breakout campaign as a senior helped Gonzalez move into the Top 200, but questions remained about his bat. After a 51-game campaign with Danville, those questions haven't been answered, but eased to an extent. He did hit .302, but without much pop or walks. He also swiped seven bases while playing mostly second with a little time at third and in left field. Seems primed to hit second in the minors and similar to the thinking with college-age second-sackers like Philip Gosselin and Levi Hyams, the Braves will hope that Gonzalez exceeds expectations.

7.199: J.B. Moss, LF, Texas A&M

The highest pick to make his full season debut was Moss, who played the final month and change with Carolina. Already 23 when he began his career in Danville, Moss quickly used his age advantage to slash .333/.380/.441 over 24 games. He looked notably worse upon joining the Mudcats. Moss had a decent career with the Aggies before being selected and is capable enough to cameo in center field, but is probably better suited for LF. I imagine he could stay at Advanced-A to open 2017, but with Ronald Acuna, Ray-Patrick Didder, and a possible return of Braxton Davidson at Florida when the season gets under way, I wouldn't be shocked to see Moss demoted to begin the spring in Rome.

8.229: Taylor Hyssong, LHP, North Carolina-Wilmington

I didn't have a lot of info on Hyssong before he was drafted. Now, I have only eleven games at Danville and still not a lot else. Hyssong looked decent, but didn't stand out in the Appalachain League while mostly being used a reliever. He did strike out 14 in 17.1 innings, but also walked seven. He'll be one of the many names to watch in 2017 with Rome.

9.259: Tyler Neslony, RF, Texas Tech

Once he finally signed, Neslony headed to Danville for five games in which he reached base in 12-of-21 PA with three doubles and a homer. The Braves quickly promoted the corner outfielder to Rome to finish the year and he held his own at .257/.311/.331. He did show a platoon preference by having a difference of almost 150 points in OPS when he faced righties versus lefties - not common for a left-hand hitter. Like Moss, Neslony was a late bloomer who put a bow on an otherwise underwhelming college career with a big senior season. And like Moss, I expect the logjam of outfielders at Florida will keep Neslong in Rome to begin 2017.

10.289: Marcus Mooney, SS, South Carolina

A heady player with pretty good defense all over the infield, Mooney played in all but five of Danville's regular season games in 2016. He hit just .264, but walked 14 times and was hit by a pitch TWENTY-ONE times. That pushed his OBP into the .356 range. He doesn't have much pop, but seems like a good bet to keep doing enough to progress up the ladder. I would be shocked to see Mooney play in the majors, but he'll make his minor league squads better.

Other picks: Righty Matt Rowland, taken in the 11th round, did not pitch in 2016 due to injury, but his mid-90's velocity could help him open some eyes in 2017....12th and 13th rounders Brandon White and Brandon White (respectably) were not on the same team in 2016, which was sad. The first White dominated at Danville and will likely be the one to watch in 2017...1B Ramon Osuna, picked in the 14th round, showed some power with Danville with four moonshots...Right-hander and 17th round pick Devan Watts looked impressive at Rome (0.92 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 3.8 K/BB)...27th round selection Corbin Clouse, a southpaw, spent the last two months of the season striking out 14 batters per nine innings with Rome. If you are trying to predict the first 2016 selection to reach the majors, Clouse is worth your consideration...Though he struggled in the Gulf Coast League, 28th round pick Nicholas Shumpert was a 7th round pick in 2015 and has some intriguing athleticism...Selected in the 34th round out of Cal Tech, OF Jared James played a month with Rome and hit .302 with 3 HR and 5 steals. Could be a sneaky good pick...Sadly, 33rd round pick, Handsome Monica, did not sign.

2016 Draft: Day 2 Sees Braves Budget Their Funds

Yesterday, we saw the Braves make a total of eight selections to go with the four they made Thursday as part of the 2016 MLB Draft. Thursday was all about going big and manipulating the draft to their liking. Friday was a lot different as the Braves picked seven college kids from a variety of programs along with one high school player. Not only did they grab a a lot of college guys, their final five selections were all senior (i.e. easy to sign). Let's dive in.

Round 3, 80th overall - Drew Harrington, LHP, Lousville, Jr. - Overshadowed on a Cardinals team by higher drafted righties Nick Burdi and Kyle Funkhouser, Harrington moved from the bullpen this season and excelled as a starter with a 2.08 ERA in a tough conference while surrendering just three homeruns. He was actually their ace, but of course, that doesn't necessarily translate to pro ball. Many believe his future will be in the bullpen and I'm inclined to agree. That doesn't make this pick bad - just curious at first look. Baseball America had Harrington 124th on their pre-draft Top 500 so one might call this pick a reach, but the Braves will make some concessions to get their prize trio of prep arms signed so if they save money with this slot (worth $788,800), the Braves will be happy. Harrington works off his fastball, which gets good late movement, and then mixes in a slider. Both pitches have enough projection to help Harrington become a high leverage reliever.

