When Atlanta allowed Matt Diaz to leave following the 2010 season, I had some mixed feelings. I had grown to be quite fond of the guy we at Chopnation had nicknamed Magellan for his often strange ways of tracking down a flyball to left. That said, for the money that Diaz could command, the results needed to be higher than Diaz had been able to muster in 2010 when he hit just .250 with a .319 wOBA and 0.5 WAR. Atlanta rightfully non-tendered him, jettisoning him the same way they did Kelly Johnson. Matty had some good years with the Braves, including three seasons of 2.0 WAR or better, and rightfully built a reputation as a left-handed pitching masher, but he had been paid $2.55M in 2010 and in arbitration, chances are he would have gotten a raise despite a bad season.
Diaz went on to sign with the Pirates for 2 years and $4M. Good for him.
And then, Frank Wren screwed me and brought him back in a trade last August 31st for some unGodly reason. The Pirates chipped in some cash and the Braves would send pitcher Eliecer Cardenas to the Pirates a month later. For what it's worth, Cardenas hasn't played this year because of injuries and isn't really a prospect to get too upset about losing.
However, with Diaz back in the fold, the Braves had their left-handed pitching masher. Yay! Except, one thing. Diaz wasn't hitting lefties with authority. I mean, he hit .295 against them last year and while that is nice, only seven of his 32 hits went for extra bases. A .692 OPS with no speed/defense does not make for a good platoon partner. The previous year, he had hit .273 with an .830 OPS against lefties. When you only have one skill that sets you apart from your co-workers, you better deliver that skill and Diaz was failing to do so last year. Still, Wren got him because I guess (hope?) that John Schuerholtz told him about how Diaz was such a find all those years ago.
Diaz was given the opportunity to redeem himself this year and wouldn't ya know it...he's not. He's hitting .275 with a .754 OPS against lefties. That's all well and good and everything, but often, the only reason he finds himself in the lineup is because the guy on the mound has the nerve to throw with his left arm. Diaz is supposed to punish that guy. A .754 OPS ain't cutting it.
Having built a reputation, it's sometimes hard to shed that reputation whether it's bad or good. Fans on facebook, Yahoo, DOB's blog, Atlantabraves.com, and a few mental hospitals in the greater Atlanta area still swear that Diaz destroys lefties. He crushes them! He pulverizes the shit out of them! He grinds up their bones!
But the results...they just aren't there. And Atlanta is suffering. Diaz against righties is a sad, depressing tale full of disappointment so the only saving grace is that he can destroy those tough lefties. So far this season, Diaz is 3 of 28 against righties. The dirty little secret is that you can try to protect Diaz, but eventually, he will face a righty and he's simply not suited to take on that task. It's like Eric Hinske against lefties. If you could bring both of them into a lab and mold them together, you might have a crappy bench player, but at least you wouldn't be holding up two spots on the bench for guys who supposedly have the exact same skill (severe platoon splits in their favor), but aren't producing.
Atlanta's bench has been a monumental failure this season and bringing back Diaz last year is looking like a mistake on Wren's behalf. Something needs to be done about the black hole of WilDiSke. Of the three, only Hinske can even say he has produced in the last three seasons. Start with Diaz and Wilson and go from there, Frank. Your team needs your wheeling and dealin.'
Please, Frank. You're our only hope.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Taking a Break from Jonny
There are some rumors stemming from a Luis Avilan tweet that the lefty will be headed to Atlanta and likely will be replacing Jonny Venters. It would be cool if it was Avilan since he was one of my "Random Prospects" and would be the first of them to get the Walk-Off Walk bump. Avilan had just joined the Gwinnett Braves today after the Atlanta cut D.J. Carrasco and needed a spot in AA for Ben Sheets. On the year, Avilan was 3-6 for Mississippi with a 3.23 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and a 1.8 K/BB ratio while appearing in 16 games and 12 starts. In his last outing on July 1st, he struck out five over five scoreless, though he walked four.
However, this is more about Jonny Venters. The left-hander appeared in his 40th game tonight, which is pretty absurd considering the quality of his pitching this season. After Randall Delgado gave up a double to open the seventh, Fredi Gonzalez pulled the righty for Venters. I could write a thesis on Fredi's inability to manage his starters properly and give his bullpen the best chance for success, but I haven't found the time just yet. Venters induces a grounder that puts Darwin Barney, who doubled, on third with one out. It was 2-1 at the time. That's about when shit got real. Wild pitch to score Barney, Jeff "Joe Don" Baker homers, and a grounder before Fredi, apparently feeling spry, removes Venters to led Chad Durbin finish the frame.
The homer given up to Baker was Venters's sixth homer allowed this year. In his first two seasons, while pitching in about 7,000 games, Venters had allowed all of three homers. We all know that Venters lives on his heavy sinker. He's still inducing about 61% grounders, but when they get the bat under the ball, they are driving it to undisclosed locations. To put it in another way...Venters has allowed 14 flyballs all season and almost half have left the reservation. It is enough to wrinkle someone's brain.
