Walk-Off Talk 2.1: Figuring Out the Hot Corner

A couple of weeks ago, we tried to help out John Coppolella out by finding the new manager of the Braves. That kind of seems like a waste now, but this series continues as we look into finding the Braves a new third baseman. The next general manager can thank us later. A month-and-a-half ago, Stephen went over some options the Braves could look at this winter, but we may need to dive even deeper into this subject. As Stephen astutely pointed out, this is the fifth year since Chipper Jones retired and third base has been a weakness for the Braves nearly every season - save that one year Chris Johnson made a deal with the devil. Once you take that season (2013) out of the equation, the Braves have amassed 4.6 fWAR from their third basemen. To put that into perspective, a half-dozen third baseman just this year had 5 fWAR or better.

Suffice it to say, third base needs help. Which, interestingly enough, is why we're here today. There are some options hitting the free agency market this offseason and others who may be potentially available in trades that could help turn third base from its horrid current status and make it at least bearable - maybe even a plus. Furthermore, despite the struggles this season at third base, there are even some options already on the payroll that could work for Atlanta in 2018 and maybe beyond.

I think I'll start with that last option.

In-House Options

Tommy: As I said, it seems difficult to advocate for much more of the same next season with so little production from the hot corner this season, but there is hope. It begins with Johan Camargo. Miscast as a middle infielder because of iffy range, Camargo is a natural fit at third base where his arm is a plus even by third basemen standards. While it's very difficult to feel confident about the defensive metrics with so few innings to judge (roughly 300), Camargo's defense was between very good and potentially excellent during his short time at third base. Again, the metrics are susceptible to short sample size problems, but I can say that my eye test agrees with the metrics. That might have more value if my favorite team will ever give me a job as a scout - which probably would be a mistake for the Braves (but I’m good with that).

Offensively, questions will remain about Camargo much like they did for the guy many compare him to - Martin Prado. Until he repeats his new-found offensive success, people naturally will be skeptical. I think it's safe to say he wasn't the hitter we saw during the first few months when he posted a .357 wOBA before the All-Star Break. In the second half, and this includes time missed with injury, Camargo posted a .310 wOBA. Why, you might ask, did that happen? A nearly 100 point drop in BABIP will do that to ya. That said, what I do like despite the discrepancy in splits stats is that he still had similar rates of grounders, line drives, and quality of contact stats. We may not know what kind of hitter Camargo ultimately is right now, but it's hard for me to think he hasn't at least proven that he deserves a spot on the 2018 roster.

That spot could be as a platoon partner for Rio Ruiz. The one thing about Camargo is that he's done a great deal of his damage against lefties. His wOBA against them is closer to .500 than it is .400. That could suggest that Ruiz, who has struggled throughout his minor league career against southpaws, might fit in nicely with Camargo as a platoon. It’s worth mentioning that Ruiz hasn't done much of anything against right-handers this season despite the Braves' best efforts to shield him from southpaws. He posted a .235 wOBA in 138 PA against them. That said, you have to believe that his ultra-low .218 BABIP will also climb just like Camargo’s pre-All-Star Break BABIP was destined to regress.

Even from people who like Ruiz - and I'm one - the common belief is that he profiles as a platoon option at best in the majors. What does concern me with Ruiz is that he's always put the ball on the ground a lot and major league pitchers are only turning that issue into a bigger one. He hits the ball hard, but when it's on the ground, it still turns into an out at a high rate. Maybe increased work this offseason to elevate his launch angle will lead to more balls finding the outfield, more hits, and more extra-base hits. I will say that his defense, which has had commentators split on its quality, looks much-improved in 2017. He can't match Camargo defensively, but I think he'll be good enough to be league-average with a chance of being potentially better.

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And maybe that's fine for the Braves as they wait for a couple of reinforcements like Travis Demeritte and Austin Riley. Demeritte had a lost year at the plate in Mississippi, but by midseason in 2018, he could be in the mix if he bounces back. Defensively, I think he'll be fine though the arm profiles better at second base. The question is his bat and while he'll always have his flaws, I think there is enough value here if he is able to rebound. Riley surprised a lot of onlookers with a 48-game run in Mississippi where he slashed .315/.389/.511. He'll next try his hand at the Arizona Fall League, which could help propel him into the discussion for a spot with the big league club at some point next year. That said, the .393 BABIP in Mississippi and short sample size makes me pump the breaks. Certainly an exciting prospect, but not yet ready to bring out the anointing oils as Coach Bill Parcells might say.

There's also Adonis Garcia.

So, what do you guys think about staying in-house? Would you be comfortable with that option even if it's not your preferred path or believe the Braves would be making a mistake by playing it cheap and conservative this winter?

Ryan: I was headstrong on Johan Camargo and I thought it was beyond ridiculous that the Braves, who were in the late stages of the rebuild and should covet 40-man roster spots, would waste one on a player that had done nothing at any level in the minor leagues. I’m glad the Braves have scouts that can weigh talent better than I can.

Camargo has really grown on me and, in my opinion, is the exact type of player that the Braves need...but not as an everyday player. A switch-hitter that can put up quality at-bats and can play all infield positions well defensively, that’s a Javier Baez-like weapon and I want it for 2-3 starts/week to give ample rest to all around the diamond.

Rio Ruiz is someone I have yet to grow fond of as I just don’t see the potential. At best, he’s a player that needs a platoon partner. At worst, he’s a player that doesn’t succeed even as a platoon partner. Right now, I don’t know which way his career will go but there’s nothing in his MLB or MiLB numbers that give me confidence that he should be given a role as a big leaguer.

