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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Carolina Mudcats 2016 Preview

Swanson's a Mudcat in 2016
Rob Carr/Getty Images
Yesterday, I previewed the Rome Braves roster, which is full of prospects throughout. Today's team, the Carolina Mudcats, is not quite as impressive from a prospect standpoint, though the franchise's top prospect will start there. There are some good prospects throughout this team, though.

Staff - Rocket Wheeler (Manager), Jose Mota (Coach), Carlos Mendez (Hitting), Derrick Lewis (Pitching)
-Since 2003, Wheeler has been managing Braves affiliates with his longest tenure coming with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans for five seasons until 2010. He was at the helm of the 2008 squad that won 89 game behind the play of Ernesto Mejia, Tyler Flowers, and Scott Diamond. Now he's back in the Carolina League with the Mudcats. The rest of the coaching staff is unchanged from last season. Mendez played 16 professional years with a 26-game run with the Orioles in 2003 mixed in. After spending his final three years with Richmond, the career .296 minor league hitter retired and joined the organization as a coach in '08. Lewis, a 20th rounder in 1997, pitched as high as AAA with the Braves organization before retiring in 2003 and joining the Braves coaching ranks the year after. Mota was not part of the announced coaching staff, but is on Carolina's roster page. In a career spanning a dozen years, he made it to the majors twice in the 90's.

(L) - Left-handed Pitcher/Hitter
(B) - Switch-Hitter
(#number) - Where player ranked in my preseason Top 50 if applicable

Pitchers - Zach Bird (#16), Ryan Clark (#36), Enderson Franco, Chase Johnson-Mullins (L), Ryan Lawlor (L)
-Bird's placement is a mild surprise after Atlanta gave him three starts in AA after acquiring him in the Hector Olivera/Alex Wood exchange last July. A high-ceiling guy, Bird has great potential, but many question marks that have stunk with him since the Dodgers signed him out of Murrah High School in Jackson, Mississippi. Clark's an aggressive placement after being the Braves' fifth round pick last June. In 52.2 innings with Danville, he showed pinpoint control and kept the ball in the yard (4 K/BB, 2 HR allowed). An UNC-Greensboro alum, Clark could be a depth guy for the major league roster at some point in 2017. Picked up from the Marlins organization (he played with Houston and Tampa Bay before that), Franco is a 23-year old in his seventh year of minor league ball with zero innings above A-ball. Another aggressive placement, Johnson-Mullins was picked eight rounds after Clark. A reliever out of Shelton State Community College in Tuscaloosa, Johnson-Mullins walked too many batters last year, but if the 21 year-old southpaw throws strikes, he could be a good reliever for the Braves. Georgia Bulldog fans remember Lawlor, who the Braves also picked last June in the 8th round. He started 7 of 8 games for Danville last year and had a good strikeout rate of 8.2 per nine. He walked a few too many, but kept the ball in the yard.

Pitchers (cont'd) - Sean McLaughlin, Raimar Navarro (also sometimes Raymar), Wes Parsons, Evan Phillips, Max Povse (#21)
-Lawlor's teammate with Georgia and Danville last year, McLaughlin is one of the few 2015 picks to already have A-ball experience after finishing last year with 17.2 innings with Rome. Struck out nearly 10 batters for every nine innings thrown and had pretty stout control to match (3.4 K/BB). Navarro left Cuba in 2013 and was training with Hector Olivera for a time as he tried to find an MLB deal. Before defecting and signing with the Braves last August, he pitched in the Cuban National Series with Holguin from 2009-2012 mostly as a starter, though he was very very young to be pitching in Cuba's primer league. Now 24, his first game with Carolina will be his first one in the states. Parsons came on the scene with a big 2013 season at Rome after being signed as an undrafted free agent, but stagnated in 2014. He was also hurt and that would continue in 2015, when he pitched just 19.2 total innings including one start in Carolina before his season came to a close. There's a lot to like about Parsons when he's healthy and dealing. With any luck, we'll see some of that this year. A 17th rounder out of UNC-Wilmington last June, Phillips appeared in 12 games with Rome after less than a month with Danville. The righty, who was also drafted by the Royals in 2012, had big strikeout numbers last year (11.2 per nine). Povse started last year with a dozen good starts in Rome before earning a callup to Carolina where everything came off the rails. After less than a month there, it became apparent something was wrong. Povse's season whimpered to a close in late July. The 6'8" behemoth will try to right the ship in 2016.

Pitchers (cont'd) - Zach Quintana, Carlos Salazar, Richie Tate (suspended), Matt Withrow
-Quick question: who did the Braves get in the Kyle Wren trade? If you guessed Zach Quintana, way to follow the format I'm doing here. Quintana was a third rounder by the Brewers in 2012, but had never found success until last year. It wasn't great success, but they got him to throw a lot more strikes and his lowered his walk rate from about 4.5 per nine to 2 per nine. He was a nice swingman for Rome - a role he might serve for Carolina. A 2013 third rounder out of Kerman, California, Salazar is kind of repeating a level after finishing 2015 with ten games in Carolina. The 21 year-old has always shown strikeout potential, but doesn't always know where the ball is going. Richie Tate got suspended for the second consecutive season after testing positive for a "drug of abuse." MLB defines cocaine, opiates, PCP, and cannabis as drugs of abuse and this is Tate's third overall suspension. Tate will miss over half of the year with a 100-game suspension and hasn't built much goodwill with a poor performance on the mound as well. With his brother Chris Withrow in Gwinnett, Matt Withrow joins Clark, Johnson-Mullins, and Lawlor in skipping Rome to begin his first full season in the system with Carolina. He started 13 games for Danville last year with a decent K/BB rate of 2.2.