It's mind boggling. Venters has essentially lost confidence in his best pitch and has attempted to supplement a third pitch that he rarely utilized in '10-'11. Last year, nearly 93% of pitches he threw were classified by his PITCHf/x as either his sinker or his slider. Hell, 73% of the time, he was throwing sinkers. The other 7% were called straight fastballs, unknown, and a super small percent of the time...0.1%...Venters threw his ugly changeup. That was down from about 1% in 2010. He averaged a little less than an 8 mph difference between the two and was probably his third or fourth pitch from his minor league starting days. However, this season, likely because he has no confidence in his sinker since it's being bashed, Venters has thrown 7.2% changeups to absolutely no success. And the odd thing is that Venters velocity is a tick down from 94-95 mph to 93-94 mph, but his changeup is a bit faster. So, now there is a difference of about 6 mph. I don't know if this paragraphs is all that meaningful, but it could be something. Or nothing.
Regardless, Venters wFB (which does include sinkers/straight fastballs) last season was a nasty 11.9. His slider is downright evil as well. However, his wFB this season has almost gone completely the other way at -9.8. His slider is still okay, but probably because people aren't in 0-2 and 1-2 counts where his slider become unhittable, the pitch has lost its evil factor.
Add in a line drive rate that is 10% higher this season than last and just about anytime a player can put the ball into the air, he has a 50/50 shot at going yard and Venters has been a train-wreck to watch this season. Some of it is bad luck. A .432 BABIP stands out worse rational thought on Fox News. His xFIP is pretty much in line with his previous numbers and really, his K and BB rate fairly in line with his career norms. However, whether it's mechanical, injury, an arm that is overly fatigued from two abusive seasons, or he's betting on the other team, Venters has been a disaster for the Braves this season. If the news is what it seems to be and he's headed down, hopefully, it will jump-start him. Otherwise, Atlanta will be up a feces-filled creek.
However, this is more about Jonny Venters. The left-hander appeared in his 40th game tonight, which is pretty absurd considering the quality of his pitching this season. After Randall Delgado gave up a double to open the seventh, Fredi Gonzalez pulled the righty for Venters. I could write a thesis on Fredi's inability to manage his starters properly and give his bullpen the best chance for success, but I haven't found the time just yet. Venters induces a grounder that puts Darwin Barney, who doubled, on third with one out. It was 2-1 at the time. That's about when shit got real. Wild pitch to score Barney, Jeff "Joe Don" Baker homers, and a grounder before Fredi, apparently feeling spry, removes Venters to led Chad Durbin finish the frame.
The homer given up to Baker was Venters's sixth homer allowed this year. In his first two seasons, while pitching in about 7,000 games, Venters had allowed all of three homers. We all know that Venters lives on his heavy sinker. He's still inducing about 61% grounders, but when they get the bat under the ball, they are driving it to undisclosed locations. To put it in another way...Venters has allowed 14 flyballs all season and almost half have left the reservation. It is enough to wrinkle someone's brain.
It's mind boggling. Venters has essentially lost confidence in his best pitch and has attempted to supplement a third pitch that he rarely utilized in '10-'11. Last year, nearly 93% of pitches he threw were classified by his PITCHf/x as either his sinker or his slider. Hell, 73% of the time, he was throwing sinkers. The other 7% were called straight fastballs, unknown, and a super small percent of the time...0.1%...Venters threw his ugly changeup. That was down from about 1% in 2010. He averaged a little less than an 8 mph difference between the two and was probably his third or fourth pitch from his minor league starting days. However, this season, likely because he has no confidence in his sinker since it's being bashed, Venters has thrown 7.2% changeups to absolutely no success. And the odd thing is that Venters velocity is a tick down from 94-95 mph to 93-94 mph, but his changeup is a bit faster. So, now there is a difference of about 6 mph. I don't know if this paragraphs is all that meaningful, but it could be something. Or nothing.
Regardless, Venters wFB (which does include sinkers/straight fastballs) last season was a nasty 11.9. His slider is downright evil as well. However, his wFB this season has almost gone completely the other way at -9.8. His slider is still okay, but probably because people aren't in 0-2 and 1-2 counts where his slider become unhittable, the pitch has lost its evil factor.
Add in a line drive rate that is 10% higher this season than last and just about anytime a player can put the ball into the air, he has a 50/50 shot at going yard and Venters has been a train-wreck to watch this season. Some of it is bad luck. A .432 BABIP stands out worse rational thought on Fox News. His xFIP is pretty much in line with his previous numbers and really, his K and BB rate fairly in line with his career norms. However, whether it's mechanical, injury, an arm that is overly fatigued from two abusive seasons, or he's betting on the other team, Venters has been a disaster for the Braves this season. If the news is what it seems to be and he's headed down, hopefully, it will jump-start him. Otherwise, Atlanta will be up a feces-filled creek.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Howdy Ben Sheets!
If you haven't heard by now, Atlanta has agreed to a minor league contract with former Brewers workhorse, Ben Sheets. The Braves were one of the few teams that watched a simulated five-inning stint Sheets threw at Georgia Tech last week and saw enough to believe that it was time to act. Sheets' agent and Braves GM Frank Wren agreed to the deal Saturday night and after Sheets passed the physical today, the comeback attempt was on. Sheets was hitting the low 90's in his simulated game, which is encouraging because that's where he has lived his whole career.
Sheets broke into the majors just two seasons after he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft. He rocketed up the ladder, recording 13 starts in AAA as a 21-22 year-old in his second professional season and started 25 games in the bigs in 2001 as the Brewers' future ace. After three seasons of harnessing his ability, Sheets broke out in 2004, striking out 264 batters for the Brewers in a worrisome 237 innings. When people ask why pitchers get babied, Sheets can often be cited as a cautionary tale. Three seasons of 215 innings and Sheets as a workhorse was done.
