Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Saturday Stats Pack: Catching, Atlanta's Non-Manager, Acuna's Exploits

Johan Camargo's Shocking Season

Camargo started at shortstop Friday night and singled once in three trips to the plate. His average actually dropped a tad to .327 in the process. That's how's Camargo's surprising rookie campaign has gone to this point. Over 40 games, the switch-hitter has on-based .355 due to just a 4.5% walk rate but has shown new-found pop to keep his slugging a shade under .500. His numbers are remarkably similar to his Gwinnett metrics this season, though with a higher strikeout percentage. He's also benefitted from a .410 BABIP. Rather than address the chances his production remains stellar - that's not the purpose of this column - it's worth noting that we started to see some changes from Camargo last year (his ISO went up nearly 40 points) and at the age of 23-years-old, it's not unheard of to add muscle. To that possibility, people I've spoken to point out he that looks bigger and stronger than ever before. If the BABIP does fall - and I predict that it will - Camargo still could turn into a nice piece that belongs on a major league roster and maybe not all that glitters is gold, but in Camargo's case, some of it might just be.

The Starting Rotation Is Close to Something

Tonight, Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Braves. With a good game, he could push his fWAR over 1.0 for the season. Right now, the Braves still do not have a 1-win starter and only Jim Johnson has crossed that plateau as a pitcher for the Braves. Garcia is sitting at 0.9, slightly ahead of both Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb at 0.7. R.A. Dickey, whose recent success has been a big factor in the Braves looking better of late, has upped his season total to 0.6. To put that in another way, many people laughed at the Padres for starting Jhoulys Chacin on opening day - a guy the Braves gave away for a rookie-level lefty project last season. Chacin currently has a 1.2 fWAR. Granted, WAR is not the end-all, be-all of numbers, but it's a pretty damning reality of the state of the Braves' rotation.

Catching Strength

One surprising thing about the Braves this year has come from the production behind the plate. While Tyler Flowers impressed in limited action last year, not a lot of people felt he would repeat the effort this season considering mediocre career numbers. Hardly anyone thought Kurt Suzuki would add much with the bat, either. The results so far speak for themselves. Of 30 major league teams, only the Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, and Astros have a higher fWAR from their catchers than Atlanta's 2.3. The Braves rank third in catcher batting average, second in OBP, and ninth in slugging. The .352 wOBA ranks fourth while the 115 wRC+ is good for fifth. Atlanta has been blessed with tremendous catcher production over the years. Since 2000, they've twice reached 6 fWAR from the backstop position. While that is far too high of a goal right now, this year's unit has a shot for a 4 fWAR season - which would be the seventh such season since 2000 by Atlanta's catchers. Not too shabby for a combined $4.5 million in base salary.

The Other Freeman

I still don't know what to think of Sam Freeman. In a way, I like him more now after his ERA has been rising than I did before. And yes, this is a strange time to bring up Freeman after giving up three runs against the Nationals before the break and surrendering a home run by Paul Goldschmidt yesterday to blow a lead. Is Freeman a shutdown reliever? No. But can he be a useful arm? His 57.5% groundball rate, 3.80 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA suggests that he can. The problem is that those numbers might be soft. Throughout his career, he's carried reverse splits in parts of six major league seasons. Against righties, he's been a bit more useful with a .221/.323/.300 slash and a 20% strikeout rate. On the other hand, lefties have handled him with a .261/.377/.390 slash while striking out 24% of the time. This year, he's been effective in a LOOGY role with a .212/.281/.288 slash against lefties and a 30% strikeout rate. It's righties he can't get out (.397 opposing OBP). Is small sample size the reason for this? My gut says yeah, but relievers are a strange breed. Their numbers can fluctuate one way or the other. Until Freeman proves his career rate is more accurate and his left-hand split climbs, you have to relegate him to LOOGY time. However...it might already be doing that. Since June 1, the last 35 lefties he's faced have as many hits as they do strikeouts - ten. His righty split isn't all that good either (.275/.370/.350, 46 batters faced). I hear that A.J. Minter guy is coming along, though...