Catchers - Tanner Murphy (#47), Joseph Odom
-If the Braves didn't have both Lucas Herbert and Jonathan Morales deserving promotions to Rome, Murphy likely would have been given a chance to improve upon his .193/.277/.312 stinker of a year he posted in the South Atlantic League last year. But things being as they are, Murphy will have to re-establish himself in High-A while playing in the Carolina League, which is much harder to hit in than other high-A leagues. The previous year, he showed some good on-base skills and pop (.361 OBP, .147 ISO) to match his great defense. A return to form would be great. Odom has been with the Braves' Carolina League affiliate for two years already. He's a caddy for the starter.

Infielders - Jordan Edgerton (#46), Reed Harper, Joey Meneses, Omar Obregon (B), Dansby Swanson (#1)
-Edgerton carried a little hype heading into 2015, but it eroded with a .245/.290/.317 season in Rome. Like Murphy, if he is to redeem himself, he will have to do it while moving up to high-A. Harper played 82 games with Carolina last year and OPS'd .549, which brought his career OPS down to .608. He can sub all over the infield, though. Meneses memorably OPS'd .850 with Rome in 2014 while hitting for the cycle, but struggled badly in Carolina last year. He can play the outfield, though Carolina is pretty good there. Obregon has a decent glove and speed, but is raw (19 CS in 50 attempts) and has zero power (.039 career ISO). It was a bit of a surprise to see Ozhaino Albies skip Carolina and Dansby Swanson start the year there instead. While the narrative suggested the Braves wanted to keep the duo separate for now to allow them to both play shortstop, with Swanson's competitive college experience and age, it was assumed he would start ahead of Albies. Guess not. Easily one of the most dynamic offensive players not only for Carolina, but in the Carolina League, the excitement for Swanson is huge right now. Fans have been spoiled by the quick ascension of many college players but if Swanson takes more time, that's not a bad thing. Let him develop at his own speed. He's going to be a good one.

Outfielders - Keith Curcio (L, #38), Joseph Daris (L, #40), Braxton Davidson (L, #12), Ryan Gebhardt, Sean Godfrey
-Curcio earned a promotion to Carolina last year after a .343/.416/.479 slash in 32 games with Rome. The results in Carolina were not nearly as exciting, but a .265/.327/.369 triple slash from a player in his first full season - who was also being shifted to second base at times - is acceptable. He played almost all-outfield in winter ball so I assume the 2B experiment was taken out back and shot. Curcio left Daris in Rome and the latter was given the full season to slash .272/.336/.396 - a significant improvement over his first year where he struggled in rookie ball. Daris also nearly pulled off a nerdy feat. Until the final few weeks, he had more triples than doubles, but finished with 13 doubles and 12 triples. He also stole 23 out of 30 bases. Davidson's in-game power started to show more in 2015 than the year before (.132 ISO) but it's still not in line with his projected power output. Love his patience at the plate and I think more power will come. I'm more interested to see if he stays in the outfield or if the Braves eventually move him to first. 2015 was the season of change for Gebhardt. He began the year with AA-Mobile, was demoted to low-A Kane County, promoted to high-A Visalia, demoted back to Kane County, released, signed with Long Island of the independent Atlantic League, purchased by the Braves, assigned to Rome, and then finished the year with three games in Carolina. He saw more states in six months than many of us see in a lifetime. He also found time to pitch a game. Though labelled an outfielder here, he's only played there once so far. Like Bird, Godfrey has to be disappointed with beginning this season back in Carolina. The 22nd rounder out of Ball State opened last year with the Mudcats and hit .304 over 62 games, earning a promotion to Mississippi where he hit like a decent-hitting pitcher (.194/.232/.272). Godfrey was a fun pick in 2014 because he went from drafted to Danville to Rome to Lynchburg within the span of a few months. Now, he's hanging on by a thread to his dreams of being an Atlanta Brave.

Pay to see: Povse, Swanson, Davidson.

Keep an eye on: Bird, Clark, Parson, Murphy, Curcio.

As 2016 begins, Carolina has a little star power with Swanson and Davidson, but not much beyond that. Promotions will change that as the season progresses. If you can catch Carolina play this year, do so early to make sure you get to see Swanson up close. I am going to try to see a few games with the Mudcats and Hillcats in early May for that exact reason.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Rome Braves 2016 Preview

Not only was yesterday opening day for the Atlanta Braves, but minor league rosters for 2016 were finally released.. Let's start with Rome and work our way up the ladder.

Staff - Randy Ingle (Manager), Jose Yepez (Coach), Bobby Moore (Hitting), Dan Meyer (Pitching)
...Ingle is a fixture in Rome and this year marks the tenth consecutive here for him and 25th overall year as a manager in the Braves' system. Yepez is getting his feet wet after retiring following a dozen years in the minors, including the last four with Gwinnett. Moore has been with Ingle for much of the latter's run. As for Meyer, it's back to coaching for the former JMU product who spent last year as the Rehab Coordinator for minor leaguers, especially pitchers. Before that, he was a pitching coach with Danville.

(L) - Left-handed Pitcher/Hitter
(B) - Switch-Hitter
(#number) - Where player ranked in my preseason Top 50 if applicable

Pitchers - Caleb Beech (#41), Trevor Belicek (L), Matthew Custred, Max Fried (L, #8)
-A 13th rounder in 2014, Beech is a slight surprise because he did so well at Rome last year (2.87 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). However, the Braves are likely going slow with him after his season came to a close half-way in. Belicek was a 16th rounder last June out of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. He had a nice debut with Danville and already has four starts at Rome, though he's more filler than prospect at this point. Also a college pick out of the state of Texas, Custred was selected in the 31st round out of Texas Tech last year and dominated the APPY League out of the pen. The Braves are aggressive with their relievers so a strong start with Rome could see Custred move up the ladder. Fried will be babied as he returns from Tommy John surgery that ended his 2014 season after five starts. Keep a close eye on him. When his curve is on, he's going to embarrass a lot of SALLY hitters.

