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Sunday, December 18, 2016

Seasons in Time: 1914 (Part 3 of 5)

(In this series, I will recap in a series of posts one season of Braves baseball from Boston-to-Atlanta and everything in between. If you have a particular season you'd like to see reviewed, let me know in the comments.)

Part 1 - Prologue
Part 2 - The Road Trip that Wouldn't End

Part 3 - Finding Their Footing

The Boston Braves entered June 5 as afterthoughts despite the season's relative youth. Of the first 38 games, they had lost 26. They were already 12.5 games behind in the National League standings and had been on a seemingly never-ending road trip for nearly a month.

B. James | By Bain News Service [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
On the bright side, the team had shown some signs of snapping out of it. Eight of their eleven overall victories came in the final two weeks of the road trip. They also finally had their entire starting rotation as Otto Hess and Bill James, who both missed the beginning of the season, were back in the saddle with Lefty Tyler and Dick Rudolph. Further, after a month on the road, Boston's upcoming homestand would last thirty-one games and end on July 6. It was time for Boston to make some noise.

The Braves split a four-game set with the Reds to open the homestand before sweeping the Pirates in four games by a combined score of 23-10. Tyler, James, and Rudolph were each credited with wins during the series. After taking Sunday off, as the NL often did, Boston took three-of-four from the Cubs - including a doubleheader sweep behind Tyler and James. After splitting a four-game series with the Cardinals from June 18-22, Boston had matched their win total before the homestand began (11 wins) in 23 fewer contests.

Things were about to take a turn for the worse, though. A tough six-game series with the Giants featuring two doubleheaders stunned the Braves as they split the series. Philadelphia came into town next for a four-game set over two days - they won all but one against the Braves. Boston was run ragged after playing 10 games in eight days. After a well-deserved day off, a five-game set with Brooklyn loomed that included two doubleheaders with an off day in between. Boston would win just two of the five.

A promising start to the homestand ended with the Braves leaving Boston at 28-40. While the 17-14 homestand gave the team a bit of a lift, they had only climbed out of the NL cellar for one day during the home swing and were now a game-and-half further behind the league lead than when they arrived home in Boston a month before. At the top of the league was the New York Giants, who led the National League by the same amount of games Boston trailed 7th place by - four.

And then...the Braves finally hit rock bottom.

It was bad enough that they were twelve games under .500. All of the loses, both heartbreaking and blowouts, were tough on the players. What happened on July 7, though, was inexcusable. Lose to Christy Mathewson? You can handle that. Future Hall of Famer Rube Marquard rolls past you? These things happen. He's a major league pitcher and a good one.

But lose to the International League Buffalo Bisons in an exhibition game 10-2? That just cannot happen. As the players boarded the train for Chicago, their manager George Stallings lit into them. "You're not even Grade A sandlotters. I'm shamed of you all." The team held a player's only meeting in which young Rabbit Maranville challenged team captain Johnny Evers to play better with a question that had everyone else in the clubhouse asking themselves the same thing - "can you play better ball than you have been playing?"

The answer was the same for each player. They absolutely could and should be playing better.

The next day, they arrived in Chicago and Lefty Tyler pitched all eleven innings in a 7-4 win at the West Side Grounds. They would win two more games to take the four-game set before splitting four games in St. Louis. They would lose just once more to finish the road trip at 12-4. Returning home, the Braves lost 5-4 to the Cubs, but followed with nine straight wins - besting their previous best win streak by three.

The win streak pushed them over .500 for the first time in 1914. It also propelled them into fourth place. They would add two more victories during the homestand before hitting the road on August 13 with a 51-46 record, a grasp of third place, and a six game hole.

Up next was the New York Giants, who continued to pace the National League. They had taken over sole possession of first place on June 2 and as they welcomed the Boston Braves on the 13th of August, they were up by 6.5 games on second place. The Giants were under the tutelage of one of baseball's greatest minds - John McGraw. The previous season, they had won 101 games in rout to a third consecutive NL Title. However, like 1911 and 1912, the Giants had failed in the World Series. A year older, the '14 Giants were still among the elite teams in baseball. Christy Mathewson and Rube Marquard led a pitching staff that, despite the league's best offense, was finally showing signs of wear. Mathewson was 15 years into his magnificent career and two years later, he would be done. Marquard was younger, but struggling in his fourth full season. He would be dealt the next year and later was able to turn his career around in Brooklyn.

A year after leading the NL in ERA, the Giants dropped to sixth. Their offense, led by George Burns, remained excellent. The smart money was on the Giants regardless of how old they were getting, but the team simply could not score enough runs to make up for a surprisingly ineffective pitching staff for its time.

Gowdy | Public Domain via Wikipedia Commons
Over the three game set with the visiting team from Boston, the Giants went with Marquard and Mathewson in the bookend games with Jeff Tesreau taking the ball in the middle outing. The Braves countered with their Big Three - Dick Rudolph, Bill James, and Lefty Tyler. In the opener, the Braves jumped out a 4-0 lead by the sixth inning to roll 5-3. Les Mann had two hits, including his third homerun, while Ted Cather, went 3-for-5 with a pair of doubles. The next day, the Braves again got to the Giants pitching early and often. This time, it was Joe Connolly hitting a homerun. The outfielder would actually finish a triple short of the cycle as the Braves rolled 7-3. The finale was a pitcher's masterpiece. On one side, Tyler was excellent. He tossed ten scoreless innings while yielding just five hits and striking out seven. Mathewson was nearly as good, but after nine shutout innings, the Braves got to him in the tenth. Hank Gowdy tripled in a run and scored on a wild pitch to give Boston the edge they would need to sweep the Giants in New York.

Now just 3.5 games back, the Braves had every reason to believe that fate was on their side. Two days later, they swept the Reds in a doubleheader. After a loss stopped their mini win streak, they would win four of their next six games to end August 25 in a previously unthinkable position - tied for first place.