He would miss considerable time over the next three seasons, never starting more than 24 games at the MLB level or pitching over 160 innings. He was able to turn the corner some in 2008, but seeking out a playoff run, the Brewers rode Sheets and C.C. Sabathia into the ground down the stretch. While they made the playoffs, the damage was done. Sheets threw a ridiculous amount of curveballs in 2008...33% of his pitches were curveballs, in fact. Amazingly, that's the second most curveballs by percentage he had thrown in his career. Sheets was diagnosed with a tear in his right elbow and missed the playoffs.
After missing 2009, Sheets caught on with the A's in 2010. The results weren't so pretty. The 4.71 FIP he suffered through was the second worst of his career (have to go back to his rookie year for the worst). His K/9 rate tumbled while his walk rate went higher than ever before. In late July, his season was over after a torn flexor in his right elbow that required Tommy John.
But he's back...what can the Braves expect? Not really sure. Sheets will begin a minor league stint with Mississippi soon and is expected to make a couple of starts. If he starts getting back to his Brewers days, the Braves have acquired a big arm for the playoff push. If he looks like the guy who was fairly abysmal in 20 starts with the A's in 2009, did Atlanta waste too much time putting hope in a guy who is done rather than bring in an impact starter?
Provided they aren't putting too much into the hope that Sheets comes back at his 2004-2008 self, the Braves acquired a guy for pennies that can provide pretty much anything they may have gotten in trades for the likes of Joe Saunders or Jason Vargas. They can continue to seek out an impact arm like Zack Greinke and see if things work for bringing him in with an extension. If Sheets puts up a 1.20 WHIP, keeps the BB/9 rate under 3 and the K/BB rate over 2, the Braves are getting massive bang for their buck.
Can't say anything bad about this pickup provided that it does nothing to keep Wren from continuing to try to work a deal for an impact arm.
Sheets broke into the majors just two seasons after he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft. He rocketed up the ladder, recording 13 starts in AAA as a 21-22 year-old in his second professional season and started 25 games in the bigs in 2001 as the Brewers' future ace. After three seasons of harnessing his ability, Sheets broke out in 2004, striking out 264 batters for the Brewers in a worrisome 237 innings. When people ask why pitchers get babied, Sheets can often be cited as a cautionary tale. Three seasons of 215 innings and Sheets as a workhorse was done.
He would miss considerable time over the next three seasons, never starting more than 24 games at the MLB level or pitching over 160 innings. He was able to turn the corner some in 2008, but seeking out a playoff run, the Brewers rode Sheets and C.C. Sabathia into the ground down the stretch. While they made the playoffs, the damage was done. Sheets threw a ridiculous amount of curveballs in 2008...33% of his pitches were curveballs, in fact. Amazingly, that's the second most curveballs by percentage he had thrown in his career. Sheets was diagnosed with a tear in his right elbow and missed the playoffs.
After missing 2009, Sheets caught on with the A's in 2010. The results weren't so pretty. The 4.71 FIP he suffered through was the second worst of his career (have to go back to his rookie year for the worst). His K/9 rate tumbled while his walk rate went higher than ever before. In late July, his season was over after a torn flexor in his right elbow that required Tommy John.
But he's back...what can the Braves expect? Not really sure. Sheets will begin a minor league stint with Mississippi soon and is expected to make a couple of starts. If he starts getting back to his Brewers days, the Braves have acquired a big arm for the playoff push. If he looks like the guy who was fairly abysmal in 20 starts with the A's in 2009, did Atlanta waste too much time putting hope in a guy who is done rather than bring in an impact starter?
Provided they aren't putting too much into the hope that Sheets comes back at his 2004-2008 self, the Braves acquired a guy for pennies that can provide pretty much anything they may have gotten in trades for the likes of Joe Saunders or Jason Vargas. They can continue to seek out an impact arm like Zack Greinke and see if things work for bringing him in with an extension. If Sheets puts up a 1.20 WHIP, keeps the BB/9 rate under 3 and the K/BB rate over 2, the Braves are getting massive bang for their buck.
Can't say anything bad about this pickup provided that it does nothing to keep Wren from continuing to try to work a deal for an impact arm.
Saturday, June 30, 2012
The Best (and Worst) of June
Hey, cool, I made it a month. The Braves finished off a 13-12 June with a 7-5 victory against the Nationals in the oven known as Turner Field today. Despite the win over the revered Stephen Strasburg, Atlanta remains one of baseball's disappointing clubs. After opening the season with four consecutive loses, the Braves righted the ship and were 14-8 after 22 games, but since April 29th, Atlanta is a weak 27-28. June started with a 6-1 record, but they only were able to win seven of their remaining 18 games of the month.
Regardless, with the month over, it's time to look at who made the best of a mediocre month and who helped drag Atlanta down.
Top Rookie of the Month - Andrelton Simmons - Simmons arrived on June 1st after a superb run in Mississippi to replace the struggling Tyler Pastornicky and has only been awesome. He's hit .333 this month with an RBI today, Simmons actually drove in the second most runs this month with 14. His ISO has been around .200 for the month with six doubles, a triple, and three homers. Oh, and by the way, he's damn awesome defensively. While he has made a couple of careless mistakes, he posted a 5.9 UZR. Now, obviously, defensive statistics lose whatever value they may have in a shortened sample size, but if you have watched even a couple of Braves' games this month, you notice how much of a lift his glove, range, and arm have provided Atlanta so far. In addition, when you compare him to Pastornicky (-12.3 UZR, still worst in among MLB shortstops), what Simmons has provided is even more notable.