I’m still holding out hope on Demeritte or Riley, but it’s my opinion that the Braves should not solely depend on these guys to be ready in 2019. With that being said, unless the Braves can make a huge splash and lock up a stud 3B for many years, I’d like to see a 2-year commitment to a free agent or trade acquisition in hopes that these guys could take over in late ‘19 or early ‘20.

Stephen: Hello boys! Yeah as Tommy said, I just recently wrote some of this up in a post but 3 opinions on the subject certainly allow for a more comprehensive look so I’m pumped to see what you guys think.

The best thing I can say about going in-house for 3B is it doesn’t cost anything. It’s kind of a holding move. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing given where Atlanta is in the winning cycle. It gives the future GM one more year to evaluate guys like Demeritte and Riley before committing move. There’s a perfectly rational argument that’s exactly what they should do and not just at 3B.

As for the guys themselves, I see both as bench guys more than everyday guys. Camargo is a guy I would turn into Javy Baez and allow his defense and versatility drive his value. Then, anything you get offensively is a plus. Rio is a straight bench bat for me. In a one-year, still-rebuilding-situation, I could live with him as ½ half of a 3B platoon but I certainly don’t believe he’s the long term answer.

Adonis Garcia is a hard no. I think that’s self-explanatory.

Free Agent: Mike Moustakas

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Ryan: If there’s any high profile free agent that gets my stomach all in knots when thinking of future production, it’s Moose. At 29 years old next year, Moustakas will likely sign at least a 5-year deal that would take him through his age 33 season. While I’ve made a point recently how absurd it is to think players turn into pumpkins at 30, the thick body type of Moose does give me nightmares of Uggla. He’s going to get a big contract and I hope it’s not with the Braves.

Stephen: Overall, I like Moose as a player. The power is obviously real and the defense isn't going to kill you. He’s solid over there. Another plus is he’s left-handed which I think will end up fitting better with what’s going to be here in 2018. The knocks against Moose include the potential contract. As Ryan pointed out, he’s going to get big money as the best hitting 3B on the market. And with other richer teams looking to fill 3B as well, I don’t see how Atlanta competes in free agency.

The other knock on Moose is for all that power, he still put up just a 114 wRC+ last year, mostly because of a .315 OBP. Don’t get me wrong, a 114 is solid but when compared with the contract he’s going to get, plus the likelihood there will be some age regression, it’s not hard to talk yourself into the idea that replacement level performance is in his near future.

Conclusion, I don’t see Atlanta treading in the deep end of free agency and Moustakas ends up with someone else.

Tommy: I just don’t get it. I haven’t gotten it with Moose for a while now. His defense could be on the decline - too early to truly state that but his numbers took a big step back this year in nearly every metric. It's easy to overvalue defensive metrics, but coming off his ACL injury in 2016, it's something to keep an eye on. Stephen mentioned that it's kind of shocking how little overall value he brought to the table considering the power numbers he posted. The guy had 38 homers after all. Despite that, he finished the season with a 2.2 fWAR. Let someone else pay his salary for the upcoming year and the several to follow. The flaws are just too great for me to think the salary the market will pay matches the value he brings.

Free Agent Todd Frazier

Stephen: Frazier is not a guy I mentioned in my original post and he is kind of interesting. Always with plenty of power and always solid with the glove, Frazier offers an outside-the-organization holding move. He’ll start 2018 at 32 years old so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the best he’s going to do is a 2 or 3-year deal. A 2-year deal allows you to plug a hole without any long-term commitment and gives you plenty of time to understand what you have. In 2 years we’ll know way more about guys like Riley and Demeritte and even Kevin Maitan.

Conclusion, in a 2-year deal, I’m fine with it. Anything more and I have serious reservations.

Tommy: Frazier is a tough sell. We're talking about a guy who's hit under .220 the last two seasons and heads into his Age-32 season for the first year of any new deal he signs. However, what Frazier brings is value. He's amassed 21.2 fWAR over his first six-plus seasons and has turned into a consistent, albeit quiet, source of power. The most intriguing thing about Frazier is the way he's reinvented himself over the last two years. He's cut down significantly on his swing rates and as a result, he walks at roughly a 5-7% higher rate than he did prior to 2016. He's not striking out more or sacrificing power, though the hits have stopped coming at the same rate and much of that is due to an oddity in what happens after he hits the ball. This season, his BABIP dropped to .226 after being .236 the previous year. Before 2016, his career BABIP was .288. So, the new approach is costing him hits, but he's supplementing it with walks. I'm not entirely sure what prompted this change, but it's rather interesting.

Defensively, he fits the bill of the solid gloveman who won't win many awards.

I think we're all in agreement about one thing - we like Frazier, we like the value, we don't like a long-term commitment. That said, this is a situation that could work in the Braves' favor as teams bid on Moustakas. If the Braves are sold on Frazier, make him your priority - and make him know he is - and put the potential deal on the table for the corner infielder. It could turn into a nice match.

Ryan: I’ve always had a fondness for Todd Frazier.  By many, he’s said  to be a “3 true outcomes” guy, but that’s just not true. Yes he walks a lot and hits dingers a lot, but his K% is right along the lines of normal power hitters and not even in the same conversation as a player like Adam Dunn. Also, Frazier’s defense is a pretty strong commodity at 3B, even at 31 years old. If the Braves could secure Frazier on a 2-year deal with a 15-18MM annual salary, I think he would be a great fit behind Freddie Freeman.