A week later, as they swept the Phillies in a double header, they took over sole possession of first place. They would hand it back to the Giants a day later, but on September 8, they beat New York 8-3 with James out-pitching Marquard to take over the lead for good. After winning the second game of a double header on September 9, Boston put on the afterburners and lost just five times the rest of the way. On September 30, Boston beat the Giants 7-1 to clinch the NL Title.

There were a lot of heroes who led the way after the humiliating exhibition loss on July 7 to a pennant win less than three months later. Bill James pitched 27 times with 24 starts after that exhibition loss. The team won all but two of those starts with James being credited with 19 wins to go along with a 1.55 ERA over 214.2 innings. Hitters batted just .215 with a .531 OPS during that time. Dick Rudolph was nearly as dominant with a 1.83 ERA over his final 23 games. The team lost just three of those games and hitters managed a measly .488 OPS against Baldy, which was Rudolph's nickname. The team wasn't as good in Lefty Tyler's games, though he had a 1.94 ERA during his final 162.1 innings.

At the plate, first baseman Butch Schmidt slashed .285/.354/.367 after the exhibition loss. Outfielder Joe Connolly, who one of the few stars who hit all season, upped his production for the stretch run with  a .325/.413/.509 slash after the exhibition loss despite being benched often against left-handed pitchers. The double play combo of Johnny Evers and Rabbit Maranville remained steady throughout and the team found solid performances from Red Smith and Ted Cather. Smith had been bought from Brooklyn in mid-August while Cather had been acquired from the Cardinals for pitcher Hub Perdue at the end of June. With the performances from other pitchers in the mix, the Braves didn't need the veteran Perdue all that much anymore. Also acquired in that trade was Possum Whitted, who would OPS .703 over 66 games in a utility role before becoming a fixture of the lineup in the World Series.

In the middle of the miraculous comeback was Hank Gowdy. The 24 year-old former first baseman had spent nearly all of the previous year in the minors just to improve his game behind the plate. While his offensive numbers (.250/.361/.327) may not approach Connolly or Schmidt, Gowdy started 60 of the remaining 88 games and his manager, George Stallings, later referred to Gawdy as his choice for MVP of the 1914 Boston Braves.

With the season clinched, the Braves started to look to the future and a matchup with the Philadelphia Athletics. They would once again have to succeed when the cards were stacked against them as the A's were possibly the best team in baseball that season.

But Boston was kind of getting used to the idea of shocking the world.

Seasons in Time: 1914

Part 1 - Prologue
Part 2 - The Road Trip that Wouldn't End
Part 3 - Finding Their Footing
Part 4 - Unfazed on the Biggest Stage
Part 5 - Epilogue

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Braves Cut 8 Minor Leaguers

They often don't make much news unless it's a particularly significant cut, but teams do release minor league players during the offseason even though they aren't usually forced to do so. Many of the cuts are minor role players who the team deems expendable. Possibly releasing them now rather than at the end of spring camp builds some goodwill with other players as they know the team will give young guys a chance to find a new organization where they might be more valued.

I counted eight releases just looking at transaction pages from last week. There may have been more because publicly available transaction pages aren't always as informative as we would like. Still, there are some interesting players here who were once carried prospect status in the organization.

OF Elias Arias - In 2014, Arias was old for the Dominican Summer League, but garnered some attention by slashing .297/.406/.366 with 8 2B, 2 HR, 21 steals, and a nearly equal BB/K rate. He played center field for that roster, which only helped his value. However, he missed most of 2015 and was not able to stand out while playing in Danville last summer (.641 OPS). Arias is an example of the value of good numbers when you're older than everyone you are facing.

RHP Caleb Beech - A 13th round pick in 2014, Beech was excellent to begin 2015 before injuries ended his season. In 11 games, including ten starts, Beech had a 2.87 ERA and a 2.5 K/BB rate. Now, he only had a 3.44 FIP because he didn't strike out many batters, but the solid start was enough for Beech to be included in Top Prospect lists. I know I included him as the #41st best prospect in the system last January. However, Beech would go on to struggle in Carolina last summer and with so many higher-rated pitchers, the Braves felt the 23 year-old was expendable.

3B Jordan Edgerton - Speaking of guys I included in last year's Top 50, Edgerton was not only a personal favorite of mine, but an early favorite of the front office. Former Fangraphs prospect guru (and current Braves employee) mentioned two years ago that "ATL LOVES the early returns on 9th rounder Jordan Edgerton." Now, he's looking for work. What happened? Well, as we often see, Edgerton's early returns were fleeting. After slashing .275/.347/.385 in 2014, each of those averages came down in 2015 and simply reached a level of putrid last year. The UNC-Pembroke product simply never found it and with third base getting increasingly crowded in the system, Edgerton's time in the system was done.

RHP Tyler Greene - Well, that little story comes to a close. Not to be confused with the infielder Tyler Greene, who spent time in the system in 2013-14, this Tyler Greene signed out of tiny Southwestern Illinois Community College. He had pitched in just 5.1 innings with the Generals at the time, but the 21 year-old joined the Braves and pitched ten times out of the pen for the GCL squad. It was difficult to get a handle on his nearly two-month stay in the organization, but he kind of was lost with so many higher rated pitchers deserving more innings, it appears the Braves were just clearing the way by cutting Greene rather than bring back the now 22 year-old.

C Trey Keegan - Picked in the 14th round out of Bowling Green in 2015, Keegan was coming off Tommy John surgery. In college, he was lauded for his defense and baseball IQ at the plate. Two years with Danville showed a willingness to take walks, but not a lot else. Sadly, Keegan had just announced that he was going to be a dad. Best of luck to him.

C Ruben Perez - Like Arias, Perez looked like an intriguing offensive threat when he played for the 2014 Dominican Summer League squad. He slashed .329/.385/.445 that season while playing mostly catcher and DH. At 18, he didn't carry the same age concerns related to production that Arias did. However, follow-up campaigns in in the Gulf Coast League were miserable (.157/.275/.231) and he wasn't active for the final month-plus last year. There are only so many catcher slots available in this system and if the production isn't there, you won't last long.