Snitker: The Non-Manager

One of the most unnerving things about Brian Snitker is how the game manages him, not the other way around. A questionable bullpen that has allowed the third most runs-per-game would likely prompt a manager to make a lot of bullpen moves. That's compounded by a rotation that often struggles to avoid big innings. However, Snitker has gone to the pen 286 times - about the league average. That's not in itself a terrible thing - you don't want to burn out your relievers, after all. But under Snitker, Atlanta really plays up bullpen roles over strategy. Get six innings out of your starter and then follow the flow chart. Are you losing? Go with your young and unproven arms for one-to-two innings a piece. Are you winning? Go to Jose Ramirez in the seventh, Arodys Vizcaino in the eighth, and Jim Johnson in the ninth? Tied and on the road? Jason Motte/Ian Krol in the seventh followed by Ramirez and Vizcaino. Wait until you have the lead for Jim Johnson. You can bet he's lost without Vizcaino and Motte right now. There's little-to-no strategy involved here and the numbers point to that. Atlanta relievers are tied for the third fewest outings with runners on base. That means they often come in with the bases empty - typically to start a frame. They've thrown the second-fewest multiple-inning outings (1.1 ING and above) and are a bit below-the-NL average in outings of fewer than three outs (i.e. specialists). They also have the second-smallest average outs-per-game. Those numbers suggest that Snitker expects his relievers to be one-inning guys in assigned roles. Good managers make decisions based on the needs of the game. Snitker manages like he's still in the minor leagues. Give your starters innings and reach a pitch count. Give your relievers an inning and go to the next. There's little thinking involved and the Braves have suffered as a result.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Teenage Pop

Ronald Acuna posted a .895 OPS at Double-A. That's not just outstanding, but enough to convince the Atlanta Braves to promote him to Triple-A. He's only 19 years-old and that won't change until a week before Christmas. He'll have over 30 games in the International League before the end of the season - should he not get promoted before that. It's rare enough to be in your Age-19 season in the International League and that alone is an accomplishment. Last year's only teenage rookie position player was Acuna's new teammate, Ozzie Albies. But what would happen if Acuna not only stayed in the IL as a teenager but produced at a similar clip as his pre-AAA days? For starters, let's add some context using one of the game's best players - and the MLB.com twitter account's favorite player - Bryce Harper. Over a 21-game run in 2012 as a 19-year-old, the man with the hair hit just .243/.325/.365. It's difficult to find teenagers who received at least a 30-game attempt in the International League, let alone find successful ones. The last one to post an OPS over .800 as a teenager in the International League - brace yourself, friends - was Melvin Upton Jr. Back in 2004, the 19-year-old hit .311/.411/.519. By the way, when our old buddy was doing that, Acuna was seven.

Cuban Imports Raking - When Healthy

The Dominican Summer League Braves have struggled this season with one of the weaker pitching staffs and a just as weak offensive club averaging 4.31 runs per game in a league in which teams average 4.95 per. They are not being helped by the absence of Juan Carlos Negret, who hasn't played since June 30. I am not sure for the reason, but Negret was hitting a robust .306/.451/.528 over 19 games with 11 extra-base hits and eight steals before disappearing. Recent addition and fellow Cuban-born outfielder, Henry Quintero, could help fill the void. Over his first three games, Quintero went 4-for-8 with three doubles and a triple. Unfortunately, he left that third game after being hit by a pitch to lead off the first and hasn't played in the team's last three games. With the DSL offense slumping, it would be big for them to get either one of these Cuban imports back.

Danville's Pitching Staff Holding Up

With most of last year's top picks already in Rome and this year's top two drafted arms in the GCL, the Danville pitching staff could have been in line for a bad season. So far, it's held up to post the second-best ERA in the Appalachian League and its 4.05 ERA is nearly 60-points below the league-average. It hasn't been all good as the shoddy defense has led to 27 unearned runs through 22 games. Still, Danville has looked pretty decent despite the lack of star power. Kyle Muller is the currently ranked prospect with the D-Braves, placing 16th in our recent Midseason Top 50. He's K'd 26 in 23 innings while walking ten over five starts.

Saturday Stats Pack - Freeman, Krol, Ender, Bonifacio

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

203 wRC+

I can probably make an entire article out of the absolutely insane numbers Freddie Freeman is posting, but for today, let's focus on his Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+. This is one of my favorite offensive stats because it combines total offensive performance, park factor, and league factors all in one easy to compare statistic. Freeman is currently one of six players over the 200 wRC+ mark - that is to say, they are 100%+ better than the league average. Since 1960, we have only seen seven 200 wRC+ or better seasons. Barry Bonds did it four consecutive years from '01-'04 while Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas each did it in the strike-shortened 1994. Mark McGwire's 70-homer campaign in 1998 is the only other example of this elite form of accomplishment. No Brave has ever done it. In fact, the closest a Brave ever came was Rogers Hornsby's one season with the Braves back in 1928 (196 wRC+). Hank Aaron holds the top Atlanta-mark with a 191 in 1971. Can Freeman keep up the pace? History is not on his side, but if he was able to do so, it would be a historic season for the Braves.