Pitchers (cont'd) - Dalton Geekie, Grayson Jones, Taylor Lewis, Bladimir Matos
-Another 2015 draftee, Geekie played for both rookie teams and logged a game in Rome last year. He finished the season with a 2.89 K/BB in 17 games out of the pen. Picked out of Georgia Highlands College, Geekie is a bit of a hometown guy so he'll likely have his share of fan support this season. Hopefully, that puts him in position for success. Sticking with the 2015 draft, Jones was an 11th rounder who struggled at times with bis control in 32.2 innings with Danville. Lewis was picked two rounds ahead of Jones and the University of Florida alumnae showed good control and not much else in 15 games out of the pen between Danville and Rome. Matos skipped the DSL and pitched in the GCL last year. He's got a lively arm, but will need to spot better to stick around for long. He's already 22.

Pitchers (cont'd) - Ricardo Sanchez (L, #17), Chad Sobotka (#42), Mike Soroka (#19), Touki Toussaint (#6), Patrick Weigel
-A year after being the youngest player when the 2015 year opened for the South Atlantic League, Sanchez gets a return trip to bounce back after a troublesome year that ended in July with injury. He's got the stuff to be a star, but can he control it? Sobotka was drafted in the 4th round of 2014 with 2015 and beyond in mind. The Braves are hopeful the former South Carolina-Upstate pitcher has a better time of it in 2016 after giving up 45 hits and 21 walks in 32 innings with Rome last year. The 28th pick of last year's draft, Soroka is a bit of a surprise since he's just 18 years-old, but he pitched well at both rookie league stops and showed unreal control (1.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/BB). Not many people talk about him with the other well-known prospects of this system, but how he pitches at Rome could change that. Toussaint showed the good, the bad, and the ugly after he was acquired from the D'Backs. Now, he'll try to give the Braves an extended look at the "good." Nobody doubts that he has top flight potential. Weigel was picked in the 7th round last June out of Houston. He didn't look good in Danville last year, but did flash some strikeout ability.

Catchers - Lucas Herbert (#7), Jonathan Morales (#43), Wigberto Nevarez
-Atlanta's top catching prospect is Herbert, who played just three games because of injury last year. The belief is that he has the defense to stay behind the plate and do a good job. Will he hit? His swing has a little too much going on, but it has worked. So far. A 25th rounder last year, Morales is skipping by Danville to join Herbert in Rome. He slashed .304/.377/.511 over 152 PA in the Gulf Coast League. I suspect he'll get plenty of at-bats at DH and maybe first. Nevarez, who really should just have "Wigberto" on his jersey, was a 20th round pick 2014. Hit .177 with Rome last year and played a lot of 1B.

Infielders - Ray-Patrick Didder, Luke Dykstra (#45), Erison Mendez, Austin Riley (#11), Alejandro Salazar, Matt Tellor (B)
-An interesting international signing with some capable defense, Didder does a decent job at getting on base, but doesn't give you much else. Though he's labeled an infielder in Rome's roster, he moved to center field last year. Dykstra had a big 2015 campaign. He lacks his daddy's speed, but did hit .318/.353/.422 over 58 games last year with the final 26 coming with Rome. He'll try to show it wasn't a fluke in 2016. Mendez is a swiss army knife guy who played all four infield positions and center field last year for Rome. He hit just .233/.291/.272, though. Nobody deserves your attention in the lineup more than Riley. Rome hit just 40 homeruns last year. Riley could hit 20 of his own this year. So far, so good for Salazar. The projected starting shortstop has slashed .294/.353/.361 over two years in rookie ball. The 19 year-old is, like Morales, skipping Danville. Teller is already 24 so he's ancient for this roster. Drafted in the 10th round two years ago, Teller has been pretty horrible at the plate so far.

Outfielders - Ronald Acuna (#34), Justin Ellison (L), Stephen Gaylor (L, #44)
-The 2014 international class started with Juan Yepez and was boosted big time by the signings of Isranel Wilson and Acuna, who was incredibly impressive as a 17 year-old playing two different rookie stops while skipping the DSL last year. He on-based .380 with 16 steals in 20 attempts. He also has some extra-base ability (.169 ISO) and seems capable of playing center field. After an uneven debut season, the 2015 12th rounder Ellison will look for consistency in 2016. He showed decent pop last year (.169 ISO) with six steals and a 9% walk rate. He just didn't get enough hits to give his on-base percentage a chance. The former Western Oklahoma State College outfielder could provide a quiet, but impressive, bat in 2016. Probably a disappointment for Gaylor to repeat Rome after slashing .285/.373/.345 last year, though at least he gets to stay home. An undrafted free agent out of Berry College and a graduate of Rome High School, Gaylor has a penchant for getting on base and could swipe 20 or so bases. His high-end projection is a #4th outfielder.

Pay to see: Fried, Sanchez, Soroka, Toussaint, Riley, Acuna.

Keep an eye on: Beech, Custred, Sobokta, Herbert, Morales, Ellison.