RHP Britt Robertshaw - A former product of Tarleton State (go fightin' Texans!), Robertshaw began his career playing for Southern Illinois in the independent Frontier League in 2014. He flashed some mid-90's velocity and some developing secondary pitches. In his short time with the Miners, Robertshaw K'd a batter an inning and kept the ball in the yard. Already 25, the Braves signed him and sent him to Carolina in 2015 to work out of the pen. He struck out a lot of batters, but was often roughed up and by late July, Robertshaw was headed to the DL. He would eventually need surgery (Tommy John?) which ended his 2015 and wiped out his 2016 as well.

C Collin Yelich - The younger brother of the Marlins star, Collin attended Sam Houston State where he showed a knack for handling pitchers. In many ways, his pick mirrored Keegan's selection. In 2015, Yelich didn't hit a lot with the GCL Braves, but did walk 23 times to just 15 K's to help him reach a .369 OBP. That's not too shabby, but an assignment to Danville last year was met with just four hits in 36 PA. He spent the final month back in the Gulf Coast League. Again, there is just not a lot of room for catchers in this system right now and Yelich probably didn't strike Braves management as a guy ready to jump into A-ball.

Any of these guys you wish the Braves were keeping? Let me know in the comments and keep up with the minor league signings and releases by clicking here.

Seasons in Time: 1914 (Part 2 of 5)

(In this series, I will recap in a series of posts one season of Braves baseball from Boston-to-Atlanta and everything in between. If you have a particular season you'd like to see reviewed, let me know in the comments.)

Part 1 - Prologue

Part 2 - The Road Trip that Wouldn't End

You can't have a great comeback without something bad happening first. With that in mind, the 1914 Braves had a horrendous beginning to the season. With just two holdovers from the previous year's starting lineup, the team needed time to come together and that time did not come in April or May.

The season opened with a rain-soaked series in Brooklyn where the Braves only played twice - losing both games. They headed south to Philadelphia where they would drop a third game before finally pulling out a victory with a ninth-inning run to win 4-3. However, they would win just one more time in April. Fortunately, they only logged nine games during the month, but their 2-7 finish already put them in a six game hole behind the Pirates. They had plated just 21 runs - the worst in baseball.

Otto Hess By unknown author [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons
May didn't get off to a much better start. The Giants whipped Dick Crutcher and the Braves 11-2 on the first day of May before Hub Perdue took his third loss against the Phillies the next day. Cutcher and Perdue were part of the supporting cast that was holding things together while Bill James and Otto Hess were out with injury. Braves manager George Stallings attempted to not ride his other two horses, Dick Rudolph and Lefty Tyler, too much which made Crutcher and Perdue even more important early on. Fortunately for Boston, the reinforcements were on their way. The May 2 loss charged to Purdue also saw James make his season debut in relief. He wouldn't stay in relief for long. Hess would be on his way back as well.

After a win on May 4, Boston went into a tale spin. It was the kind of thing that Boston fans had grown used to seeing from the squad. The Braves arrived in New York to battle the Giants - they lost all three, including a 2-0 letdown in which Christy Mathewson out-dueled Tyler. After a one-game set with the Pirates turned into a loss, Boston lost four consecutive in Cincinnati. They were now a miserable 3-16 on the year. All told, they dropped seven straight with one tie included. It would be their longest losing streak of the year.

Odd makers were putting the Braves' prospects of becoming champs as 1,000-to-1 and those odds were only increasing. All of the hope that the Braves had of building on 1913's strong season were evaporating and the road trip from Hell was a long way from ending. The Braves had hit the road on May 7. They would return to Boston nearly a month later. They did salvage something after ending their seven-game slide by going 8-10 over the rest of the trip. It was a modest improvement, but considering that the team won just 4-of-its-first-23 games, the Braves would take any sort of positives as they returned home to Boston on June 5.

On that day, they were 11-26 on the season and 12.5 games back. They were averaging just 2.8 runs per game and hitting .224 with a .283 OBP as a team. Their pitching staff had a good, but not great 3.58 ERA. However, they were finally getting all of their starters back. Otto Hess had returned on May 22 and gave them a competent fourth option. Hess, who was born in Switzerland, only pitched 14 games for the Braves in 1914. The Big Three of Rudolph, Tyler, and James would eventually take over nearly every start down the stretch. Regardless, Hess gained the admiration of his manager, who called him, "our old reliable Otto Hess."

The Braves made a rather interesting, though not well known move in the first two months of the 1914 season. In mid-April, the Boston Braves purchased Clarence Kraft from Brooklyn. Already 27 years-old, Kraft was known for his power in the minors and the Braves hoped he could give their lineup a boost. However, he never seemed to fit into the team Stallings wanted on the field and after three games, he was sent back to Brooklyn. The Superbas (later known as the Dodgers) tried to send Kraft back to the minors and he refused to report and sought the help of the Base Ball Player's Fraternity, one of the first player unions. Because of a new rule that the league adopted to appease players and keep them from jumping to the newly minted Federal League, players were supposed to be offered to all Double-A teams before a parent club tried to demote the player to a lower classified team. By that rule, instead of rejoining Nashville of the Southern Association, Kraft should have gone to Newark of the International League.

Maranville By Chicago Daily News
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
That conflict could have had lasting ramifications as the Fraternity threatened to strike. Had it happened, the 1914 Miracle Braves would have dealt with yet another obstacle. Ultimately, cooler heads prevailed and Charles Ebbets, the owner of Brooklyn, paid off Nashville to drop their claim and Kraft headed to Newark to finish the year. Kraft would play ten more years in the minors, but was never able to make it back to the bigs like he did for a three-game cameo with Boston in 1914.