Free Agent: Eduardo Nunez

Ryan: The Braves tried to trade for him when he was a Yankee, but it didn’t work out. Now Nunez is putting up solid, yet unspectacular numbers, at 3rd base. Essentially capable of playing anywhere on the diamond, he would be a good addition to any team...that didn’t already have a younger version of him in Johan Camargo. There was a window, after Omar Infante and Martin Prado, in which Nunez made a lot of sense for the Braves. Now, Camargo’s gloves of different lengths have a firm grasp on that window.

Tommy: Hard to fathom that Nunez has posted 4.8 fWAR the last two seasons while playing in three different cities. I like the idea of Nunez in much of the same role the previous general manager thought of when he signed Sean Rodriguez. Nunez could fill in all over the field and provide depth should the Braves need it. I'm less of a fan of Nunez as the unquestioned starter at third base, but as a stop gap/super utility player, it's hard not to like the value if the money doesn't get too crazy.

Stephen: Where Nunez is interesting is he figures to be right in Atlanta’s wheelhouse in terms of cost. He certainly not going to move the needle in terms of World Series odds but he’s a solid major league 3B, which is a lot more than they’ve had the last 5 years. It just deepens the roster. Allows Camargo to play that super utility role. Allows you to be more selective with how and when you use Ruiz. Gives you insurance in case Dansby struggles again and Camargo has to play more SS. It just gives you options, at what I’m guessing is an affordable rate. I’d be fine if they went this route.

Free Agents With No Fanfare:
Brandon Phillips

Ryan: As Brandon is the only player on this list that I do not despise watching, I’ll put in my opinion on Phillips. I don’t want him back on the Braves team...ever again. He was fun enough to watch, but he’s not coming to play 2nd base for this team and his demeanor when moved to 3B wasn’t good for the team.  I thank him for being an entertaining Brave. Good luck in the future with another team.

Stephen: Brandon is a no for me. I guess I can make some sense out of a 1-year deal for 4 or 5 million but I really don’t want to. If this becomes an option then I’d just prefer going in-house and using the money elsewhere.

Yunel Escobar

Stephen: Man, it’s hard to get excited about Yunel Escobar. He’s a soon-to-be 35-year-old who just put a sub 1 WAR season so I’m going to echo my Brandon Phillips thoughts. If it gets to this point just go in-house and save the money.

Jose Reyes

Tommy: Jose Reyes actually got hot toward the second half of the season, slashing .288/.356/.472 after the All-Star Break with a 121 wRC+. Defensively, he was a mess, though. He's not much of a shortstop at this stage of his career and is pretty much limited to second base. Hard pass - and that's without getting into the PR mess for a front office that doesn't need any more bad press.

Danny Valencia

Tommy: Two years ago, Valencia was a guy who finally was figuring it out after posting just the second 2-win season of his career. In the 260 games since, Valencia has been pretty bad. He has some value against left-hand pitching, but the Braves already have Camargo. Signing Valencia would be a waste of resources as he doesn't provide anything new for the Braves.

Shot in the Dark: Zack Cozart 

Ryan: Memphis, Tennessee. Home to lots of cool things including Zack Cozart. And if I’m not mistaken, Memphis is still located in Braves Country. Would Cozart make a transition to 3B to come play with the Atlanta Braves? My guess is heck no. He still has a ton of value as a good defensive SS and would lose a good chunk of that value should he make a transition to 3B. But like the suggestion with the Toddfather, could the Braves entice Cozart to come to the hot corner with a little extra cash, say something like 2 years/30MM? I doubt it, but his glove and power potential would be a welcomed addition.  If I had to rank all of the free agent candidates, he’d be at the top of my list, but like the title says, it’s a shot in the dark.

Stephen: Yeah, I don’t really see Cozart as an option but I guess that’s why he’s in the shot-in-the-dark section.

My reasoning for Cozart is simply I think someone will pay him handsomely to be their everyday SS and Atlanta won’t come close to some of the offers he gets in dollars or years. He is 32 though so I could be misreading his market. Maybe a 2-year deal is the best he can do but I wouldn’t bet on it. He just put up a 5 WAR season so I’m guessing someone offers a 4-year deal at which point Atlanta is out regardless of what the money is.

Tommy: I look at this much like Ryan does - it’s just too hard to see it happening. That said, one thing that could make Cozart a possibility is a shallow market at shortstop. With so many young shortstops emerging right now, a lot of the older guys will be left in the dust. That could limit Cozart's options this winter. Remember how Ian Desmond entered the free agent market a few years ago and couldn't find any takers? To be fair, Desmond was entering the market after a down year while Cozart was one of the best players at his position last year. Nevertheless, Cozart might entertain a one-year deal and try his luck again next winter when more jobs potentially become available. Could he also entertain a move to third base for a season? Just as difficult to imagine, but hey...shot-in-the-dark, right?

Trade/Non-Tender Candidates

Ryan: I think everyone that has seen my Twitter feed in the past few weeks will know who I am going to discuss in this section. I want me some Josh Donaldson. I want to trade for him. I want to extend him for 25MM/year for 4 years total, and I want him to bring some fire to this team. Yes, I know he’s on the wrong side of 30 and no, I don’t expect him to become a pumpkin next year. Yes, he’s had injury concerns this year, but he’s as elite as it gets when healthy and likely the most underrated playing in the Major Leagues. If the price isn’t outlandish, let’s bring Donaldson back home to Braves country and watch him help bring the World Series to Suntrust!

Edit note: Bob Nightengale dropped this bombshell concerning the Cardinals pursuit of Josh Donaldson this offseason, and I have to say that if that happens, Jedd Gyorko would be a good consolation prize for the Braves as he’s good for 2-3 WAR, can man 3rd base regularly, but also has the flexibility to play other infield positions should an injury occur.