Going-Going-Gone

Ian Krol was an excellent performer for the Braves last season with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA triple slash. There was plenty of reason to believe he would continue to help anchor a bullpen that supposedly was improved. Instead, he is one of the primary reasons for the pen's struggles. His groundball rate is down nearly 16%. This has led to more flyballs and with his hard-hit rate up nearly 10%, more of those flyballs are traveling a long way. He surrendered four homers last season. This year? Four in 37.1 fewer innings. To put that in another way, 23.5% of his flyballs have turned into goners. That's highly unlikely to continue and if it did, it's impossible to believe he would reach the 50-inning plateau. But if that rate continued over 50 innings, his 23.5% HR/FB rate would rank as tied for the tenth worst since the stat was introduced in 2002. Some of the names ahead of him - Todd Coffey, Yohan Flande, Roman Colon, Sergio Mitre, and Jonny Venters. Yep, Venters had a 24% HR/FB rate in 2012, which is also the last time we saw him in the majors.

Now the Unquestioned Best?

You are forgiven if you think Kevin Kiermaier is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but so far this season, there is little reason to doubt that Ender Inciarte has been on top of the heap. The converted infielder Odubel Herrera is currently the only one who is a worthy challenger to the throne. On the year, Inciarte has a 6.7 UZR. His ARM rating is second to Billy Hamilton. No player has made more out-of-the-zone plays and he's playing even better than he did last year when he won a Gold Glove. Not sure if anyone has ever said this before - let alone put it in song-form - but for right now, Ender Inciarte is simply the best. He truly is better than the rest.

5.7 IP/GS

It's a strange dynamic the Braves have. They rank just outside the top ten in innings-per-start from their rotation and are tied for tenth is quality start percentage. Despite that, no team has given up more runs per game from their starting rotation than the Braves. No team has a worse average game score than the Braves. Here's something that's also funny - no team has bequeathed fewer runners than the Braves. Brian Snitker's managing style to this point has been to let his starters try to work through whatever troubles they have and complete innings. Some of that has to be due to a troublesome bullpen, but there's also a trust-factor related to the veteran staff.

Boni's Value

I know I have been critical of Emilio Bonifacio's continued usage of a roster spot, but he is on at least one leaderboard. Only Martin Maldonado has attempted more sacrifice bunts and nobody has put more bunts down successfully than Bonifacio. He's 4-for-5 and part of the reason the Braves have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in baseball. Not sure if we should celebrate that - especially since they are about average at putting them down - but it's something. I guess.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack

Gwinnett - 25% 

With him back in Gwinnett after a short time in Atlanta, let's look at one of the stranger stats in the system. In 66 PA, Lane Adams has a 25% ground-ball rate. To put that into perspective, much has been made about Yonder Alonso's re-worked swing to get more elevation on the ball. It's working wonders for him and his groundball rate went from 44% to 24.7% overnight. Adams has always been in the low 40's in groundball rate so it's worth a look to see if this continues.

Mississippi - 20% or better

Imagine being a Southern League hitter facing the Mississippi Braves. You know they will bring their vaunted rotation with them, but just how tough have they been on hitters? Each of their starters has carried a 20% or better strikeout rate this season. Kolby Allard has a 20.4% rate, Max Fried checks in at 23.3%, Matt Withrow is next with a 23.4%, Mike Soroka is at 23.9%, and Patrick Weigel is a shade under a quarter of all batters as he K'd 24.8%. Weigel has since been promoted, but don't rejoice Southern League hitters. His replacement, Luiz Gohara, was striking out 26.7% of Florida State League batters.