Round 4, 109th overall - Bryse Wilson, RHP, Orange High School (NC) - Good value from a guy who was absolutely lights out in high school. The biggest question attached to Wilson is will he be able to develop a third pitch at some point so he can have a future as a starter? If not, the Braves have another reliever on their hands - though Wilson has been clocked with better velocity and the slide piece flashes plus potential. Ranked #93 by Baseball America, Wilson is committed to UNC, but I imagine if the Braves were trying to go underslot here, they already have a deal pretty much agreed upon. Wilson is athletic with a smooth delivery, but again, unless he adds a third pitch, the Braves spent their third and fourth round picks on relievers a year after drafting A.J. Minter #75.

Round 5, 139th overall - Jeremy Walker, RHP, Gardner-Webb, Jr. - Another pitcher, but this time, the Braves grab a small college guy. I couldn't find a lot on Walker, but it appears he can reach the mid-90's with his velocity and seemed to take a nice step forward this year in the Big South. He upped his strikeout total to 8.88 per nine (two more per nine than he had in 2015). He has great control and a nice slider to go with his fastball. I assume he has a change-of-pace, which will prompt the Braves to try him out as a starter. This is one of those moves where I trust the Braves because Baseball America had him ranked about 200 picks before the Braves grabbed him.

Round 6, 169th overall - Matthew Gonzalez, 2B, Georgia Tech, Sr. - An 11th rounder by the A's in 2012 who became a Yellow Jacket rather than signing, Gonzalez spent four years improving his game until a breakout campaign as a senior where he posted a .199 ISO and made a lot better contact. Defensively, he's got the skills (moreso at second or third), but will he hit enough? Last year, he did and if he continues to bloom late, the Braves got themselves a righty with some pop.

Round 7, 199th overall - J.B. Moss, LF, Texas A&M, Sr. - After moving to center field, Moss blossomed for the Aggies this year with a .325/.416/.486 slash. The ISO of .161 was just eight points better than last year, but the overall results were much better. He also went from six steals in nine attempts as a junior to 16 successful steals in as many attempts.

Round 8, 229th overall - Taylor Hyssong, LHP, UNC Wilmington, Sr. - Spent a year at Pitt Community College before transferring to UNCW in 2015. Last year, he got a chance to pitch more, but mainly as a reliever. Interestingly, his LinkedIn page says he was seeking an internship after graduating with a management degree from UNCW. He tossed three scoreless innings against UNC as they beat the nationally-ranked Tar Heels in May. Nothing really stands out in his numbers.

Round 9, 258th overall - Tyler Neslony, RF, Texas Tech, Sr. - The Braves try their luck again with a college senior with big numbers in his final taste of college ball (.308/.398/.526). He actually hit well during his entire career in Lubbock. He'll be limited to the corners and he might have more power in his bat than we saw in college. If so, this could be a sneaky good pick for a smart and committed ballplayer. That said, Neslony is not that different from any number of college bats that are selected as seniors in the 6th-to-10th round range - they would have been drafted higher if they had enough believers. Neslony didn't, but he'll have a chance to prove he has more to give.

Round 10, 289th overall - Marcus Mooney, SS, South Carolina, Sr. - You got to like a kid who comes back as a senior in a big way. Mooney hit just .213/.275/.296 as a junior and tore his hamstring. But he would come back in 2016 and slash .311/.408/.478. So, kudos on that. Mooney hit for no power in college (just 2 HR in 757 AB) nor did he flash much speed.

After a brilliant first day, the second day screamed of restraint so that the Braves could sign their big pieces. They settled for college guys who would be easy to sign over talent that was much more thought of. I like both Harrington and Wilson - especially if the latter can progress into a starter. Gonzalez has some intrigue, but the rest of the Top 10 rounds were just not overly exciting picks. The rest of the draft is free from the slot bonus rules, which might allow Atlanta to get a little bit more creative with their drafting because Day 2 was just...meh.

FYI, I won't do a review for today's picks because many of the 30 or so players won't sign. If I do a review, it will be after we know who signs.

The Braves Draft All the Pitchers

Let's be honest. Yesterday's first two rounds of the 2016 MLB draft were weird.

For all of the talk about the Braves' interest in outfielders Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray, along with pitchers Jason Groome and Riley Pint, the Braves played the long game instead. The slot bonus era has its advantages, but one of its disadvantages is that it rewards teams going "cheaper" with their top pick to spread out funds elsewhere. The Braves played that to the tee with the pick of right-hander Ian Anderson.