Stephen: I think by now people know my affection for Yandy Diaz of the Indians as I’ve written about him multiple times now so I’ll go somewhere else for this one.

I’m going to expand on Jedd Gyorko, though. 29 years old, under contract for 2 more seasons and has put up really solid numbers for St. Louis the past couple of years. If the Cardinals end up going after Donaldson as reported, then Gyorko could be had. Jedd isn’t the type of guy who changes your fortunes as a franchise but he has hit 50 HRs the last 2 years while playing above average defense. And again, he’s only under contract for 2 mores years at a total of 22M. That’s well within Atlanta’s budget. There’s also a club option on his deal in 2020 which makes his deal even more club friendly. Trading for him wouldn’t dominate the news cycle but it would add a really solid player to your team for 2 or 3 years.

Tommy: Luis Valbuena crashed and burned after signing with the Angels last winter, but he could be a nifty pickup for the Braves this offseason. He'll be heading into his Age-32 season and is owed at least $8.5M through the end of next season (additional $8M if 2019 option is picked up). The Angels are going to have to help the Braves out with some salary relief. Sadly, they already have an overpriced aging DH so any wishes of a Matt Kemp destination seems ridiculous, but Atlanta could ship Nick Markakis to the Angels. Before you say "lose one of our most consistent hitters for a guy who hit .199 last year," since Markakis became a Brave, Valbuena has slightly better .327 wOBA over Markakis' .323. That's with Valbuena's struggles last year in which he hit a buck ninety-nine.

The Angels would probably have to sweeten the deal with some cash considerations or a C+/B- prospect, but both teams could benefit from this type of trade in my mind. You could get deeper down the rabbit hole and bring Matt Adams into the deal while trying to pilfer some relief arms or prospects, but that's a bit too much for this article.

To sum up...

If somehow Cozart is cheap on a short-term deal...

If Frazier is willing to go short-term without engaging in a bidding war...

If Nunez is cheap enough...

If Donaldson, Gyorko, or Valbuena can be acquired without upsetting the rebuild...

Those would be the only reasons to go away from just staying in-house and trusting your young players to do the job in 2018. Short of something falling in Atlanta's lap, it's just not worth the investment.

Transaction Tuesday: September Callups with a Gohara Spotlight

With September call-ups in full swing, I decided to do something a little different today and give you guys a super-sized transaction recap that includes today's moves. Usually, I review the last week, but not include the day I publish the recap. However, with there likely being so few moves to go over for the next few weeks - and a big one in today's recap - let's dive into the last eight days.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 29 to September 5. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
(Stephen went over the Brandon Phillips trade and I also profiled Tony Sanchez, who joined the roster on September 1.)

Promoted from Gwinnett: Rex Brothers...I once made the FIP argument about Jim Johnson. I learned my lesson. Despite Brothers' decent-enough FIP of 3.84 compared to his 6.88 ERA, I'm not buying Brothers as a good option for the bullpen.

G-Braves Media

SPOTLIGHT Promoted from Gwinnett: Luiz Gohara (#8)...I loved the trade to go get Gohara, but even I'm shocked by how much he cruised through the minors. This is a guy who had made 12 appearances at low-A coming into this season. My hope was that he would spend half of the year in Florida before a promotion up the ladder to Mississippi. That would put him on a trajectory for a midseason-2018 ETA, but the Braves said "hold my beer" and pushed him to the moon. To his credit, Gohara only responded to such an aggressive push.

In seven starts with Florida, Gohara dominated the Florida State League with a sub-2.00 ERA and over a K an inning. That got Gohara a call-up to Mississippi and despite leaving his first start and spending a week on the DL, Gohara kept rolling with a 2.60 ERA and 60 K's in 52 innings before heading to Gwinnett. There, he logged 35.1 ING over seven starts with 48 K's. Now, he's in the majors. I forgot to say, "Hi, Jerry DiPoto!"

Gohara mixes easy mid-to-late 90 mph heat with a slider that is just a beautiful thing to watch. You can judge how much a slider bites on the kind of stats we get in the majors, but the best way of judging it in in the minors is to watch hitters look mystified and Gohara's slider has that effect on hitters. The reason why Gohara is now in the majors, though, is the improvement we've seen with his changeup. It's not near the other two pitches in effectiveness, but it's good enough now for Gohara to throw with confidence. Without that improvement, we don't see Gohara this year.

The biggest thing with Gohara, no pun intended, is the weight. Can he keep it a manageable level? One of the worst-kept secrets in baseball is that Gohara isn't close to the 210 pounds his bio says he is. If he can't keep his weight from becoming a problem, it could limit him long-term. That said, he's going to have access to the best trainers and dietitians money can buy now that he's reached the majors. If he keeps the weight at pudgy instead of fat, he could be a frontline arm in the major leagues.

Promoted from Gwinnett: David Freitas...If, before the season, you tried to come up with a group of Braves who would make their major league debut this season, Freitas would not be on your list. The former 2010 15th rounder out of Hawaii got his shot because of an injury and despite Sanchez's acquisition, it's Freitas who continues to receive some playing time as Kurt Suzuki's backup. Part of that is due to his familiarity with the young Braves' arms. Nevertheless, Freitas may receive the Anthony Recker-treatment and stick around all offseason hoping the Braves don't add another catcher via free agency.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Max Fried (#21)...Fried was used all kinds of wrong in his earlier promotion, but the Braves brought him back in a starter role and he did just fine against the defending World Champions, limiting the Cubs to one run on four hits over five innings. He struck out four and picked off a batter. Fried will continue to get looks in the rotation moving forward as the Braves search for answers for the 2018 staff.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Micah Johnson...What a crazy few days it's been for Johnson. He was twitter designated for assignment on Friday. What's that, you may ask? That's when you find out via twitter of a transaction involving you. The Braves later said they weren't DFAing Johnson, though it clearly was thought about. Instead, he was in the lineup for Gwinnett the next day and hit a homer. Now, on Tuesday, he received a promotion to the big leagues and looks like he'll stick around for the rest of the season.