Florida - Breakthrough Power

It's fair to criticize the Braves taking a chance on Alex Jackson. Not only had he been a failure in the Mariners' system, but he had work ethic concerns. I wasn't critical, though. I spoke of minor improvements in his batted ball rates and plate discipline. Truth be told, I was just reaching for reasons to show my optimism was fact-based. So far, I apparently had reason to believe good things were coming. In 33 games, Jackson has bashed ten homers while hitting .309/.363/.604. He's also posted a .431 wOBA according to Fangraphs. Defensively, he still has some issues to work through - as he should since he's played in the outfield since being drafted and is switching back to catcher - but so far, this trade looks like a good one for the Braves.

Rome - ERA Not Telling the Whole Story

With a 4.03 ERA, it's easy to ignore Joey Wentz when compared to Ian Anderson and Bryse Wilson, each with much more impressive marks. However, Wentz betters both in FIP and xFIP (2.26/3.29). This is due to Wentz's polished performance on the mound. He's walked just 5.7% of opposing batters, nearly 4% less than Wilson and close to 9% less than Anderson. While his strikeout rate is well below Anderson's, it's just a tick below Wilson's and like Anderson, he hasn't surrendered a homerun. No matter how you slice it, for the second consecutive season, the Rome Braves have an uber-exciting pitching staff.

Saturday Stats Pack: Flowers, Stolen Bases, Bullpen, Sims

Unlike last season where I posted two separate entries, I'm going to try to do one Saturday Stats Pack with both major league and minor league notable stats. So, without too much stalling, here is this week's edition.

Tyler Flowers (By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0],
via Wikimedia Commons)

.344 wOBA

Over the last two seasons, only six catchers have stepped into the batter's box at least 350 times and have a better weighted on-base average than Tyler Flowers. They include the current elite of the elite (Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy), the young Willson Contreras, a career-year from Wilson Ramos, the impressive Yasmani Grandal, and a part-time backstop in Evan Gattis. This is a surprise for White Sox fans, who saw Flowers post a wOBA of almost a hundred points lower during nearly 1400 PA playing in the black-and-white. To put it in simple terms, Flowers is simply making better contact. While with the White Sox, 20% of the balls he hit were given a soft-contact classification. There is a correlation between a high Soft% and a lower BABIP. Unsurprisingly, Flowers' BABIP has surged since coming to the Braves as he's lowered his Soft% to 13.4%. Meanwhile, his Hard-Hit rate has climbed 12 points. No catcher since 2016 can match it. Sure, there do remain sample size concerns here, but Flowers is winning over doubters every week that he continues to produce.

82.4%

So far, the Braves are 14-for-17 in stolen bases - a success rate of 82.4%. This would be some kind of franchise record. Only once in franchise history have the Braves reached the 80% threshold. That came in 1941 when the Braves swiped 61-of-76, good for an 80.3% rate. The Braves' best rate since moving to Atlanta came in 2012 when the Michael Bourn-Jason Heyward-Martin Prado outfield helped the Braves steal a shade under 76% of their attempts. Last year, they only stole 69%, which is still nice, I hear.

62.2 Innings

For all of the vitriol the Braves bullpen has received - and sometimes deserves - Brian Snitker has relied on his relievers for the third-fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball. Compared to the Reds, the Braves have needed 35.1 fewer innings from their relievers. To be fair, though...part of that accomplishment is because Atlanta has played, along with a few other teams, the fewest games in baseball - though the Reds have played just two more. Atlanta's starters have thrown 123 innings, good for 23rd.

What Are We, Anyway?

After Roger McDowell was let go, I wondered if it would alter how the Braves tried to pitch. McDowell was a guy who stressed the importance of pitching low and getting grounders. So far, the Braves pitching staff doesn't seem to be doing anything at a rate that suggests any kind of philosophy. Their strikeout rate is fourth worst, their walk rate is 11th worst, and only six teams induce fewer grounders. Their HR/FB rate is in the middle of the pact. However...they do one thing that stands out. 22% of the balls that batters connect on are rated as softly hit. This may be due, in part, because only the Cubs have a worse fastball velocity than the Braves. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if anything substantial comes from a Chuck Hernandez-led pitching staff like the McDowell years.

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

Minor League Stats of Interest...Gwinnett - 2.3 BB/9

There's nothing too exciting about the walk rate above until you bring it into context. Since 2015, Lucas Sims' walks per nine innings have ranged from 5.2 and 5.9. Before that, he kept it around 3.5 BB/9 - which isn't great, but certainly something that can be worked around as a starting prospect. Early on this season, we have seen a possible return to the pre-2015 version of Sims. In 23.2 innings, Sims has walked just six. Sims has always had the stuff and typically carries a low H/9 as a result. Now, he's keeping batters off base, though the BABIP is artificially too low and will climb. The Sims of 2017 is no longer a top prospect. Outfield Fly Rule did a composite list of his rating according to Braves' top prospect lists and he landed #21 - a bit lower than my ranking of #18. However, if he continues to pitch like the top-flight prospect he once was, it's only a matter of time until he gets a shot to show what he has.