Worst Pitcher of the Month - Mike Minor - It's becoming a recurring theme every time the lefty pitches. While two of the four runs charged to him today scored after he left the game, Minor continues to struggle to reach the potential that made him the seventh overall selection a few years ago. I do think that Minor, at times, is a victim of bad luck and sometimes, gets killed by his manager's quick hook. But the results simply haven't been there for Minor. His ERA actually was sitting under 4.00 for the month coming in today's game, but his FIP (5.84) and xFIP (5.03) showed a clearer sign of how he was performing. For a guy who essentially made it clear that the Braves should pitch him or trade him, you'd like to see more than a HR/9 rate hovering around 2.0 and a walk rate climbing toward 4.0 per nine. This second half could go a long way to help the Braves decide if Minor is closer to the prospect they thought they were drafting or closer to Kyle Davies and Jo-Jo Reyes.
Others - Tommy Hanson, Eric O'Flaherty
Worst Position Player of the Month - Brian McCann - At a certain point, McCann has to really start to put it together, right? After an 0-for-4 today, McCann hit a miserable .193 for the month with an ISO nearly .100. There was a brief point there when we thought McCann was finally coming out of season-long slump when he strung together three consecutive two-hit games with a pair of homers June 12-15th, but since that day, McCann is 7 of 49. When people start asking if McCann is a player the Braves should extend, they'd like to see some performance. McCann has been a weak point for this offense almost all season, but eventually he has to start putting it together. His .297 BABIP will get closer to his career .357. I hope.
Others - Matt Diaz, Eric Hinske
Best Pitcher of the Month - Craig Kimbrel - Today, Kimbrel ended his month with a pair of nasty sliders to put away a couple of Nationals hitters. If you ever want a picture on domination, Kimbrel provided it in June. For the month, he faced 36 batters. THREE of them reached base. One of them homered, another singled and stole two bases, and the other was wiped out on a double play. 20 of the 36 struck out. Oh, and he nailed down all eight save attempts. Suffice it to say, he was pretty damn awesome.
Others - Tim Hudson
Best Position Player of the Month - Jason Heyward - This was oddly a tougher choice than I assumed it would be. With the month that Andrelton Simmons had, he could easily have taken this from him, but you cannot deny what Heyward did in June. Heyward hit nearly .350 with a slugging percentage approaching .700. He's earned a spot in the top three in the lineup and it seems unlikely that Heyward won't stay there if he continues to come close to the month he had in June.
Others - Andrelton Simmons, Michael Bourn
A few fun monthly notes...
Regardless, with the month over, it's time to look at who made the best of a mediocre month and who helped drag Atlanta down.
Top Rookie of the Month - Andrelton Simmons - Simmons arrived on June 1st after a superb run in Mississippi to replace the struggling Tyler Pastornicky and has only been awesome. He's hit .333 this month with an RBI today, Simmons actually drove in the second most runs this month with 14. His ISO has been around .200 for the month with six doubles, a triple, and three homers. Oh, and by the way, he's damn awesome defensively. While he has made a couple of careless mistakes, he posted a 5.9 UZR. Now, obviously, defensive statistics lose whatever value they may have in a shortened sample size, but if you have watched even a couple of Braves' games this month, you notice how much of a lift his glove, range, and arm have provided Atlanta so far. In addition, when you compare him to Pastornicky (-12.3 UZR, still worst in among MLB shortstops), what Simmons has provided is even more notable.
Worst Pitcher of the Month - Mike Minor - It's becoming a recurring theme every time the lefty pitches. While two of the four runs charged to him today scored after he left the game, Minor continues to struggle to reach the potential that made him the seventh overall selection a few years ago. I do think that Minor, at times, is a victim of bad luck and sometimes, gets killed by his manager's quick hook. But the results simply haven't been there for Minor. His ERA actually was sitting under 4.00 for the month coming in today's game, but his FIP (5.84) and xFIP (5.03) showed a clearer sign of how he was performing. For a guy who essentially made it clear that the Braves should pitch him or trade him, you'd like to see more than a HR/9 rate hovering around 2.0 and a walk rate climbing toward 4.0 per nine. This second half could go a long way to help the Braves decide if Minor is closer to the prospect they thought they were drafting or closer to Kyle Davies and Jo-Jo Reyes.
Others - Tommy Hanson, Eric O'Flaherty
Worst Position Player of the Month - Brian McCann - At a certain point, McCann has to really start to put it together, right? After an 0-for-4 today, McCann hit a miserable .193 for the month with an ISO nearly .100. There was a brief point there when we thought McCann was finally coming out of season-long slump when he strung together three consecutive two-hit games with a pair of homers June 12-15th, but since that day, McCann is 7 of 49. When people start asking if McCann is a player the Braves should extend, they'd like to see some performance. McCann has been a weak point for this offense almost all season, but eventually he has to start putting it together. His .297 BABIP will get closer to his career .357. I hope.