A Vanderbilt recruit, Anderson was picked in large part because of a pre-draft deal in place which would allow the Braves to apply their strategy. Even so, let's not ignore that Anderson is a great talent in his own right. Just 170 pounds, he has room to grow into his 6'3" frame and shore up his strength. His fastball has seen a peak in the 97 mph range, but at this point, he sticks in the low 90's. That said, more physical maturation could increase his average velocity a few ticks. His breaking stuff needs refinement (which applies to all 18 year-old pitchers), but it has plus potential especially with his curveball. The sluve/slider needs tightening. He also has a change-up that he has a great handle on. If that's the framework the Braves are working with, they are already ahead of the game.

His delivery is smooth to the plate and quick. He falls off toward the first base a bit, which might be an area the Braves work on to try to make him a better fielding pitching. That said, I think the bigger concern is trying to make sure he doesn't rush his delivery. With that in mind, that's nit-picking what was a solid choice. Granted, according to multiple publications, he doesn't Pint or Groome's higher-end projection, but he brings a great combination of current skills and projection. While many experts had him in the 12-18 overall range, the difference between Anderson and the ones that were projected ahead of him is unlikely to be significant in this draft. All probably have a similar Future Value grade when scouts grade them and there are whispers that the Braves ranked Anderson as the best overall pitcher in the 2016 draft.

The Anderson choice, however, made it more possible to select top talent with their next two selections. First up was Shawness Mission East left-hander, Joey Wentz. Already 6'5" and 220, Wentz throws a low 90's fastball with movement and a great curveball that will be difficult for lefthanders to get a handle on. His change-up needs more consistency, but the good news is that Wentz might have the cleanest and easiest delivery of any pitcher in the draft - especially with his height. Wentz has a profile worthy of a Top 15 grade, but scouts wanted to see him pitch at a big time college program first before advocating their team take him that high. He has been committed to UVA for some time and will take a lot of effort to sign him, but if the money saved from the third pick helps the Braves add Wentz, it works out perfectly.

Wentz did fall because of another reason - he suffered from dead arm in high school, prompting his team to play him at first base to keep him in the lineup. For what it's worth, he's got serious power as a hitter, though he projects as an even better pitcher.

Another good hitter and left-handed pitching option, Kyle Muller was the Braves selection with the #44 overall pick. There are a lot of similarities here to Wentz. Muller might have a bit higher average velocity, though his secondary pitches need more refinement. His regular delivery is consistent and he is deliberate throughout the motion without much unneeded movement. His motion from the stretch  needs work as he flies open way too much as he tries to get on top of his pitches. Muller probably would be a Top 5 pick if he continues on his current trajectory and heads to Texas (and stays healthy), but if the Braves are able to sign him, they have another first round talent on their hands.

The final player the Braves took on Thursday was catcher Brett Cumberland. Outfield Fly Rule's Brent Blackwell commented in their facebook group, "If we could somehow combine Cumberland and Lucas Herbert, we'd have the best catcher prospect in the game." He's not wrong. As highly as Herbert's defense is thought of, Cumberland's bat is just as good - if not better. A switch-hitter with discipline and the ability to hit for average and power, Cumberland belted 16 homers in the Pac-12 last year as a sophomore. But...will he stay at catcher?

It depends on who you ask and also, at least to me, what the bigger concern is. If Cumberland shows a knack for pitch receiving and framing, I can deal with a below-average arm. If both are a problem, it will all boil down to how good his bat becomes. He could certainly be shifted to first base or left field, which could even help his already impressive offensive game.

The draft continues today and the Atlanta Braves could satisfy their fans unreasonable expectations by selecting more bats, but what we saw in the first two rounds was the exactly right way to approach the major league draft. You never reach for current need as it might not be a need when the player you draft reaches the majors. You take what the draft gives you and this draft was big on prep high school arms. The Braves also tried to be creative and hedge their bets with three first-round talents rather than just one. Now, they have to sign those players, but if they do, Atlanta has added a trio of high-reward pitchers to their farm system already bursting at the seems with them. Such moves open up the discussion all the more for trading pitchers. The Braves can better afford to trade Julio Teheran or Matt Wisler and withstand a loss to the system by trading Touki Toussaint or Sean Newcomb.

Also...let's not forget that in addition to the 2016 draft, the Braves will be big players on the international free agent market. Their top target, Kevin Maitan, has higher upside than any player in the draft and the Braves already have a handshake agreement.

Recently, I went over the Best 5 and Worst 5 drafts since 2000. One common theme for the drafts, especially under Frank Wren, was an insistence on drafting for need - specifically guys who were safe bets to get to the bigs. Atlanta acquired so many college arms and bats, but saw many of them max out as AAAA filler. The current Braves braintrust values future overall value versus playing it safe. The Braves will certainly see their fair share of busts from this approach, but their chances of developing an All-Star are much higher this way. While it's impossible to grade the first two rounds a day after they were selected, the approach is a clear A++.