While the pitching staff was rounding into form as their top pitchers returned, the offense's problems stemmed from poor play out of their best options. Rabbit Maranville was hitting just .193 with a .250 on-base percentage as they returned to Boston. For the first 37 games of the season, he had hit in one the top three spots in the lineup each day. In addition, starting center fielder Les Mann had played in all but one of the games and was slashing a putrid .164/.214/.264. Maranville and Mann were both in their second seasons after playing a key role in getting Boston turned toward the right direction the previous year. Now, both were playing pivotal roles in bringing the Braves down.

With the final four-plus months of the 1914 season looming, the Boston Braves were at a crossroads. How long could they continue to flounder before the season was completely lost? Fortunately, they were about to find their footing in a big way. All they needed was the most embarrassing loss of the 1914 season.

Seasons in Time: 1914

Part 1 - Prologue
Part 2 - The Road Trip that Wouldn't End
Part 3 - Finding Their Footing
Part 4 - Unfazed on the Biggest Stage
Part 5 - Epilogue

Friday, December 16, 2016

Coppy's Q&A Review

Yesterday, Atlanta Braves general manager John Coppolella conducted another of his #AskCoppy Q&A chats over twitter. These small sessions have become something of great anticipation as it provides fans a glimpse - with limited characters - into one of baseball's brightest minds. Here are some of the fascinating exchanges.
Coppy's take: The biggest changes involve the amateur draft and foreign signing rules.  Ultimately we will be as good as our scouts & player development.

My take: I pointed this out recently as I reviewed some of the ways the new CBA will affect the Braves. Coppy couldn't be more right and not only because of the team's recent focus on prospects. While there was some degree of work to re-do things in the CBA like the luxury tax and other appeasements the owners gave to the players in regards to better conditions in the clubhouse and information provided to players, the new CBA focuses the most on how much money amateur talent will receive to play in professional baseball in America.
Coppy's take: Don't do anything stupid.  We have gotten better and held our prospects.  We want to improve gradually not "win" the off-season per se.

My take: This is a very astute view on the current landscape. The Braves have publicly dipped their toes into Chris Sale and Chris Archer market, but refused to swing for the fences on Sale and do not seem inclined to do for Archer. The Braves have succeeded in "improving gradually," as Coppy alludes to. The trio of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, and Jaime Garcia won't be highly talked about in the season previews many publications put out, but the Braves don't need that. In 2016, the goal was to be better than they had been in 2015. 2017 will see a similar goal - be better than the year before.
Coppy's take: Great question.  We got an update late last week that he will be able to resume baseball activities in early January -- ahead of schedule.

My take: "Ozzie" in this case refers to, of course, Ozzie Albies. It's been four months since the middle infield prospect suffered a fractured elbow. While Coppy says that he's ahead of schedule, that must have been a conservative timeline because multiple sources reported early January as a probable jumping off point for baseball activities. Regardless, it's great to see that he's avoided any concerning setbacks. The prevailing wisdom suggests Albies is ticketed for a trip to Gwinnett to begin 2017, but if all goes well, he'll be up in the majors by the summer to give the Braves a long-term double play combo.
Coppy's take: Hate putting labels on anybody as "touchable" or "untouchable" -- will say there are about 20 guys we really want to hold & see what we have

My take: I love this answer. It's refreshingly honest. He essentially is saying guys like Albies, Sean Newcomb, and others can be had, but the Braves would much rather keep them and won't deal them unless it's the right deal. As we saw with the Sale offer, the Braves are still looking for the right deal to really go for broke - and probably won't find it. That's okay, though. As Coppy already said, "don't do anything stupid."
Coppy's take: We added Kade Scivicque late in a trade last year & he tore up Fall Lg.  Also talking w/ Alex Jackson about catching which could be huge!

My take: This was one of the most informative responses during the session. Scivicque did torch the Arizona Fall League after being a late season addition from the Tigers for Erick Aybar. He posted a .412 wOBA in the AFL. Now, that was just 39 PA and his wOBA was about a hundred points lower during the regular season, but he does have some sleeper qualities. Of more interest was the confirmation that the Braves are not ready to give up on Alex Jackson as a catcher prospect. A former sixth overall pick just two drafts ago, Jackson was a top prep star behind the plate before the Mariners moved him from behind the plate. I have not read that it was a defensive choice, but an offensive one. If Jackson's offensive profile, which was elite entering the 2014 draft, played out like the Mariners expected, they didn't want to lose him 1-2 times a week to give him rest and potentially shorten his shelf life as an offensive force. Later in the chat, Coppy mentions more directly that they will try Jackson behind this plate this spring and see how things go.
Coppy's take: No.  Of the 14 teams only 5-6 realistically would even consider trading them -- but yes I have contacted those teams.  I love the draft.

My take: He absolutely does love the draft. In the last two seasons, they acquired the 2015 #41 overall pick from the Padres, the 2015 #75th overall pick from the Diamondbacks, the the 2016 #40 overall from the Marlins via the Hector Olivera trade, and the 2016 #76th overall from the Orioles. Those picks were then used on Austin Riley, A.J. Minter, Joey Wentz, and Brett Cumberland. All four now rank in Atlanta's Top 20 Prospects in the minds of many. Very few GMs have been as aggressive in adding draft choices like Coppelella and even with the changes in draft slot money to discourage tanking, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Braves add another draft pick or two before next June.
Coppy's take: I would say Ronald Acuna, but cat is out of bag there -- maybe Cristian Pache or Bryse Wilson.

My take: Both are great choices. I recently touched on the 2016 Draft and Wilson could be a sneaky good pick out of that draft. He didn't receive a lot of fanfare, but dominated the Gulf Coast League last summer. It would not shock me to see him blitz the Appalachian League before joining Rome next summer. As for Pache, the Braves picked him up in the international signing period of 2015. He expected to be a capable center fielder and the belief was that he would develop some pop to give him a more rounded game. It didn't show last year, but he had zero issues handling both GCL and Appy Legaue pitchers. He's likely headed to Rome to begin next year and, as Coppy said, he'll be one to keep an eye on.
Coppy's take: Rio had a nice year & did a great job of conditioning.  He has a very bright future & will get opportunity along w/ Adonis.