The Rome Braves are packed with potential this season and if you are able to see them - even if you're not a Braves fan - you ought to go especially if one of their ballyhooed starters is getting the ball. Offensively, much like the Braves system in general, pickings are slim for impact talent, but guys like Acuna and especially Riley bring major league potential to the ballpark. Rome looks like a team that could content in the SALLY. The Braves often are a little conservative with their Rome players - especially those making their debut at full-season ball - so guys like Soroka, Riley, and Acuna might stick around for awhile.

Next up, I look at the Dansby Swanson-led Carolina Mudcats. Stay tuned for that and thanks for reading.

Sunday, April 3, 2016

Even More Minor League Releases by the Braves

Michael Bourn and Emilio Bonifacio were notably cut from the team today, something I blogged about here. But they weren't alone. Scores of minor leaguers have gotten pink slips over the last few days. Less than a week ago, I profiled many of the Braves farmhands that became free agents after being cut by the Braves. Let's look at some more that are looking for work now after being released by the Braves.

P Dustin Emmons - Not to be confused with the Dustin Emmons that pitched for the Mets organization in 2011, this release is the end of a nice little story. Undrafted, Emmons was signed in 2014 out of the Coastal Plain League, a summer collegiate league. Emmons showed good control and 97 mph heat there and joined Danville for eight games after signing. He appeared in 37 games last year (all but one with Rome), but didn't display the control or have the strikeout numbers that were expected of him. Like I mentioned before, older minor league players (Emmons is 24) are often in sink-or-swim mode during spring training where they have to earn a spot or get released. Emmons wasn't headed back to Rome and didn't pitch well enough to join the Mudcats roster.

P Yean Carlos Gil - Back in the winter of 2014, the Atlanta Braves chose to protect Gil over J.R. Graham. Just over a year later, Gil is a goner. His calling card is that he throws a collection of pitches with downward movement and can throw them for strikes. The rub is that Gil doesn't have much plus side. His arsenal isn't noteworthy and while he has good control and won't surrender many homeruns, he won't get many strikeouts.

P Bryan Morgado - Drafted three times by the Red Sox, White Sox, and finally the Phillies, Morgado has been around for awhile, but hasn't pitched in affiliated baseball since being released before 2013 by the Phils. Over the last three years, he's been a fixture in the independent scene and pitched 72 innings for Lancaster last year with nearly a K an inning. He might head back there and try to keep his dream alive. He's never thrown a pitch above high-A.

P Andy Otero - When he was 17 years-old, Otero looked like a potential big time arm as he dominated the Dominican Summer League (0.84 ERA, 93 K's in 64 innings). Injuries killed his progression and forced a move to the bullpen. He's had good (not beyond nuts) strikeout ratios since then and has a feel for his pitches that he can throw for strikes, but the Braves didn't see anything too spectacular about him. The lefty turns 24 in June and has yet to throw a pitch in AA. Here's my Random Prospect Sunday profile on him.

P Jorge Zavala - No cut surprised me more than Zavala. In 152.1 innings over the last four years, Zavala has a 2.84 ERA. That ERA drops under 2.00 if you look at just 2014-15. It's rare to get released based on that and I'm left to wonder if he came to camp out-of-shape or with decreased velocity. Zavala is a free agent with a career 9.6 K/9 and 2.6 K/BB so he should interest other teams in giving him a look. Like Otero, Zavala was profiled in the Random Prospect Sunday series.

C Bryan De La Rosa - Atlanta has been very patient with their third round selection of the 2012 draft, but De La Rosa's time finally ran out. Expected to have an improving stick to match solid defense, De La Rosa received a signing bonus slightly over $400,000 so began a disappointing four seasons in the minors in which De La Rosa rarely hit. His defense was pretty good and he has a great arm behind the plate, but a career .195/.268/.272 slash over four years did him in even with Atlanta's catching issues.

C Chris O'Dowd - Acquired with Jose Briceno in last year's David Hale trade, O'Dowd was very much in a similar position as Kyle Wren. With his father no longer the general manager of the Rockies, the team shopped him and eventually found a taker. He was actually doing pretty well for Mississippi last year with a .304/.429/.468 triple slash before a PED suspension ended his season in late May. He has a fun set of skills for a catcher because he has speed, but only OPS'd .711 over four seasons in which he also played for the Padres' system.

2B Eric Garcia - A defense-first substitution player who was drafted in the 20th round of the 2012 draft, Garcia filled in where asked, but never showed much of a stick nor any other tools worth mentioning. Last year in 92 games with Mississippi, he hit a Rafael Belliard-worthy .200/.268/.276.

OF K.D. Kang - Originally born in South Korea, Kang was a graduate of Parkview High School in Georgia and attended community college in Alabama. After seven seasons in the Rays' organization in which he never advanced beyond Double-A, Kang signed with the Orioles for 2014 and with the Braves the winter before last. He didn't do much at the plate last year for Mississippi, but was resigned for 2016 and even logged four plate appearances for the big league club this spring. Now 28 years-old, you have to wonder if Kang doesn't consider a run in the KBO, where offense is inflated.

OF David Rohm - Formerly a ninth round pick in 2010 out of Fresno State, Rohm has been a slow climber for the Braves. He's rarely been complete failure at the plate, but has little pop to speak of and nearly non-existent speed. With a career .324 OBP, Rohm was on the bubble this spring and didn't play his way onto a roster.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Recent Minor League Releases

The Braves have made a number of releases, but only Nick Swisher drew much coverage yesterday. Here's some other cuts the Braves have made recently. These cuts have either been taken from the league transaction pages at the official sites for each minor league or a tweet shared by Bill Shanks today.

Coke - Bruce Hemmelgarn/Getty
P Phil Coke - A mid-spring signing, Coke's career with the Braves was over before any of his ultra-successful jerseys could be put up for sale. A LOOGY who wasn't a great LOOGY to begin with, Coke is the kind of guy teams like the Braves get desperate for and hope he builds some trade value. Apparently, they had second thoughts.