Promoted from Gwinnett: Rio Ruiz (#25)...On one side, Ruiz had a worse 2017 than he did 2016 with Gwinnett as his AVG and OBP were quite a bit lower. On the other hand, his ISO was much improved and in the end, it left him with a .341 wOBA compared to the .342 wOBA he posted with the G-Braves the previous season. Ruiz received some playing time with the major league team earlier this year and now, he seems poised to receive the lion-share of playing time for the rest of the season. The .270 BABIP will climb and with it, his batting average. He's walking at a nice rate and has flashed some renewed power since rejoining the team last week. The Braves are looking for a reason not to spend a lot of money or prospects on a third baseman this winter. Whatever Ruiz does this month will help them in deciding which way they go.

Activated: Johan Camargo (#23)...Camargo, Take 2 begins with the cannon-armed youngster having lost his shortstop gig following Dansby Swanson's resurgence. He's not even being handed the third base job after Phillips was traded as the Braves appear committed to getting a long look at Ruiz. And that's probably for the best. Camargo was off to a great start, but the league re-wrote the scouting report during the All-Star Break and since, Camargo was hitting .247/.291/.395. True, that's a small sample size of 86 PA. As was his successful run of 111 PA. Somewhere in the middle of these two distinct splits is the actual Camargo and that's not to slight the player. He's improved quite a lot since last year and looks to be a major league player. However, do I think he's an everyday starter, even at third where I do believe his defense is much better suited? Not really, but I also wouldn't be too upset if the Braves go with Ruiz/Camargo heading into 2018 because I believe the duo can work out for Atlanta.

Activated: Adonis Garcia...He's hitting .245/.280/.348. The other day, someone tried to argue that keeping Garcia over Micah Johnson was the better move because of options. Foolishly, I failed to reply, "He's hitting .245/.280/.348. That's not an option." Granted, it's a little trolling because he was speaking of minor league options, but still. Joke. Landed.

Activated: Luke Jackson...The best thing about Jackson this season has been his sitcom-worthy bromance with Lane Adams. That's probably not something you should say about a major league pitcher. He's still only 26, but Jackson throws one of the most boring 95 mph fastballs in the league.

Activated: Ian Krol...I don't even want to talk about this anymore.

Activated and put on 60-day DL: Danny Santana...Apparently, Santana is still struggling with a quad injury and after being activated off the disabled list, the Braves thought better and placed Santana on the 60-day DL. That's just fine in my book as Santana has played too much since joining the Braves. Since being acquired, Santana has a .245 OBP and over a month of action before hitting the DL, he played in 27 games (10 starts) while slashing .161/.175/.286. That was 58 PA of essentially a pitcher who occasionally pops a homer. Sometimes, you have to Snit-proof the roster and giving Brian Snitker a player like Santana is asking for trouble.

DL'd: Tyler Flowers...The expectation after the trade and subsequent activation of Sanchez was that Flowers might miss significant time -  potentially the rest of the year - but he's expected back by this weekend. So, there's that. Flowers has significantly cooled off after his tremendous start, hitting .208/.311/.426 since July 4, but he still has the inside track on beginning 2018 as the starting catcher.

DL'd: Jason Motte...The way Brian Snitker was using his bullpen, it was Arodys Vizcaino, Jim Johnson, and Jose Ramirez from the 7th to 9th innings with the lead and before that, Snitker went to his B-Team of Jackson, Krol, and Motte. That sounds like the worst law firm ever. Despite a FIP climbing to 6, Motte kept getting crunch time games while other younger and more talented arms pitched for Gwinnett. Fortunately, that looks to have stopped as the Braves decided his oblique was strained after giving up his sixth homer of the year last week. Funny how that happens. Motte had walked a batter in eight straight contests and he's likely thrown his last pitch for the Braves.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Sal Giardina...It seems like Giardina has been around for eight years, but it's actually only been half that. He made both his Double-A and Triple-A debuts this season and hit .264/.348/.329 over 161 PA. He's an organizational guy who can play the infield corners in a pinch.

Promoted from Mississippi: Dan Reynolds...Signed out of the independent leagues last winter, Reynolds was a solid, though unspectacular pitcher for Mississippi before a late-season promotion to Gwinnett. A veteran of six minor league seasons in the Angels' system before 2016, Reynolds still walks a few too many hitters and he'd probably get a pass on that if he threw with his left arm instead of his right arm. A minor league free agent, the Braves may not have room for Reynolds in 2018.

Phillips | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Activated: Evan Phillips...Sadly, some struggles late in the season have pushed Phillips' full-season numbers back up to ugly after he worked so hard to make them respectable. Phillips started the year much like he ended it - by giving up a bunch of runs. He surrendered 14 in his first five games (5 ING) but rebounded with a 3.35 ERA and a strikeout an inning over his next 32 games and 43 innings. Mixed in there was a promotion to Gwinnett at the end of May. However, he gave up five runs over his final 3.1 innings, which also includes a trip to the DL. Overall, give him a 6.14 ERA on the year.