My take: I think the Braves would love nothing more than for Ruiz to come to spring and play his way into a platoon with Garcia. Clay Davenport's metrics do not look kindly on Ruiz's D, though Garcia isn't known for his defense either. Together, the two could combine to be a 2.5 fWAR third baseman and while that's not outstanding, Braves third baseman have combined for just 3.1 fWAR the last three years. The Braves don't seem interested in adding much to this position right now. A different question in the Q&A mentioned Trevor Plouffe as a possibility, though Coppy wasn't too excited about the idea. Can't blame him for that, though. Plouffe's wOBA has fell ten points in each of the last two seasons.
Coppy's take: I've stayed in touch with Kelly throughout the off-season & spoke to him earlier this week.  Terrific talent, better person, can help us.

My take: I have a massive man crush on KJ that goes back to when he was one of the 2005 Baby Braves. Johnson has joined the Braves in each of the last two offseasons only to be dealt to the Mets the next summer. Could Johnson return for a fourth time? It may be difficult to see a spot on the bench for him - especially if the Braves want Ruiz to receive significant playing time at third base. The Braves already have Sean Rodriguez and adding KJ would force Rodriguez to either be the primary backup in center field (with the Braves not keeping a true 4th outfielder) or the primary backup at shortstop. Neither are ideal. That said, KJ could bring the team a bit more depth and open up some trading options.
Coppy's take: Stick to the plan & trust our scouts.  Biggest thing for us is upside.  We aren't going to beat Cubs, Dodgers, etc w/ nice, safe players.

My take: I love this tweet so much I want to marry it. I've spoken many times about the clear difference in drafting between Frank Wren and Coppy. One valued high-floor, depth guys who might have a little extra unearthed via the Braves' development team. The other valued high-ceiling guys who have a higher chance of busting, but also a higher chance of becoming big time performers. "Nice, safe players" like Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham might help your team, but they won't make you a contender.
Coppy's take: Lots of questions about Wieters because he's good -- never say never, but it would have to make sense for him and for us

My take: Read between the lines - we like Wieters, we'd like to sign Wieters, we don't like his price tag and/or amount of years he wants. We're talking about a guy who has played 225 games the last three years to the tune of 3.6 fWAR. His pitch framing wouldn't appear to be a fit for this team, but if there is a way a Wieters-to-ATL connection works...it might be with a one-year deal where Wieters hits free agency again next year. He'll have some competition - mainly Jonathan Lucroy - but I don't think the Braves want to go long-term with him unless he is willing to give them a deal.
Coppy's take: Great name Kyler.  AJ Minter is somebody we speak about often & likely to be a very big part of our 2017 team.  Nasty in a good way.

My take: If you don't know who Minter is just yet, learn it. His selection speaks of something I just went over - the Braves value high upside over safe picks. Selecting Minter in 2015 while knowing they wouldn't see him pitch in a game until 2016 because of Tommy John surgery was the kind of move that forward-thinking teams make. If Minter builds upon his 2016 and is able to stay healthy, he'll be in Atlanta in 2017 as Coppy mentions.
Coppy's take: Good call, Ty.  Touki has as much upside as any pitcher in our system & could be 1-2 type.  One internal comp on him is actually (Chris) Archer.

My take: Here's where I get to point out how ridiculously good Touki Toussaint was over the final couple of months. From June 7 until his final game on September 5, Toussaint had a 2.72 ERA and struck out 104 over 89.1 innings. He's still raw and needs to work on his command, but when it comes to "upside," you'd be hard-pressed to find another pitcher with a higher ceiling in this system and, for that matter, most systems in baseball.
Coppy's take: Thanks Keeley -- all will get a chance to play a lot, often at multi positions.  The versatility will help us w/ potential 8-man pen.

My take: I'm including this tweet because Coppy mentions an 8-man pen. I don't know if they will truly consider this and I really hope that they don't. With a veteran rotation, it would seem like a real waste to carry more pitchers than position players regardless of how flexible the team is position-wise.

There were many tweets I didn't touch here - including several more mentions of Chris Archer, which Tomahawk Take focused on. As a Braves blogger - and Braves fan - we are very fortunate to have a general manager willing to spend time answering questions from fans in such an open forum.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Seasons in Time: 1914 (Part 1 of 5)

(In this series, I will recap in a series of posts one season of Braves baseball from Boston-to-Atlanta and everything in between. If you have a particular season you'd like to see reviewed, let me know in the comments.)
The Sporting News Collection, Public Domain
Prologue - The Seeds of a Title is Planted in 1913

If you are a Braves fan, certain years immediately pop out as big ones. 2005. 1995. 1991. 1974. 1966.

And if you are a fan of Braves franchise history, you start thinking beyond the recent history of the franchise in Atlanta and start thinking of the Milwaukee years - specifically 1957 and 1958 when the Braves split a pair of October Classics with the Mickey Mantle-led Yankees.

The Braves played in Milwaukee from 1953 until 1965. Before that, they can be traced back to 1876 in the city of Boston. They were known as the Bees, the Rustlers, the Doves, the Beaneaters, and the Red Stockings, but the name that stuck the most was the Braves. They adopted it for the first time in 1912 and outside of a five-year run as the Bees in the late 30's, they remained the Boston Braves until their move to the midwest. They lost over 500 more games under the moniker than they won, but also did something in 1914 that is still one of the biggest accomplishments in baseball history - they won it all.

The franchise had won two pennants as the Red Stockings and six as the Beaneaters during a dominant stretch of baseball in the 1880's & 90's, but once the National League and American League joined to give us the first World Series in 1903, the Braves had been shut out. They had finished with 100 loses in six of eight years before 1913 and gave up a mind-boggling 1021 runs in 1911 despite the deadball era, which stifled offenses. The Cardinals gave up the second-most runs that year - 745.