Mississippi - 38.4%

Travis Demeritte has routinely seen his prospect status hurt by his strikeout rate. It was 33% last season and 35% the season before. The offensive skills are intriguing, but the strikeouts are an issue. And, to be frank, a strikeout rate of 38.4% is very bad. The thing is...that rate is about 20% higher than Demeritte's, who has only struck out in 18% of his plate appearances this year. Instead, the 38.4% strikeout rate belongs to Connor Lien. The defensively minded outfielder became a bit of a prospect back in 2015 when he slashed .285/.347/.415 at high-A ball with a plethora of big defensive plays, but injuries limited him to just 64 games when he played at Double-A last season. So far this season, he's put a clinic on how not to reclaim your prospect status. Lien has hit four homers and stolen five bases - trends that could end with season stats that look rather solid. But at a near 40% strikeout rate (compared to a near 5% walk rate), he'll be in line for some problematic times.

Florida - 7.20 ERA, but Trending Up

Touki Toussaint is still a raw pitcher facing hitters that are older and more experienced than he is. He's trying to solve high-A ball for the first time and is still over a month away from turning 21. You might look at his 7.20 ERA and say "he's just not ready for the Florida State League." I, on the other hand, look at his K/BB rate and start to get excited. Like Lucas Sims, Toussaint's stuff is off the charts. In fact, his stuff is as good as anyone's in minor league baseball. What talent evaluators have doubts about are his ability to harness and control that stuff. He's been hit hard so far this season, but his 3.8 K/BB rate tells me he might be "getting it" a bit more. Consider that his career rate is 1.75 strikeouts per walk. Don't be discouraged if you see that ERA. Something good might just be happening here.

Rome - Waves Upon Waves

We've heard how John Coppolella and company want to build a farm system that will send prospects to the majors in waves. After last season's Rome pitching staff that included three former first round picks led the team to a league title, the next wave has landed in Rome and the South Atlantic League has turned into their playground. In 22 games, the staff has a 2.28 ERA. Starters Ian Anderson (1.93 ERA), Joey Wentz (2.70), and Bryse Wilson (2.55) were all plucked out of the first-thru-fourth rounds last year and each has been excellent. Relievers Thomas Burrows, Jon Kennedy, and Matt Custred each have ERAs under 1.00. As a staff, Rome has a K/9 of 9.7 per nine and have surrendered just four homers. It's early, but it looks like Rome will be a favorite to repeat in the South Atlantic League.

Saturday Stats Pack - Early Spring Training Observations

During the season, I like to throw out some numbers that have piqued my interest. Spring training stats are not the most reliable numbers to utilize due to sample size and competition, but it's all I got so here you go.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jace Not On Base

While his spot is pretty much set in stone, Jace Peterson has struggled to open this spring. Despite receiving the most plate appearances of any Brave, Peterson has only reached base six times (four singles, two walks) and comes into Saturday's play with a .200 OBP. He has stolen two bases, though, and has looked passable at shortstop - a position he'll likely be counted on to provide depth in 2017.

My Curve Is Better Than Yours

One of the first things I looked up after purchasing Baseball America's 2017 Prospect Handbook was "Best Curveball" in the Braves' farm system, which full of devastating hooks. That honor was given to Max Fried and the former Padres prospect has looked excellent this spring. In four innings, he's surrendered a hit, walked three, and struck out five - many with the curveball I just referenced. While Fried wasn't going to jump from Rome to Atlanta come opening day, his success may help convince the Braves that he's ready to advance to Double-A rather than head to the Florida State League to begin his Age-23 season.

Short Sample Size Basher Part 1

Johan Camargo hit .267/.304/.379 last year with four homeruns while playing in Mississippi. It was actually the first season since the Dominican Summer League in 2012 that his ISO ventured over .100 while the four homeruns matched the total of his previous four seasons. Flash forward to this spring and Camargo has excelled with a .261/.370/.609 slash. It's only 27 at-bats and Camargo seems unlikely to continue his success, but for Camargo, this spring was never about playing his way onto the 2017 opening day roster. It was about putting himself in contention to get a quick call-up if an injury takes down one of Atlanta's middle-infielders. So far, so good.