Others - Matt Diaz, Eric Hinske
Best Pitcher of the Month - Craig Kimbrel - Today, Kimbrel ended his month with a pair of nasty sliders to put away a couple of Nationals hitters. If you ever want a picture on domination, Kimbrel provided it in June. For the month, he faced 36 batters. THREE of them reached base. One of them homered, another singled and stole two bases, and the other was wiped out on a double play. 20 of the 36 struck out. Oh, and he nailed down all eight save attempts. Suffice it to say, he was pretty damn awesome.
Others - Tim Hudson
Best Position Player of the Month - Jason Heyward - This was oddly a tougher choice than I assumed it would be. With the month that Andrelton Simmons had, he could easily have taken this from him, but you cannot deny what Heyward did in June. Heyward hit nearly .350 with a slugging percentage approaching .700. He's earned a spot in the top three in the lineup and it seems unlikely that Heyward won't stay there if he continues to come close to the month he had in June.
Others - Andrelton Simmons, Michael Bourn
A few fun monthly notes...
- Michael Bourn stole his 7th and 8th bases of the month...four more than the rest of the team.
- Chad Durbin appeared in 15 of 25 games in June.
- The only bench player who had a remotely good month (and he had a great one) was David Ross who went 9 for 23. Combined, the usual bench like Eric Hinske, Jack Wilson, Juan Francisco, and Matt Diaz went 17 for 100.
Friday, June 29, 2012
The All-Stars
I will be completely forthright with this.
I hate the All-Star Game. I hate the idea that it "matters," I hate the fact that every team gets a player, I hate that fans stuff ballots for their guy, and I hate the choices that managers typically make for who gets to go and who doesn't. Too often, guys aren't selected for what they have done in that season. Case in point..."let's send Chipper to the All-Star Game!" This is an often used rallying point and it's absurd to me. Chase Headley is second in WAR among NL 3B with 3.2. He's not a power hitter, but he has played stellar defense, gets on base, and has enough pop to get into scoring position in a hurry. Chipper's a 1.5 WAR player, which ranks sixth, and three months into the season, Larry has played just 42 games. So, please, official Braves facebook page...knock it off with your #votechipper campaign.
But because this is a Braves blog and the All-Star Rosters will be announced Sunday, here are the Braves that should be in the All-Star Game. For what it's worth, I don't really care about voting results, every team gets an All-Star, and so on.
2B - Dan Uggla - Though he has been more 2011 1st Half Uggla and less Uggla Smash lately, the results favor Dan Uggla to back up Aaron Hill as the top two 2B in the NL this season. Uggla leads NL 2B's with 11 homers, 51 RS, and ranks second in RBI. More notable is the 15.9% walk rate he's sporting, 2 points higher than his previous best. He's striking out at a career pace as well so this patient approach has been a bit of a double-edged sword. In addition, his slugging is the worst of his career and he's in danger of missing out on 30 homers for the seventh consecutive season. In the field, call it a fluke, but Uggla is posting his best UZR/150 since his rookie season. While I don't believe he will continue with that all season, it's irrelevant in trying to find this season's All-Stars and Uggla is a deserving one. That said, you can go with Brandon Phillips and make a valid argument.
LF - Martin Prado - If there is likely to be a major snub, it could come in the form of Martin Prado, though the guy in right field could also be snubbed. Prado is having a wonderful bounceback season after last year's troubles. He continues to display tremendous defense in left, at third, and even in cameos at first. But you cannot sleep on the job he is doing at the plate. While Ryan Braun is the obvious better play and Melky Cabrera won't be held out doing what he's doing (still a douche), Prado's .380 OBP and .370 wOBA have been huge catalysts in pushing offense on what has been, at times, a punchless lineup. He's embraced the speed factor, swiping nine bases compared to 13 bases before this season. Prado could be the manager's pick to fill out the team like Omar Infante was a couple of years ago, but Prado deserves his spot.
CF - Michael Bourn - When talking up Trevor Bauer, MLB Network's Mitch Williams used footage of Bourn swinging through one of Bauer's pitches for a strikeout and added "and that's a guy (Bourn) that never strikes out." Well, he does nearly 20% of the time. And that criticism is all I can use against Bourn, who is having a monster season as a Brave. With two hits tonight, he could reach the century mark. He's swiped 20 bases, scored 50 runs, and muscled seven homers after hitting just seven the last three seasons. While I think he could do a better job getting on base and he does K a shitload for a leadoff guy, Bourn (and the guy who usually has followed him) have given the guys behind them a wealth of opportunities to accumulate RBIs. His defense in center isn't even close to being matched by anybody in the NL.
RF - Jason Heyward - An All-Star his rookie season, Heyward should return in his third year as one of the best young talents in the game. Heyward started off good, slumped in May, and has been a beast in June. If he continues, we may remember 2012 as the year Heyward started to figure it out. He's passed all RF's in WAR with 3.1 and is truly the whole package. 10 steals, 12 dingers, a .370 wOBA, and a 7.7 UZR/150. Oh, and I think he's really only scratching the surface. Expect him to become more patient and hit even more homers as his experience grows. And for those who have either compared Heyward to Jeff Francoeur or called Heyward a bust...hey, I'm not the type to say "I told you so"...