Recalled and Optioned: Jason Hursh...Cheer up, Jason. This was the seventh and probably the last time you will be optioned to the minors this season. Hursh was the 26th man during a recent doubleheader and will probably rejoin the Braves once he completes his mandatory 10 days in the minors following a demotion. Hursh has a 4.30 ERA in the minors this year with nearly a strikeout an inning. He's allowed six runs in 10.2 ING over nine games in the majors.

DFA and Outrighted: Enrique Burgos...There was a time this year where it looked like Burgos was on the fast track for a promotion, but things went real bad over his last eight outings. In 5.2 innings, he gave up 11 runs, walked seven, and struck out eight. The Braves may have brought him down to Atlanta for a September look before his August stumbles. Now, he's likely thrown his last pitch as a Brave.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Raymar Navarro...He never pitched for Mississippi and the Cuban-born right-hander finishes his second year much like his first - with underwhelming numbers. With Danville, Rome, and Florida, Navarro has a 4.56 ERA in 51.1 innings. We'll see if he stays around for 2018.

Florida
Promoted from Danville: Jaret Hellinger...A 20th rounder with some hype two years ago, Hellinger received a brief run in Rome before the D-Braves' season began, but did little with it. He became one of Danville's most consistent arms after that, though, and finished the year with a two-inning appearance in Florida. Hellinger was a decent "get" out of Ola High School in McDonough, GA in 2015, but it's time we see some results. I imagine he'll receive an assignment with Rome to open 2018.

Promoted from Danville: Gary Schwartz...I've only seen him referred to as "Garrison," but either way, Schwartz had a big August for Danville and was awarded a three-game tryout in Florida to end the year. He didn't do so hot there with a 1-for-9 showing with a steal, a walk, and five K's. I imagine he'll head down to Rome to open 2018 and the former Grand Canyon University standout will get a shot to get back on track.

Promoted from GCL: Hayden Deal...I wrote about him a good deal earlier today in my GCL recap. Deal was added to Florida either for roster purposes or an extra arm, but he was never used.

DL'd: Kevin Mathews...The former Texas first rounder only logged 24.1 innings after joining the organization in early July. He gave up 22 hits, struck out 22, and walked 22. Somewhere, Jayson Stark just got excited. After a great start in Rome and a decent spot start at the end of July in Gwinnett, things kind of went bad in Florida for Matthews. The lefty has long has had a high-projection arm, but has had very few positive results with it. It'll be interesting to see if he's back in 2018.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Walter Borkovich...A Walk-Off Walk favorite, The Bork's first season after being undrafted out of Michigan State went rather well. Over 27.1 ING spread across three minor league stops, Borkovich finished with a 2.30 ERA, over a strikeout an inning, and just three walks. That comes out to a 10 strikeout per walk ratio, which is amazing. Now, can he do it again in 2018? That'll be fun to watch.

Promoted from Danville: Riley Delgado...This year's Marcus Mooney (i.e. high work ethic, grit, short on projection) is Delgado, a middle infielder out of Middle Tennessee State. He was picked in the ninth round to save money and in 22 games in Danville, hit just .232/.299/.246. He's a smooth fielder, both at second and shortstop, but you're simply not going to get much out of his bat. Probably will stick around in the system for a few years as a bench player.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Bladimir Matos...This was the third time Matos was demoted to Danville. The number of times he pitched for the D-Braves? Zero. Roster manipulation FTW!

Nothing doing for the GCL and DSL rosters, whose seasons are over.

The Freeman-To-Third 120 Inning Checkup

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I hated the idea of moving an elite first baseman to third base. It's difficult enough to play third base, but to chance your franchise cornerstone at a position he seemed unlikely to play at a decent rate? Why in the world would you do something like that? Just because he suggested it? Who's running the team?

And yes, I put a few of these arguments on this blog. I compared the hypothetical third-base-playing Freeman to Johan Camargo, which was unfair because Camargo is a very good third baseman (better than he is a shortstop, I'd wager). I compared the idea of Freeman playing third to Miguel Cabrera playing the position for the Tigers and how poorly Cabrera played it. My overall point was, "Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season?"

Boy, that looks like a typical blogger's overreaction. To this point, Freeman looks quite capable of playing the hot corner and maybe even staying there. Let me give you some numbers. Of major league third baseman with 120 innings at the position this year...

Freeman ranks tied for 12th in DRS with some pretty good defensive players in Adrian Beltre and Martin Prado. He ranks 13th in rPM. He ranks 10th in RZR.

But short sample size...

Freeman is now 24th in UZR/150 and climbing. He could be in the top 20 by mid-August and even higher by season's end.

But Tommy, it's just 120 innings...

And did you see some of the plays he's been making? The double play he started the other day? Catching this liner? The guy's a natural.



But...

Okay, I do hear you. It's an exceedingly short sample size. There are 54 players who have played 120+ innings at third base this year and defensive metrics, in general, aren't valuable until we have a couple of years in the tank to compare-and-contrast with. It's not that I don't get that and his numbers could regress to the point that Freeman isn't a better-than-average third baseman. Or maybe not even an average third baseman. Regardless, we might know a few things.

He's not an embarrassment at the position - something many of us (myself included) feared he'd be. He might not even lose overall value at the position. In fact, because third base is a more difficult position to play, he might see his value increased. That's a pretty difficult thing to do when you're an elite superstar at another position, but league-average defense at a tougher-to-play position is a more valuable asset. Finally, the Braves could head into next year with Freeman penciled in at third base and not feel like it is a huge problem.

None of that should be construed as believing Freeman shouldn't be moved back to first base. I do feel the Braves would be better off with that because, in a perfect world, the Braves have Dansby Swanson back and hitting at shortstop with Camargo slotting over to third base for the time being. But while Freeman isn't Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, or Jedd Gyorko at the position, to this point, he's also not Maikel Franco or Jake Lamb. For that matter, he's also not Chris Johnson or Adonis Garcia. He won't win a Gold Glove, but he seems capable enough of not hurting the team. Isn't that all the Braves were hoping for in the first place?

Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

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Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

The Great Run Differential Debate

As the Braves polished off the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon, ESPN's Dan Szymborski took to twitter. Things quickly went nutty from there.

Braves are at .500! With a similar run differential to the Mets, White Sox, Pirates, and Angels. So...yeah...

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) July 16, 2017

Ignoring the "So...yeah..." at the end, the tweet is accurate. With a run differential of -34, the Braves are reasonably close in run differential with the Mets (-40), White Sox (-36), Pirates (-25), and Angels (-25). These are all below-.500 squads with the White Sox over ten games under .500.

Szymborski would go on to argue the point as Braves fans confronted him. When fans would bring up losing Freddie Freeman for a significant amount of time and having Bartolo Colon struggle tremendously with the Braves and how these things affected run differential, Szymborski pointed out that you can't just take out the bad things. You also need to bring up the good things that have occurred that can not be counted on to be sustainable (he brings up Tyler Flowers having a .400 OBP and Freddie Freeman's adjusted OPS+ of 202).

Here's the thing - he's not wrong, but his approach is abysmal as he goes on to say that he "missed the BARVES crowd." Gee, thanks, Dan.

But back to his underlying point. Run differential can mean something. It's not the end-all of stats and can be sample-size driven. At the same time, it can tell us - as the season progresses - if a team is playing over or under what we should expect from them. The Expected Win-Loss Record, also called the Pythagorean expectation, is a nifty little tool for snapshot reasons. Most of the time, it proves fairly accurate and we see regression one way or the other.

There is a good deal of accuracy in run differential. It tells a story and it helps us predict the future.

Moving on, is there validity to the idea that, if you remove Colon's struggles and the beating the Astros gave the Braves a few weeks ago, the Braves are a better team? This is the other accurate point Szymborski attempts to make. The Braves are just as likely to improve without having to face the Astros or have Colon pitch every fifth day as they are to regress due to players beginning to fall back to their means (their catchers, Johan Camargo, and so on). Every team is dealing with similar issues - some more than others - and bringing them up as signs that the run differential is false may lose context.

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But here's the good news for Braves fans. The Braves are a team in flux. Of their opening day roster, four have been released while four others are on the Disabled List. A ninth player, Anthony Recker, is in the minors and a tenth player, Jace Peterson, will likely be demoted on Monday. In most of these cases, the Braves have improved when replacing members of their opening day roster. Johan Camargo is better than Adonis Garcia. Danny Santana is better than Emilio Bonifacio. Matt Adams is tremendously better than Chase d'Arnaud. The arms of Sean Newcomb, Luke Jackson, Jason Hursh, and Akeel Morris profile much better than the ones they replaced. The Braves are improving incrementally most of the time they choose a member of their minor league system over a player previously on the major league roster. That's something that run differential cannot speak to.

Consider this. The run differential at the end of May was -42. It's now down to -34. That's not a huge improvement, but it is an improvement. We can go an extra mile. Over 59 games, from May 12 to July 16, the Braves have a run differential of +1. Here's the math - 289 runs scored, 288 runs given up.

Is that cherry-picking? You betcha. May 12 was a win that put a halt to a six-game losing streak and also improved upon a season-worst nine games under .500. I didn't specifically look for a way to find an arbitrary point that would show the Braves with a positive run differential, but it ended up that way.

The Braves may not be a great team. Certainly, I've made that argument over this season. Defensively, they have significant issues and the pitching staff has been a season-long project. But they are improving and for fans of the Braves, that's exactly what you should be looking for with this rebuilding team. Are they ready for primetime (i.e. the playoffs)? I have my doubts, but are they the same team that only won 12 of their first 32 ballgames? Again, I have my doubts.

In the mean time, it's much too simple to chalk it all up to run differential and predict regression. This team is not the same one that opened up the season by losing 6-0 to the Mets. For Braves fans, that's a breath of fresh air.

Speed Has a New Measurement

On Tuesday, MLB released a new metric called Sprint Speed. The metric, which is part of the Statcast collection of numbers, is defined as "feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window."

The range is typically 23 ft/sec on the poor side and 30 ft/sec on the strong side. 27 ft/sec is about average.

Let's look at where the Braves sit.

Catcher
Tyler Flowers comes in at about 25.8. Now, that sounds below average, but you have to remember that we're talking about catchers here. Only ten catchers were at 26.5 ft/sec or better. For a little more perspective, former Braves catcher Evan Gattis came in a bit faster at 26.2 ft/sec, which is why he's a former outfielder, right? (sarcasm) The last qualified catcher was Brian McCann. 23.4. Only Albert Pujols was slower. By the way, I might pay to see them in a 40-yard dash.

First Base
Freddie Freeman is an agile first baseman. He ranked 26.6 ft/sec, which is about league average and just outside the Top 10 for first basemen. Matt Adams wasn't far behind, though, coming in at 26.2 ft/sec. Will Myers led this lot with a 28.5 ft/sec metric.

Second Base
Brandon Phillips is one of the slowest second basemen in baseball. In fact, he mimicked Freeman with a 26.6 ft/sec. To be fair, let's not make more of this stat than it is. It's a measure of speed and that's it. It's not a measure of defense or base stealing. Both skills can be improved with speed or hurt by a lack of, but speed is just one of the many variables that go into playing defense or stealing a base. Only four 2B rated lower than Phillips. Jace Peterson was around the average for this position at 27.2 ft/sec. Guys with former Braves ties like Jose Peraza (28.3 ft/sec) and Brandon Drury (27.3 ft/sec) also made the leaderboard.