Things started to change for the better in 1913. The Braves named George Stallings as their new manager. He had previously helmed the Phillies, the Tigers, and the New York Highlanders (Yankees) before being unceremoniously relieved from his job after the team's star convinced ownership to fire Stallings. The Highlanders were 19 games over .500 at the time.

After two years managing in the minors, James Gaffney, the owner of Boston, brought in Stallings. "I have never seen any club in the big leagues look quite so bad," Stallings later remarked. Luckily for the Braves, Stallings was about to change the culture in a big way.

He wasn't alone - Boston was finally starting to get some players. 1913 was the first full season of future Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville's career. One of the game's slickest shortstops, Maranville was a web gem generator long before the phrase was coined. Also a rookie on the 1913 squad was center fielder Les Mann. A former three-sport star in high school, Mann had been signed the year before after leaving school early. After one season of minor league ball, Mann, who had been a football captain for Training College the previous fall, jumped to the bigs to solidify center field. He wasn't much of a hitter, but was a lifesaver in center field with his speed.

Stallings used a pair of catchers in 1913, but the team had another backstop in the minors in Hank Gowdy who they were high on. The Braves had acquired him from the Giants in 1911, but he couldn't find the field even after he switched from first base-to-catcher. Stallings liked him, but felt the 23 year-old needed to refine his receiving skills and a year in the minors could do him wonders.

Also new to the Braves in 1913 was corner outfielder Joe Connolly. For much of his professional career, Connolly had been a pitcher, but he was considered too small (5'7") and by 1910, he was suffering arm troubles. He kept his dream alive to play in the majors by moving to the outfield full time and while he was defensively challenged, Connolly was a big-time hitter. Playing for Montreal in the International League, Connolly hit .316 with a .434 slugging percentage in 1912. That season led to Connolly finally getting his break - Washington drafted him. After failing to secure a spot on the Senators' roster, the Braves purchased Connolly just as the 1913 season was beginning. The now-29-year-old became an immediate force for the Braves, hitting .281/.379/.410 for Stallings' first team.

Just two years removed from one of the worst pitching staffs during the deadball era, the Braves were beginning to also put together a competent pitching force on the mound. Lefty Tyler (2.89 FIP), Dick Rudolph (2.62 FIP), and Bill James (3.28 FIP) were all 25-and-under in 1913 with James a fresh-faced 21-year old rookie.

The 1913 Boston Braves finished 69-82 and 31.5 games out. While that's bad, the 69 wins were the most since 1902. They were much younger in 1913 than they had been in the previous two years and went through 46 players to find the right mix of talent heading into 1914.

Evers | George Grantham Bain Collection, Library of Congress
Before that magical season, first came a winter that saw the Braves find a leader. They sold off starting first baseman Hap Myers and in February of 1914, Boston acquired Johnny Evers from the Chicago Cubs. Evers had been immortalized in the Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance poem along with being one of the smartest players of his era. In his final season with the Cubs, the then-31-year-old hit .285/.361/.372 and guided the Cubs to an 88-65 season as a player/manager.

However, because the Cubs had not improved on their third-place finish, Cubs owner Charles W. Murphy removed Evers from the managerial role and initially tried to spin it as Evers resigning from the position. The respected player denied the charge and public opinion, and the other owners, were on Evers' side. The PR disaster continued to blow up as Murphy tried to deal Evers to the Braves for a pair of players and cash, but Evers said he would not report and with the brand new Federal League offering $30K for Evers to jump, the concern was that the National League was about to lose another of its stars. Finally, the rest of the league stepped in and awarded Evers his release. He negotiated a move to Boston which made him the highest-paid player in baseball. Stallings quickly appointed Evers the new team captain.

As 1914 loomed, the Boston Braves were taking shape. They had Rudolph, James, and Tyler in the rotation. They lacked a fourth starter, but made due with a number of options. Gowdy came up from the minors to take over as catcher while Butch Schmidt, who the Braves had purchased from the International League the previous August, became the everyday first baseman. Connolly and Mann brought stability to the outfield while the Braves searched - and failed - to find everyday options at third base and in right field.

Nevertheless, a team that had been effectively built in two years began 1914 with reserved aspirations, but the knowledge that they were on the rise. How quickly would they be contenders?

Turns out - quicker than anyone imagined.

(Next time, I'll look at how the 1914 Boston Braves began the season.)

Seasons in Time: 1914

Part 1 - Prologue
Part 2 - The Road Trip that Wouldn't End
Part 3 - Finding Their Footing
Part 4 - Unfazed on the Biggest Stage
Part 5 - Epilogue

Your Super Early 2017-2018 Free Agency Preview

Let's face it - this winter's free agent class is horrendous. Two of the biggest deals signed so far have went to closers and only one starter has received a contract of over two years in length. The Braves have dipped their toes into the free agency market, but only on short-term veterans that, while they improve the team, are not long-term difference makers.

Could that change next winter? Well, the available players increases dramatically in quality, that's for sure. Let's take a look at the market.

By Thomson20192 [CC BY-SA 2.0] via Flickr
Catcher - Jonathan Lucroy will turn 32 a little more than two months into his next contract. Could that contract be a pact with the Braves? If you weren't aware, Lucroy has quietly become the best catcher in baseball not named Buster Posey. Much of the lack of hype was due to playing for Milwaukee, but now, he's got a chance to play a year for a contending Rangers club before hitting free agency where he'll look for one more big deal. Atlanta has been linked to him in trade rumors before and certainly would be intrigued by the idea of acquiring him next offseason - especially since the punishment for signing a player that receives a qualifying offer is much less severe. However, will the Braves be a little turned off by his age? I imagine if he has a healthy 2016 and doesn't extend his contract with the Rangers, the Braves will be one of his top suitors next winter.