P Dakota Dill - The Sul Ross State University alum (which we all know is in Texas) was a 26th rounder in 2013. He missed 2014 with injury and just never impressed enough out of the bullpen despite pretty good strikeout numbers (9.3 K/9). Like many on this list, he was probably a bubble player entering spring who wasn't good enough to move up the chain, but too old to keep around.

P Sean Furney - The Braves acquired Furney at the end of spring training last year for cash considerations with the Diamondbacks, but unlike many trades Atlanta has completed with Dave Stewart, this one won't be very notable. Furney spent 2015 with Rome and Carolina and the 24 year-old was just okay. A former undrafted free agent, Furney doesn't have the control needed to strikeout so few (5 K/9 last year).

Holmberg - Rob Carr/Getty Images
P David Holmberg - A minor league free agent who appeared in two games this spring, Holmberg has been woeful in the majors over the last three years. Yes, it's only 62 innings over 14 games, but a 7.92 FIP is impressive only because of the level of ineptitude it requires. Holmberg was a "let's see" guy who didn't pan out.

P Ben Libuda - First 2015 pick from this list. Drafted in the 26th round last June out of Worcester State College, Libuda appeared in 16 games with both rookie-league teams last year as a reliever. The results were pretty ugly (nearly a WHIP of 2.00) and the Braves didn't see enough this spring to keep around the nearly 23 year-old.

P Ethan Martin - For Martin, it was a chance to come home (he was born in Athens, GA). However, it never materialized into regular season games. Formerly the #59 prospect in Baseball Prospectus's 2009 Top 100, Martin was a lot of potential, but next to zero positive results. The former 15th overall pick has a career minor league ERA of 4.48 and a shift to the bullpen in 2014 only helped him moderately. He has logged 44 innings in the majors between 2013-14, but surrendered ten homeruns for the Phillies during his run.

P Monte Reese - An undrafted free agent from Thomas University in Georgia, Reese appeared in only two games in the Gulf Coast League last summer. Already 24, the Braves probably felt he didn't fit into their Danville Braves plans.

P Ian Stiffler - The second pick on this list from the 2013 draft. Selected in the seventh round, Stiffler has been a big disappointment for Atlanta so far. He's only pitched 24 times over three years and had not made his Low-A debut yet. This spring was likely a sink-or-swim moment for Stiffler and he certainly didn't swim. He takes his career 6.38 ERA with more walks than strikeouts into the land of free agency.

P Blair Walters - Formerly of the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros organizations, Walters joined the Braves in 2014 after starting the year in the independent Frontier League. A solid starter for both Lynchburg in '14 and Carolina in '15 (2.33 and 3.13 ERAs), Walters was a placeholder who made his minor league team better by being a consistent arm, but was not considered a prospect.

C Alejandro Flores - A filler player at the end of the bench, Flores has made stops in the DSL, GCL, and Appy Leagues over the last three years with a .210/.294/.305 slash to show for it. Like many on this list, the Braves may have felt Flores would either have to make the Rome Braves roster or get cut. Obviously, the latter happened.

1B Jeff Campbell - Like Reese, Campbell was an undrafted free agent who signed with the Braves last summer. A 1B/DH, Campbell hit .277/.303/.372 over 26 games (plus an inning as a pitcher). He'll turn 24 the day after Independence Day and the Rome Braves roster is a tough one to make.

1B Tanner Krietemeier - Drafted out of Oklahoma State in the 23rd round of the 2014 draft, Krietemeier hit one homerun in 409 plate appearances over the last two years. That's just not what you want to see from a first baseman.

1B Jordan Lennerton - Atlanta picked up Lannerton last year out of the Tigers organization. He posted some decent years there, though he was often old for his level when he was successful. 30 years-old, Lannerton was a bubble guy this spring after watching the players the Braves added on minor league deals for Gwinnett.

3B Jake Lanning - Atlanta's 24th round selection last June, Lanning split time between second base and third base last summer with Danville and actually wasn't terrible (.273/.345/.341). The Holy Cross College alum is an example of how little time late-round college guys are given to perform. Already too old to stick around in rookie leagues, they have to get their career jump-started or risk a release. Apparently, the Braves saw all they needed out of Lanning.

3B Dylan Manwaring - With good size and a baseball pedigree, Manwaring was a ninth round pick in 2013. The son of former Giants catcher Kirt Manwaring, Tony DeMacio told Eric Single of MLB.com that the younger Manwaring "can hit...he's got power." Over three years in rookie ball, Manwaring would hit .157/.270/.207 with 105 strikeouts in 330 PA. His power led to one homerun. Another swing-and-a-miss for the high floor, low ceiling DeMacio years.

OF Jose Morel - Formerly a good international signing for the Braves, Morel played in just eight games above rookie ball in five years. He did hit well for Danville last year, but even a .313/.372/.390 slash is pretty empty when it includes one homerun and three steals in 54 games during your FIFTH year in rookie ball. Morel failed to make the Rome roster and the Braves cut bait.

It's unlikely Atlanta is finished with their cuts so I might do a follow-up to this column when the minor league rosters are announced in about a week or so.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Eric O'Flaherty: Not the Same Guy We Remember

For a run-down on the previous week, including this pick-up, the Tyler Moore trade, Justin Upton news, Mike Foltynewicz, and more, read my column from today at atlantabraves.about.com.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
Many people applauded the Braves re-acquiring lefty Eric O'Flaherty on Sunday, but is there much to praise beyond just having a familiar face around? Can O'Flaherty resemble the pitcher who was so good for the Braves from 2009 until injury ended his 2013 season prematurely or are the Braves wasting their time on a flier who has lost the skillset that made him valuable?