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Ready to Play

While veterans like John Danks and Blaine Boyer have struggled this spring, one minor league free agent pickup has handled the load pretty well. Eric O'Flaherty has struck out six over 4.2 innings and allowed just three hits and a run. After a rough 2016 that ended with elbow surgery, O'Flaherty re-Braved for a third time this winter with no easy path to making the roster. So far, his sinker has some life on it that was missing last year. He's been mostly utilized for late-inning assignments which limits his exposure to better major league players. If he continues to pitch well, though, he'll likely get bigger challenges as he tries to secure a bullpen spot.

Short Sample Size Basher Part 2

He's been a professional ballplayer since 2004, but Matt Tuiasosopo has made just two opening day rosters (2010 and 2013). Could 2017 be a third? Well, probably not, but Tuiasosopo has gotten off to a good start while taking advantage of the increased playing time in the wake of Freddie Freeman's play in the World Baseball Classic and the Braves losing Christian Walker on waivers. In 24 PA, Tuiasosopo has belted a team-high three homers and his OPS sits at an even 1.000 coming into play on Saturday. Naturally, the question is if that will be enough to put him into the conversation for a spot on the Braves' bench. Tuiasosopo does have legitimate power (68 homers in his last five full-time stints in Triple-A), but his numbers in the bigs are pretty abysmal (32% strikeout rate, .288 wOBA). To be fair, his longest stretch in the majors was 191 PA with the Tigers in 2013, but it still seems a stretch to think Tuiasosopo will be anything more than Gwinnett-bound.

The Constanza Effect

I mentioned this on Twitter several days ago, but I believe there is a thing called The Constanza Effect. Named after Jose Constanza, it's the fear that Braves fans have that a player - who probably shouldn't be on a major league roster - will get lucky at the right time and receive more playing time. This player typically gets labeled gritty and commentators will prop up his intangibles that sabermetrics just cannot measure. This year, the Constanza Effect is in full bloom with Emilio Bonifacio. Formerly a valuable utility player, Bonifacio has been abysmal over his last 125 PA in the majors (-1.3 fWAR). Sure, it's a short sample size, but in four of the last five years (excluding 2014), Bonifacio has been worth -0.2 fWAR. Bonifacio is the guy who you say "Just cause he can play this position, that doesn't mean he should." However, Bonifacio has hit .294/.400/.529 over nine games this spring. Micah Johnson, another primary player in the fight for a bench spot, has also held his own, though Bonifacio looks more natural in the outfield due to experience than Johnson right now. Johnson's status on the 40-man roster could help his case, but Atlanta will find room for Bonifacio if they want to.

Chaz Out

Coming into this spring, I felt Chaz Roe was a bit safer in his effort to keep his bullpen spot than Jose Ramirez. Roe's metrics last season - especially after coming over from the Orioles - were superb. In 20 innings with the Braves, Roe had a 1.75 FIP, 2.75 xFIP, and a 2.52 SIERA. He always had an arm that teams were interested in, but it looked like Roe had finally started to put it together. Not so fast, kids, as Roe has had a rough go-of-it this spring. In just three games, he's recorded six outs and allowed a dozen batters to reach - seven of which scored. He did work a game two days ago and left the outing with no runs allowed, but still loaded the bases with two outs before striking out Pete Kozma. It's still early, but Roe needs to turn the corner soon to avoid the unemployment line.

Feast or Famine

You have seen the best and worst of Adam Walker in limited opportunities this spring. 11 PA, 2 HR, BB, 6 K. But whereas we are getting strange short-sample sizes out of Tuiasosopo and Bonifacio, it's nice to see the predictability of Walker.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Mallex, Flowers, Teheran, Vizzy

Back by no demand is this week's Saturday Stats Pack. Later on this afternoon, expect a minor league version of this series. Just a reminder that when I use Baseball-Reference Play Index, the data goes back to 1913 in many cases.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

A Different 20/20 Club

No one doubts that Mallex Smith is a fast baserunner, but with a 50% stolen base rate in his first 14 attempts, he has been as much of a problem when taking off as he has been an asset. It got me thinking - what is the most stolen base attempts by a player with a 50% success rate? That honor belongs to George Grantham in 1924, who was caught in half of his 42 attempts. Grantham would never again steal more than 14 bases. Perhaps his manager thought "that'll do." Grantham's 50% mark in at least 40 attempts isn't the worst in history, by the way. That distinction belongs to Pat Duncan, who, in 1922, was caught in 28-of-40 attempts for the Reds.