Third Base - Royals third sacker Mike Moustakas had an injury derail him in almost the worst season - having it happen this year would be worse because he hits free agency next winter. Nevertheless, "Moose" enters his final year of arbitration with a chance to earn a big deal even if it's not from the Royals. After a mostly underwhelming four-year run after his callup in 2011, Moustakas slashed .284/.348/.470 in 2015 with 22 HR, a .353 wOBA, and a 122 wRC+. His defense has never graded below average and provided he rebounds from a torn ACL last year, he could solidify third base for the Braves. Granted, many will argue that it won't be needed with Travis Demeritte, Rio Ruiz, and Austin Riley maturing in the minors. Oh, and there's that Kevin Maitan guy. All of that is true, but if Moose is healthy, he's a first-division player at his position rather than a prospect who possesses the skills and potential to become one.

By Terry Foote [CC BY-SA 4.0] via Wikipedia Commons
Outfield - While the Braves would have to make a move to open up a spot, there are some good outfielders on the market next year that might prompt Atlanta to be active. J.D. Martinez has proven over the last three seasons that he's a force at the plate. Defensively, he looked horrid last year according to the metrics, which helped to explain how he went from 9 fWAR the previous two years to just 1.8. That low defensive component might be soft and he could flip it. He doesn't turn 30 until August and posted a .384 wOBA last year. Lorenzo Cain needs a bounceback season, but has been worth 16.3 fWAR over the last four seasons. A center fielder by trade, he would either move to a corner slot or prompt an Ender Inciarte trade. Shockingly, Carlos Gonzalez will only be 32 when his next contract begins. While there are questions regarding his away numbers the last few years - plus a number of injuries - CarGo can be an impact addition to someone's lineup. Might it be Atlanta's?

The Rotation - This year's market was saturated with rotation depth like Jason Hammel and Rich Hill, but not much else. That helped to produce interest in trading for Chris Sale and others. Next year's market won't have the same problem. Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish will garner a lot of attention around the league. Danny Duffy finally settled into a starter role last year and will be under 30 when his next contract begins. Potential bounceback options like Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb could be line for a big payday if they have a solid 2017. The market could also increase if a quartet of pitchers with opt-outs in Wei-Yin Chen, Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, and Masahiro Tanaka test the market. With the new CBA's more forgiving rules regarding signing pitchers who receive a qualifying offer, starting pitchers are poised to receive a number of mega deals next offseason. Could the Braves be one of the teams dishing out a contract?

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0] via Flickr
The Bullpen - Going big in next year's reliever market would go against the recent philosophy of the Braves to build the bullpen with a wealth of cheap power arms. Next year's market isn't great, either. Tyler Clippard has a 4.24 FIP and a 3.22 ERA the last two seasons with 18 homeruns allowed. Something has to break there for the soon-to-be 32 year-old. Steve Cishek flamed out with the Marlins, but had a good year with the Mariners last season. Another solid season will have the 30 year-old ready to cash in on a nice contract. Bryan Shaw was part of the trio of arms the Indians used early-and-often in the playoffs to make up for a questionable starting rotation. That said, his last two seasons were weaker than the two seasons before in FIP, HR/9, and K/BB. Pedro Strop has quietly been a very solid reliever for the Cubs over the last 3+ seasons (2.68 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 11 K/9, 3.2 K/BB). As for lefties, Jake McGee was a superb reliever for the Rays, but last January's trade to the Rockies hurt him considerably. Could be worth a flyer even if he has a bad season as a one-year, shoot-for-the-stars candidate. Tony Watson was homer-prone last year for the first time in his career and his 2014 dominance was short-lived. Still, lefties have a career .266 OBP against him. On the higher end side, Wade Davis might be shut out of a big deal that other closers got this offseason because so few teams will be hunting.

Did I miss a free agent? Well, there's Shohei Otani, but paying for him is going to require robbing Fort Knox and while I'm not saying that's a deal breaker, I'm also saying there's probably about a 55-60% chance of that not happening. Who else would make a good fit? Peruse this link from MLB Trade Rumors and let me know.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Reviewing the 2016 Draft

The 2016 Draft Class was a test of the system. The Braves entered the draft with the third overall selection and six-of-the-first-109 picks, which gave them a considerable sum in bonus money to divvy out. Atlanta took a maximizing approach where they wouldn't break the bank on their first overall pick so that they could increase the quality of subsequent selections. It worked nearly like a charm until they had to forgo signing 16th round pick Josh Anthony because of financial limitations. Still, Anthony was the only player of their first 32 selections that Atlanta didn't sign, so that's a pretty significant collection of talent that was added to the system.

Today, in the first in a series of posts checking on the last few drafts, let's take a look at where the Braves are after half-season with these players.

1.3: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS, Ballston Lake, NY

Say what you will about Anderson compared to Jason Groome, Riley Pint, and A.J. Puk (along with hitters like Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray), but Anderson was no slouch entering the draft. He was a Top 10 talent in a draft where there wasn't a clear elite club. After signing soon after the draft, Anderson made ten starts split between both Rookie League stops. Overall, he displayed tremendous control and struck out nearly a batter an inning. The Braves could be cautious with him entering 2017, but it would not be surprising for him to follow Mike Soroka's path and begin the year in Rome.

1.40: Joey Wentz, LHP, Shawnee Mission East HS, Prairie Village, KS

Similarly to Anderson, Wentz outclassed the Gulf Coast League before a promotion to Danville. It was there that he ran into a few control bugaboos, but rallied to strike out 16 over his final three starts (14.2 ING) with three earned runs allowed and nine walks. He has the early feel of a high strikeout/high flyball rate guy. It's important to remember that Wentz could have been drafted in the 10-15 round range had scouts not been skittish about the lefty suffering from dead arm in high school (along with wanting to see what Wentz could do against better competition). He could join Anderson in Rome to open 2017, but I could see the Braves being slightly more conservative in his time table.

2.44: Kyle Muller, LHP, Dallas Jesuit College Prep, Dallas, TX

Unlike the first two picks, Muller stayed in the Gulf Coast League and the entire GCL screamed, "WHY?" Over 27.2 innings, Muller K'd 38 while allowing one extra base hit (a double). Similar to Wentz, Muller had a Top 15 pedigree had he gone to Texas and succeeded, but the Braves gave him enough moolah to convince him that the best education he could receive right now came with the Braves' pitching instructors. Muller could also be on a trajectory that takes him to Rome to open 2017, but the fact that he stayed in the GCL all year makes me believe the Braves will hold his season debut off until June.