When O'Flaherty came to the Braves via a waiver claim after the 2008 season, he was a fastball/slider pitcher who mixed in the occasional curve or changeup. Atlanta quickly cut into his fastball usage by getting him to utilize a sinker and by 2011, it was his most-used pitch. He liked it so much  that he began throwing it so often that he used it half of the time or more by 2012. And it was a quality pitch.

He still threw his slider at a similar rate to his M's days (25-27%) and simply stopped throwing his four-seam fastball as much. He also scrapped the curveball and nearly did the same with the changeup, leaving him almost entirely as a three-pitch pitcher, but a sinkerballer for the most part.

The tangible results were excellent. His groundball rate climbed north of 55% with a spike of 66% in 2012. While not a strikeout pitcher, he was getting into the 7 per nine range. Sabermetrics were often not thoroughly impressed with him because his K and BB metrics were never golden, but considering he was maintaining his success despite good (but not great) FIPs, it became a situation where we took into account the pitcher O'Flaherty was rather than who he compared to.

His injury in 2013 led to Tommy John surgery and a trip to free agency, where he signed with the Oakland A's. Has he been a different pitcher? Oh, yeah.

Ignore the high ERA for a second. He's lost a tick in velocity (from about 92-93 mph to 91-92 mph) on his fourseamer and his slider has lost about 2 mph. Not significant losses. The lost downward movement on his fourseamer and sinker is concerning, though. His slider has also began to come in on a plain and stay there rather than drop 1.5-2 inches. I'm not seeing a significant change in release point so it might be downgraded stuff and/or feel. O'Flaherty has never really relied on stuff - especially against lefthanded batters. His biggest weapon was deception. He hid the ball well against lefties which gave the impression that the ball was jumping out of his hand. As he progressed, his sinker helped neutralize right-handed batters to allow O'Flaherty to shake the LOOGY label. With its effectiveness limited, O'Flaherty is again vulnerable to right-handed batters. Here is a graph showing vertical movement. His changeup has dropped off the map, which isn't advantageous because hitters generally will allow it to float out of the zone because of decreased velocity.



Diving in deeper - starting in 2012, O'Flaherty was getting the ball in the zone with increased infrequency. During his first three years with the Braves, he kept the ball in the zone about 50% of the time according to PITCHf/x. Even though he had a great season in 2012 (3.27 FIP, 3.31 xFIP), his Zone% fell to about 42%. This also coincided with increased usage of his sinker and the two go hand-in-hand. He also had the movement to get outside-the-zone swings and hitters were swinging at what could be considered balls 35% of the time. Subsequently, they were making a bit less contact. If you are going to live outside-the-zone, you must entice batters to swing at those pitches. O'Flaherty was able to do that in 2012, but not so much in 2014 and especially last year. Further, because his sinkers and sliders were losing downward movement, they often became fodder for hitters to pummel in-the-zone. Last year, he saw the highest amount of in-the-zone pitches swung at of his career. Unsurprisingly, he also saw the greatest amount of in-the-zone contact. Hitters simply were not missing.

They also weren't hitting dinky pop-ups. Last year, O'Flaherty gave up a 22.6% line drive rate. That's 4% over his career rate and the highest of any full season of his career. In the above graph, flyball rates are blue, ground-ball rates are green, and line-drive rates are red. Line-drives are bad for pitchers because nearly 70% of them become hits. Increased line-drives means more baserunners. More baserunners means worse pitching. Worse pitching means we lose. In the following graph, pay special attention at how many line drives O'Flaherty saw off his most-used pitches.



Chances are that O'Flaherty won't be dinged with a .388 BABIP again (his career norm is .292) and there is reason to suspect he should be better against left-handed batters than he was in 2015 (.274/.358/.319). Plus, as I wrote before, I like Alex Torres, but not in the LOOGY role that he likely would have performed as if he was the sole lefty in the pen. Of course, Torres might not even make the roster, but if you are going to have a guy like Torres, you need a lefty specialist and O'Flaherty might be that guy. (ed. Torres was reassigned shortly after this post) But it's important to realize that the O'Flaherty that worked so well with Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters is probably not the guy the Braves acquired on Easter. There is nothing to suggest that the O'Flaherty who had a sub-1.00 ERA will be rejoining the Braves.

Is this move more nostalgia or really filling a need? Probably the former, but Roger McDowell has done more with less before.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Random Former Prospect Sunday - Matt Harrison

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.


Elsa/Getty Images
Not only have we reached the end of this series, it concludes perfectly with one of the four uber-prospects the Texas Rangers acquired in exchange for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay. You have to wonder if Mahay ever gets upset that nobody mentions that the Braves got him as well. It's always the Teix deal, not the Teix/Mahay deal. Poor guy.

The 2003 draft was eventful for the Braves. They didn't pick until 35th overall and selected Luis Atilano and Jarrod Saltalamacchia back-to-back. They also selected Jo-Jo Reyes, Jamie Romak, Brandon Jones, and in the 30th round, they grabbed Jonny Venters out of Lake Brantley High School (Florida). Venters has had the second best bWAR from that draft for the Braves. The top bWAR came from the guy the Braves picked 900 picks earlier - Harrison. He was Atlanta's sixth pick in the Top 100.