Another Power Outage Note

Currently, 18 players have at least 100 plate appearances in 2016 and have hit zero homeruns. 22%, or four total, have done their lack of damage with the Braves. They include Erick Aybar, Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pierzynski, and Daniel Castro. If he gets 31 more at-bats before homering, Chase d'Arnaud has a chance to make it five. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Tyler Hits It Hard, Not High

If you are looking for bright spots this year for the Braves, you would find one in Tyler Flowers. While he has had to share time with Pierzynski because the Braves hate nice things, Flowers has slashed .253/.360/.347 in 111 PA. If that doesn't seem great to you, it's probably because it really isn't. If it does seem great to you, then you are probably a Braves fan and you realize that a .708 OPS places Flowers among the top hitters on the team. Flowers has also done a great job putting velocity on the ball. No other Brave can match his 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for a spot in the Top 20 in baseball using MLB Statcast. However, with a level swing, Flowers rarely puts a lot of air under the ball. The average launch angle is just 7.1 feet while the average height is 26 feet, marks that are backed up by just a 31.7% flyball rate. But who cares when he has a 20% line-drive rate?

You Had One Job!

Ian Krol's call-up was met with eye-rolling, but so far - so good. Yes, righties are teeing off him, but the one job Krol was supposed to fill this season after being acquired in the Cameron Maybin deal was to get out lefthanders. In a division with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Christian Yelich among others - having a player capable of neutralizing those big boys to some degree is a must. Krol has done that since being called up from Gwinnett. Of the 20 lefties he has faced, only three have reached first base safely (two singles and a HBP). Eight have struck out. Krol might never develop into a true full-inning reliever, but there's always room in a bullpen for a LOOGY.

Teheran's Unusual "Wildness"

Baseball is a quirky game with a collection of stats - some more enlightening than others. One of the least-informative stats might be wild pitches. At a quick glance, it might tell us that the pitcher is prone to wildness, but that's not always the case. Take Julio Teheran, who has thrown a half-dozen wild pitches so far this year. That not only ties him with Pittsburgh's Jon Niese for the most wild pitches in the National League, but Teheran's six wild pitches tie his career record coming into 2016. Not his personal high, but his total of wild pitches in over 600 innings before 2016. Is Teheran struggling with the zone? Not really. His 2.7 BB/9 is right in tune with his career average and his zone rating of 50.3% (PITCHf/x) is as well. But baseball is weird sometimes so instead of a pitch in the dirty getting away from the catcher with nobody on, now there is a runner on and that player advances.

Arodys Time

I am a huge fan of Arodys Vizcaino. Maybe it's because he's the best reliever Atlanta has and nobody else on the team can match his nastiness on the mound. Whatever the reason, I get excited when I see him pitch. Yet, I still am surprised when I look at the MLB Statcast leaderboard and see just where Vizzy's stuff ranks compared to the rest of the league. Nobody throws a harder two-seam fastball than Vizzy's 98.2 mph average velocity heater. It's the third fastest pitch in baseball in terms of average pitch and carries an average spin rate of 2,358 rpm, which compares well to the best pitches in the league. His four-seamer isn't so shabby either (97.3 average mph & 2,418 rpm).

That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Markakis, Teheran, Vizzy

This article used to be a staple of my time at AtlantaBraves.About.com, but with my contract with the company ending - and their sports department being blown up - I'll continue the series here.

Homers < Wins

Over the history of baseball, winning more games than you homer is not a grand accomplishment. After all, before the introduction of smaller ballparks, expansion, and the realization that chicks dig the long ball, homeruns were not celebrated like they are now. Since Babe Ruth changed the face of baseball, less and less teams have been able to win more games than their team's total output of homeruns. Almost none of them also contended for a playoff birth.

When Freddie Freeman hit his sixth homerun last week, it gave the team nine homeruns compared to just eight wins. That's the thinnest of margins and considering 66.67% of the remaining team homeruns have been shipped out with the banishment of Adonis Garcia and release of Drew Stubbs, could the Braves do something that just never happens in the modern game? Could the Braves homer fewer times than they win games?