2.76: Brett Cumberland, C, UC-Berkeley

Atlanta's first college and positional player was a catcher with big raw power in Cumberland. While questions exist about Cumberland's defense with some believing before the draft that he was destined for a move to 1B or LF, the upside to such a projection is that those "experts" believed his bat warranted such a move to traditionally high-offense positions. A switch-hitter with discipline at the plate, Cumberland struggled with Appalachian League pitching following his signing. He appeared to wear down, which could be a product of a long season that began in college ball. The Braves could wait on him and hold him off until Danville's season begins, but with Jonathan Morales and Lucas Herbert moving up to Florida, I imagine Cumberland will get a Rome assignment.

3.80: Drew Harrington, LHP, Louisville

The most shocking thing about Harrington was that he didn't make his full season debut in 2016 and stayed at Danville. His numbers didn't pop, but he did strikeout 15 in 14.2 innings. He'll join Rome to open 2017 with a chance to earn a quick moving pathway if he succeeds. The Braves have shown a willingness to push relievers they draft out of college and with a lively fastball and good slider, Harrington has two pitches that could get him to the majors.

4.109: Bryse Wilson, RHP, Orange HS, Hillsborough, NC

First challenge complete for one of the last picks the Braves made that was heavy in projection. Wilson needs to refine his secondary pitches to stay as a starter, but he dominated the Gulf Coast League over 26.2 ING (29 K, 8 BB, 2 ER) so the Braves will gladly wait. Right-handed hitters were especially clueless (.379 OPS over 63 PA). Wilson is likely Danville-bound.

5.139: Jeremy Walker, RHP, Gardner-Webb

Considering a bit of a reach (Baseball America had him ranked in the mid-300s), Walker spent two months as a fixture for Danville. He showed outstanding control (37 K, 8 BB) and looks like a groundball pitcher so far. He opened the year as a piggy-back reliever before moving to starter by August. We'll know more about where Walker next year, but it's worth remembering that the righty signed underslot which helped the Braves ink higher value targets.

6.169: Matt Gonzalez, 2B, Georgia Tech

A breakout campaign as a senior helped Gonzalez move into the Top 200, but questions remained about his bat. After a 51-game campaign with Danville, those questions haven't been answered, but eased to an extent. He did hit .302, but without much pop or walks. He also swiped seven bases while playing mostly second with a little time at third and in left field. Seems primed to hit second in the minors and similar to the thinking with college-age second-sackers like Philip Gosselin and Levi Hyams, the Braves will hope that Gonzalez exceeds expectations.

7.199: J.B. Moss, LF, Texas A&M

The highest pick to make his full season debut was Moss, who played the final month and change with Carolina. Already 23 when he began his career in Danville, Moss quickly used his age advantage to slash .333/.380/.441 over 24 games. He looked notably worse upon joining the Mudcats. Moss had a decent career with the Aggies before being selected and is capable enough to cameo in center field, but is probably better suited for LF. I imagine he could stay at Advanced-A to open 2017, but with Ronald Acuna, Ray-Patrick Didder, and a possible return of Braxton Davidson at Florida when the season gets under way, I wouldn't be shocked to see Moss demoted to begin the spring in Rome.

8.229: Taylor Hyssong, LHP, North Carolina-Wilmington

I didn't have a lot of info on Hyssong before he was drafted. Now, I have only eleven games at Danville and still not a lot else. Hyssong looked decent, but didn't stand out in the Appalachain League while mostly being used a reliever. He did strike out 14 in 17.1 innings, but also walked seven. He'll be one of the many names to watch in 2017 with Rome.

9.259: Tyler Neslony, RF, Texas Tech

Once he finally signed, Neslony headed to Danville for five games in which he reached base in 12-of-21 PA with three doubles and a homer. The Braves quickly promoted the corner outfielder to Rome to finish the year and he held his own at .257/.311/.331. He did show a platoon preference by having a difference of almost 150 points in OPS when he faced righties versus lefties - not common for a left-hand hitter. Like Moss, Neslony was a late bloomer who put a bow on an otherwise underwhelming college career with a big senior season. And like Moss, I expect the logjam of outfielders at Florida will keep Neslong in Rome to begin 2017.

10.289: Marcus Mooney, SS, South Carolina

A heady player with pretty good defense all over the infield, Mooney played in all but five of Danville's regular season games in 2016. He hit just .264, but walked 14 times and was hit by a pitch TWENTY-ONE times. That pushed his OBP into the .356 range. He doesn't have much pop, but seems like a good bet to keep doing enough to progress up the ladder. I would be shocked to see Mooney play in the majors, but he'll make his minor league squads better.

Other picks: Righty Matt Rowland, taken in the 11th round, did not pitch in 2016 due to injury, but his mid-90's velocity could help him open some eyes in 2017....12th and 13th rounders Brandon White and Brandon White (respectably) were not on the same team in 2016, which was sad. The first White dominated at Danville and will likely be the one to watch in 2017...1B Ramon Osuna, picked in the 14th round, showed some power with Danville with four moonshots...Right-hander and 17th round pick Devan Watts looked impressive at Rome (0.92 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 3.8 K/BB)...27th round selection Corbin Clouse, a southpaw, spent the last two months of the season striking out 14 batters per nine innings with Rome. If you are trying to predict the first 2016 selection to reach the majors, Clouse is worth your consideration...Though he struggled in the Gulf Coast League, 28th round pick Nicholas Shumpert was a 7th round pick in 2015 and has some intriguing athleticism...Selected in the 34th round out of Cal Tech, OF Jared James played a month with Rome and hit .302 with 3 HR and 5 steals. Could be a sneaky good pick...Sadly, 33rd round pick, Handsome Monica, did not sign.