Before Atlanta selected him, Harrison was a lefty out of South Granville High School (go Vikings!). The school had only produced one major leaguer - the generically named Jeff Johnson, who pitched parts of three seasons with the Yankees with a 6.52 ERA. Harrison had a scholarship offer to attend North Carolina State, but gave it up to ink a contract with the Atlanta Braves. Just 17 years-old, Harrison headed to the Gulf Coast League for his first taste of professional ball. He showed a solid ability to throw strikes, which is sometimes difficult for teenage pitchers, and after two years at rookie ball, Harrison headed to Rome to begin 2005. It was a nice season from the tall lefty as he finished with a 3.23 ERA over 167 innings. He maintained a 3.9 K/BB rate and while the homerun rate wasn't excellent, it was still a solid year.

It did not, however, get him in the Top 100 prospects. The next season would change that. Splitting the season between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, Harrison finished with a 3.35 ERA and pretty similar rates overall. While certainly not an ace, he was a productive prospect with a chance to contribute as a left-handed starter - something that often comes with a high degree of value. Baseball America ranked him as the #90th best prospect in baseball while Baseball Prospectus was even higher on him, placing him #79th.

2007 looked like it might be the year for Harrison, who had already logged a dozen starts in Double-A. However, something was a little off. His K/BB rate, which had never been under 3.45, was sitting at 2.29 by late July. He had always given up his share of hits, but Harrison's calling card was his ability to not hurt himself with walks. Now, compared to many of his peers, a 2.6 BB/9 is hardly a bad thing, but it was a half-a-walk higher than any other season. What the Braves, and the league, didn't know is that Harrison was hurt. Shortly before the end of July, he was placed on the disabled list.

That threw a wrench into a negotiation currently under way. John Schuerholz was desperate to avoid a second consecutive year out of the playoffs after 14 straight division titles. Despite clear issues in the rotation, Schuerholz zeroed in on the possibility of out-slugging everyone with the young and powerful Teixeira. The Rangers saw a chance to maximize Teix's value before he hit free agency after the 2008 season. They wanted Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz - a dynamic package with three Top 100 talents. They also wanted Harrison, but his injury concerned them. To smooth things over, the Braves added lefty Beau Jones, who they had taken with the 41st pick of the 2005 draft. Jones was an interesting arm, but the Braves saw him as a bullpen prospect so they weren't very attached. The Rangers agreed to the five-prospect package and Harrison headed to Texas. He would be shut down for the remainder of the minor league season, but did made seven starts in the Arizona Fall League.

It didn't take long for Harrison to get to the majors after that. He made 15 starts with the Rangers in the summer of '08, but it wasn't until 2011 that he established himself. He made a full 30 start season for the Rangers, brought his walks down, and did a better job at keeping the ball in the yard. The results was a 185.2 ING campaign in which he had a 3.39 ERA and 3.52 FIP. He even made a start in Turner Field on June 18. He was in line for the win until Darren Oliver blew it. Texas scored off Scott Proctor in the ninth because using Scott Proctor in a tied extra inning game only works when Jerry Meals is behind the plate. Felix came in and got the save with K's of Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward.

Harrison was even better the next year. He lowered his ERA to 3.29, picked up his first 200-inning season, was an All-Star, and even picked up a Cy Young vote or two. Knowing they had a potential workhorse on their hands, the Rangers gave Harrison a $55M extension to buy out his final two years of arbitration and first three years of free agency. He would be team-controlled through at least his Age-31 season with an option for 2018.

But...that didn't work out so well. In the three years that have transpired since signing the extension, Harrison has made just 9 starts. His back injuries led him to eventually succumb to lumbar spinal disc fusion surgery in June of 2014. He - well, his contract - was also traded to the Phillies last July in the big Cole Hamels trade.

As 2016 is just around the corner, things have not change for Harrison. His back remains an issue and the Phillies don't expect him to contribute "anytime soon, if at all." It's unfortunate news for the lefty has been stuck in a bystander role just after reaching the heights of his career. Will he ever throw another meaningful pitch? That remains to be seen. You have to hope he does because never pitching again because of a back injury is a tough way to go out. Still, it's not looking good for the first pitcher of the Teix trade to get to the majors.

And that concludes the Former Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects as a Brave who Never Actually Played in Atlanta. Oh, that explains why I shortened the title. To go back through the list, you can either click any of the links below or just click here to run through them in reverse chronological order.

Previous Random Former Prospects...
Brett Evert
Rob Bell
Jose Peraza
Tom Redington
Dennis Burlingame
J.R. Graham
Elvis Andrus
Bobby Smith
Bubba Nelson
Neftali Feliz
Gorkys Hernandez
Matt Belisle
Matt McClendon

Saturday, March 19, 2016

TOT: Braves Sign Vinny Castilla for the First Time

Transaction of Today...March 19, 1990 - The Atlanta Braves purchased Vinny Castilla from Saltillo (Mexican).

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Don Baylor once said that he would not trade Vinny Castilla for Chipper Jones. Now...that's probably a bunch of crap, but there was a time when Castilla - almost overnight - became a star. Of course, that was back when Coors Field made stars of guys who didn't hit much elsewhere like Dante Bichette, Quinton McCracken, and Neifi Perez. Still, it had to be shocking for the Braves to see Castilla magically transform into the type of hitter who would go on to belt 320 major league homeruns.

When Castilla signed with the Braves today 26 years ago, he was seen as an aggressive hitter with decent pop for a shortstop, but a hit tool that was likely going to limit his effectiveness to be much more than a utility player. He had spent a couple of years in the Mexican League before 1990 and the Braves paid $20,000 to sign Castilla (with almost all of it going to his team). After signing with Atlanta, he split the season between Sumter (low-A) and Greenville (AA), slashing just .257/.322/.385. He played a lot of shortstop, which seems hard to imagine for those of us who know him almost entirely as a third baseman. Castilla would split most of 1991 between Greenville and Triple-A Richmond, in which he OPS'd just .692. He finished the year as a bench player for the '91 Braves, appearing in 12 games - mostly as a defensive replacement at shortstop or third base. The following year, 1992, Castilla OPS'd just .655 with the R-Braves and was hardly noticeable during a nine-game cameo in the majors.