P - Craig Kimbrel - How awesome has Kimbrel been this season? When he gives up a run, we start being concerned that the world is off its axis. When he gives up a homer, we search the skies for an alien invasion. Kimbrel has continued to just get better. After a superb rookie year, Kimbrel has followed it up with a ridiculous first half of the 2012 season. He has posted a 1.23 FIP in 29 games. To put that number in context...Arodys Chapman is second among NL relievers in FIP with a 1.77 FIP, or essentially a half-run higher. Kimbrel's 14.9 K/9 rate is second to Chapman and as is his 1.4 WAR. His 8.9 weighted fastball is second to Sean Burnett's 9.9. His 3.4 wCB is third to David Hernandez and teammate Kris Medlen. Kimbrel is simply dominating at an unGodly pace right now which has been all the more important because the rest of the bullpen has been a major disappointment, save Medlen and Chad Durbin (for the most part).
There you have it...the five Braves that should be headed to the All-Star Game. Andrelton Simmons and Brandon Beachy might have been included, but we all know why they won't be going.
I hate the All-Star Game. I hate the idea that it "matters," I hate the fact that every team gets a player, I hate that fans stuff ballots for their guy, and I hate the choices that managers typically make for who gets to go and who doesn't. Too often, guys aren't selected for what they have done in that season. Case in point..."let's send Chipper to the All-Star Game!" This is an often used rallying point and it's absurd to me. Chase Headley is second in WAR among NL 3B with 3.2. He's not a power hitter, but he has played stellar defense, gets on base, and has enough pop to get into scoring position in a hurry. Chipper's a 1.5 WAR player, which ranks sixth, and three months into the season, Larry has played just 42 games. So, please, official Braves facebook page...knock it off with your #votechipper campaign.
But because this is a Braves blog and the All-Star Rosters will be announced Sunday, here are the Braves that should be in the All-Star Game. For what it's worth, I don't really care about voting results, every team gets an All-Star, and so on.
2B - Dan Uggla - Though he has been more 2011 1st Half Uggla and less Uggla Smash lately, the results favor Dan Uggla to back up Aaron Hill as the top two 2B in the NL this season. Uggla leads NL 2B's with 11 homers, 51 RS, and ranks second in RBI. More notable is the 15.9% walk rate he's sporting, 2 points higher than his previous best. He's striking out at a career pace as well so this patient approach has been a bit of a double-edged sword. In addition, his slugging is the worst of his career and he's in danger of missing out on 30 homers for the seventh consecutive season. In the field, call it a fluke, but Uggla is posting his best UZR/150 since his rookie season. While I don't believe he will continue with that all season, it's irrelevant in trying to find this season's All-Stars and Uggla is a deserving one. That said, you can go with Brandon Phillips and make a valid argument.
LF - Martin Prado - If there is likely to be a major snub, it could come in the form of Martin Prado, though the guy in right field could also be snubbed. Prado is having a wonderful bounceback season after last year's troubles. He continues to display tremendous defense in left, at third, and even in cameos at first. But you cannot sleep on the job he is doing at the plate. While Ryan Braun is the obvious better play and Melky Cabrera won't be held out doing what he's doing (still a douche), Prado's .380 OBP and .370 wOBA have been huge catalysts in pushing offense on what has been, at times, a punchless lineup. He's embraced the speed factor, swiping nine bases compared to 13 bases before this season. Prado could be the manager's pick to fill out the team like Omar Infante was a couple of years ago, but Prado deserves his spot.
CF - Michael Bourn - When talking up Trevor Bauer, MLB Network's Mitch Williams used footage of Bourn swinging through one of Bauer's pitches for a strikeout and added "and that's a guy (Bourn) that never strikes out." Well, he does nearly 20% of the time. And that criticism is all I can use against Bourn, who is having a monster season as a Brave. With two hits tonight, he could reach the century mark. He's swiped 20 bases, scored 50 runs, and muscled seven homers after hitting just seven the last three seasons. While I think he could do a better job getting on base and he does K a shitload for a leadoff guy, Bourn (and the guy who usually has followed him) have given the guys behind them a wealth of opportunities to accumulate RBIs. His defense in center isn't even close to being matched by anybody in the NL.
RF - Jason Heyward - An All-Star his rookie season, Heyward should return in his third year as one of the best young talents in the game. Heyward started off good, slumped in May, and has been a beast in June. If he continues, we may remember 2012 as the year Heyward started to figure it out. He's passed all RF's in WAR with 3.1 and is truly the whole package. 10 steals, 12 dingers, a .370 wOBA, and a 7.7 UZR/150. Oh, and I think he's really only scratching the surface. Expect him to become more patient and hit even more homers as his experience grows. And for those who have either compared Heyward to Jeff Francoeur or called Heyward a bust...hey, I'm not the type to say "I told you so"...
P - Craig Kimbrel - How awesome has Kimbrel been this season? When he gives up a run, we start being concerned that the world is off its axis. When he gives up a homer, we search the skies for an alien invasion. Kimbrel has continued to just get better. After a superb rookie year, Kimbrel has followed it up with a ridiculous first half of the 2012 season. He has posted a 1.23 FIP in 29 games. To put that number in context...Arodys Chapman is second among NL relievers in FIP with a 1.77 FIP, or essentially a half-run higher. Kimbrel's 14.9 K/9 rate is second to Chapman and as is his 1.4 WAR. His 8.9 weighted fastball is second to Sean Burnett's 9.9. His 3.4 wCB is third to David Hernandez and teammate Kris Medlen. Kimbrel is simply dominating at an unGodly pace right now which has been all the more important because the rest of the bullpen has been a major disappointment, save Medlen and Chad Durbin (for the most part).