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Shortstop
At 28.2 ft/sec, Dansby Swanson ranked sixth among shortstops. Swanson's speed is not a huge part of his game, but when he turns it on, he can make up some ground in a hurry. Former Braves like Nick Ahmed (28.1 ft/sec), Andrelton Simmons (27.9 ft/sec), and Elvis Andrus (27.6 ft/sec) also made the list.

Third Base
One thing is for sure. Freddie Freeman is just about as fast as Rio Ruiz, who came in at 26.7 ft/sec, and Adonis Garcia (26.6 ft/sec). All three are significantly slower than Johan Camargo, who matched fellow third baseman Jose Reyes with a 27.6 ft/sec. We didn't have the stat when Reyes was at his quickest, though. It was enough for Camargo to land in the Top 10.

Left Field
Matt Kemp is not the fleetest of foot. That's a bit of an understatement. Again, this is just speed, but Matt Kemp ranks dead last among LF with a 25.7 ft/sec. To put that into perspective, Kyle Schwarber is faster at 26 ft/sec. Melky Cabrera is faster at 26.0. I mentioned Gattis and he's leaving Kemp in the dust with a 26.2 ft/sec sprint speed. Ryan Klesko is warming up to make Kemp look dumb. Speed is one of many skills that make up a player, but Kemp might want to look into Forrest Gump's magic shoes. His mom told him they'll take him anywhere! Then again, after last night's catch, maybe he already did.

Center Field
Ender Inciarte is an elite center fielder, but he doesn't have elite center field speed. In fact, he's near the bottom with a 27.5 ft/sec, ninth worst. And that speaks to the limitations of this stat. While Inciarte is not Mallex Smith fast (29.2 ft/sec), it doesn't affect his ability to play his position as well as anyone in the game. It does mean that Inciarte probably won't be stealing thirty bases any time soon, however.

Right Field
You do have to give Inciarte a lot of credit because he's flanked by two of the slowest corner outfielders in baseball. Nick Markakis ranked as the sixth slowest right fielder with a 26.4 ft/sec rating. It's about a full one sec/ft slower than Jason Heyward, the man he replaced. Markakis is better at playing right field than Kemp is at playing left field so there's that. All told, the Braves have possibly the slowest starting outfield in baseball.

What do you think about this new stat? Does it tell you anything new and were you surprised by the metric's findings?

A Few Braves Notes

The Atlanta Braves were in a rain delay so I wanted to get a few random notes out to you guys and both come courtesy of Braves Option Guy. You know, BOG - the one guy ALL Braves fans follow. Or should, at least.

Today, the Braves optioned Rio Ruiz back to Gwinnett and brought Jace Peterson back. Ruiz has received an extended stay in the majors due to an Adonis Garcia injury (and re-injury), but has struggled to take advantage of what playing time he was getting. As he heads back to the minors, Ruiz is hitting a paltry .175/.264/.288 with three doubles, two homeruns, nine walks, and 25 strikeouts in 91 PA.

With Johan Camargo hitting well, Ruiz was limited to mostly bench work and that's not a positive for a 23 year-old who could still be a decent platoon hitter in the majors. Enter Peterson, who went to the minors earlier this month after hitting a paltry .194/.293/.259 in 123 PA with the Braves. Yes, I know I used paltry twice. Peterson raked in Gwinnett over 17 games, slashing a non-paltry .338/.450/.477 over 80 PA.

The reason I bring this up rather than wait until the next Transaction Tuesday is that the Braves could have avoided using an option this season on Peterson. He logged exactly 20 days with Gwinnett following his demotion, according to BOG. If an optioned player spends less than 20 days in the minors during a given season, the "option" won't actually be counted as an "option." Like BOG, I try to keep track of player options (though not as well as BOG) via this page and occasionally, I'll put a (p) next to a year indicating an option is pending. Peterson's pending option became an actual option as of yesterday. As it is his third option, he'll no longer have options after this season. Either the Braves lost track of that or simply do not care. I'm betting the latter.

In addition, BOG keeps track of draft signees. You can see his work to the right as of June 22. What I want you to focus on is the signing bonuses. This is one of those things that not all fans realize. From rounds 1-10, 100% of the signing bonus is counted. This is why the Braves inked so many players to - yes - paltry sums after the fourth round. Atlanta spent 87% of their available pool money to sign their first three picks after all.

While Bruce Zimmerman's signing bonus has yet to be announced - the same applies to many of the picks after the tenth round - we do know that the Braves spent $17K on rounds six thru ten. All 100% of that will be applied to the pool of money the Braves are allowed to spend to sign draft picks. But look at the eleventh round pick, Drew Lugbauer. The Braves gave him a $125,100 bonus - well over a hundred grand more than they gave the five draft choices before him combined!

This is because of a rule that only the money spent over $125,000 after the tenth round counts toward the draft pool. So, while the Braves gave Lugbauer a big bonus, only $100 goes toward the draft pool.

That, my friends, is called working the system and the Braves are better at that than most teams. Since dispatching Frank Wren, John Hart and John Coppolella have focused heavily on quality. They saw in Kyle Wright and Drew Waters, a pair of players that could be impact prospects. Now, the problem with that approach is the whole putting all of your eggs in one basket. If those two fail, the draft looks bad. The good thing, though, is that ceiling of both players are sky high. You can draft ten Todd Cunningham-type players and you'll have good luck that they'll make it to the majors. What you won't have is an impact player.