Twenty-five years old, Castilla was a possibility for the 1993 bench after the Braves released Jeff Treadway. However, the future All-Star's time with the Braves ended on December 17, 1992 when the Rockies took Castilla with the 40th pick of the expansion draft. He joined David Nied and Armando Reynoso as Braves farmhands that the Rockies grabbed in the expansion draft. Clint Hurdle, who would later become Castilla's hitting coach and manager in Colorado, was managing the Mets' AAA team in Tidewater when Castilla reached AAA and felt the skinny infielder was "nothing special" and "might make it as a utility player." But he, like so many others, were wrong.

Castilla was a regular fixture of the inaugural Rockies team. He platooned at short, played in 105 games, and belted nine homers. He also on-based just .283. He only played in 52 games during the strike-shortened 1994, plus 22 in the minors, though he hinted at big things to come with a .331/.357/.500 slash.

In 1995, the Rockies let Charlie Hayes go after the veteran handled the hot corner for the first two years of the franchise's existence. Castilla would claim the position and never look back. An All-Star in '95, Castilla also won a Silver Slugger while slashing .309/.347/.564. He quickly became part of what was a tremendous collection of offensive stars with Andres Galarraga, Larry Walker, Ellis Burks, and Bichette. The Rockies were a surprise contender and took home the NL West title with a first-round matchup with the Braves on the docket. It was a chance for Castilla to put a hurting on the team that left him unprotected in the 1993 expansion draft. While the Rockies would ultimately lose in four games, you couldn't blame Castilla as he had seven hits, including a double and three homeruns (two off Greg Maddux).

Over the next three seasons, he hit 40 or more homeruns each year - one of just four third baseman to accomplish that feat and of those other three, only Eddie Matthews did it in three consecutive seasons like Castilla.

1998 was his finest season. He finished 11th in the MVP race, won his third and final Silver Slugger, and reached some big traditional benchmarks (108 RS, 206 H, 46 HR, 144 RBI) along with some some nice sabermetric accomplishments (.401 wOBA, 121 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR). He was on top of the world, but the Rockies nucleus was both aging and expensive - plus they hadn't won much with them. Galarraga signed with Atlanta in '98 and after a woeful fifth-place finish in 1999, the Rockies let Bichette leave via free agency and traded Castilla.

Joining another expansion team, Castilla became the starting third baseman for the third edition of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. It went awful. With the thin air of Denver no longer boosting his flyballs, Castilla struggled to a .221/.254/.308 slash while missing significant time. His struggles continued into 2001 until the Rays released the third baseman a month into the season. The Astros, who were using the woeful Chris Truby at third base, went for the upgrade and signed Castilla for the rest of the year. Moving back to both the NL and a park that helped hitters like "Enron Park" (as it was known) re-established Castilla as a solid major league player. He slashed .270/.320/.492 after his mid-May signing and helped to deliver a playoff birth for the Astros. Six years after facing the Braves in the 1995 NLDS, Castilla got a second shot to down the Braves in '01. Castilla homered in Game One off Braves closer John Smoltz and had three hits overall in the series, but the Rockies were outscored 14-6 over the three games.

After 2001, Castilla figured that if you can't beat them, join them. Or in Castilla's case, re-join them. In an effort to help Chipper Jones keep fresher legs, the Braves moved their All-Star third baseman to left field and added Castilla. The TBS announcers were always quick to point out that Castilla provided a defensive boost at third base, though his defense was never great and by his mid-30's, it was more accurate to say Castilla made the plays he could get to. That's good and all, but he simply didn't have much range. In '02, he also didn't have a bat. Quick, name the worst OBP by an Atlanta Brave (min 500 PA). You might remember that it's Andres Thomas, who did the impossible and on-based .228 in 1989. Second place on this list of futility? Vinny Castilla, who on-based just .268 in 2002. He did pick up seven hits, including his fifth postseason homerun, in Atlanta's NLDS loss to the Giants.

In 2003, Castilla's numbers improved (though still far-removed from his Rockies days) and after the Braves lost the NLDS to the Cubs, Castilla was allowed to leave Atlanta for a second time. The Braves went with Mark DeRosa and after that failed miserably, Atlanta moved Chipper back to third. Meanwhile, Castilla returned to the Mile High City and had a bit of a resurgence. He hit 35 homeruns (one more than he hit with the Braves) and led the National League in RBIs (if that means anything to you). He also picked up his only 40-double season. Still, his return to Colorado was brief as the Nationals signed Castilla ahead of 2005. While the Nats weren't an expansion team, they were playing in Washington for the first time. Castilla held down the position for Ryan Zimmerman, who had just been drafted. His numbers fell more in line with his Braves experience than the Rockies numbers he had posted the previous year. In 2006, Castilla spent time with the Padres and - for a third time - Colorado, but struggled as an 38 year-old. It would be his final year in the majors.

Castilla would return home and had a run as a player/manager for Hermosillo. He also managed Team Mexico in the 2007 PanAm Games and the 2009 World Baseball Classic. In addition, Castilla worked as a special assistant coach for the Rockies from 2012-15.

Twenty-six years ago today, the Braves signed Castilla, a player who would eventually become the Mexican leader in runs scored, hits, doubles, and homeruns. Not bad for a guy who was "nothing special."