There you have it...the five Braves that should be headed to the All-Star Game. Andrelton Simmons and Brandon Beachy might have been included, but we all know why they won't be going.
Random Prospect of the Day - Matthew Kennelly
Back to the offensive random prospects, helped out by a Random.org number generator, and I land on yet another backup catcher type. For what it's worth, the focus with this column is to not have a love affair with super prospects, but shine light on maybe some guys most Braves fans have never heard of. They might be journeyman, long-shots, or never-will-be's, but the majority of players who make up the system are guys you won't ever be on any Top 20 prospect list. For previous versions of this column, click here and here.
What a handsome devil! My wife would just love you. Granted, you are a catcher and I'm not sure my wife has ever seen a catcher she didn't love. Still, congrats on not being ugly. The guy to the left is Matthew Kennelly, a Braves farmhand since he was 16. What makes his story a little unique from the typical one is that Kennelly was signed out of Australia, where he was a member of the 2006 team that played for the World Junior Championship.
Kennelly finally made his stateside debut after he turned 18, appearing in 39 games for the Gulf Coast League's squad in rookie ball. The results were not very pretty as Kennelly hit just .215 with a .578 OPS. Kennelly continued on, joining Danville the following season (2008) and appearing in 44 games for the D-Braves sandwiched around a late July trip up to Rome where he played in ten games before coming back. With Danville, Kennelly hit .246 and showed zero plate patience with 8 walks to 37 K's. His 13 extra-base hits included four homers, but the Braves probably had hoped for more than a .650 OPS. In 10 games between late July and early August with Rome, Kennelly went 16 for 35 (.457) with 5 2B's. Between the two stops, he gunned down 57% of would-be basestealers, dominating that part of the game.
Kennelly would bounce between Rome and Myrtle Beach the following season, playing in 46 games with Rome and just one more game with the Pelicans. His 2009 stats didn't give the Braves much to be excited about, though his walk rate improved dramatically. He obliterated his previous high of ten walks with 27, but OPS'd under .600 between the two stops. His numbers for the Pelicans were even worse as he OPS'd .499 when he played there. After looking like a Mini-Pudge Rodriguez with his arm the previous season, his follow-up campaign wasn't nearly as good as he threw out just 20%. He was on the provisional roster for Team Australia's 2009 World Baseball Classic team, but wasn't selected to join his mates (hehe).
He spent 2010 as a the primary starter at catcher for Myrtle Beach, spending the entire minor league season there and getting into 76 games during the Pelicans' final year with the Braves. He improved his walk rate slightly and set a new high with seven homers, but again only hit .226 while throwing out just 28% of would-be basestealers. After the season, he returned home and played in the Australian Baseball League, hitting .306 for Perth, where he played alongside his brother Tim, who is a utility player in the Phillies organization.
If you aren't going to produce offensively, become a catcher because regardless, you are getting promotions. Kennelly went to Mississippi to open 2011, though he would quickly be needed for an injury replacement in Gwinnett and played in two games there before returning to Mississippi to complete the season. Kennelly played in 74 games and had his best year stateside since 2008. He hit .262 with a .675 OPS. He also went 2 for 7 with Gwinnett in his brief time there. Again, he played for Perth in the ABL after the season and hit six homers in just 45 games with an OPS topping .800 so the value of these numbers aren't high.
This season, he has hit to the tune of .210 for Mississippi while backing up Christian Bethancourt. He's in the process of walking more than he has struck out (15 to 14), though he has once again displayed zero power. He also played in his first games away from behind the back of the dish, getting a game at first and two at DH (how bad is your offense when Kennelly is DHing?).
Overall, Kennelly remains an organizational guy who lacks the potential that made Braeden Schlehuber a high draft choice or the potential that has made Bethancourt such a high reward talent. Kennelly might head to Gwinnett next year to caddy Bethancourt or might back up Schlehuber at Mississippi. Or he might just be released. Likely to be included as a World Baseball Classic possible participant for the 2013 version of the event, Kennelly is a long-shot to ever sniff a major league roster.
Though, hey, J.C. Boscan has been in the majors each of the last two seasons.
Kennelly finally made his stateside debut after he turned 18, appearing in 39 games for the Gulf Coast League's squad in rookie ball. The results were not very pretty as Kennelly hit just .215 with a .578 OPS. Kennelly continued on, joining Danville the following season (2008) and appearing in 44 games for the D-Braves sandwiched around a late July trip up to Rome where he played in ten games before coming back. With Danville, Kennelly hit .246 and showed zero plate patience with 8 walks to 37 K's. His 13 extra-base hits included four homers, but the Braves probably had hoped for more than a .650 OPS. In 10 games between late July and early August with Rome, Kennelly went 16 for 35 (.457) with 5 2B's. Between the two stops, he gunned down 57% of would-be basestealers, dominating that part of the game.
Kennelly would bounce between Rome and Myrtle Beach the following season, playing in 46 games with Rome and just one more game with the Pelicans. His 2009 stats didn't give the Braves much to be excited about, though his walk rate improved dramatically. He obliterated his previous high of ten walks with 27, but OPS'd under .600 between the two stops. His numbers for the Pelicans were even worse as he OPS'd .499 when he played there. After looking like a Mini-Pudge Rodriguez with his arm the previous season, his follow-up campaign wasn't nearly as good as he threw out just 20%. He was on the provisional roster for Team Australia's 2009 World Baseball Classic team, but wasn't selected to join his mates (hehe).