I can't answer that, but I can say that if they did, they would be the first team in over 20 years to do so. The last team to win more games than they sent dingers flying into the seats was the 1992 Milwaukee Brewers. It was really the perfect storm for the Brew Crew that year to pull this off. Two years before, they had waved goodbye to "swing hard in case you hit it" Rob Deer. Without his steady source of power, Milwaukee needed nice homerun numbers from a pre-Coors Dante Bichette while also requiring their Hall of Fame combo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor to not remember that they were hitting their upper 30's. None of those things happened and in 1992, Milwaukee hit just 82 homeruns, the second worst mark in the American League. Yet, they won 92 games and their 20 September wins had the Brewers just two games behind the Blue Jays with two to go. They would lose their final two games and the Jays would win the AL East, the AL Title, and...you know the rest.

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Nick Markakis' Power Outage

In the first 832 plate appearances of a four-year, $44 million contract, Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis has nearly matched his Baltimore batting average (one point higher as a Brave) and also has maintained a statistically insignificant advantage over his OBP as an Oriole (11 points higher). In many ways, Markakis has shown no let-up when it comes to his offensive game.

Except for power, of course. No one thought Markakis would come to the Braves and hit 20 homers yearly after only doing that twice in his career (2007-08), but the expectation of more dongs was definitely higher than what the Braves have received thus far. In case you weren't aware, Markakis has homered three times as a Brave. While his gain in OBP may not be significant, his loss in slugging certainly is. As an Oriole, his ISO was .145. As a Brave, it's just .082. Now, one could argue the Braves should have seen this coming since his ISO over his final two years with the Orioles was .098, but even that would be an improvement. To bring perspective to his total of homers as a Brave, of the 51 players who have amassed 500 PA since 2000 as a Brave, only one player (Gregor Blanco) homered fewer times than Markakis. Blanco hit just one, by the way. Only one other player has three homeruns like Markakis - Tim Hudson in 250 fewer PA. None-power hitters like Melky Cabrera, Jordan Schafer, and Quilvio Veras look like Barry Bonds compared to Markakis.

He's had long homerun droughts as a Brave. His first homerun didn't come until plate appearance #396. His most recent one isn't quite as stark, but over his last 179 plate appearances dating back to when he led off September 25, 2015's game with a homerun, Markakis has just a dozen extra base hits in that time frame. All are doubles. Markakis has been productive as a Brave (105 wRC+), but it's a stretch to think he's been $44M productive.

Julio Teheran's Durability

With Bud Norris banished to the bullpen and Jhoulys Chacin traded to the Angels, Julio Teheran becomes the rotation's oldest and most experienced starter. Teheran has been amazingly durable as a professional pitcher and that has only continued as a major leaguer. Since the beginning of 2013, only six pitchers have made more starts than Teheran, who has taken the ball 104 times.

This is Teheran's Age-25 year. That's a simple way of saying what his age will be on June 30th of the season. If he picks up 22 more starts this season, he'll reach the 30 start plateau for the fourth consecutive year. Since 1990, only 16 players have done that before they turned 26. Just five reached five years of 30 GS or more by the age of 25. Only one - Felix Hernandez - had a half-dozen years of 30 GS before his 26th birthday.

Arodys Vizcaino's cFIP is Very Impressive

It's difficult for Vizcaino to find work as the Braves' closer. With so few opportunities, he has logged a lot of innings trying to keep a game tied or give the team a good inning to keep them close. He's been dominant when used - which you know if you've watched him pitch. A deep dive into his performance with Baseball Prospectus shows that he's been nearly as effective as the former Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel. So far this year, Vizzy has a cFIP, of FIP in context, of 74. That not only matches (in many less innings) Stephen Strasburg, it's not too far removed from Kimbrel's 71. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, also paints a picture of outstanding performance. When compared to their peers with 100 as league average, Vizzy has a 83 DRA-. Kimbrel's? 82. I definitely recommend further reading into both stats, but suffice it to say, each number tells us that - to this point - Vizzy has been every bit the performer the Braves traded right before the 2015 season starter. Vizzy's doing it for many millions less, by the way.

Slightly low on the number of stats for this week's stat pack, but I hope you found the ones I touched on interesting. Later this afternoon, I'll hopefully have the minor league portion of this series. (edit, here's the link.)