He spent 2010 as a the primary starter at catcher for Myrtle Beach, spending the entire minor league season there and getting into 76 games during the Pelicans' final year with the Braves. He improved his walk rate slightly and set a new high with seven homers, but again only hit .226 while throwing out just 28% of would-be basestealers. After the season, he returned home and played in the Australian Baseball League, hitting .306 for Perth, where he played alongside his brother Tim, who is a utility player in the Phillies organization.
If you aren't going to produce offensively, become a catcher because regardless, you are getting promotions. Kennelly went to Mississippi to open 2011, though he would quickly be needed for an injury replacement in Gwinnett and played in two games there before returning to Mississippi to complete the season. Kennelly played in 74 games and had his best year stateside since 2008. He hit .262 with a .675 OPS. He also went 2 for 7 with Gwinnett in his brief time there. Again, he played for Perth in the ABL after the season and hit six homers in just 45 games with an OPS topping .800 so the value of these numbers aren't high.
This season, he has hit to the tune of .210 for Mississippi while backing up Christian Bethancourt. He's in the process of walking more than he has struck out (15 to 14), though he has once again displayed zero power. He also played in his first games away from behind the back of the dish, getting a game at first and two at DH (how bad is your offense when Kennelly is DHing?).
Overall, Kennelly remains an organizational guy who lacks the potential that made Braeden Schlehuber a high draft choice or the potential that has made Bethancourt such a high reward talent. Kennelly might head to Gwinnett next year to caddy Bethancourt or might back up Schlehuber at Mississippi. Or he might just be released. Likely to be included as a World Baseball Classic possible participant for the 2013 version of the event, Kennelly is a long-shot to ever sniff a major league roster.
Though, hey, J.C. Boscan has been in the majors each of the last two seasons.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
How Awful is Jack Wilson?
Jack Wilson just grounded out as a pinch hitter in tonight's game against the Diamondbacks. It was 2-2, the Braves were guaranteed eleven more outs, and no one was on base with the top of the lineup due up. Fredi Gonzalez goes to Jack Wilson to get a rally started.
Don't think about that idea too long or your head might explode. Jack Wilson is hitting .172 on this season in 36 games and 70 PA. Does he get on base? No - two walks. Does he hit for power? No - 1 2B, 1 3B. Oh, so he's still an amazing defender, right? Nope - negative UZR over the last three seasons with a -13.1 UZR/150 this season.
I get that he had a history of being a solid defender with some outstanding seasons as a Pirate and with Tyler Pastornicky sucking it up as a major leaguer, the Braves needed a defensive option to be the Rev's caddy. Andrelton Simmons, however, has been in the majors since the beginning of June and is a better defender.
I am Jack Wilson's Utter Lack of Ability.
Listen, I know I'm not privy to all of the insides of baseball. Maybe Wilson is a great guy in the clubhouse. Maybe he plays jokes and settles differences and gives awesome backrubs. Like I said, I don't know. What I do know is that Wilson is a beyond horrible ballplayer in today's game. It's not personal, it's just a fact. Why a team wouldn't change out a bad bench player for one that might be productive is beyond me. I understand that currently, Wilson is the only Brave capable of playing shortstop behind Chipper. But that doesn't mean you can't grab a shortstop-capable backup to join the bench.
This continues to be one of my pet peeves. Don't stick with bad ballplayers with no potential. Move on and improve your team in every possible way. I understand improving the 25th man on your roster doesn't have the same importance as acquiring a starting pitcher to stabilize the top of the rotation, but regardless, the Braves need to stop carrying Wilson because...
Well, it pisses me off.
That and he's terrible. But still, it pisses me off.
Don't think about that idea too long or your head might explode. Jack Wilson is hitting .172 on this season in 36 games and 70 PA. Does he get on base? No - two walks. Does he hit for power? No - 1 2B, 1 3B. Oh, so he's still an amazing defender, right? Nope - negative UZR over the last three seasons with a -13.1 UZR/150 this season.
I get that he had a history of being a solid defender with some outstanding seasons as a Pirate and with Tyler Pastornicky sucking it up as a major leaguer, the Braves needed a defensive option to be the Rev's caddy. Andrelton Simmons, however, has been in the majors since the beginning of June and is a better defender.
I am Jack Wilson's Utter Lack of Ability.
Listen, I know I'm not privy to all of the insides of baseball. Maybe Wilson is a great guy in the clubhouse. Maybe he plays jokes and settles differences and gives awesome backrubs. Like I said, I don't know. What I do know is that Wilson is a beyond horrible ballplayer in today's game. It's not personal, it's just a fact. Why a team wouldn't change out a bad bench player for one that might be productive is beyond me. I understand that currently, Wilson is the only Brave capable of playing shortstop behind Chipper. But that doesn't mean you can't grab a shortstop-capable backup to join the bench.
This continues to be one of my pet peeves. Don't stick with bad ballplayers with no potential. Move on and improve your team in every possible way. I understand improving the 25th man on your roster doesn't have the same importance as acquiring a starting pitcher to stabilize the top of the rotation, but regardless, the Braves need to stop carrying Wilson because...
Well, it pisses me off.
That and he's terrible. But still, it pisses me off.
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